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Credit Suisse 4th Annual Truck Builders Conference March 2, 2006
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Credit Suisse 4th Annual Truck Builders Conference March 2, 2006

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Credit Suisse 4th Annual Truck Builders Conference March 2, 2006. Forward Looking Statements. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Page 1: Credit Suisse 4th Annual Truck Builders Conference March 2,  2006

Credit Suisse 4th AnnualTruck Builders Conference

March 2, 2006

Page 2: Credit Suisse 4th Annual Truck Builders Conference March 2,  2006

2

Forward Looking StatementsOur remarks that follow, including answers to your questions and these slides, include statements that we believe are “forward-looking statements” within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act. All of our statements, other than statements of historical fact, including statements regarding Oshkosh Truck’s future financial position, business strategy, targets, projected sales, costs, earnings, capital expenditures and debt levels, and plans and objectives of management for future operations, are forward-looking statements. In addition, forward-looking statements generally can be identified by the use of words such as “expect,” “intend,” “estimates,” “anticipate,” “believe,” “should,” “plans,” or similar words. We cannot give any assurance that such expectations will prove to be correct. Some factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from our expectations include the accuracy of assumptions made with respect to our expectations for fiscal 2006 and beyond, the Company’s ability to continue the turnaround of the business of the Geesink Norba Group sufficiently to support its valuation resulting in no non-cash impairment charge for Geesink Norba Group goodwill, the Company’s ability to increase its operating income margins at McNeilus, the ability of the Company to recover steel and component cost increases from its customers, risks associated with a three-phase enterprise resource planning system implementation at McNeilus, the expected level of U.S. Department of Defense procurement of the Company’s products and services, the cyclical nature of the Company’s commercial and fire and emergency markets, risks related to reductions in government expenditures, the uncertainty of government contracts, the challenges of identifying, completing and integrating acquisitions, the success of the launch of the Revolution drum, and risks associated with international operations. Additional information concerning these and other factors is contained in our filings with the SEC, including our Form 8-K filed February 2, 2006. Except as set forth in such Form 8-K, we disclaim any obligation to update such forward-looking statements.

Page 3: Credit Suisse 4th Annual Truck Builders Conference March 2,  2006

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Oshkosh Truck Corporation• Largest global

specialty truck and truck body company

• Leading brands in each market

• Successful growth record and strategies to sustain growth

• Driving force in bringing new technologies to market

Page 4: Credit Suisse 4th Annual Truck Builders Conference March 2,  2006

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Investment Highlights

$0

$5

$10

$15

$20

$25

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$35

$40

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5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

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Driving Forward

RO

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are

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rice

And, a positive outlook

Superior Historic Returns Strong ROIC

Page 5: Credit Suisse 4th Annual Truck Builders Conference March 2,  2006

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Significant Competitive Advantages• Leading brand positions

• Extensive distribution capabilities

• Flexible and efficient manufacturing

• Proprietary component technologies

• Strong balance sheet

Page 6: Credit Suisse 4th Annual Truck Builders Conference March 2,  2006

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Market Leadership

Source: Company estimates of its fiscal 2004 U.S. market share only, except for refuse truck bodies - Europe.

Heavy Defense Trucks #1 100%Medium Marine Trucks #1 100%Fire Apparatus #1 31%Wreckers and Carriers #2 25%Airport Products #1 79%Ambulances #3 8%Rear-Discharge Concrete Mixers #1 75%Front-Discharge Concrete Mixers #1 51%Concrete Batch Plants #1 48%Refuse Truck Bodies - U.S. #1/#2 27% - Europe #1 20%

RankEstimated

Market Share

Page 7: Credit Suisse 4th Annual Truck Builders Conference March 2,  2006

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$0.4

$1.4

$1.7$1.9

$2.3

$3.0

$0.00

$0.74$0.86

$1.08

$1.57

$2.18

$0.0

$0.5

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EPS

Core Growth Strategies• Investing in

innovation– Lead in new product

development in all markets

• Embracing lean principles– Supported by

chartered cost reduction teams

• Pursuing strategic acquisitions– Expand globally– New platforms and

tuck-ins

ROIC .2% 11.7% 11.5% 14.5% 18.3% 20.5%

Page 8: Credit Suisse 4th Annual Truck Builders Conference March 2,  2006

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Driving Growth: Demand

• Growing requirements for remanufacturing/modularity

• Continuing emphasis on homeland security

• Improving municipal markets

• Continuing strength in concrete placement and refuse in advance of 2007 engine emissions standards change

Page 9: Credit Suisse 4th Annual Truck Builders Conference March 2,  2006

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Impact of Engine Emissions Standards Charge

• Usually a lag of 5 or more years before changes to engine emission standards affect new defense truck manufacturing

• Generally, limited impact on infrequent fire apparatus and airport product purchasers

– Largest cities most effected

– Emphasis on homeland security spending probably offsets impact

• Carriers, wreckers and ambulances generally more affected

Page 10: Credit Suisse 4th Annual Truck Builders Conference March 2,  2006

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Impact of Engine Emissions Standards Charge

• 5% - 10% pre-buy anticipated in fiscal 2006

• Estimated fiscal 2007 impact:– 5% to 10% pre-buy in first quarter– Downturn thereafter

• Fiscal 2003 post-change downturn of 15% to 20% for vocational markets

• Over-the-road downturn estimated at ± 40%

• Expect lower vocational market downturn than over-the-road downturn

• No impact on European refuse business• Anticipating relatively flat commercial

segment operating income from fiscal 2006 to fiscal 2007

Page 11: Credit Suisse 4th Annual Truck Builders Conference March 2,  2006

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Driving Growth: Company Tactics

• Commercial segment turnaround in progress– European refuse profitable in Q4 2005;

expected to be profitable throughout fiscal 2006

– Anticipate domestic commercial margins to improve by Q2 of fiscal 2006

• Reduce cost structure through lean– Chartered cost reduction teams– Rationalize supply base

Price Up, Cost Down

Page 12: Credit Suisse 4th Annual Truck Builders Conference March 2,  2006

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Driving Growth: Company Tactics • Additional new products

in the pipeline– Launching at upcoming

trade shows

• New business initiatives– Expanding defense service

capabilities globally– Opening sales, service,

procurement and M&A office in Beijing

Page 13: Credit Suisse 4th Annual Truck Builders Conference March 2,  2006

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Driving Growth: Acquisitions

• M & A pipeline improving

• Capitalizing on de-levered balance sheet

• Criteria:– Market leaders with

either #1 or #2 market position

– Accretive in first year; strong ROIC

– Significant potential synergies

Page 14: Credit Suisse 4th Annual Truck Builders Conference March 2,  2006

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Fire & Emergency• Strong consistent performance• Pierce growth outpaces

industry:– Pierce*

• 3-year CAGR: 2.8%• 10-year CAGR: 6.1%

– Industry*• 3-year CAGR: (1.1%)• 10-year CAGR: 1.1%

• Investing $18.5 million to expand Pierce facilities

• JerrDan and BAI integration on schedule

– Look for new products at trade shows

Source: Company estimates of U.S. fire apparatus sales and market shares

2004 Market Share

Rosenbauer8%

Pierce31%

E-One22%

KME10%

ALF8%

Other21%

Annual Market: 5,500 units (est.)

* Company estimates based on units

Page 15: Credit Suisse 4th Annual Truck Builders Conference March 2,  2006

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Defense• Potential for significant troop

levels in Iraq for next four years

• Remanufacturing and armor are long-term priorities– New facility opened summer

of 2005• Modularity initiative expected

to drive new truck volume• Expanding parts and service

opportunities• Heavy investment in product

development

Page 16: Credit Suisse 4th Annual Truck Builders Conference March 2,  2006

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McNeilus & Oshkosh Concrete Placement

• 75,000+ mixers in operation

• Cement supplies are tight in selected regions*

• Stronger nonresidential construction expected to offset any cooling in residential construction*

• Pre-buy expected in 2006

Source: Company estimates of U.S. unit sales and market shares

2004 Market Share

Oshkosh/McNeilus – 69%

Advance8%

Continental7%

Other16%

Front Discharge22%

Rear Discharge78%

Annual Market: 7,000 – 7,500 units (est.)

*Source: Portland Cement Association

Page 17: Credit Suisse 4th Annual Truck Builders Conference March 2,  2006

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2004 Market Share

Source: Company estimates of U.S. unit sales and market shares

Heil27%

McNeilus 27%

Wittke/Leach13%

La Brie10%

Other14%

Neway9%

Front Loaders26%

Side Loaders23%

Multi-Compartment4%

Annual Market: 6,000 – 6,500 units (est.)

McNeilus Refuse• 114,000+ vehicles in

operation

• Big Three account for nearly 50% of purchases– Increasing purchases

to reduce operation and maintenance costs

• Municipal demand expected to continue to improve

Rear Loaders47%

Page 18: Credit Suisse 4th Annual Truck Builders Conference March 2,  2006

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European Refuse

• Industry volumes down 20%; pricing down 5% - 10%

•Several unprofitable manufacturers

•Business turnaround based solely on cost reduction

– Executing on outsourcing strategy through 2006

Source: Company estimates of European unit sales and market shares

2004 Market Share

Geesink Norba Group20%

Faun18%

OMB9%

Ros Roca7%

Other23%

Farid/Brivio10%

Dennis Eagle9%

Heil4%

Rear Loaders73%

Front Loaders2%

Side Loaders13%

Minis8%

Other4%

Annual Market: 5,500 – 6,000 units (est.)

Page 19: Credit Suisse 4th Annual Truck Builders Conference March 2,  2006

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Driving Force: New Technologies

• Hybrid-electric drive– Potential 20% - 40%

fuel savings– Run stealth capability

• Enhanced load handling system

• Completed 132-mile DARPA Grand Challenge desert race

• Most commercially viable technology

• Objective: Survivability of our troops

TerraMax™

HEMTT A3

Page 20: Credit Suisse 4th Annual Truck Builders Conference March 2,  2006

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Driving Force: New Technologies

• First and only composite mixer

• 2,000 lb. weight reduction lowers cost per delivered yard

• Front-discharge Revolution launched in January 2006

Revolution

Page 21: Credit Suisse 4th Annual Truck Builders Conference March 2,  2006

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Financial Performance and Targets

• 10% annual organic sales growth, supplemented by acquisitions

• 9% consolidated operating income margin*, eventually 10%

• >15% EPS growth*

• >15% ROIC**In a recovery

ROIC 11.7% 11.5% 14.5% 18.3% 20.5%

$1,744$1,926

$2,262

$2,960

$1,445

6.4% 6.7%

8.0%

9.0%

6.8%

$-

$500

$1,000

$1,500

$2,000

$2,500

$3,000

$3,500

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

9.0%

10.0%

Sal e

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Page 22: Credit Suisse 4th Annual Truck Builders Conference March 2,  2006

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Excellent Financial Trends

(1) Beginning in fiscal 2002, goodwill and indefinite-lived assets are no longer amortized under U.S. GAAP. Fiscal 2001 EPS includes $0.10 in charges, net of tax related to this amortization.

(2) Restated for August 2005 two-for-one stock split.

Sales - $ $1,445.3 $1,743.6 $1,926.0 $2,262.3 $2,959.9

- Growth 8.7% 20.6% 10.5% 17.5% 30.8%

Operating income - $ 98.3 111.1 129.2 180.4267.2

- Margin 6.8% 6.4% 6.7% 8.0% 9.0%

- Growth 0.2% 13.0% 16.3% 39.6% 48.1%

EPS (1) (2) - $/Share 0.74 0.86 1.08 1.57 2.18

- Growth 1.4% 16.2% 25.6% 45.4% 38.9%

Dollars in millionsFiscal 2001

Fiscal 2002

Fiscal 2003

Fiscal2004

Fiscal2005

Page 23: Credit Suisse 4th Annual Truck Builders Conference March 2,  2006

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Strong Leverage and Capital Efficiency Ratios

Days of net working capital 6 12 9

Debt to capital ratio 9.3% 10.7% 2.9%

Debt to TTM EBITDA .3x .4x .1x

TTM return on equity 16.5% 19.5% 21.5%

TTM return on invested capital 14.5% 18.3% 20.5%

Fiscal2003

Fiscal 2004

Fiscal2005

Page 24: Credit Suisse 4th Annual Truck Builders Conference March 2,  2006

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Consolidated First Quarter Results

Net Sales $790.3 $644.9

% Growth 22.5% 30.8%

Operating Income$ 87.0 $ 67.6

% Margin 11.0% 10.5%

% Growth 28.6% 44.7%

Earnings Per Share$ 0.72 $ 0.56

% Growth 28.6% 33.3%

Dollars in millions, except earnings per share

Comments

• Defense drove results

• Favorable defense adjustments totaling $12.2 million in 2005 ($0.10 per share)

• Favorable product liability settlements

totaling $4.2 million at Corporate in 2005 ($0.04 per share)

2006 2005

First Quarter

Page 25: Credit Suisse 4th Annual Truck Builders Conference March 2,  2006

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Fire & Emergency

Net Sales $216.4 $841.5

% Growth 11.5% 40.3%

Operating Income$ 20.9 $ 79.6

% Margin 9.7% 9.5%

% Growth 13.4% 44.9%

Dollars in millionsFirst

Quarter2006

Fiscal 2005

First QuarterComments

• Strong fire apparatus sales and improved pricing benefited earnings

• Lower airport product sales

• Expansion-related costs also impacted quarter

• Backlog up 4.1%

Page 26: Credit Suisse 4th Annual Truck Builders Conference March 2,  2006

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Defense

Net Sales $363.1 $1,061.1

% Growth 68.5% 37.1%

Operating Income$ 72.6 $ 210.2

% Margin 20.0% 19.8% % Growth 40.5% 64.4%

FirstQuarter

2006

Dollars in millions

Fiscal2005

First QuarterComments

• Truck and parts and service sales each up

more than 60%• MTVR adjustment of $8.5 million in 2005 • Recovery of pre-contract costs of $3.7 million in 2005• Backlog down 3.0%, but bridge supplemental

funding not yet under contract

Page 27: Credit Suisse 4th Annual Truck Builders Conference March 2,  2006

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Commercial

Net Sales $221.2 $1,085.7

% Growth (8.4)% 19.7%

Operating Income$ 8.3 $ 23.8

% Margin 3.8% 2.2% % Growth 47.6% (31.6)%

FirstQuarter

2006

Dollars in millions

Fiscal2005

First QuarterComments

• Sales impacted by ERP implementation

• European refuse profitable in Q1; $2.6

million operating loss in 2005

• Price increases beginning to benefit earnings

• Backlog up 29.1%

Page 28: Credit Suisse 4th Annual Truck Builders Conference March 2,  2006

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Capitalization

Dollars in Millions

Cash and Cash Equivalents $ 81.0 $127.5

Debt $ 23.2 $ 24.1

Shareholders’ Equity 874.7 818.7

Total Capitalization $897.9 $842.8

Total Debt/Total Capitalization 2.6%2.9%

Dec. 31,2005

Sept. 30,

2005

Page 29: Credit Suisse 4th Annual Truck Builders Conference March 2,  2006

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Positioned to Sustain Growth in Fiscal 2006

Sales $3.3 - $3.4 billion % growth 11.5% - 15.0%

Operating income $316.5 - $329.0

million % margin 9.6% - 9.7% % growth 18.0% - 23.0%

EPS $2.55 - $2.65 % growth 17.0% - 21.6%

• Expect defense and fire and emergency to report steady growth

• Targeting recovery of U.S. margins and a return to annual profitability in Europe in commercial segment

Estimates (1) Outlook

(1) Estimates as of February 2, 2006

Page 30: Credit Suisse 4th Annual Truck Builders Conference March 2,  2006

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Favorable Fiscal 2007 Estimated Outlook• Expect higher funding for remanufacturing /

modularity in defense• Fire and emergency and homeland security

demand is expected to remain strong• 2007 emission standards expected to impact

commercial demand, but margin enhancement initiatives should offset much of the impact

• Expect cost reduction, new product development and acquisition initiatives to realize benefits for 2007

Page 31: Credit Suisse 4th Annual Truck Builders Conference March 2,  2006

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Driving Forces• Strong historic returns,

• Successful core strategies, and

• Favorable demand and Company tactics,

• Are expected to drive Oshkosh forward full throttle in 2006

Page 32: Credit Suisse 4th Annual Truck Builders Conference March 2,  2006