Creative Systems Engineering IEEE / INCOSE Presentation Walter Sobkiw November 17, 2009.

Creative Systems Engineering

IEEE / INCOSE Presentation

Walter Sobkiw

November 17, 2009


Content

• Introductions

• Path to the book

• Tools that started it all

• Some major themes

• Publishing approach

• University adventures


Credentials


Path

2005 2006

Carnegie Melon presentation

Walt creates SAT

NASA finds SAT

Analyzed Green Paper A European Strategy

for Sustainable, Competitive and Secure Energy

Walt creates GDA

Published short story on Kindle

about Taffy


Path

2007 2008

GDA Analyzed Stern Review:

The Economics of Climate

Change

GDA Analyzed U.S. Climate Change

Technology Program Strategic Plan

Realized popular media did not match the real work

Published on Kindle

INCOSE International Conference: System Engineering for the

Planet

Published Paperback



Tools that started it all

From SAT to GDA


SAT Idea

Prelim Spec Doc

SAT Final Spec

ReportsUpdatesAuthors

PreviouslyManual

Inspections

• Lets machines do what they do well– search, count, filter, categorize, profile, visualize

• Lets humans do what they do well– creativity, critical thinking, inspiration, intuition


SAT is Special Because

• Open rules visible to everyone– Rules for finding bad requirements text NOT proprietary

• Rules easy to change coincident with analysis run– To allow users to quickly tune tool to their domain and

adjust for potential false finding

• It is fast, NO overnight runs– Encourage on-the-fly analysis

– Let users tweak rules, look at results, and press submit button every 30 - 60 seconds

• Previous runs become templates for future analysis


SAT Architecture

Templates

PreviousAnalysis

SAT Engine

Apache Server

WebBrowser

UserDocuments

Services & Rules

SATExports

- Metrics & Results- Excel & HTML

Help

Runs on your computerReturns document text blocksSearch criteria many attributesSearch saved as templatesGrouped by rules & servicesFast 150 pages in 60 seconds

Works Like Internet Search Engine But

Nothing is hiddenUses predefined directories

Encourages directory accessAdd your own directories


SAT Architecture

• Rules grouped into services

• Services grouped into templates

• Templates grouped into domain

• Domains exist


Sevices and Rules

Enable and disable services and rules using these display

filters to fit your situation


Sevices and Rules

Modify, Delete, Add services and

rules


Text Blocks

Metrics

Search Counts

All Words Counts

Settings

Shape

Reading Levels

Reports


Evolution

SAT SAT SAT SAT SAT

spec writers

Designers QA Test IV&V

RelatedDocuments

Small 1-10 page

Problem StatementsProject Summaries

Architects

Uncommitted unclear position, do not begin modeling decomposing, designing, implementing until you understand & commit your stakeholders

Surface key Reqs

Consistency, completeness, testability, metrics

Evaluate docs, outline compliance, quality reqs

Specifications

Non Engineering Domains

StartedHere

NASAStudy


Massive EvolutionPlain Language Analysis

tech writing

Legislative Analysiseducation

Constitutional Analysiseducation

Med Transcript Analysisprofessional

EU Green Paper 30 pgs

Stern Review700 pgs

US Climate Change Strategic Plan

400 pgs

General DocumentAnalysis (GDA)

How do individuals, organizations, countries, international bodies solve problems, what are the tools and techniques

For Policy

Makers

From Engineering Domain


Big Picture

3. TEMPLATES

1. RULES

2. SERVICES

5. DOMAINS

COMMUNICATIONS

DEFENCE

ATC

6. PRECISE LANGUAGE INDUSTRIES

ENGINEERING

GOV REGULATION

LEGAL4. APPLICATION

.


Findings

• Green Paper: A cry out for help– Few rules & services were hit

– Vague references to markets, people & international efforts

• Stern Review: Makes case for the problem– Most rules & services were hit

– Very broad & deep

• US Strategic Plan: Starts to offer alternatives– Next step

Revelation: Systems Engineering is the Answer!http://www.cassbeth.com/gda/index.html


Path

Templates

PreviousAnalysis

SAT Engine

Apache Server

WebBrowser

UserDocument

s

Services & Rules

SATExports

- Metrics & Results- Excel & HTML

Help6. PRECISE LANGUAGE INDUSTRIES

ENGINEERING

GOV REGULATION

LEGAL

20062005

20082007 2007


Some major themes


Some Major Themes

• Systems Engineering is the Answer– Humans went to the moon

• Markets can not solve all problems– Nothing happened since the first energy crisis 30 years ago

• Sustainable Development is not new– How did we get to 6 billion people

• Past may offer a road map– Science the Endless Frontier

• Connections– memex, Internet, and libraries


Some Major Themes

• Transparency– Problems are really complex the more minds the better

• Tradeoff Methodology– Based on 5000+ years of civilization

• Architecture Alternatives– Without alternatives solution not understood

• Innovation and Creativity– It is not about patterns and process

• Freedom– e.g. publishing is in trouble along with publishing industry

• Reasonableness– Common sense needs to surface for the good of all


Systems Engineering Heart?

Architecture and Tradeoffs


Where is the Heart?

• Stake Holders

• Requirements

• Trade off Studies

• Architecture alternatives

• Architecture Select

• Design, Implement, Verify, Validate

• Maintain, Upgrade, Transition

• Decommission, Dispose

• Key Issues• Key Req’s• Modeling• Simulation• Config Mgmt


Systems Engineering

Ideal Solution

Actual Solution

Limitations

Ignorance

Limitations

TechnologyPoliticsMoneyTimeMotivationEducationPeople

Eff

ectiv

enes

s


Systems Engineering

Ideal Solution

Actual Solution

Limitations

Time

Limitations

TechnologyPoliticsMoneyTimeMotivationEducationPeople

Eff

ectiv

enes

s


Solution Scenarios

Sad Story Criminal

Miracle

Stuckt

e

No Excuse Arrogant


Value Approaches

• Lowest Cost

• Highest Profit

• ROI - Greatest Return on Investment

• TCO - Total Cost of Ownership

• IRR - Internal Rate of Return

• EVA - Economic Value Added

• ROV - Real Option Value

• ROA - Return on Assets

• ROIE - Return on Infrastructure Employed


Value Approaches

• Value is not only financial but non financial

• Some value a day at the beach more than a day at the mountains

=> Measure of Effectiveness - MOE <=

=> MOE = sum of tradeoff criteria / total cost <=


Total Cost

Life Cycle Costs - LCC

LCC = R+D+P+O+M+E+S+TR = Research

D = Development

P = Production

O = Operation

M = Maintenance

E = Waste

S = Shut Down and Decommissioning

T = Disposal


Tradeoff Matrix

• Arch 2 is 14% more effective than Arch 1

• Arch N is 7% more effective than Arch 1

• Weighted Arch 2 & Arch N are 9% more effective than Arch 1

Criteria Arch 1 Arch 2 Arch N Wt Arch 1 Arch 2 Arch NCriteria 1 5 7 9 1 5 7 9Criteria 2 5 5 8 5 25 25 40Criteria 3 5 5 6 1 5 5 6Criteria 4 5 6 6 2 10 12 12Criteria 5 5 9 8 3 15 27 24Criteria Y 5 9 8 1 5 9 8Total 30 41 45 65 85 99LCC 1 1.2 1.4 1 1.2 1.4MOE 30 34 32 65 71 71


Sensitivity Analysis

• Include current approach in tradeoff

• Include pie-in-the-sky approach in tradeoff

• Change and zero out weights

• Change and zero out ratings

Tradeoff Matrix allows you to focus on architecture deficiencies and fix or optimize

them…What if arch N elements can be moved into arch 2 for criteria 2?


Tradeoff Matrix

• Fixing Arch 2 by learning from Arch N for Criteria 2 is key

• Arch 2 is now 28% more effective than Arch 1

Criteria Arch 1 Arch 2 Arch N Wt Arch 1 Arch 2 Arch NCriteria 1 5 7 9 1 5 7 9Criteria 2 5 8 8 5 25 40 40Criteria 3 5 5 6 1 5 5 6Criteria 4 5 6 6 2 10 12 12Criteria 5 5 9 8 3 15 27 24Criteria Y 5 9 8 1 5 9 8Total 30 41 45 65 85 99LCC 1 1.2 1.4 1 1.2 1.4MOE 30 34 32 65 83 71


Tradeoff Cells

• Formal Methods based on – Math, Logic, Set Theory, Hard Sciences

• Semi Formal Methods based on – Empirical Data, Soft Sciences

• Informal Methods– Everything Else including Common Sense

=> Based on 5000 Years of Civilization <=


Ideal Architecture

Final Architecture is a fully optimized multidimensional transfer function not unlike creating a filter using inductors, capacitors,

resisters, and op amps

except

the equation is summarized in a matrix and captured in study documents...


Ok So What Do I Do From Beginning to the End...

The Process


The Process

• There is an old saying, keep it simple stupid

• What is buried in this is genius

• The sheer act of genius takes the complex and makes it simple

• I did not invent this

• This was practiced in the last century at remarkable places


Beginning to End

• Identify system boundary and why it is the boundary – Context diagram

• Identify key requirements and why you selected them– Top 10

• Identify key issues and why you selected them– Top 10

• Identify alternatives and why you selected them– 7 plus or minus 2


Beginning to End

• Draw a picture of each alternative– 1 page

• Succinctly state the essence of each alternative– 1 page and a list of 5-9 bullets

• Do a tradeoff of each alternative– Including support for 100 years, etc

• Apply science and engineering to the tradeoffs – Don't cook the books

• Identify how you will build each approach – Process, methods, tools, etc


Beginning to End

• Build a proof of concept prototype– From paper to computer simulations to physical models

• Mature the prototype at a small operational setting– Try it before you make a mistake

• Roll out to infrastructure– Slowly and learn

• There is beauty in diversity– Nothing wrong with multiple approaches and companies

• Do this like your life depends on it


Minor Problem

No one seems to be able to this any more...


Sustainable Development Project

The Proposal

Hold on to your Seats


Sustainable Development

Brundtland Commission defined sustainable development as development

that:

"meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future

generations to meet their own needs."


The Proposal is Simple

• It follows the model of Dr. Vennevar Bushs' seminal work presented to Franklin Roosevelt in the last century.

• That work is so important that it is included as an Appendix to this book,

• "Science the Endless Frontier, A Report to the President by Vannevar Bush, Director of the Office of Scientific Research and Development, July 1945".


The Program Charter

• Identify institutions that can take the lead in Sustainable Development using Creative System Engineering.

• If none exist then propose structure of such an institution or institutions and how it or they can interact with all other institutions working in this area.

• Charter also includes where and how Creative System Engineering should be rolled out to existing institutions.


Key Requirements

• Allow earth to sustain 100 billion people in 100 years

• Do not compromise current levels of freedom & liberty

• Uplift humanity so all can live to their fullest potential

• Increase level of bio diversity

• Continue to increase highest standard of industrial living

• Make highest industrial standards of living available to anyone desiring such a life style

• Most view these requirements as diametrically opposing, that is the challenge


Key Issues and Observations

• This is a politically charged area and it should NOT be so

• Humans always did Sustainable Development from step farming to safe water & sewage

• Time is of the urgency, may not be enough time for traditional science Ph.D. thesis

• The markets alone will not solve the problems


Key Issues and Observations

• In many ways markets are cause of problem

• Regulation and incentives are not the answer, look to history for guidance

• There are no impartial institutions that can address the sustainable development problem

• System engineering using science & engineering may help avert disaster in this century


Problem Approach

• Prepare major policy paper ala Vannevar Bush letter to President Roosevelt

• Start a literature search of all aspects of sustainable development

• Start a market survey of all sustainable development projects

• Establish a library of the literature search and market survey using the web


Problem Approach

• Identify institutions that might be able to take the lead in sustainable development

• Identify the level of impartiality of institutions engaged in sustainable development activities

• Propose a new institution that can take the impartial lead in sustainable development

• Tradeoff new proposed vs. current institutions for sustainable development lead charter

• Establish system engineering centers to perform independent no self interest trade studies


Publishing Approaches

Sustainable Development Possible with Creative System Engineering


Publishing Approach

• E-book– Amazon Kindle

• Traditional Book– Traditional Publishers

• Wiley Press

• Vanity Press

– Publish on Demand• Lulu.com, Createspace.com


Beyond the Book

Universities


Beyond the Book

• University of Pennsylvania - Advisor 08-09– Sustainable Village in Ghana

– EESOM: Electrical Energy Sourcing Optimization Model

• University of Pennsylvania - Advisor 09-10– Sustainable Healthcare Architecture Model

– Engineering Points4Life

– Blueprint for a Sustainable Healthcare IT Architecture

– Automotive Fuel Sustainability

• Drexel University possible curriculum additions


Links

www.cassbeth.com/book

www.amazon.com/dp/0615216307

www.cassbeth.com

www.cassbeth.com/sustainable

[email protected]


Back Up Slides

Various Topics


Final Thoughts

• It all started with Specification Analysis Tool (SAT)– Download and try it

• Don’t forget the Other Document Analysis Tools– Download and try them

• Sustainable Development Possible with Creative System Engineering – amazon.com


Policy Services & Rules• Broad Approaches

– Markets Technology Education Science Government People International Engineering Systems Alternatives

• Institutions– Academia Government Industry Labs Think Tanks NGO Non Profits

Popular Media Technical Media Associations

• Societal Approaches– Peaceful Sacrifice Stressed Violent

• Organizational Tools– Technical Process Management Gestalts Implementation

• Nation State Tools– Policy Legislation Regulation Deregulate Tax Military Departments

Resources Proactive Transparency


Policy Services & Rules• International Tools

– Policy Resources Proactive

• Social Warnings– General Human Anger Environment Health Economic Earth

• National Roles– Religion Defense Money Wealth Education Agriculture Health State

People Labor

• International Roles– People Government Industry International Academia Community Money

Time

• Special Interests– Defense Intelligence Food Health Pharmaceuticals Chemicals Mining

Energy


Broad Approaches Service

0 50 100

Alternatives

Education

Engineering

Government

International

Markets

People

Science

Systems

Technology

EU

0 500 1000 1500

Alternatives

Education

Engineering

Government

International

Markets

People

Science

Systems

Technology

UK

0 500 1000 1500 2000

Alternatives

Education

Engineering

Government

International

Markets

People

Science

Systems

Technology

US

95 Rules grouped into 12 Services

If objects examined,counts are

zero

Primary themes


Broad Approaches Service

05

101520253035

Alternatives

Education

Engineering

Governm

ent

International

Markets

People

Science

System

s

Technology

US % UK % EU %

This is misleading because the count is low

Again, basically

zero


Other Services

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Click around, look at text blocks, refine searches, gain other insights

There are Hits here, you just can’t see

them


System EngineeringThoughts

• Does it naturally emerge when challenges are great?

• Did humans invent it or just observe its emergence?

• So what is systems engineering?

• How is it different from product development in an open free market with many competitors?

• How is it different from product development in a closed market in monopoly or oligopoly?

• How do utilities fit in?

• How do non profits fit in?

Creative Systems Engineering IEEE / INCOSE Presentation Walter Sobkiw November 17, 2009.

Documents

engineering domain slide

engineering domains

system engineering

gda slide

rules services

directories slide

taffy slide

paperback slide