Creating Strategy For An Uncertain Futuretokyo.strategicbusinessinsights.com/SBIseminar/... · Creating Strategy . For An Uncertain Future . January 31, 2013. Dave Button. Vice President.

© 2013 by Strategic Business Insights. All rights reserved.

Creating Strategy For An Uncertain Future

January 31, 2013

Dave ButtonVice President

[email protected]

www.strategicbusinessinsights.com

1

SBI’s Consulting Is at the Front End

SBI

Scope Assess Develop Execute Operate

Value Leverage

(Typical Project Management Process)

2

The Future is Uncertain

There’s Too Much Information

Analysis, Strategy, and Plans Must Lead to Action

Strategic Roadmaps Help Navigate the Future

Look for Synergies

Action Roadmaps

Signposts

Our Philosophy

The Future is Uncertain

4

The Future Is Uncertain and the External Environment is Beyond our Control

• In the face of an uncertain future, the best one can do is— Consider a range of possible external developments

(Scenarios)— Evaluate your options (Strategy Initiatives)— Decide on a course of action (Strategic Roadmaps)— Monitor what actually goes on (Signposts)— Adjust as appropriate

• Scenario Planning and Strategic Roadmaps cover the uncertainty surrounding the most important strategic issues governed by the external environment.

5

Scenarios are Designed to Address Future Uncertainty

• A few different scenarios provide a sound basis for addressing uncertainties in the external environment.

• Single point estimates, including most likely cases, don’t work.

Possible External Environments

Scenario A Scenario B

Scenario C

Single-PointForecast

6

•••

•••

•••

•••

•••

•••

•••

•••

•••

•••

•••

•••

•••

•••

•••

•••

•••

•••

•••

•••

•••

Scenarios are written descriptions of how the future will unfold with emphasis on the forces and dynamics that are relevant to the strategic issues. . .

. . . Supported by detailed tabulations and other supporting materials

Drivers Scenario A Scenario B Scenario C

Economic Growth

Trade Relations

Market Structure

Industry Structure

Leading Competitors

TechnologicalChange

Supply &Demand

Scenarios are Stories that Describe Different Futures

Xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx



Scenario AXxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx




Scenario BXxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx




Scenario CXxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

There’s Too MuchInformation

8

Typical Research Findings Concerning Information

“Extracting Value from Chaos” finds that the world’s information is more than doubling every two years…growing faster than Moore’s Law (EMC)

Information is accumulating faster than any material or artifact in the world…growing at 66% per year since 1900 (TECHNIUM)

9

Decision Focus

Too Much Diverse Information Framework

Customer Priorities

Internet

Sales Channels Chip Manufacturers

Supply Capacity

EnvironmentCost of Goods Sold

Crime and Security

Public Attitudes

Design/CAD Technology

CustomerExperiences

Social PrioritiesCompetitive Structure

Use of Media

PoliticalLeaders

Work Patterns

Capital

Healthcare

New ProductsTechnology

Education andLearning

ElectronicCommerce

Populations Shifts

Price

New Media Techniques

Health of OECDEconomies

Perceptions of Risk

Privacy

IndustrializationPatterns

Corporate Demographics

Change Leader Attitudes

Value Chains

Developing Useful Intelligence When There Is Too Much Information

High ImpactLow

Uncertainty

Impa

ct

Uncertainty

High ImpactHigh

Uncertainty

Identify the most important forces and drivers that impact the Decision Focus

10

The Organization

Intelligence Systems Differ from Knowledge Systems

Knowledge systems promote efficiency (doing things well)

Intelligence systems promote effectiveness (doing the right things)

Search Search

Add

• Ask “right” questions

• Search outside of system

• Results

Intelligence System(Analysis)

• Retain “right” information

• Search inside system

Knowledge Base(Information)

11

Ask the Right Question

Decision FocusWhat products/services and supporting technologies should we develop and bring to market in order to be the leader in our industry by 2025?

This Focus helps to identify the most important information to evaluate and understand

12

Based on the Decision Focus, Identify High-Impact/High-Uncertainty Forces

High Impact, Low

UncertaintyHigh Impact,

High Uncertainty

LEVEL OFIMPACT

High

Low

HighLowDEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY

Medium to HighDEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY

IMPA

CT

These become the building blocks for developing each scenario

Medium

to High

• GDP Growth• Emerging market growth• Government fiscal policy• Trade openness• Emission regulation• Energy policies• Life cycle and

sustainability• Wireless communication

infrastructure• Water availability• Availability of critical

materials• Sensors• Advanced manufacturing• Man-machine interface• Robotics and

autonomous machines

• R&D funding and access• Customer

acceptance• Industry collaboration• Labor availability• Greater productivity• Customer operation and

management• Cost of

operation/ownership• Demographics• Innovation strategy• Capture and leveraging

date• Remote diagnosis and

repair• Service business• IP considerations

Typical High ImpactHigh Uncertainty Forces

Analysis, Strategy, and Plans Must Lead to Action

14

Issues:• Growth• Markets• Resources

Strategyand

Plans

Evaluate

Analyze

A Variety of Tools Can be Used to Create Scenario-Based Strategies

Scenarios

A

B

C

Strategy Alignment

Strategy Tables

Portfolio Selection

Threats & Opportunities

Critical Success Factors

Strengths & Weakness

Competitor Analysis

Forecasts

Outlooks Driving Forces

Influence Maps

Roadmaps Action

15

Scenario AWhat would be the threats and opportunities?

What strategies might help our business be successful?

What are the business needs?

If I were inScenario A,

then ….

Scenario CScenario B

What would be the signs towatch for?

Become Immersed in Each Scenario to Discover Strategy Alternatives

16

Strategy Alternatives are Rated Selected Based on Agreed Criteria

• Identify and prioritize key success factors by which to evaluate strategy initiatives.

• Evaluate each strategy initiative against the key success factors under each scenario.

RevenueHigh

HighManageability

ExpenditureLow

RiskLow

ImpactHigh

HighCapability

Factor Analysis Template

A B CScenariosStrategy

initiative

1

2

3

High Low

Low LowHigh Low

Strategic Roadmaps Help Navigate the Future

Example: Go from SRI to Stanford

Example: Go from SRI to Stanford

Example: Go from SRI to Stanford(Alternate Routes)

21

Strategic Roadmaps Cover More Ground than Traditional Plans

“Industry-Level” roadmaps (the landscape)• Display technology, products/services, and other business information

that surrounds the strategy• Are important for understanding competition and identifying other

external developments

Company roadmaps (Pathway or strategy)• Highlight the technologies, functionalities, products, services, and

markets that the company intends to develop• Lead to Action• Identify which external developments are critical and need to be

monitored (Signposts)• “Pathways” along with the “Industry-level” provide a basis for the

inevitable adjustments

22

The Strategic Roadmap Concept“Industry-Level” roadmaps display the overall playing field and participants Company “Pathway” roadmaps identify

the specific technologies, functional requirements, and products/services

ProductsServices

FunctionalRequirements

Technologies

Now 2 Years 5 Years

BusinessConsiderations

Need MarketCompetition

A B C

41 2 3

Pathway Milestone Signpost

A B C

“Action” roadmaps display a set of prioritized activities

ProductsServicesFunctionalRequirements

Technologies

BusinessConsiderations

Now 2 Years 5 Years

Need MarketCompetition

A B C

41 2 3

A B C

Additional Analysis

Strategy Description

•••••

B2

ProductsServices

FunctionsTechnologies

BusinessConsiderations(signposts)

Now 5 Years3 Years1 Years

B1B3

B4

P3P1

P5

T4

P2

T6T7

P4

T5T3

T2T1

Priority Actions

23

Strategic Roadmap Category Descriptions

Busine

ss

Considerations

Fina

l Market

Applications

Prod

ucts and

Services

Features and

Functio

nsRe

quire

d Techno

logies

Business Considerations give an overview of the various external conditions and factors that will influence the success of a strategy initiative.

Final Market Applications are the integrated products and services that are sold to end customers.

The component Products and Services that form part of the Final Market/Applications ultimately sold to end customers.

Features and Functions that Products and Services must embody or enable in order to be attractive in the marketplace or satisfy customer needs.

The technologies that are necessary to enable the various Products and Services, including their Features and Functions. Each enabling technology must be in place before an individual product or service can launch be launched.

“Industry-Level” Roadmap (The Possible Strategies)20202015 2025

Busine

ss

Considerations

Fina

l Market

Applications

Prod

ucts and

Services

Features and

Functio

nsRe

quire

d Techno

logies

A10A1: Platforms (Basic) A6

A2A7

A9A3

A13

A8

A4

A11

A14

A5

A15

A16 A17A12

P4P5

P2P3

P17

P24

P23

P1

P18

P6

P7P8: Real‐Time Efficiency Feedback

P10P9

P11P19

P22P14

P16P15

P29P28

P12P20

P27

P25 P26

P13

P21

P30P31

P1A

B1

B8

B6

B7

B10

B3B2: Customer Acceptance

B5B4 B9

B12

T2T3

T18: Advanced Sensors

T12 T26

T13

T1: Sensors

T9

T17T24

T23

T15

T7T6

T5: Advanced Displays

T10

T19

T20

T14

T11

T8

T4

T21

T22

T16T25

T8AT27

24T28

F1: CustomizableF3

F2

F5F4

F7

F17: Improved Efficiency

F19F13

F6 F21F18F14F10

F11F20

F8F9

F15F12 F16 F22

F23

“Pathway” (The Company’s Chosen Strategy)20202015 2025

B1

B6 B10

B2: Customer Acceptance

F5


F21F18

T2

T3 T18: Advanced Sensors

T12

T1: Sensors

T23T15


T19

T20

T14

T8

T4

T21

F15

A9 A14

A15

F8

P22

P14

P16

P8: Real‐time Efficiency FeedbackP29

P30

T8A

T27

B12

Busine

ss

Considerations

Fina

l Market

Applications

Prod

ucts and

Services

Features and

Functio

nsRe

quire

d Techno

logies

25

A1: Platforms (Basic)

P15

A4

F1: Customizable

F7:

26

Roadmap Element Descriptions—Examples of Products and Services# Product/

Service Product/Service Description Features/Functions and Benefits

Final Market/ Applications

Key Technologies/ Capabilities

P6

P7

P8 Real-Time Efficiency Feedback

Visual, auditory, and tactile feedback that helps monitor efficiency on an ongoing basis

F1: Customizable; F5: F7: F8: F17: Improved Efficiency

A1: Platforms (Basic)A4:

T1: Sensors T2: T3:T5: Advanced Displays

P9

P10

P11

27

20202015 2025

Fina

l Market

Applications

Prod

ucts and

Services

Features and

Functio

nsRe

quire

d Techno

logies

F1: Customizable

F5:

F7: F17: Improved Efficiency

T2:

T3:

T1: Sensors


F8:


A4:

P8: Real‐Time Efficiency Feedback

P8: Real-Time Efficiency Feedback—Related Markets, Features, and Technologies

Look for Synergies

29

A Technology Concept Matrix Helps Identify Priorities and Hedge Technology Bets

LEGEND:

Gray boxes show the intersections of technology concepts and the products/services they support.

Yellow highlighting indicates tech concept with high leverage across products/services.

Action Roadmaps

31

“Action” Roadmaps Follow from “Industry-Level” and “Pathway” Roadmaps

“Action” roadmaps display a set of prioritized activities to implement the pathway…

…keeping in mind general project management practices

“Industry-Level” roadmaps display the overall playing field and strategy possibilities

“Pathway” roadmaps display the specific technologies, functional requirements, and products/services for a company to develop20202015 2025

Business

Considerations

Final M

arket

/Applications

Products and

Services

Features and

Functio

nsRe

quire

d Technologies

A10A1: Platforms (Basic) A6

A2A7

A9A3

A13

A8

A4

A11

A14

A5

A15

A16 A17A12

P4P5

P2P3

P17

P24

P23

P1

P18

P6

P7P8: Real‐Time Efficiency Feedback

P10P9

P11P19

P22P14

P16P15

P29P28

P12P20

P27

P25 P26

P13

P21

P30P31

P1A

B1

B8

B6

B7

B10

B3B2: Customer Acceptance

B5B4 B9

B12

T2T3

T18: Advanced Sensors

T12 T26

T13

T1: Sensors

T9

T17T24

T23

T15

T7T6


T10

T19

T20

T14

T11

T8

T4

T21

T22

T16

T25

T8AT27

25T28

F1: Customizable

F3F2

F5

F4

F7


F19F13

F6 F21F18

F14F10

F11F20

F8

F9

F15F12 F16 F22

F23

20202015 2025B1

B6 B10

B2: Customer Acceptance

F5


F21F18

T2

T3 T18: Advanced Sensors

T12

T1: Sensors

T23T15


T19

T20

T14

T8

T4

T21

F15

A9 A14

A15

F8

P22

P14

P16

P8: Real‐time Efficiency FeedbackP29

P30

T8A

T27

B12

Busin

ess

Considerations

Fina

l Markets

/App

sProd

ucts and

Services

Features an

dFunctio

nsRe

quire

d Techno

logies


P15

A4

F1: Customizable

F7:

32

General Project Management ConsiderationsCovered in Initial Strategic Roadmaps

Scope Screen Design ImplementOperate

Follow-up• Enlist owner and

team• Define concept• Agree on strategic

and business fit• Document drivers

and assumptions• Describe basic

costs and benefits• Outline overall

approach• Secure approval

• Enlist owner and team

• Identify critical success factors

• Identify potential approaches

• Identify required capabilities

• Select best approach

• Prepare initial business plan

• Develop project plan


• Prepare preliminary design

• Identify resource requirements

• Confirm critical success factors

• Finalize business and project plans

• Develop implementation plan


• Finalize detailed plans

• Create procedure guidelines

• Finalize budgets and secure funds

• Execute implementation plan

• Track implementation progress

• Assign full-time management and operating responsibility

• Operate• Benchmark

performance• Perform post-

project review• Perform periodic

strategic reviews

Monitor Strategic Developments in the External Environment

33

Final MarketApplications

Technologies

Business Considerations

Monitoring/ Signpost Topics

“Action Roadmap”

Products and Services

Near-term (~2012 to 2015)

Priority Actions

Fundamental Project Management Actions

Actions Relating to:

AT52AT51 AT53

AT50: Conduct new technology development programsT1: Sensors T2 T3 T4T5: Advanced Displays T8 T8A T12

T14 T15 T20 T28

AT50: Conduct… programs

T18: Advanced Sensors T21T27

AT54

AP52AP51

AP50: Conduct new product/service development programs

P8: Real-time Efficiency FeedbackP14 P15 P16

AP53

AP50: Conduct…programs

P22P29 P30

AM7

AM8

AM1 : Establish Strategic Monitoring Capabilities

AM9

AM10

AM11

AB4AB3 AB5 AB6

AB9: Agree on business model AB10 AB11

AB7 AB8

AB1: Verify and establish Pathway AB2

Long-term (~2016 to 2025)

AA51 AA52

AA50: Conduct new market/application programsA1: Platforms (Basic) A4 A9 A15

AA50: Conduct… programs

A14

AA53

AM6: Customer Acceptance

34

Actions: Monitoring/Signpost Topics

Action # Action Name Description of Key Action Items

AM1 Establish strategic monitoring capabilities

Product/Service teams establish a monitoring system that tracks developments in the external environment related to topics of strategic interest for the Pathway :•Identify and enlist a monitoring team•Develop support capabilities (staff, tools, etc.)•Develop issues to be monitored --- Signposts

– External issues that have a significant impact on success or failure

– Signpost metrics and events specified as narrowly as possible •Develop reporting system with alerts and feedback•Revise monitoring system according to operational insights

AM2

AM3

Signposts

36

What are Signposts?

Signposts are the set of issues in the external environment that are important to monitor (because they can have a great influence on the success of the Pathway).

Signposts delineate what to watch for, and then specify appropriate threshold metrics or specific events.

Signposts are the counterpart of project milestones. They indicate progress relative to the external environment rather than internal developments. Ideally, signposts are reviewed along with project milestones.

37

Signpost Development for Customer Acceptance (Related to Advanced Displays)

Req

uire

d Te

chno

logi

esS

ignp

ost T

opic

sFi

nal M

arke

tA

pplic

atio

ns

AM6: Customer Acceptance

2012 2015 2026

P8: Real-time Efficiency Feedback

TT5: Advanced Displays

A1:Platforms (Basic)

Pro

duct

s/S

ervi

ces

T1: Sensors

Signposts are the set of issues in the external environment that are important to monitor.

Signposts delineate what to watch for, and then specify appropriate threshold metrics or specific events.

38


#Signpost

Topic DescriptionWhy is it

important?

Signposts

What to watch for? Specific EventsAM6: Customer

Acceptance:

Advanced Displays

Customer acceptance of large-screen, high-resolution displays with advanced 3D graphics processing and industry-leading user interface design.

Impacts the commercial success and timing of operator controlled systems with advanced displays, as well as, the design and development of new interfaces and supporting systems that promote overall efficiency.

• Signposts need to be as specific as possible in terms of what to watch for• Ideally, they should refer to an inflection point critical to the Market/Application

(Product or Technology) in question

39


#Signpost


important?

Signposts


Acceptance:

Advanced Displays



• Acceptance of advanced displays in automated manufacturing, aircraft, and various industrial applications

• Incorporation of 3D rendering graphics in displays

• General advances in display technology in terms of cost and performance



40


#Signpost


important?

Signposts


Acceptance:

Advanced Displays



• Acceptance of advanced displays in automated manufacturing, aircraft, and various industrial applications

• Accelerating rates of advanced display adoption in “comparable” circumstances

• Incorporation of 3D rendering graphics in displays

• Automakers introduce hardware-accelerated 3D rendering for telematics

• General advances in display technology in terms of cost and performance

• Significant breakthroughs in display cost and performance, e.g. 25% cost reduction from leading vendor



Appendix

42

Summary of a Scenario/Strategy/Roadmap Project

Strategic Initiatives from Strategy Master Table

3 Scenario Stories and Force Table

High Impact ForcesThe External Environment

Pathway

Strategy Initiatives Rating Across the 3 Scenarios

Industry Roadmap

Actions

Selected Initiatives

Concerns:•Academic•Research•Clinical Practice

Decision Focus: What programs and innovations in medical education, research, and clinical practices should be catalyzed in order to enhance the overall growth, effectiveness, and impact of radiology on patient health over the next 5-10 years?

Level of Impact

Medium

Degree of Uncertainty

High Impact Low

Uncertainty

High Impact High

UncertaintyHigh

Low

High MediumLow

Level of Impact

Medium

Degree of Uncertainty

High Impact Low

Uncertainty

High Impact High

UncertaintyHigh

Low

High MediumLow

Product Service Provider Target Location Technology

Skills Source

Quality Clinical Quality metrics for national radiology standards 336, 510

Research outcomes data correlation service 398

SCARD Radiologists U.S. Academic medical centers

Reimbursement

"Patient f irst" culture

Quality control tools

Designing metrics - performance, quality

Internal development

Government approvals

Improved patient care/outcome

Standards for imaging in care pathw ays 466

Promotion of radiology quality and benefits 455

Academic radiology departments

Mid-levels NIH Pay for performance, qualtiy

Alliance w ith insurers

Smart image processing

Data analysis Consultants New payment/reimbursement codes

Low er radiation exposure

Updated standards database for radiology equipment 482

Quality control for non-radiology interpretation 530

Academic medical centers

Insurers Establising a brand

Appeal to patients to demand quality

Comparative effectiveness studies

Service quality control

Standards setting organizations

Funding (NIH)

Reduced liability

Radiology best practices alignment / consolidation 317

Rating service - radiologists, data quality, equipment 305, 365, 381

Clinics CMS (new )

Data analytics softw are/ harw are

Personal performance measurement

PR, marketing, advertising f irms

Variation-reduction best practices 434, 436

RBM order entry decision support service, 429, 431

Hospitals Equipment venders

Data mining Best practice analysis

Radiation dosage online system 361 366

Emergency rooms

RBMs Data bases - outcomes, practioners, etc

Best practice experience recording/capture

Comparative effectiveness studies 331, 434, 300

Primary care physicians

Low er-dose X-ray, CT etc. technology

IT integration - multiple specialties

Patients PR, marketing, advertising, logo design

Other Requirem

ents

Partnerships

Business Model

Features

Organiza-tional

Behavior

Required CapabilitiesValue Propositio

n

Domain Offer ing

Value Proposition

Domain

Offering Partnerships Business Model Features

Organiza-tional

Behavior

Required Capabilities Other Require

mentsProduct Service Provider Target Location Technology

Skills Source

Higher safety Clinical Imaging Utilization databases 441

Variation-reducing best practices advisory service, 436

SCARD Radiologists

U.S. ACR, ABR, RSNA and other radiology organizations

Establising a brand

"Patient first" culture

Data bases -outcomes, practioners, etc

Data analysis

Private sector vendrors -equipment

Government certification

Expanded leadership

Research

Home diagnostics (i.e. ultrasound) 358

Radiologists in patient advisory groups 531,534

ACR Patients Equipment mfrs

Certification

Patient and family centered care

Lower-dose X-ray, CT etc. technology

Social media

Private sector vendrors -IT, telecom

Personal health records

Reduced liability

Radiation safety protocols 344

Medical procedure compliance service 374

Government

Patients' families

Enterprise software developers e.g. SAP

Co-opetition

Centralization of utilization data

Data management

Designing metrics -performance, quality

PR, marketing, advertising firms

Low-dose imaging 337

Government agencies

Database developers e.g. Oracle

Location of and sharing of information and data

Equipment design

Standards setting organizations

Radiation dosage online system 361 366

Community of patients

Equipment venders

Data visualization

Data visualization design for untrained consumers

Other academic departments

PR campaign for radiologists to improve image 327, 383

General public

Low-dose CT

R&D

Consumers of medical information

Best practice experience recording/capture

22 strategic initiatives

Worst (=1) Average (=2) Best (=3) CommentsStrategic Impact(in 5-10 yrs)

Weak position with low or negative impact under the scenario

Positioned for survival with some positive financial/market impact under the scenario

Moves SCARD/radiology to a strong position with positive financial/market impact in the scenario

Economic Benefit to SCARD/radiology(in 5-10 yrs)

Less than 2% revenue growth/yr or narrows margin

2-5% revenue growth/yr or stable margin

More than 5% revenue growth/yr or increases margin

Fit Complicated in terms of transaction, culture, reorganization (gaps, overlaps)

Poor match with SCARD/radiology’s core competencies and technical capabilities

Straightforward in some aspects, complex in others

Matches some of SCARD/radiology’s core competencies and technical capability

Straightforward transaction, compatible cultures, minimal reorganization, fills gaps, few overlaps

Extends SCARD/radiology’s core competencies and adds key technical capabilities

Resource Expenditures

Large, immediate outlay for resources

Requires more than 20% of mgmt time, or more than 5% of budgetin next 5-10 yrs

Intermediate outlay for resources

Requires 10-20% of mgmt time, or 3-5% of budget in next 5-10 yrs

Low, long-term outlay/ requirements for resources

Requires less than 10% of mgmt time, or less than 3 % of budget in next 5-10 yrs

Risk Likelihood of success of the above is uncertain or penalty for failure is high, little flexibility in strategy for adjustments

Some likelihood of success of the above or acceptable penalty for failure, some flexibility for adjustments later

Likelihood of success of the above is high or low penalty for failure, high flexibility in strategy for adjustments





Value add, only radiologists can do it


















Integrated care teams and EMRs provide information on patients




EMRs provide information on patients









Depends on radiology being the driver














Lot of management time




AB1: Create an Organization and Manage the Quality Initiative

Product/Services Program

Implementation*

MonitoringSignpostTopics

Strategic Initiative Organization

2012 2013 2015

AE1: Establish Strategic Monitoring Capability

AP1: Create Organizations to Manage Each Product/Service Program

20142011

E01: Healthcare Reform

E02: Capitated Systems

E03 Competing Quality Training

E04: Ownership Locus of E-Health

E05: EMR Vendor Products

E06: Proliferation of Quality Improvement Templates (P17)

E07: Sub-Specialty View of Structured Reports (P24)

E09: ACGME Rules/Regulations (P22)

E10: ACR Profit Model/Mission

E08: M&A of Healthcare Systems

P20: Dieter’s Can’t Miss List

P04: Radiology K.P.I. Registry& Dashboard (Rad-Dash)

P03: “How-To” Manual for Residents’ Rotation

P22: LEAN: Translate TPS for Radiology

P17: Compendium of Quality Templates

P24: Structured Reporting

P12: TimeSurvey Tool

Signpost DevelopmentTe

chno

logi

es/

Capa

bilit

ies/

Feat

ures

Criti

cal E

xter

nal

Cons

ider

atio

nsPr

oduc

ts/S

ervi

ces

P10: E-Journal: Trends in Radiation Safety

P20: Dieter’s Can’t Miss List

P04: Radiology K.P.I. Registry& Dashboard (Rad-Dash)

P09: E-Journal:Operations Metrics

P06: Z-Vision

P01: Multi-Platform Freeware Tool

P03: “How-To” Manual for Residents’ Rotation

P22: LEAN: Translate TPS for Radiology

P15: No Faculty Left Behind

P18: Decision Support Request for Proposal

P17: Compendium of Quality Templates

P24: Structured Reporting

P19: E-Journal:Quality Med Portal

P08: E-Journal:Operations Metrics

P11: E-Journal:IR Complications

P21: Peer ReviewDeluxe

P16: Six Sigma Project Template

P14: Certificationin Quality

P07: RadQual and Safety Recurrence

P13: RadiationAccel Yardstick

2012 2013 2014

P05: Quality Gap Corrector

P02: Master’s Degree:Rad. Safety & Quality

P12: TimeSurvey Tool

P23: DeiterReport

T01: Web Site Manager & IT Tools

T02: Software Designer/Programmer

T03: Access to Data

T04: Interface IR Complications DB

T05: Online Education & Testing

T06: Technical Publishing

T07: Operational Dashboard Interface

T08: Software Tools

T09: Web-Based Quality Consensus

T10: Rad. Dose Team (E-Journal)

T11: Dashboard: Mgmt Reporting

T12: Software/Team for Peer Review DBs

T13: E-Tools for Mentor Contacts System

T14: Project Manager forMeasuring Time to

Dx or Treatment

T15: Team to Translate LEAN for Radiology

T16: Six Sigma

T17: Team to Define Radiology Needs Report

T18: Integrated Educational DB

T19: Technical Publishing, Process Maps

T20: Decision Systems

T21: Technical Publication, Editorial Function

T22: Guide for Utilization Mgmt

T23: Standardization for Reports

T24: Consensus Panel

E01: Healthcare Reform

E02: Capitated Systems

E03 Competing Quality Training

E04: Ownership Locus of E-Health

E05: EMR Vendor Products

E07: Sub-Specialty View of Structured Reports (P24)

E09: ACGME Rules/Regulations (P22)

E10: ACR Profit Model/Mission

E08: M&A of Healthcare Systems

E06: Proliferation of Quality Improvement Templates (P17)

Tech

nolo

gies

/Ca

pabi

litie

s/Fe

atur

esSi

gnpo

st T

opic

sPr

oduc

ts/S

ervi

ces

2013 2014 20152012

P203: Subspecialty Academic

Tele-radiology

T208: Cloud-Based Image/Report ExchangeT209: RIS/PACS Face Time

T203: Web-based Technology

E202: Healthcare Reform (all)E208: Patient-Centered Medical Home (P203)

Signpost topics are the set of issues that are important to watch. They may apply to all Product/Service programs within the pathway, or be particular to a given Product/Service.Signposts are created by delineating what to watch for, and then specifying appropriate threshold metrics or specific events.# Description Why it is important What to watch for

E202 Capitation and Pay For Performance

As revenue dries up, opportunities for generating additional funds from other radiology departments and healthcare delivery systems will also diminish

• Direction of Congressional voting on pay issues related to health care

E208 Local delivery of healthcare to patients from a designated source

Work outside of a system or hospital will be less easily reimbursed

• Increased focus on and penetration of gatekeepers

• Increased numbers of primary care practitioners

• Greater competition for trainers entering primary care

43

SBI’s Recent Scenario Planning Engagements

For SCARD (Society of Chairman of Academic Radiology Departments)• Three planning scenarios

— Socialized Medicine— Entrepreneurialism— Freefall

• Strategy Initiatives• Roadmaps being completed

For the National Intelligence Council (NIC)• An “Energy Acceleration” scenario as a companion to ongoing scenario

research related to U.S. Climate Change Mitigation Efforts

For the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)• Three scenarios

— Too Little Too Late?— Green Chaos— Carbon Junkies

• Policy initiatives• Corresponding roadmaps

http://www.ppi.noaa.gov/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/Scenarios-5-28-09.pdf

http://www.ppi.noaa.gov/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/Scenarios-5-28-09.pdf

44

SBI’s Recent Scenario Planning EngagementsFor a North American Telecommunications Company

• Three scenarios• Strategic initiatives

For a Chemical Company • Three scenarios

— Fractured World— Double Dip— Innovators

For several International Companies:Electronics, Autos, Heavy Equipment Manufacturer etc.

• Three scenarios• Strategic initiatives • Corresponding roadmaps

For two different departments in a major Consumer Products Company• Three planning scenarios for each department (Topics and scenario names

confidential)For a few Companies

• Update of prior SBI scenario packages

Creating Strategy For An Uncertain Futuretokyo.strategicbusinessinsights.com/SBIseminar/... · Creating Strategy . For An Uncertain Future . January 31, 2013. Dave Button. Vice President.

Documents