Credit Risk Analysis in Indian Commercial Banks- An Empirical Investigation Authors: Swaranjeet Arora Assistant Professor (SG), Prestige Institute of Management and Research, Indore, India. Email: [email protected]Abstract Risk exposure in banking system has increased due to fierce competition, changing socio- economic patterns, market flexibility, and increased foreign exchange business and cross border activities. These developments have resulted into various types of banking risks. Credit risk, earlier present in the banking system has also increased and Credit risk analysis has emerged as a big challenge for the Indian commercial banks. This paper attempts to identify the factors that contribute to Credit Risk analysis in Indian banks and to compare Credit Risk analysis practices followed by Indian public and private sector banks, the empirical study has been conducted and views of employees of various banks have been tested using statistical tools. Present study explored the phenomenon from different perspectives and revealed that Credit Worthiness analysis and Collateral requirements are the two important factors for analyzing Credit Risk. From the descriptive and analytical results, it can be concluded that Indian banks efficiently manage credit risk. The results also indicate that there is significant difference between the Indian Public and Private sector banks in Analyzing Credit Risk. Keywords: Risk management; Banks; Credit Risk Introduction “Granting credit involves - accepting risk as well as producing profits” -Bank for international settlements, Basel, Switzerland There has been tremendous transition in the role of bank as a financial intermediary. Before liberalization all the activities of banks were regulated and hence operational environment was not conducive to risk taking. Now, banks have grown from being a financial intermediary into a risk intermediary. Banks are exposed to severe competition and hence are compelled to encounter various types of financial and non-financial risks. Risks and uncertainties form an integral part of banking which by nature entails taking risks. Banks are now required to clearly discriminate avoidable and unavoidable risks and are required to focus on the extent to which such risks can be taken by banks. The banking reforms and policy changes during the years have gradually changed banking landscape and credit market in India. First visible change is that banks are now more customer focused and are providing innovative products at fast pace, Second change is that deregulation has made the banks free to formulate their own schemes and products as per their market segment and risk appetite, redesign business process and lending policies and procedures to meet changing expectations of the customers and the market. Thirdly, introduction of risk management practices and implementation of Basel II recommendations have brought in more professional approach in credit delivery process which is now more risk focused and has made pricing of loan-products dependent on risk perception of the borrower and likely hood of default. Fourth visible change is that banks are moving from so called lazy banking to busy banking by aggressively Asia-Pacific Finance and Accounting Review ISSN 2278-1838: Volume 1, No. 2, Jan - Mar 2013
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Credit Risk Analysis in Indian Commercial Banks-An Empirical Investigation
Authors:Swaranjeet AroraAssistant Professor (SG), Prestige Institute of Management and Research, Indore, India. Email: [email protected]
AbstractRisk exposure in banking system has increased due to fierce competition, changing socio-
economic patterns, market flexibility, and increased foreign exchange business and cross
border activities. These developments have resulted into various types of banking risks.
Credit risk, earlier present in the banking system has also increased and Credit risk analysis
has emerged as a big challenge for the Indian commercial banks. This paper attempts to
identify the factors that contribute to Credit Risk analysis in Indian banks and to compare
Credit Risk analysis practices followed by Indian public and private sector banks, the
empirical study has been conducted and views of employees of various banks have been
tested using statistical tools. Present study explored the phenomenon from different
perspectives and revealed that Credit Worthiness analysis and Collateral requirements are
the two important factors for analyzing Credit Risk. From the descriptive and analytical
results, it can be concluded that Indian banks efficiently manage credit risk. The results also
indicate that there is significant difference between the Indian Public and Private sector
banks in Analyzing Credit Risk.
Keywords: Risk management; Banks; Credit Risk
Introduction
“Granting credit involves - accepting risk as well as
producing profits”
-Bank for international settlements, Basel, Switzerland
There has been tremendous transition in the role of bank as
a financial intermediary. Before liberalization all the
activities of banks were regulated and hence operational
environment was not conducive to risk taking. Now, banks
have grown from being a financial intermediary into a risk
intermediary. Banks are exposed to severe competition and
hence are compelled to encounter various types of financial
and non-financial risks. Risks and uncertainties form an
integral part of banking which by nature entails taking
risks. Banks are now required to clearly discriminate
avoidable and unavoidable risks and are required to focus
on the extent to which such risks can be taken by banks.
The banking reforms and policy changes during the years
have gradually changed banking landscape and credit
market in India. First visible change is that banks are now
more customer focused and are providing innovative
products at fast pace, Second change is that deregulation
has made the banks free to formulate their own schemes
and products as per their market segment and risk appetite,
redesign business process and lending policies and
procedures to meet changing expectations of the customers
and the market. Thirdly, introduction of risk management
practices and implementation of Basel II recommendations
have brought in more professional approach in credit
delivery process which is now more risk focused and has
made pricing of loan-products dependent on risk
perception of the borrower and likely hood of default.
Fourth visible change is that banks are moving from so
called lazy banking to busy banking by aggressively
Asia-Pacific Finance and Accounting ReviewISSN 2278-1838: Volume 1, No. 2, Jan - Mar 2013
expanding credit to retail, agriculture and small and
medium enterprises. Fifth visible change is that banks are
gradually becoming super market where they will not only
lend but also offer whole gamut of financial products
including third party products so that customer gets
opportunity to select best product at competitive price. All
these changes are on the one hand creating new business
opportunities and on the other hand also creating new
challenges, which banks will have to face boldly and
proactively (Mehrotra, 2005).
Banking risk results into Expected and Unexpected losses.
Banks rely on their capital as a buffer to absorb such losses.
Chakrabarti and Chawla (2005) suggested that banks must
plough back profit to build profound and solid reserve
base. According to experts banks need to maintain enough
capital for prudential corrective action to prevent any risk
(Bhat 2005). The efficiency of capital plays a major role in
this exercise and banks are advised to adopt risk
management practices. Eichengreen (1999) identifies the
policies of the new international financial architecture as
crisis prevention, crisis prediction and crisis management.
In spite of heavy regulations in the last two decades, many
developed and emerging countries have witnessed severe
banking crises. There is an imperative need to follow
internationally compatible prudential norms relating to
capital structure and supervisory norms. Banks are
required to develop the system which involves minimum
risk exposure.
Credit risk in commercial banks represents the most
important type of risk. Banks bear the credit risk attached to
bank loans and forward contracts. The risk of defaults or
protracted arrears on outstanding loan is termed as credit
risk (Tamimi, H. and Mazrooei, F., 2007). According to the
consultative paper issued by the Basel Committee on
Banking Supervision (1999), for most banks loans are the
largest and most obvious sources of credit risk. Credit Risk
is the potential that a bank borrower or counter party fails
to meet the obligations on agreed terms. It mainly arises
from the potential that a borrower or counterparty will fail
to perform on an obligation. It may arise from either an
inability or an unwillingness to perform in the pre-
committed contracted manner.
Financial markets in developing economies are not sound
and efficient and are predominantly occupied by State-
owned firms. State-owned firms, especially in banking
sector, are commonly found in many developing countries
(La Porta et al. 2002). Banking Policies and Strategies are
formed depending upon type and structure of ownership
of a bank. Organizational culture, attitude and behaviors
also vary according to type of bank ownership i.e. Private-
owned banks and state owned banks. This difference leads
to different levels of risk- taking behavior and banks
performance (Arora, S. and Jain, R.; 2011) and in turn
26
results into varying level of Credit Risk in different types of
banks. This paper is aimed to examine the degree to which
Indian banks analyze Credit Risk and attempts to identify
the factors that contribute to Credit Risk Analysis in
different commercial banks and to compare whether Public
and Private Sector banks efficiently analyze Credit risk.
Various researchers have studied reasons behind bank
problems and identified several factors (Santomero, 1997;
Basel, 1999, Basel, 2004). Bindseil, U. and Papadia, F. (2006)
reviewed the role and effects of the collateral frameworks
which central banks, and in particular the Euro system, use
in conducting temporary monetary policy operations.
They explained the design of such a framework from the
perspective of risk mitigation, which is the purpose of
collateralization. They identified that by means of
appropriate risk mitigation measures, the residual risk on
any potentially eligible asset can be equalized and brought
down to the level consistent with the risk tolerance of the
central bank. Once this result has been achieved, eligibility
decisions should be based on an economic cost-benefit
analysis. They also looked at the effects of the collateral
framework on financial markets, and in particular on
spreads between eligible and ineligible assets.
Gilbert and Wilson (1998) examined the impact of banking
deregulation on the productive efficiency of Korean
private banks during the 1980 and 1994 reporting
productive efficiency improvements following the 1980s
deregulation. A banking crisis can also be initiated by a
high level of unexpected non-performing loans in a bank.
When this information is known by the depositors, they
rush to the bank to get back their deposits before the other
depositors. If markets for liquidity are inefficient because
of market power or information asymmetries, liquidity
problems at healthy banks can turn into solvency
problems. In fact, in this case the bank is forced to sell its
long-term assets below their fair value, see, e.g., Allen and
Gale (1998), Bernanke and Gertler (1989), Donaldson
(1992), Kiyotaki and Moore (1997), and Kwan and Eisenbis
(1997) demonstrate that inefficient banks are more prone to
risk-taking.
Relationship between capital, risk and efficiency varies for
banks with different ownership structures. However, there
is little empirical guidance to suggest whether there are
systematic differences in the relationship between risk
taking, capital strength and efficiency for banks with
different ownership features. Much of the literature on
banking in emerging markets focuses on either the broad
relationship between ownership and financial
performance (e.g., Sarkar, Sarkar and Bhaumik, 1998) or
the agency aspect of ownership, i.e., the impact of
separation between management and ownership on the
Literature Review
Swaranjeet Arora
performance of banks (e.g., Gorton and Schmid, 1999;
Hirshey, 1999).
Previous studies found that foreign-owned banks
outperform domestic-owned banks in developing
countries (Havrylchyk 2003). State-owned banks
underperform domestic-owned banks (Bonin et al. 2003;
Cornett, Guo, Khaksari, and Tehranian 2000). Bonin et al.
(2004) argued that over the second half of the 1990s, foreign
ownership in the banking sectors of transition countries
increased dramatically and the performance of foreign
owned banks were significantly higher than domestically
owned banks and the extent of such foreign ownership
impacted the bank efficiency significantly in eleven
transition countries.
The International Monetary Fund (2000) noted that
subsequent to privatization of banks in Bulgaria, following
the banking-currency crisis of 1996-97, the banking sector
was reluctant to lend in the high-risk environment,
resulting in a ratio of private sector credit to GDP of about
12 percent. This is compared to the optimal value of this
ratio for a country with Bulgaria’s per capita GDP of
around 30 percent. Latin American evidence suggests that
foreign banks are especially risk averse and that significant
market penetration by these banks in a developing
economy context might adversely affect credit disbursal to
small and medium enterprises (Clarke, Cull, D’Amato and
Molinari, 1999; Clarke, Cull, and Peria 2001; Clarke, Cull,
Peria and Sanchez, 2002).
Coleman, L. (2007) provided a practical explanation of the
risk taking behavior of finance executives and confirms
that context is more important to decisions than their
content. He also explored reasons for decision makers
facing choices preferring a risky alternative. He finally
identified the risk propensity and quantified it by
respondents’ attitude towards a risky decision, and also
explained decision maker traits using independent
variables. Oldfield and Santomero (1997) investigated risk
management in financial institutions. In this study, they
suggested four steps for active risk management
techniques:
1. The establishment of standards and reports;
2. The imposition of position limits and rules (i.e.
contemporary exposures, credit limits and position
concentration);
3. The creation of self investment guidelines and
strategies; and
4. The alignment of incentive contracts and
compensation (performance-based compensation
contracts).
Scope and Design of the Study
Objectives
The present investigation is based on exploratory research
inquiry and examines the Credit Risk Analysis process in
Public and Private sector banks. It is based on primary data
and compares Credit Risk Analysis process in Indian
Public and Private sector banks of Indore division. The data
was collected from sample of 200 employees of public and
private sector banks of Indore division. 50 respondents
were chosen from each bank viz SBI and Associates; Other
Nationalized Banks; Old Private Sector banks and New
Private Sector Banks. The respondents were selected
through non-probability convenience (judgmental)
sampling method.
As this research has a quantitative base so questionnaire
used in this research is close ended questionnaire. The
research instrument used to collect data was based on
questionnaire developed by Al-Tamimi and Al-Mazrooei
(2007). It included seven close-ended questions based on an
interval scale. Respondents were asked to indicate their
degree of agreement with each of the questions on a five-
point Likert scale. The data were analyzed using window
based Statistical package of the Social Science (SPSS). The
statistical tools used were analysis of variance, Tukey
Management in Financial Institutions. Sloan Management
Review, 39(1), 33-46.
• Salas, V. and Saurina, J. (2002). Credit risk in two
institutional regimes: Spanish commercial and savings
banks. The Journal of Financial Services Research, 22 (3),
203-16.
• Sarkar, Jayati, Subrata Sarkar and Sumon K. Bhaumik
(1998). Does ownership always matter? Evidence from the
Indian banking industry? Journal of Comparative
Economics, 26, 262-281.
• Selltiz, C., Wrightsman, L.S. and Cook, W. (1976). Research
Methods in Social Relations. Holt, Rinehart and Winston,
New York, NY.
• Stiglitz, Joseph, and Andrew Weiss (1981). Credit
Rationing in Markets with Imperfect Information.
American Economic Review. 71, 393-410.
31
Credit Risk Analysis in Indian Commercial Banks-An Empirical Investigation
• Vives, Xavier (1990). Banking Competition and European
Integration. CEPR Discussion Papers, 373.
32
• Wesley, D. (1993). Credit Risk Management: Lessons for
Success. Journal of Commercial Lending, 08.
Appendix
Bank’s Risk Management ScaleAuthors-Al-Tamimi and Al-Mazrooei (2007)
InstructionsPlease read the questions carefully and mark (X) at the appropriate place in one of the five columns, as the case may be. The questionnaire is designed to know your opinion in general. Please note it is not to test policies of your banks. There is no right or wrong answer. The data is being collected for purely academic purpose.
General InformationName of the Bank :Name of the employee (optional) :Designation :
STATEMENT Strongly
Disagree
Disagree Neutral Agree Strongly
Agree
1. This bank undertakes a credit
worthiness analysis
before granting loans
2. Before granting loans your bank
undertake a specific
analysis including the client’s characters, capacity,
collateral capital and conditions
3. This banks’ borrowers are classified
according to a risk factor (risk rating)
4. It is essential to require sufficient
collateral from the small borrowers
5. This bank’s policy requires collateral for all granting
loans
6. It is preferable to require collateral against some
loans and not all of them
7. The level
of credit granted to
defaulted clients must be reduced
Table 1: Result of the KMO and Bartlett’s test for Risk Assessment and Analysis
Kaiser-Meyer-Olkin Measure of Sampling Adequacy 0.676
Bartlett’s test of Sphericity
Approx. chi square
728.998
df
21
Sig.
0.000
Swaranjeet Arora
Table 2: Rotated Factor Matrix for Credit Risk Analysis
Var. No. F1 F2 Communalities
V1
0.815
0.669
V2
0.842
0.792
V3
0.775
0.681
V4
0.913
0.838
V5
0.887
0.822
V6
0.687
0.593
V7
0.770
0.664
Eigen value
3.46
1.60
Cumulative variance
44.00
72.29
33
Note: F1 and F2 are two derived factors.
Table 3: Factors of Credit Risk Analysis
Sl. No.
FACTOR Item
Item Item Item Item
1 Credit Worthiness Analysis
Clients’ Character, capacity, capital, collateral
and conditions Analyses (3.9)
Credit worthiness Analysis (3.8)
Risk Rating (4.2)
Less credit to defaulted clients (3.8)
Collateral against some loans (3.8)
2 Collateral Requirements
Collateral requirements from small borrowers (3.6)
Collateral for all granting loans (3.4)
The figures in parenthesis represent the average scores for the variables under each Factor that determine Credit Risk Analysis.
Table 4: Results of One Way ANOVA Credit Risk Analysis
Sum of Squares
Df Mean Square
F Sig.
Between Groups
23.99608
3 7.998693
26.24193
.000
Within Groups
59.74194
196 0.305
Total 83.73802 199
*The mean difference is significant at the 0.01 level.
Credit Risk Analysis in Indian Commercial Banks-An Empirical Investigation
Table 5: Post Hoc Test-Credit Risk Analysis
Mean Difference (I-J)
Std. Error
Sig. 95% Confidence Interval
(I) (J) Lower Bound
Upper Bound
Tukey HSD
SBI NEW PVT PUB OLD PVT
-0.424 0.2098 -0.672
0.1104180.1104180.110418
.001
.231
.000
-0.710 -0.076 -0.959
-0.138 0.496
-0.387
NEW PVT
SBI PUB OLD PVT
0.4244 0.6342 -0.248
0.1104180.1104180.110418
.001
.000
.114
0.138 0.348
-0.535
0.711 0.920 0.038
PUB SBI NEW PVT OLD PVT
-0.209 -0.634 -0.882
0.1104180.1104180.110418
.231
.000
.000
-0.496 -0.920 -1.169
0.076 -0.348 -0.596
OLD PVT
SBI NEW PVT PUB
0.6728 0.2484 0.8826
0.1104180.1104180.110418
.000
.114
.000
0.387 -0.038 0.596
0.959 0.535 1.169
34
*The mean difference is significant at the .05 level.