Colorado’s Economy in Context Ryan McMaken Colorado Division of Housing
Welcome message from author
This document is posted to help you gain knowledge. Please leave a comment to let me know what you think about it! Share it to your friends and learn new things together.
Transcript
8/12/2019 CREJ_mcmaken
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/crejmcmaken 1/25
Colorado’s Economy inContext
Ryan McMaken
Colorado Division of Housing
8/12/2019 CREJ_mcmaken
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/crejmcmaken 2/25
Employment and Labor Force in Colorado
2100000
2200000
2300000
2400000
2500000
2600000
2700000
2800000
2900000
J a n -
0 0
J u l -
0 0
J a n -
0 1
J u l -
0 1
J a n -
0 2
J u l -
0 2
J a n -
0 3
J u l -
0 3
J a n -
0 4
J u l -
0 4
J a n -
0 5
J u l -
0 5
J a n -
0 6
J u l -
0 6
J a n -
0 7
J u l -
0 7
J a n -
0 8
J u l -
0 8
J a n -
0 9
J u l -
0 9
J a n -
1 0
J u l -
1 0
J a n -
1 1
J u l -
1 1
J a n -
1 2
J u l -
1 2
J a n -
1 3
J u l -
1 3
labor force
employment
8/12/2019 CREJ_mcmaken
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/crejmcmaken 3/25
Payroll Employment Growth Rates, by %
-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
J a
n - 0 7
M a y - 0 7
S e p - 0 7
J a
n - 0 8
M a y - 0 8
S e p - 0 8
J a
n - 0 9
M a y - 0 9
S e p - 0 9
J a
n - 1 0
M a y - 1 0
S e p - 1 0
J a
n - 1 1
M a y - 1 1
S e p - 1 1
J a
n - 1 2
M a y - 1 2
S e p - 1 2
J a
n - 1 3
M a y - 1 3
S e p - 1 3
Colorado
US
8/12/2019 CREJ_mcmaken
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/crejmcmaken 4/25
Metro unemployment rates in Colorado, by %
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
J a
n 0 7
M
a r 0 7
M a y 0 7
J u
l y 0 7
S e
p 0 7
N o v 0 7
J a
n 0 8
M
a r 0 8
M a y 0 8
J
u l 0 8
S e
p 0 8
N o v 0 8
J a
n 0 9
M
a r 0 9
M a y 0 9
J
u l 0 9
S e
p 0 9
N o v 0 9
J a
n 1 0
M
a r 1 0
M a y 1 0
J u
l y 1 0
S
e p t 1
N o v 1 0
J a
n 1 1
M
a r 1 1
M a y 1 1
J u
l y 1 1
S e
p 1 1
N o v 1 1
J a
n 1 2
M
a r 1 2
M a y 1 2
J
u l 1 2
S e
p 1 2
N o v 1 2
J a
n 1 3
M
a r 1 3
M a y 1 3
J
u l 1 3
S
e p t 1
N o v 1 3
Colorado Springs
Denver-Aurora
Grand Junction
Greeley
Fort Collins-Loveland
Pueblo
8/12/2019 CREJ_mcmaken
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/crejmcmaken 5/25
3-month change in index
-2
-1.5
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
J a n - 0 6
A p
r - 0 6
J u
l - 0 6
O c
t - 0 6
J a n - 0 7
A p
r - 0 7
J u
l - 0 7
O c
t - 0 7
J a n - 0 8
A p
r - 0 8
J u
l - 0 8
O c
t - 0 8
J a n - 0 9
A p
r - 0 9
J u
l - 0 9
O c
t - 0 9
J a n - 1 0
A p
r - 1 0
J u
l - 1 0
O c
t - 1 0
J a n - 1 1
A p
r - 1 1
J u
l - 1 1
O c
t - 1 1
J a n - 1 2
A p
r - 1 2
J u
l - 1 2
O c
t - 1 2
J a n - 1 3
A p
r - 1 3
J u
l - 1 3
O c
t - 1 3
Colorado
US
8/12/2019 CREJ_mcmaken
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/crejmcmaken 6/25
Bankruptcy cases filed in Colorado
0
500
1000
1500
2000
25003000
3500
4000
J a n u a r y 2 0
0 6
A p r i l 2 0
0 6
J u l y 2 0
0 6
O c t o b e r 2 0 0 6
J a n u a r y 2 0
0 7
A p r i l 2 0
0 7
J u l y 2 0
0 7
O c t o b e r 2 0 0 7
J a n u a r y 2 0
0 8
A p r i l 2 0
0 8
J u l y 2 0
0 8
O c t o b e r 2 0 0 8
J a n u a r y 2 0
0 9
A p r i l 2 0
0 9
J u l y 2 0
0 9
O c t o b e r 2 0 0 9
J a n u a r y 2 0
1 0
A p r i l 2 0
1 0
J u l y 2 0
1 0
O c t o b e r 2 0 1 0
J a n u a r y 2 0
1 1
A p r 2 0 1 1
J u l y 2 0
1 1
O c t 2 0 1 1
J a n u a r y
1 2
A p r 1 2
J u l 1 2
O c t 1 2
J a n
1 3
A p r 1 3
J u l 1 3
O c t 1 3
8/12/2019 CREJ_mcmaken
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/crejmcmaken 7/25
YOY percent change in bankruptcy filings in Colorado
-30
-20
-10
0
1020
30
40
5060
J a n
u a r y 2 0 0 8
M
a r c h 2 0 0 8
M a y 2 0 0 8
J u l y 2 0 0 8
S e p t e m b e r
N o v e m b e r
J a n
u a r y 2 0 0 9
M
a r c h 2 0 0 9
M a y 2 0 0 9
J u l y 2 0 0 9
S e p t e m b e r
N o v e m b e r
J a n
u a r y 2 0 1 0
M
a r c h 2 0 1 0
M a y 2 0 1 0
J u l y 2 0 1 0
S e p t e m b e r
N o v e m b e r
J a n
u a r y 2 0 1 1
M a r 2 0 1 1
M a y 2 0 1 1
J u l y 2 0 1 1
S e p t 2 0 1 1
N o v 1 1
J a n u a r y 1 2
M a r 1 2
M a y 1 2
J u l 1 2
S e p 1 2
N o v 1 2
J a n 1 3
M a r 1 3
M a y 1 3
J u l 1 3
S e p 1 3
8/12/2019 CREJ_mcmaken
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/crejmcmaken 8/25
New Household Formation in Colorado
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
80000
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
8/12/2019 CREJ_mcmaken
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/crejmcmaken 9/25
Annual building permit totals
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
1 9 7
9
1 9 8
0
1 9 8
1
1 9 8
2
1 9 8
3
1 9 8
4
1 9 8
5
1 9 8
6
1 9 8
7
1 9 8
8
1 9 8
9
1 9 9
0
1 9 9
1
1 9 9
2
1 9 9
3
1 9 9
4
1 9 9
5
1 9 9
6
1 9 9
7
1 9 9
8
1 9 9
9
2 0 0
0
2 0 0
1
2 0 0
2
2 0 0
3
2 0 0
4
2 0 0
5
2 0 0
6
2 0 0
7
2 0 0
8
2 0 0
9
2 0 1
0
2 0 1
1
2 0 1
2
2 0 1
3
Multifamily
Single-family
8/12/2019 CREJ_mcmaken
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/crejmcmaken 10/25
Net new units added per year
-30000
-25000
-20000
-15000
-10000
-5000
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
1 9 9
8
1 9 9
9
2 0 0
0
2 0 0
1
2 0 0
2
2 0 0
3
2 0 0
4
2 0 0
5
2 0 0
6
2 0 0
7
2 0 0
8
2 0 0
9
2 0 1
0
2 0 1
1
2 0 1
2
2 0 1
3
8/12/2019 CREJ_mcmaken
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/crejmcmaken 11/25
Proportion of all units that are multifamily units
0.000
0.050
0.100
0.150
0.200
0.250
0.300
0.350
0.400
0.450
0.500
1 9 7 9
1 9 8 0
1 9 8 1
1 9 8 2
1 9 8 3
1 9 8 4
1 9 8 5
1 9 8 6
1 9 8 7
1 9 8 8
1 9 8 9
1 9 9 0
1 9 9 1
1 9 9 2
1 9 9 3
1 9 9 4
1 9 9 5
1 9 9 6
1 9 9 7
1 9 9 8
1 9 9 9
2 0 0 0
2 0 0 1
2 0 0 2
2 0 0 3
2 0 0 4
2 0 0 5
2 0 0 6
2 0 0 7
2 0 0 8
2 0 0 9
2 0 1 0
2 0 1 1
2 0 1 2
2 0 1 3
8/12/2019 CREJ_mcmaken
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/crejmcmaken 12/25
Homeownership rate - Colo vs. US
54.0
56.0
58.0
60.0
62.0
64.0
66.0
68.0
70.0
72.0
74.0
2
0 0 5 - 1
2
0 0 5 - 2
2
0 0 5 - 3
2
0 0 5 - 4
2 0
0 6 Q 1
2 0
0 6 Q 2
2 0
0 6 Q 3
2 0
0 6 Q 4
2 0
0 7 Q 1
2 0
0 7 Q 2
2 0
0 7 Q 3
2 0
0 7 Q 4
2 0
0 8 Q 1
2 0
0 8 Q 2
2 0
0 8 Q 3
2 0
0 8 Q 4
2 0
0 9 Q 1
2 0
0 9 Q 2
2 0
0 9 Q 3
2 0
0 9 Q 4
2 0
1 0 Q 1
2 0
1 0 Q 2
2 0
1 0 Q 3
2 0
1 0 Q 4
2 0
1 1 Q 1
2 0
1 1 Q 2
2 0
1 1 Q 3
2 0
1 1 Q 4
2 0
1 2 Q 1
2 0
1 2 Q 2
2 0
1 2 Q 3
2 0
1 2 Q 4
2 0
1 3 Q 1
2 0
1 3 Q 2
2 0
1 3 Q 3
2 0
1 3 Q 4
Colo
US
Metro Den
8/12/2019 CREJ_mcmaken
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/crejmcmaken 13/25
Average rents in Colorado metros
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
0 2 q
1
0 3 q
1
0 4 q
1
0 5 q
1
0 6 q
1
0 6 q
4
0 7 q
2
0 7 q
4
0 8 q
2
0 8 q
4
0 9 q
2
0 9 q
4
1 0 q
2
1 0 q
4
1 1 q
2
1 1 q
4
1 2 q
2
1 2 q
4
1 3 q
2
1 3 q
4
Metro Den Colo Spr Ft Coll/Loveland
Grand Junct Greeley Pueblo
8/12/2019 CREJ_mcmaken
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/crejmcmaken 14/25
YOY % change in Front Range average rent
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
0 8 q 1
0 8 q 2
0 8 q 3
0 8 q 4
0 9 q 1
0 9 q 2
0 9 q 3
0 9 q 4
1 0 q 1
1 0 q 2
1 0 q 3
1 0 q 4
1 1 q 1
1 1 q 2
1 1 q 3
1 1 q 4
1 2 q 1
1 2 q 2
1 2 q 3
1 2 q 4
1 3 q 1
1 3 q 2
1 3 q 3
1 3 q 4
Denver metro
Colorado Springs
Ft Collins-Loveland
Grand Junction
Greeley
Pueblo
8/12/2019 CREJ_mcmaken
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/crejmcmaken 15/25
Denver metro multifamily vacancy rates (by %)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
0 1
q 1
0 1
q 3
0 2
q 1
0 2
q 3
0 3
q 1
0 3
q 3
0 4
q 1
0 4
q 3
0 5
q 1
0 5
q 3
0 6
q 1
0 6
q 3
0 6
q 4
0 7
q 1
0 7
q 2
0 7
q 3
0 7
q 4
0 8
q 1
0 8
q 2
0 8
q 3
0 8
q 4
0 9
q 1
0 9
q 2
0 9
q 3
0 9
q 4
1 0
q 1
1 0
q 2
1 0
q 3
1 0
q 4
1 1
q 1
1 1
q 2
1 1
q 3
1 1
q 4
1 2
q 1
1 2
q 2
1 2
q 3
1 2
q 4
1 3
q 1
1 3
q 2
1 3
q 3
1 3
q 4
Denver Metro
Colo Springs
Fort Collins/Loveland
Greeley
8/12/2019 CREJ_mcmaken
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/crejmcmaken 16/25
Denver metro multifamily vacancy rates (by %)
0
1
2
34
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
1415
16
17
0 1 q
1
0 1 q
3
0 2 q
1
0 2 q
3
0 3 q
1
0 3 q
3
0 4 q
1
0 4 q
3
0 5 q
1
0 5 q
3
0 6 q
1
0 6 q
3
0 6 q
4
0 7 q
1
0 7 q
2
0 7 q
3
0 7 q
4
0 8 q
1
0 8 q
2
0 8 q
3
0 8 q
4
0 9 q
1
0 9 q
2
0 9 q
3
0 9 q
4
1 0 q
1
1 0 q
2
1 0 q
3
1 0 q
4
1 1 q
1
1 1 q
2
1 1 q
3
1 1 q
4
1 2 q
1
1 2 q
2
1 2 q
3
1 2 q
4
1 3 q
1
1 3 q
2
1 3 q
3
1 3 q
4
Denver Metro
Grand Junction
Pueblo
8/12/2019 CREJ_mcmaken
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/crejmcmaken 17/25
Vacancy rate by unit type in metro Denver
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
0 3
q 1
0 3
q 3
0 4
q 1
0 4
q 3
0 5
q 1
0 5
q 3
0 6
q 1
0 6
q 3
0 7
q 1
0 7
q 3
0 8
q 1
0 8
q 3
0 9
q 1
0 9
q 3
1 0
q 1
1 0
q 3
1 1
q 1
1 1
q 3
1 2
q 1
1 2
q 3
1 3
q 1
1 3
q 3
All units
House
Townhouse
Condo
8/12/2019 CREJ_mcmaken
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/crejmcmaken 18/25
Average rent by dwelling type
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
0 1 q 4
0 2 q 3
0 3 q 2
0 4 q 1
0 4 q 4
0 5 q 3
0 6 q 2
0 7 q 1
0 7 q 4
0 8 q 3
0 9 q 2
1 0 q 1
1 0 q 4
1 1 q 3
1 2 q 2
1 3 q 1
1 3 q 4
All units House Townhouse Condo
8/12/2019 CREJ_mcmaken
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/crejmcmaken 19/25
Year-over-year change in avg. rent - metro Denver
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
0 2
q 4
0 3
q 3
0 4
q 2
0 5
q 1
0 5
q 4
0 6
q 3
0 7
q 2
0 8
q 1
0 8
q 4
0 9
q 3
1 0
q 2
1 1
q 1
1 1
q 4
1 2
q 3
1 3
q 2
House
Townhouse
Condo
8/12/2019 CREJ_mcmaken
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/crejmcmaken 20/25
FHFA House Price Index: Estimated using Sales
Prices and Appraisal Data
100
125
150
175
200
225
250
2 0 0 2
2 0 0 2
2 0 0 3
2 0 0 3
2 0 0 4
2 0 0 4
2 0 0 5
2 0 0 5
2 0 0 6
2 0 0 6
2 0 0 7
2 0 0 7
2 0 0 8
2 0 0 8
2 0 0 9
2 0 0 9
2 0 1 0
2 0 1 0
2 0 1 1
2 0 1 1
2 0 1 2
2 0 1 2
2 0 1 3
2 0 1 3
Denver-Aurora-BroomfieldColorado Springs
Ft Collins-LovelandGreeleyGrand JunctionPuebloBoulder
8/12/2019 CREJ_mcmaken
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/crejmcmaken 21/25
YOY Change in Case-Shiller Home Price Index, by %
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
J a n u a r y 2 0 0 2
M a y 2 0 0 2
S e p t e m b e r 2 0 0 2
J a n u a r y 2 0 0 3
M a y 2 0 0 3
S e p t e m b e r 2 0 0 3
J a n u a r y 2 0 0 4
M a y 2 0 0 4
S e p t e m b e r 2 0 0 4
J a n u a r y 2 0 0 5
M a y 2 0 0 5
S e p t e m b e r 2 0 0 5
J a n u a r y 2 0 0 6
M a y 2 0 0 6
S e p t e m b e r 2 0 0 6
J a n u a r y 2 0 0 7
M a y 2 0 0 7
S e p t e m b e r 2 0 0 7
J a n u a r y 2 0 0 8
M a y 2 0 0 8
S e p t e m b e r 2 0 0 8
J a n u a r y 2 0 0 9
M a y 2 0 0 9
S e p t e m b e r 2 0 0 9
J a n u a r y 2 0 1 0
M a y 2 0 1 0
S e p t e m b e r 2 0 1 0
J a n u a r y 2 0 1 1
M a y 2 0 1 1
S e p t e m b e r 2 0 1 0
J a n u a r y 2 0 1 2
M a y 2 0 1 2
S e p 2 0 1 2
J a n 2 0 1 3
M a y 2 0 1 3
S e p 2 0 1 3
Denver
20-City Composite
8/12/2019 CREJ_mcmaken
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/crejmcmaken 22/25
Foreclosures in Colorado metropolitan counties
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
J a n
u a r y 2 0 0 7
M
a r c h 2 0 0 7
M a y 2 0 0 7
J u l y 2 0 0 7
S
e p t e m b e r
N o v e m b e r
J a n
u a r y 2 0 0 8
M
a r c h 2 0 0 8
M a y 2 0 0 8
J u l y 2 0 0 8
S
e p t e m b e r
N o v e m b e r
J a n
u a r y 2 0 0 9
M
a r c h 2 0 0 9
M a y 2 0 0 9
J u l y 2 0 0 9
S
e p t e m b e r
N o v e m b e r
J a n
u a r y 2 0 1 0
M
a r c h 2 0 1 0
M a y 2 0 1 0
J u l y 2 0 1 0
S
e p t e m b e r
N o v e m b e r
J a n
u a r y 2 0 1 1
M
a r c h 2 0 1 1
M a y 2 0 1 1
J u l y 2 0 1 1
S e p t 2 0 1 1
N o v 2 0 1 1
J a n 2 0 1 2
M a r 2 0 1 2
M a y 2 0 1 2
J u l y 2 0 1 2
S e p t 2 0 1 2
N o v 2 0 1 2
J a n 2 0 1 3
M a r 2 0 1 3
M a y 2 0 1 3
J u l 2 0 1 3
S e p 2 0 1 3
N o v 2 0 1 3
J a n 2 0 1 4
Filings Sales
8/12/2019 CREJ_mcmaken
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/crejmcmaken 23/25
Annual Releases and Mortgage Rates
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9Releases
30-yr fixed conv mortgage
8/12/2019 CREJ_mcmaken
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/crejmcmaken 24/25
Releases and Mortgage rates
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
0 8 / 1
s t Q
0 8 / 2 n d Q
0 8 / 3
r d Q
0 8 / 4
t h Q
0 9 / 1
s t Q
0 9 / 2 n d Q
0 9 / 3
r d Q
0 9 / 4
t h Q
1 0 / 1
s t Q
1 0 / 2 n d Q
1 0 / 3
r d Q
1 0 / 4
t h Q
1 1 / 1
s t Q
1 1 / 2 n d Q
1 1 / 3
r d Q
1 1 / 4
t h Q
1 2 / 1
s t Q
1 2 / 2
n d Q
1 2 / 3 r d Q
1 2 / 4 t h Q
1 3 / 1 s t Q
1 3 / 2
n d Q
1 3 / 3 r d Q
1 3 / 4 t h Q
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Total releases
30 yr conv.fixed rate
8/12/2019 CREJ_mcmaken
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/crejmcmaken 25/25
For More:• See DivisionofHousing.com