Craig Morris Petite Planète www.petiteplanete.org Ukraine’s Energy Future Sep 13, 2012 “Energiewende” The German energy transition – what can other countries learn?
Craig Morris Petite Planète Ukraine’s Energy Future Sep 13, 2012 “Energiewende” The German energy transition – what can other countries.
Apr 01, 2015
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Craig MorrisPetite Planètewww.petiteplanete.org
Ukraine’s Energy Future
Sep 13, 2012
“Energiewende”
The German energy transition – what can other
countries learn?
Craig Morris, Petite Planète, www.petiteplanete.orgThe German energy transition, Kiev
Ukraine’s Energy Future
Sep 13, 2012
Renewables International: news in renewables in Germany and abroad every workday
www.renewablesinternational.net
Craig Morris, Petite Planète, www.petiteplanete.orgThe German energy transition, Kiev
Ukraine’s Energy Future
Sep 13, 2012
Website on German energy transition for Heinrich Böll Foundation end of October
Craig Morris, Petite Planète, www.petiteplanete.orgThe German energy transition, Kiev
Solar and PV already close to baseload demand; will cut into baseload within decade when targets are met.
Combined installed wind+PV will exceed peak demand by 25%
Peak power demand winter/summer/baseload
Installed onshore wind, 2011/target/offshore
Installed PV, 2011/target0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Baseload40 GW
Wind 29 GW
PV 25 GW
Summer peak70 GW
Target onshore46 GW
PV target 52 GW
Nov peak 80 GW
Target offshore10 GW
Craig Morris, Petite Planète, www.petiteplanete.orgThe German energy transition, Kiev
Not April Fools: Renewables already increasingly cut into baseload, such as on Sunday, April 1.
Craig Morris, Petite Planète, www.petiteplanete.orgThe German energy transition, Kiev
What happened at 4 pm on April 1?
Left: solar power production
Right: wind power
Visit EEX Transparency website
Craig Morris, Petite Planète, www.petiteplanete.orgThe German energy transition, Kiev
The result was negative prices at 4 pm.
Good: firms benefit from low wholesale prices thanks to RE
Bad: Investments in dispatchable conventional power less attractive
Craig Morris, Petite Planète, www.petiteplanete.orgThe German energy transition, Kiev
RE shaves peaks, lowering wholesale prices (merit-order effect).
Wind (light green) and solar (yellow) complement each other well.
Source: Bruno Burger, Fraunhofer ISE
Craig Morris, Petite Planète, www.petiteplanete.orgThe German energy transition, Kiev
RE shaves peaks, lowering wholesale prices (merit-order effect).
Wind (blue) and solar (orange) complement each other well.
Source: Bernard Chabot, Renewables International
Craig Morris, Petite Planète, www.petiteplanete.orgThe German energy transition, Kiev
Conclusions:
If Ukraine has ~22 GW summer peak demand, 11 GW of wind and 11 of solar in Ukraine should have similar effect
Germany remains power exporter; grid stability best in EU (world?); CO2 emissions dropped again in 2011 despite nuclear phase-out
In mid-2012, Germany had 30 GW of wind and 29 of PV, each roughly equal to 50% of average demand (60-70 GW)
At 50%, RE offsets peak and medium load, lowers wholesale prices
Above that level, RE increasingly cuts into baseload Increasingly, RE power will have to be stored or lost PV currently makes up 5.3% of power supply, so 10%
is feasible, but more will increasingly require (seasonal) storage
Countries with lots of air-conditioning (USA) have greater summer than winter peaks, so larger share of PV is possible there
Wind now makes up around 8% in Germany, ~20% easily feasible (assuming grid integration)
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