BUILDING STRONG ® 1 US Army Corps of Engineers San Francisco District Craig Conner Flood Risk Management Program Manager San Francisco District 9 December 2013 US Army Corps of Engineers BUILDING STRONG ® San Francisco District Meeting the Rising Bay Tide in San Mateo County Sea Level Rise Planning and Corps Programs
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Craig Conner Flood Risk Management Program Manager San Francisco District 9 December 2013 US Army Corps of Engineers BUILDING STRONG ® San Francisco District.
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Craig ConnerFlood Risk ManagementProgram Manager San Francisco District
9 December 2013
US Army Corps of Engineers
BUILDING STRONG®
San Francisco District
Meeting the Rising Bay Tidein San Mateo CountySea Level Rise Planningand Corps Programs
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US Army Corps of EngineersSan Francisco District
How Much Does Sea Level Change Really Matter?
Corps of Engineers’ general approach:
► Become better informed using our science agency partners.
► Start changing our way of thinking at all project levels.
• existing projects and new projects
► Think in larger time and spatial scales.
► Consider cumulative system effects, connectivity, and extremes.
► Build collaborative relationships and prepare for adaptability.
► Screen large body of projects and address methodically
GOAL: Realistic acknowledgement of residual risk, and the potential for impacts on performance and costs
► Path to develop appropriate plans and approach to adaptation.
► Be aware and ready if large scale impacts are possible.
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US Army Corps of EngineersSan Francisco District
EC 1165-2-212 - Incorporating Sea Level Change Considerations in Civil Works Programs
Three estimates of future SLC must be calculated for all Civil Works Projects within the extent of estimated tidal influence:
► Low – Extrapolated ► Intermediate-Modified
NRC I Curve ► High - Modified
NRC III Curve
Current guidance does notassign a probability to each curve.
► Scenario-based approach required
1.5m
0.5m
0.2m
The USACE sea-level change curve calculator (3 scenarios) can be reached at: http://corpsclimate.us/ccaceslcurves.cfm
Comparison of Peer-Reviewed Research Estimates:GLOBAL Sea Level Rise by 2100
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US Army Corps of EngineersSan Francisco District
Alternatives Development & SelectionScenario
1Scenario
2Scenario
3
Alt A ☺ -2 -20
Alt B -1 ☺ -5
Alt C -10 -6 ☺
Good scenario-based planning should consider:► Adaptive Management► Facilitating Future
Modifications► Designing for the Future
Example of Least Regrets Approach
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US Army Corps of EngineersSan Francisco District
Possible Planning Approaches[One-Time {Precautionary} & Phased Investment {Managed Adaptive}]
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US Army Corps of EngineersSan Francisco District
Phased Investment AnalysisResilient Levee Prism targeting Curve H vs. Curves 1 or 3
Result: Assuming the smallest plan considered is an RLP targeting Curve H, if in 25 years you can’t raise the levee 2.2’ for less than $10M, then you should build to Curve 3 now.
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US Army Corps of EngineersSan Francisco District
How Can the Corps Help?
LARGE Projects (~$11M to ~$1B): General Investigation (GI)
Small Projects (~$2M to ~$10M): Continuing Authorities Program (CAP)
Technical Assistance (~$1K to ~$100K): Floodplain Management Services (FPMS) Planning Assistance to States (PAS) Interagency and International Services (IIS)
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US Army Corps of EngineersSan Francisco District
General Investigations (GI)
GI advantage: no funding limits on project and more flexibility in modifying project
GI disadvantage: has a longer approval process than a CAP {Requires Congressional Approval}