CQI Learning Lunch Understanding Variation Predicting Your System’s Performance July 10, 2013 CQI Preview 9:00 AM to 10:00 AM – DialIn Capital Quality & Innovation Audio Bridge - Conference Access 1-567-314-9082 Conference Passcode 734 254 9433 Learning Lunch 10:30 AM to 1:00 PM – In Person University Club of Michigan State 3435 Forest Road, Lansing, MI 48909 5173535111
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CQI Learning Lunch Understanding Variation
Predicting Your System’s Performance
July 10, 2013 CQI Preview -‐ 9:00 AM to 10:00 AM – Dial-‐In
Capital Quality & Innovation Audio Bridge - Conference Access 1-567-314-9082
Conference Passcode 734 254 9433
Learning Lunch -‐ 10:30 AM to 1:00 PM – In Person University Club of Michigan State
3435 Forest Road, Lansing, MI 48909 517-‐353-‐5111
• Jan 7 -‐ Learning Lunch @ 10:30 AM * – Idealized Design – StarQng Over With A Clean Sheet of Paper
• JANUARY 23 -‐ CQI BREAKFAST PROGRAM @7:30 AM – Jim Link – Ideas and Links
• Feb 12 -‐ Learning Lunch @ 10:30 AM * – Cultural Influences on Change
• Mar 11 -‐ Learning Lunch @ 10:30 AM * – Understanding a Theory of Knowledge – How We Know What We Know
• MARCH 28 -‐ CQI BREAKFAST PROGRAM @7:30 AM – BernadeJe Johnson -‐ Title To Be Announced
• Apr 9 -‐ Learning Lunch @ 10:30 AM * – New Neuroscience and Impacts on Thinking
• May 13 -‐ Learning Lunch @ 10:30 AM * – Systems -‐ How We Define Them, Is Everything
• MAY 29, CQI BREAKFAST PROGRAM @7:30 AM – SOAR TO NEW HEIGHTS WITH APPRECIATIVE INQUIRY -‐ John Victory -‐
• Jun 11 -‐ Learning Lunch @ 10:30 AM * – Customers and Understanding Their Voice
SPRING 2013 -‐ CQI ACADEMY • March 13 -‐ IntroducYon to Quality • March 27 -‐ Voice of the Customer • April 10 -‐ Systems Thinking • April 24 -‐ Understanding VariaYon • May 8 -‐ Psychology • May 22 -‐ Capstone Project PresentaYons
• CQI PREVIEWS ARE SCHEDULED @ 9:00 AM – Every Learning Lunch Morning These are audio conferences on the topic of each month’s Learning Lunch!
• JULY -‐ CQI BREAKFAST PROGRAM @7:30 AM – QUALITY IN GOVERNMENT -‐To Be Rescheduled to October
• Aug 14-‐ Learning Lunch @ 10:30 AM * – Analyzing Performance in Systems
• SEPTEMBER -‐ CQI BREAKFAST PROGRAM @7:30 AM – QUALITY IN EDUCATION
• Sep 9 -‐ Learning Lunch @ 10:30 AM * – New Learning Systems
• Oct 10 -‐ Learning Lunch @ 10:30 AM * – Asking Smart QuesQons
• NOVEMBER -‐ CQI BREAKFAST PROGRAM – Date TBD – THE NEW ECONOMICS of QUALITY in INDUSTRY
• Nov 12 -‐ Learning Lunch @ 10:30 AM * – Understanding Psychology in OrganizaQons
• Dec 9-‐ Learning Lunch @ 10:30 AM * – PredicQon -‐ Problems or SoluQons?
FALL 2013 -‐ CQI ACADEMY • September 11 -‐ IntroducYon to Quality • September 25 -‐ Voice of the Customer • October 9 -‐ Systems Thinking • October 23 -‐ Understanding VariaYon • November 6 -‐ Psychology • November 20 -‐ Capstone Project PresentaYons
CQI QUALITY, INNOVATION & LEADERSHIP FUNDAMENTALS -‐ AIM • Teach the fundamentals of quality systems, including quality
management, conFnuous improvement, innovaFon and leadership exemplified in the System of Profound Knowledge.
• Learn how these principles, pracFces and tools make a significant, posiFve difference in your professional lives and the organizaFons you work in.
• Provide a foundaFon for any person or organizaFon that desires to be a leader in quality and innovaFon.
COST • The cost is $2400 for the public and is $1800 for CQI members. MulFple
seat pricing is available if you send more than one person. The cost includes all required workshop materials with refreshments, conFnental breakfast, lunch and snacks each aWernoon throughout each of the six days. Also included in the price are pre-‐course assessments and assignments accessible via the web, plus a flash drive with all course content. Parking is free and lodging is available nearby, at an added cost with no markup.
• Individual, one-‐day sessions of the academy are available by special request and are $900 per person for the public and $600 for CQI members with a class of 24 parFcipants minimum.
APPROACH • We engage the learner in their own learning, coordinated with your
organizaFon’s leadership. We use accelerated learning/adult learning principles and pracFces in pre-‐course readings, in workshop dialogue, individual and team exercises, plus homework in interim weeks.
• We also make our instructors available to learners and your leadership through coached team calls and provide on call advice to parFcipants for their projects.
• Once we have a minimum of twelve (12) and up to forty-‐eight (48) parFcipants, we send out pre-‐course assessments of learning needs with the pre-‐course assignments.
• When your individual assessments are returned, we set a joint conference call with the learners and their leaders to develop a capstone project for each parFcipant.
• On the last day of the academy, the learners will make a presentaFon to your management, customers or both about what you will do with your learning.
• AWer the academy, we follow-‐up with the cohort members and their leaders or customers, to see how well they use what they have learned.
• At the conclusion of the Academy, the parFcipants and their leaders will also be asked to confirm their post-‐academy assessment and receive a monthly Fme window to call into a regularly scheduled conference bridge to stay connected to their class.
+ We have scheduled 6 dates in Spring 2013, 6 more in Fall 2013 and six in Spring 2014 + Contact Dennis or Adrian if you want more informaYon
Day 1 -‐ IntroducYon to Quality Day 2 -‐ Voice of the Customer Day 3 -‐ Systems Thinking Day 4 -‐ Understanding VariaYon Day 5 -‐ Psychology Day 6 -‐ Capstone Projects
6 Tuesdays, Wednesdays, or Thursdays, 2 weeks apart
-‐ 8:30 AM to 5:00 PM Located in the Lansing area, can be brought to your locaYon
• Our Thesis – the VariaYon in your system will help you predict performance
• IF we listen, the process talks to us – through variaYon mapped on control charts
• Today we discuss how knowledge about variaYon reveals great wisdom – Control Charts and Process Capability studies are a founda5on – AT&T – Western Electric work with Sta5s5cal Quality Control – Don Wheeler’s work – Deming’s System Model & PDSA
• We will discuss OUR OWN evidence of the voice of the process! – We build on the trail blazed by giants of knowledge – An opportunity to act with knowledge
• Managing, Leading and Transforming Our Workplaces
• FluctuaFng pacerns in data always exhibit variaFon • In any series of events or manufacturing or service or government or educaFon, even entertainments and sciences – With natural events too, such as acendance, health, populaFon, temperature, barometric pressure, precipitaFon, anything physical as well as anything mental such as the psychological reacFons of people
• Instead of always being the same from point to point in Fme, the numbers vary
• FluctuaFng pacerns in data are caused by a large number of minute variaFons gathered – Most differences are very small and fluctuate in a normal or natural
pajern
• Occasionally there are larger differences more important than all other differences combined – These larger causes make the pacern fluctuate in an unnatural or
abnormal manner
• Experience shows the definite detectable differences between natural and unnatural pacerns – Discoverable differences allow us to study these differences and
• Detectable differences between natural and unnatural pacerns allow us to study the signals and discover the causes – The data make it possible to study the differences by well-‐known,
staFsFcal laws
• DistribuFons of Data within the process studied fluctuate, yet they are grouped around a central value with scaJer on either side of it
• These fluctuaQons become more definite as the number of measurements or observaFons increase.
• IF the cause system is constant, the distribuFon approaches a staFsFcal limit -‐ a sort of “natural law” – and for the process this becomes a way to predict behavior in the system
• Everything varies • Individual things are unpredictable • Groups of things from a constant system of causes tend to be predictable • Examples from Shewhart’s work in Bell Labs and US Dept. of Agriculture Example 1
a. People live to different ages b. No one knows how long they will live c. Insurance companies can tell with great accuracy what percentage of people live to
age 60, 65, 70, etc. Example 2
a. You cannot write the lecer “A” twice the same way b. You have no way of knowing how your next “A” will differ from the last c. There is sFll something about your lecers that is the same as the others and
something about them that is different than mine Example 3
a. All pacerns fluctuate b. The individual points are unpredictable c. A group or series of points from a constant process will tend to follow
• Used in process, on the shop floor to increase yields, cut down waste and repair and “help people to do becer work” – One of the most sensiFve devices known for analyzing data and obtaining
informaFon
• To find the limits, we start with the process measurements and data over Fme to create an average – Depicted as a solid line above the numbers
• The central line or base line is determined over Fme – This defines a fluctuaFng pacern
• We add staFsFcal limits or “control limits” at 3 sigma – Depicted as doced lines added to the fluctuaFng pacern average – This results in a control chart – Which we use to track actual performance and predict future performance
• To interpret data correctly, put it in a control chart
• No one has to accept the evidence of control charts on faith • Look at the data
• It is always possible to invesFgate whether the chart is correct • When large numbers of people act in accordance with control charts, addressing
the un-‐natural variaFon, certain remarkable results occur • Costs are reduced • Quality and yields improve rapidly • There are major reducFons in waste, scrap, rework, and inspecFon • Engineers understand their process knowledge increasing • Workers stress and frustraFon is reduced • Experiments are faster and more successful • Difficult problems with specificaFons and requirements are solved easily and
economically – All of this is evidence of the reliability of control charts
• Bags of M&M in CQI Academy Exercise – Actuals compared to three values • A Central line of the averaged values or X-‐Bar • An Upper Control Limit or UCL • A Lower Control Limit or LCL – This is evidence of the power of control charts
• THERE IS NOTHING YOU SHOULD DO – THIS PROCESS IS IN CONTROL, With Only Natural VariaQon
• PDCA = plan-‐do-‐study-‐act • PDSA = plan-‐do-‐study-‐act • QC = quality control • TQC = total quality control
PragmaYsm Charles Pierce & William James
Modern Science Galileo
IntegraYon of PragmaYsm & Empiricism C. I. Lewis
Shewhart Cycle Walter
Shewhart
Deming Wheel W. Edwards Deming
Shewhart Cycle Deming
PDSA Deming
How We Think John Dewey
InducYve Learning
Francis Bacon
PDCA Japanese QCs
PDCA Kaoru Ishikawa
TQC
Ron Moen’s article* in the Quality Progress” magazine in November 2010 with Cliff Norman on the Deming Cycle has expanded our understanding of the PDSA learning and improvement cycle as well as the relationships to fundamentals of the tool and variants. It is also clear to see the connection into Deming’s description of the System of Profound Knowledge. *Circling Back – Clearing up myths about the Deming Cycle and seeing how it keeps evolving by Ronald D. Moen and Clifford L, Norman
1610
1620
1872
1933
1929
1939
1950
1951 1985
1986 1993
StaQsQcal Quality Control Handbook – 1956 – based on Bell Labs work in 1920’s, 30’s, 40’s
• Improved processes • Lower costs of service and manufacture • Less inspecFon • More informaFon about process variables • SoluFons to perplexing engineering
problems • Making order out of chaos
FOUR STEPS IN A PROCESS CAPABILITY STUDY 1. Collect data from the
“When a process displays unpredictable behavior, you can most easily improve the process and process outcomes by idenFfying the assignable causes of unpredictable variaFon and remove their effects from your process.”
– Donald J. Wheeler
• To remove these effects, you must remove the causes.
• To remove the causes, you must understand the system and interdependencies.
• You must talk to the people in the process
• Listen to what the process has been telling you through the variaFon.
Deming’s 14 Points Key to understanding the 14 Points is variation. The more variation - the more waste, Deming’s 14 points are paraphrased here: 1. Create constancy of purpose towards improvement.
• Replace short-term reaction with long-term planning. 2. Adopt the new philosophy.
• Management should walk the talk. 3. Cease dependence on inspection.
• Reduced variation eliminates need to inspect for defects. 4. Move towards a single supplier for any one item.
• Multiple suppliers mean variation between feedstocks. 5. Improve constantly and forever.
• Constantly strive to reduce variation. 6. Institute training on the job.
• Adequately trained staff will all work the same way, and reduce variation. 7. Institute leadership.
• Mere supervision is quota- and target-based 8. Drive out fear.
• Long term, it prevents workers from acting in the organization's best interests. 9. Break down barriers between departments.
• Use the 'internal customer', that each department serves other departments that use its output. 10. Eliminate slogans.
• It's not people who make most mistakes - it's the process they are working within. 11. Eliminate “management by objectives”.
• Deming saw production targets as encouraging the delivery of poor-quality goods. 12. Remove barriers to pride of workmanship.
• Many of the other problems outlined reduce worker satisfaction. 13. Institute education and self-improvement.
• Harassing the workforce without improving the processes they use is counter-productive. 14. The transformation is everyone's job.
• “You do not have to do this. Survival is not compulsory.”
AT EACH TABLE DISCUSS: • WHAT ARE OUR NEXT ACTION STEPS?
– What did we learn here? – What do we need to discuss next? – Who else needs to hear about this? – What will we do with our learning? – What adds value to you and your organizaYon? – What are the posiYve ajributes you can use? – What are the differences which influence your thinking?