Creating a low carbon future by Von Dollen, EPRI

Don Von DollenProgram Manager, IntelliGrid

October 6, 2009

Creating a

Low-Carbon Future

© 2009 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.

Critical Conclusions

•With achievement of aggressive but technically feasible levels of technology performance and deployment, annual U.S. electric sector CO2 emissions could be reduced by 41% by 2030.

•An optimal technical and economic strategy is comprised of aggressive end-use efficiency and a diverse generation technology portfolio.– Ensures technological resiliency.– Lowers cost of emissions reductions by ~37%.

•All technologies not yet ready - focused, sustained research, development and demonstration over the next 20 years is necessary.

•Decarbonized electricity will be critical in reducing costs of reducing CO2 emissions from transportation and other economic sectors.


Presentation Overview

The Technology Challenge

Meeting The Challenge

Decisions Over the Next Decade will

Shape the Electricity Future of 2050

De-carbonize the electricity infrastructure and meet binding economy-wide CO2 reduction targets

Provide reliable, affordable, and environmentally responsible electricity

Technically feasible with a full portfolio of generation options


The CO2 ChallengeB

illio

n t

on

s C

O2

Historical Emissions

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

U.S. Electric Sector

Remainder of U.S.

Economy

83% Reduction in CO2

emissions below 2005

Assumed Economy-wide CO2 Reduction Target

(with no international offsets)2005 = 5982 mmT CO2

2030 = 42% below 2005 (3470 mmT CO2)

1017 mmT CO2


0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

U.S

. E

lect

ric

Sec

tor

CO

2 E

mis

sio

ns

(mil

lio

n m

etri

c to

ns)

2007

2008

2009

U. S. Electric Sector CO2 Emissions

EIA Base Case


Prism Technology Analysis

Bottoms-up performance and cost analysis of key technology options to reduce electric sector CO2 emissions

– Based on domain expert evaluation of feasible technology performance, deployment improvements

– Performance and technology advancements

Presumes sustained, successful RD&D

Updated annually


2009 Prism

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

U.S

. E

lect

ric

Sec

tor

CO

2 E

mis

sio

ns

(mil

lio

n m

etri

c to

ns)

Efficiency

Renewables

Nuclear

41% reduction in 2030 from 2005 level is technically feasible using a full portfolio of electric sector

technologies

41%CCS

Fossil Efficiency

Technology EIA Base Case EPRI Prism Target

Efficiency Load Growth ~ +0.95%/yr

8% Additional Consumption Reduction by 2030

T&D Efficiency None 20% Reduction in T&D Losses by 2030

Renewables

60 GWe by 2030 135 GWe by 2030 (15% of generation)

Nuclear12.5 GWe New Build by 2030

No Retirements; 10 GWe New Build by 2020; 64 GWe New Build by 2030

FossilEfficiency

40% New Coal,

54% New NGCCs by

2030

+3% Efficiency for 75 GWe Existing Fleet

49% New Coal; 70% New NGCCs by 2030

CCS None90% Capture for New Coal + NGCC

After 2020Retrofits for 60 GWe Existing Fleet


2009 Prism – PEV and Electro-Technologies

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

U.S

. E

lect

ric

Sec

tor

CO

2 E

mis

sio

ns

(mil

lio

n m

etri

c to

ns)

Efficiency

Renewables

Nuclear

CCS

Fossil Efficiency

Technology EIA AEO Base Case EPRI Prism Target

Electric Transportatio

nNone

PHEVs by 201040% New Vehicle Share by 2025

3x Current Non-Road Use by 2030

Electro-technologies None Replace ~4.5% Direct Fossil Use

by 2030

Low-carbon generation enables electrification and CO2 reductions in other

sectors of economy

Electro-Technologies

PEV


MERGE Economic Analysis

Optimization Model of Economic Activity and Energy Use through 2050 – Maximize Economic Wealth

Inputs– Energy Supply Technologies and Costs

for Electric Generation and Non-Electric Energy

Constraints– Greenhouse Gas Control Scenarios– Energy Resources

Outputs– Economy-wide Impact of Technology and

Carbon Constraints


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Tri

llio

n k

Wh

pe

r y

ea

r

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Tri

llio

n k

Wh

pe

r y

ea

rMERGE U.S. Electric Generation Mix

Limited Portfolio

Full Portfolio

Coal

Gas

Wind

Demand Reduction

New Coal + CCSCoal

Gas

WindNuclear

Demand Reduction

Nuclear

Solar

Biomass

Hydro

CCS Retrofit

Biomass

Hydro


Key Technology Portfolio Insights

•Aggressive energy efficiency needed with either portfolio– 52% Increase in Demand Reduction with Limited

Portfolio

•Over 20% renewables generation share by 2030 with either portfolio– >50% renewables by 2050 with limited portfolio

•If availability of new nuclear and CCS post 2020 uncertain, natural gas power production expands rapidly– Limited Portfolio – Gas Consumption Increases

275% from 2010 to 2050


MERGE Wholesale Electricity Cost Results

2007 U.S. Average Wholesale Electricity Cost

Limited Portfolio

Full Portfolio

$/M

wh

(20

07$

)

2020 2030 2040 2050

Limited Portfolio

Full Portfolio

$0

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120

$140

$160

$180

$200

$220

210%

80%


Substantial increases in the cost of electricity

2050


Meeting the Challenge


Limited Portfolio

Full Portfolio

$/M

wh

(20

07$

)

2020 2030 2040 2050


Limited Portfolio

Full Portfolio

$0

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120

$140

$160

$180

$200

$220

Technology Actions Based on Meeting the Prism Technology Targets

Technology Innovation to De-carbonize While Achieving a Cost of Electricity Near

Today’s Level

RD&D and Deployment Challenge

Innovation Challenge


The Technology Challenge

Meeting the Challenge

The Electricity Technology Challenge


BACKUP SLIDES


Limited Portfolio

Full Portfolio

Wh

ole

sale

Ele

ctri

cit

y C

os

t (2

007

cen

ts/k

Wh

)

Emissions Intensity (metric tons CO2 /MWh)

Cost

of

Ele

ctr

icit

y

De-Carbonization

20202030

2040

20502020

2030

2040

2050

MERGE De-carbonization Results

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

0.000.100.200.300.400.500.600.70

2007

MERGE Projections 2020-2050

2020 2030

2040

205020202030

2040

2050

Limited Portfolio

Full Portfolio

High Cost to meet 2050 Reduction Target with >80% Generation Mix

Gas and Renewables


Limited Portfolio

Full Portfolio

Wh

ole

sale

Ele

ctri

cit

y C

os

t (2

007

cen

ts/k

Wh

)

Emissions Intensity (metric tons CO2 /MWh)

Cost

of

Ele

ctr

icit

y

De-Carbonization

20202030

2040

20502020

2030

2040

2050

Conclusion

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

0.000.100.200.300.400.500.600.70

2007

MERGE Projections 2020-2050

2020 2030

2040

205020202030

2040

2050

Limited Portfolio

Full Portfolio

Electricity policy and technology actions over the next decade will to a great extent

shape the electricity future of 2050


MERGE Wholesale Electricity Cost Results


Limited Portfolio

Full Portfolio

$/M

wh

(20

07$

)

2020 2030 2040 2050

Limited Portfolio

Full Portfolio

$0

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120

$140

$160

$180

$200

$220

173%

Substantial increases in the cost of electricity

2050


-3.5

-3.0

-2.5

-2.0

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

Impact on U.S. Economy of Policy:80% Below 1990 by 2050

Value of R&D Investment

Cost of Policy

Reduction in Policy Cost with Advanced Technology

Ad

van

ced

tec

hn

olo

gie

s w

ith

ou

t C

CS

or

new

Nu

cle

ar

Creating a low carbon future by Von Dollen, EPRI

Technology

electric generation

cost of electricity

technology challenge

gwe new build

technology advancements

technology actions

electric sector remainder

electric transportation