CREACION DE CURVAS IDFS, APARTIR DE PRECIPITACIONES

ESTACIÓN junito alertas japio

1979 78 48Tr (años)

10 MIN 30 MIN

1980 71 571981 89 58 2 0.202 0.39

1982 66 71 5 0.21 0.42

1983 115 63.8 10 0.219 0.448

1984 83 79 20 0.227 0.47

1985 78 112 50 0.235 0.494

1986 76 60.5 100 0.241 0.509

1987 70 83.6 máximo 0.241 0.509

1988 138 70.5 Promedio 0.222 0.455

1989 69 95.21990 80 78.81991 76 84.4 10 minutos 30 minutos 60 minutos

1992 110 110 6 2 1

1993 80 641994 116 321995 102 83

Media 88.06 73.58Desv.stand 20.60 20.78

n = 17 17

Tr

Precipitación esperada máxima en 24 horas (P24h Tr)

GUMBEL SIN CORREGIR GUMBEL CORREGIDA LOG NORMAL

ESTACION 7 ESTACION 8 ESTACION 7 ESTACION 8 ESTACION 7 ESTACION 8

2 84.674 70.163 85.059 70.551 86.512 71.140

5 102.883 88.526 107.491 93.173 103.210 91.448

10 114.938 100.683 122.343 108.150 113.508 104.700

25 130.170 116.044 141.108 127.075 125.621 120.950

50 141.470 127.440 155.030 141.114 134.124 132.763

100 152.687 138.751 168.848 155.049 142.264 144.374

Tr

ESTACION 7GUMBEL SIN CORREGIR

10 30 60 90 120 150I [mm/h] I [mm/h] I [mm/h] I [mm/h] I [mm/h] I [mm/h]

2 102.63 66.05 41.32 29.64 23.88 20.19

P 10/P MAX(24H)

P 30/P MAX(24H)

5 106.69 71.13 44.71 31.95 25.78 21.7110 111.26 75.87 47.84 34.10 27.52 23.1725 115.33 79.59 50.38 35.85 28.92 24.2850 119.39 83.66 53.01 37.71 30.44 25.54

100 122.44 86.20 54.70 38.84 31.37 26.32

60 MIN 90 MIN 120 MIN 150 MIN 180 MIN

0.488 0.525 0.564 0.596 0.612

0.528 0.566 0.609 0.641 0.655

0.565 0.604 0.65 0.684 0.696

0.595 0.635 0.683 0.717 0.729

0.626 0.668 0.719 0.754 0.764

0.646 0.688 0.741 0.777 0.787

0.646 0.688 0.741 0.777 0.787

0.575 0.614 0.661 0.695 0.707

90 minutos 120 minutos 150 minutos 180 minutos

0.67 0.50 0.40 0.33

Precipitación esperada máxima en 24 horas (P24h Tr)

LOG PEARSON III

ESTACION 7 ESTACION 8

83.334 67.450

101.604 89.429

114.922 106.561

133.106 131.333

147.646 152.209

163.054 175.300

ESTACION 7 ESTACION 8

GUMBEL SIN CORREGIR GUMBEL SIN CORREGIR

180 10 30 60 90 120 150 180

I [mm/h] I [mm/h] I [mm/h] I [mm/h] I [mm/h] I [mm/h] I [mm/h] I [mm/h]

17.27 85.04 54.73 34.24

P 60/P MAX(24H)

P 90/P MAX(24H)

P 120/P MAX(24H)

P 150/P MAX(24H)

P 180/P MAX(24H)

18.49 88.41 58.94 37.0519.64 92.19 62.87 39.6420.58 98.93 65.95 41.7521.56 98.93 69.32 43.9222.21 101.46 71.43 45.33

AÑO PP LN PP1979 78 4.35671980 71 4.26271981 89 4.48861982 66 4.18971983 115 4.74491984 83 4.41881985 78 4.35671986 76 4.33071987 70 4.24851988 138 4.92731989 69 4.23411990 80 4.38201991 76 4.33071992 110 4.70051993 80 4.38201994 116 4.75361995 102 4.6250

N Años 17Px media del caudal 88.06Ϭx deviacion estandar 20.60U Coeficiente de asimeria 1.17X probabilidad 4.45

Ϭxln logaritmo natural 0.22Uln logaritmo natural Coeficiente de asimeria 0.87

Sn17SEGÚN TABLA 1

1.0411 periodo de retornoYn17 0.5181 Tr

25

102550

100

TABLA 1 PARA PROBABILIDAD GUMBEL

TABLA 2 PARA LOG NORMAL

TABLA 3 PARA PROBABILIDAD PEARSON III

GUMBELSin corregir (tiende a infinito)

1/Tr 1-P -LN(-LN(Fx)) λ∞ = (y-0.5772)/1.2826 X∞ = P + λ∞Ϭx P (probabilidad) F(x) Y λ∞ X∞

0.5 0.5 0.367 -0.164 84.6740.2 0.8 1.500 0.719 102.8830.1 0.9 2.250 1.305 114.938

0.04 0.96 3.199 2.044 130.1700.02 0.98 3.902 2.592 141.4700.01 0.99 4.600 3.137 152.687




GUMBEL LOG NORMAL LOG PEARSON IIICorregida (17 años)

λ17 = (Y-Yn)/Sn X17 = P+ λ17Ϭx Z (TABLA 2) e^(X+Z*Ϭxln) U (TABLA 3) e^(X+U*Ϭxln)λ17 = (Y-Yn)/Sn X17 Z X U -0.9 X

-0.146 85.059 0.0251 86.5 -0.14807 83.30.943 107.491 0.8416 103.2 0.76902 101.61.664 122.343 1.2816 113.5 1.33889 114.92.575 141.108 1.7507 125.6 2.01848 133.13.250 155.030 2.0537 134.1 2.49811 147.63.921 168.848 2.3263 142.3 2.95735 163.1


AÑO PP LN PP1979 48 3.87121980 57 4.04311981 58 4.06041982 71 4.26271983 63.8 4.15581984 79 4.36941985 112 4.71851986 60.5 4.10261987 83.6 4.42601988 70.5 4.25561989 95.2 4.55601990 78.8 4.36691991 84.4 4.43561992 110 4.70051993 64 4.15891994 32 3.46571995 83 4.4188

N Años 17Px media del caudal 73.58Ϭx deviacion estandar 20.78U Coeficiente de asimeria 0.1X probabilidad 4.26

Ϭxln logaritmo natural 0.31Uln logaritmo natural Coeficiente de asimeria -0.8

Sn17SEGÚN TABLA 1

1.0411 periodo de retornoYn17 0.5181 Tr

25

102550

100




GUMBELSin corregir (tiende a infinito)

1/Tr 1-P -LN(-LN(Fx)) λ∞ = (y-0.5772)/1.2826 X∞ = P + λ∞Ϭx P (probabilidad) F(x) Y λ∞ X∞

0.5 0.5 0.367 -0.164 70.20.2 0.8 1.500 0.719 88.50.1 0.9 2.250 1.305 100.7

0.04 0.96 3.199 2.044 116.00.02 0.98 3.902 2.592 127.40.01 0.99 4.600 3.137 138.8




GUMBEL LOG NORMAL LOG PEARSON IIICorregida (17 años)

λ17 = (Y-Yn)/Sn X17 = P+ λ17Ϭx Z (TABLA 2) e^(X+Z*Ϭxln) U (TABLA 3) e^(X+U*Ϭxln)λ17 = (Y-Yn)/Sn X17 Z X U -0.9 X

-0.146 70.6 0.0251 71.1 -0.14807 67.50.943 93.2 0.8416 91.4 0.76902 89.41.664 108.2 1.2816 104.7 1.33889 106.62.575 127.1 1.7507 120.9 2.01848 131.33.250 141.1 2.0537 132.8 2.49811 152.23.921 155.0 2.3263 144.4 2.95735 175.3


AÑO

ESTACIÓN

1965 - 61.501966 - 76.301967 - 73.001968 - 53.201969 - 62.401970 - 70.201971 - 65.101972 - 92.701973 - 45.001974 - 120.001975 - 74.201976 - 51.701977 - 80.001978 - 92.701979 78.00 48.001980 71.00 57.001981 89.00 58.001982 66.00 71.001983 115.00 63.801984 83.00 79.001985 78.00 112.001986 76.00 60.501987 70.00 83.601988 138.00 70.501989 69.00 95.201990 80.00 78.801991 76.00 84.401992 110.00 110.001993 80.00 64.001994 116.00 32.001995 102.00 83.00

JULUMITO ALERTAS

(mm)7

JAPIO(mm)

8

AÑO

1979 78.00 4.3571980 71.00 4.2631981 89.00 4.4891982 66.00 4.1901983 115.00 4.7451984 83.00 4.4191985 78.00 4.3571986 76.00 4.3311987 70.00 4.2481988 138.00 4.9271989 69.00 4.2341990 80.00 4.3821991 76.00 4.3311992 110.00 4.7001993 80.00 4.3821994 116.00 4.7541995 102.00 4.625

Media 88.059 4.455σ 20.605 0.216

Coef Asimetría 1.2 0.9N 17 17

0.57721.28260.51811.0411

(Años) F(x) Y

2 0.50 0.50 0.3675 0.20 0.80 1.500

10 0.10 0.90 2.25020 0.05 0.95 2.97050 0.02 0.98 3.902

100 0.01 0.99 4.600

ESTACIÓN JULUMITO ALERTAS

P7 (mm)

LnP7 (mm)

Yn=∞

Sn=∞

Yn=17

Sn=17

TR

P>

1 / P> 1/TR P< = 1 - P> 0-Ln{-Ln[F(x)]}

Gumbel Corregido n=17 Log - Normal Log - Pearson IIIZ

Tabla Normal e^(Ln(X?+Z*Lnσ)-0.146 85.059 0.0000 86.044 -0.14807 83.33370.943 107.491 0.8416 103.210 0.76902 101.60371.664 122.343 1.2816 113.508 1.33889 114.92232.355 136.589 1.6449 122.781 1.85856 128.58393.250 155.030 2.0537 134.124 2.49811 147.64633.921 168.848 2.3263 142.264 2.95735 163.0543

lcor n=17 Qcor n=17 QLog-Normal U-0.9 QLog-Pearson III

(Y-Yn=17)/Sn=17 Qmed+lcor n=17*σ Tabla con g=0.9 e^(Ln(X?+g*Lnσ)

10 30 60 90 120Min Min Min Min Min

2 0.2016 0.3896 0.4875 0.5246 0.56355 0.2099 0.4198 0.5284 0.5663 0.6089

10 0.2195 0.4476 0.5651 0.6044 0.650220 0.2272 0.4699 0.5946 0.6348 0.683350 0.2354 0.4938 0.6262 0.6676 0.7188

100 0.2407 0.509 0.6463 0.6884 0.7414

PERIODO DE RETORNO - TR

(Años) P10/Pmax (24h) P30/Pmax (24h) P60/Pmax (24h) P90/Pmax (24h) P120/Pmax (24h)

150 180Min Min

0.5959 0.61190.6415 0.65530.6836 0.69630.7173 0.72910.7536 0.76440.7766 0.7868

TABLA PRECIPITACIONES (mm) - METODO GUMBEL CORREGIDO10 30 60

Precipitación Precipitación Precipitaciónmm mm mm

2 17.148 33.139 41.466

P150/Pmax (24h) P160/Pmax (24h)


(Años)

5 22.562 45.125 56.79810 26.854 54.761 69.13620 31.033 64.183 81.21650 36.494 76.554 97.080

100 40.642 85.944 109.127

TABLA PRECIPITACIONES (mm) - METODO LOG - NORMAL10 30 60


2 17.346 33.523 41.9465 21.664 43.328 54.536

10 24.915 50.806 64.14320 27.896 57.695 73.00550 31.573 66.230 83.988

100 34.243 72.412 91.945

TABLA PRECIPITACIONES (mm) - METODO LOG - PEARSON III10 30 60


2 16.800 32.467 40.6255 21.327 42.653 53.687

10 25.225 51.439 64.94320 29.214 60.422 76.45650 34.756 72.908 92.456

100 39.247 82.995 105.382


(Años)


(Años)

TABLA PRECIPITACIONES (mm) - METODO GUMBEL CORREGIDO TABLA PRECIPITACIONES (mm) - METODO GUMBEL CORREGIDO90 120 150 180

Precipitación Precipitación Precipitación Precipitaciónmm mm mm mm

44.622 47.931 50.686 52.047 2


(Años)

60.872 65.451 68.955 70.439 573.944 79.547 83.634 85.187 1086.707 93.331 97.975 99.587 20

103.498 111.435 116.830 118.505 50116.235 125.184 131.128 132.850 100

TABLA PRECIPITACIONES (mm) - METODO LOG-NORMAL

TABLA PRECIPITACIONES (mm) - METODO LOG - NORMAL90 120 150 180

Precipitación Precipitación Precipitación Precipitación 2mm mm mm mm 5

45.139 48.486 51.274 52.650 1058.448 62.845 66.209 67.634 2068.604 73.803 77.594 79.036 5077.941 83.896 88.071 89.519 10089.541 96.408 101.075 102.52497.934 105.474 110.482 111.933 TABLA PRECIPITACIONES (mm) - METODO LOG-PEARSON III

TABLA PRECIPITACIONES (mm) - METODO LOG - PEARSON III90 120 150 180

Precipitación Precipitación Precipitación Precipitación 2mm mm mm mm 5

43.717 46.959 49.659 50.992 1057.538 61.866 65.179 66.581 2069.459 74.722 78.561 80.020 5081.625 87.861 92.233 93.751 10098.569 106.128 111.266 112.861

112.247 120.888 126.628 128.291


(Años)


(Años)

TABLA PRECIPITACIONES (mm) - METODO GUMBEL CORREGIDO10 30 60 90 120 150 180

Precipitación Precipitación Precipitación Precipitación Precipitación Precipitación Precipitaciónmm mm mm mm mm mm mm

14.141 27.327 34.194 36.796 39.525 41.798 42.920

18.970 37.939 47.754 51.179 55.029 57.975 59.22322.778 46.448 58.641 62.719 67.472 70.937 72.25526.496 54.800 69.342 74.030 79.686 83.652 85.02831.368 65.800 83.443 88.959 95.782 100.419 101.85835.074 74.170 94.176 100.311 108.034 113.163 114.649

TABLA PRECIPITACIONES (mm) - METODO LOG-NORMAL10 30 60 90 120 150 180


14.217 27.476 34.380 36.996 39.740 42.024 43.15318.771 37.542 47.254 50.644 54.453 57.369 58.60322.232 45.336 57.237 61.218 65.857 69.240 70.52625.488 52.716 66.705 71.215 76.656 80.470 81.79429.638 62.171 78.841 84.053 90.499 94.881 96.24132.728 69.210 87.878 93.603 100.809 105.596 106.982

TABLA PRECIPITACIONES (mm) - METODO LOG-PEARSON III10 30 60 90 120 150 180


13.888 26.839 33.584 36.139 38.819 41.051 42.15418.596 37.191 46.812 50.170 53.944 56.832 58.05522.487 45.854 57.892 61.918 66.610 70.032 71.33326.436 54.676 69.186 73.863 79.506 83.463 84.83631.868 66.850 84.775 90.379 97.311 102.022 103.48436.222 76.598 97.260 103.596 111.571 116.869 118.403

TABLA INTENSIDADES (mm/h) - METODO GUMBEL CORREGIDO10 30 60 90 120

Intensidad Intensidad Intensidad Intensidad Intensidadmm/h mm/h mm/h mm/h mm/h

2 84.844 54.655 34.194 24.531 19.762


(Años)

5 113.818 75.879 47.754 34.119 27.51510 136.666 92.895 58.641 41.813 33.73620 158.976 109.599 69.342 49.354 39.84350 188.206 131.600 83.443 59.306 47.891

100 210.443 148.339 94.176 66.874 54.017

TABLA INTENSIDADES (mm/h) - METODO LOG-NORMAL10 30 60 90 120


2 85.304 54.951 34.380 24.664 19.8705 112.627 75.085 47.254 33.762 27.227

10 133.395 90.672 57.237 40.812 32.92820 152.930 105.431 66.705 47.477 38.32850 177.826 124.342 78.841 56.035 45.250

100 196.370 138.419 87.878 62.402 50.405

TABLA INTENSIDADES (mm/h) - METODO LOG-PEARSON10 30 60 90 120


2 83.329 53.679 33.584 24.093 19.4105 111.573 74.382 46.812 33.447 26.972

10 134.920 91.709 57.892 41.279 33.30520 158.617 109.352 69.186 49.242 39.75350 191.210 133.701 84.775 60.253 48.655

100 217.334 153.196 97.260 69.064 55.786



2 122.018 61.828 40.263 31.329 26.2205 151.212 76.620 49.896 38.824 32.493

10 177.853 90.119 58.687 45.664 38.21820 209.187 105.997 69.027 53.709 44.95150 259.236 131.357 85.542 66.560 55.706

100 304.909 154.500 100.612 78.287 65.520




(Años)


(Años)


(Años)


(Años)

2 101.254 62.306 40.575 31.571 26.4235 126.765 76.620 50.797 39.525 33.080

10 150.252 90.119 60.209 46.849 39.20920 178.091 105.997 71.365 55.529 46.47450 222.961 131.357 89.345 69.520 58.183

100 264.272 154.500 105.899 82.400 68.963

TABLA INTENSIDADES (mm/h) - METODO GUMBEL CORREGIDO150 180

Intensidad Intensidadmm/h mm/h16.719 14.307

23.190 19.74128.375 24.08533.461 28.34340.168 33.95345.265 38.216

TABLA INTENSIDADES (mm/h) - METODO LOG-NORMAL150 180

Intensidad Intensidadmm/h mm/h16.810 14.38422.947 19.53427.696 23.50932.188 27.26537.952 32.08042.238 35.661

TABLA INTENSIDADES (mm/h) - METODO LOG-PEARSON150 180





Intensidad Intensidadmm/h mm/h

23.015 20.55928.814 25.73934.152 30.50940.480 36.16150.679 45.27260.069 53.660

AÑOESTACIÓN JAPIO

1965 61.50 4.1191966 76.30 4.3351967 73.00 4.2901968 53.20 3.9741969 62.40 4.1341970 70.20 4.2511971 65.10 4.1761972 92.70 4.5291973 45.00 3.8071974 120.00 4.7871975 74.20 4.3071976 51.70 3.9451977 80.00 4.3821978 92.70 4.5291979 48.00 3.8711980 57.00 4.0431981 58.00 4.0601982 71.00 4.2631983 63.80 4.1561984 79.00 4.3691985 112.00 4.7181986 60.50 4.1031987 83.60 4.4261988 70.50 4.2561989 95.20 4.5561990 78.80 4.3671991 84.40 4.4361992 110.00 4.7001993 64.00 4.1591994 32.00 3.4661995 83.00 4.419

Media 73.187 4.256σ 19.920 0.282

Coef Asimetría 0.4 -0.5N 31 31

0.53711.1159

(Años) F(x) Y

2 0.50 0.50 0.367

P8 (mm)

LnP8 (mm)

Yn=31

Sn=31

TR

P>

1 / P> 1/TR P< = 1 - P> 0-Ln{-Ln[F(x)]}

5 0.20 0.80 1.50010 0.10 0.90 2.25020 0.05 0.95 2.97050 0.02 0.98 3.902

100 0.01 0.99 4.600

Gumbel Corregido n=31 Log - Normal Log - Pearson IIIZ

Tabla Normal e^(Ln(X?+Z*Lnσ)-0.153 70.142 0.0000 70.523 -0.083302 68.8841

lcor n=31 Qcor n=31 QLog-Normal U-0.5 QLog-Pearson III

(Y-Yn=31)/Sn=31 Qmed+lcor n=31*σ Tabla con g=0.5 e^(Ln(X?+g*Lnσ)

0.863 90.375 0.8416 89.429 0.80829 88.59231.535 103.770 1.2816 101.253 1.32309 102.44522.180 116.620 1.6449 112.185 1.77428 116.35663.015 133.252 2.0537 125.903 2.31084 135.37973.641 145.716 2.3263 135.972 2.68572 150.4874

CREACION DE CURVAS IDFS, APARTIR DE PRECIPITACIONES

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