CQ Perspectives Sep 2011

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Mission StatementCrop Quest is an employee-owned company dedicated to providing the highest quality agricultural services for each customer. The quest of our network of 

professionals is to practice integrity and innovation to ensure our services are economically and environmentally sound.

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Crop Quest Agronomic Services, Inc.

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Crop Quest Board of Directors  President: Ron O’Hanlon

Director: Jim Gleason

Director: Dwight Koops

Director: Cort Minor

Director: Chris McInteer

Director: Rob Benyshek

C r o p Q u e s t P e r

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OFFICIAL PUBLICATION OF CROP QUE ST AGRONOMIC SE

Volume 21 • Issue 5 • S

Veteran Fertilizer Consultants Warn …

Take a Wait-and-See AttitudeTowards Your 2012 Fertilizer Purchases

Just like it is critical to have all the resources offered byCrop Quest at your disposal to help plan your cropping season, itis equally important to have a service like NPK Fertilizer AdvisoryServices (NPKFAS) to keep track of your fertilizer pricing and

purchasing options.NPKFAS is a consulting company focused primarily on

advising fertilizer dealers and farmers on issues relatingto the fertilizer industry. They publish an electronicfertilizer newsletter (NPKFAS.com) and do a lot of phone

consulting and presentations to farmer, fertilizer buyer andfertilizer industry groups.

Dave Asbridge, who has analyzed U.S. and world agriculture forover 30 years and partner Glen Buckley, formerly CF Industries’Chief Economist for three decades, know fertilizer. They havespent a lot of time helping fertilizer buyers do a better job of know-

ing whether to make forward purchases and if so, when tocarry them out. They also work to develop better ways toforward purchase fertilizer products. In the fertilizer indus-

try, no one moves without rst consulting with NPKFAS.

Forward Outlook “We have really good corn prices and the price relationship between

corn and soybeans still favors corn,” Asbridge outlines. “We’re expecting anincrease in corn acreage in 2012 – probably not as big a jump as it was thisyear, but it will certainly increase by at least a million acres. We had a nearrecord consumption of fertilizer last fall, but it all fell apart this spring dueto the bad weather. However, if the weather cooperates, we’re anticipatinganother very good fall application season. This is a major reason why

fertilizer prices have remained so high. Fertilizer prices are expected toremain strong going into the fall.”

Buckley adds, “You have to look at each of the various nutrients to get anoverall feel for the market. As everyone knows, we had a disastrous springregarding pre-plant application of fertilizers. However, we saw one of the bestside-dress fertilizer seasons on record this year. This pretty well cleared outany inventory from the nitrogen side of the business – particularly productslike urea and UAN.”

Buckley says all this assures that we’re heading into thvery little inventory and that almost everyone in the suppto restock. That means farmers are going to be looking ado expect prices to moderate later this fall,” suggests Buanticipate prices that will be $100 to $200 above what fa

 AmmoniaThe fertilizer experts predict that ammonia is going to

scenario, however, can change based on the soybean harmost of the soybean ground is going into corn next year really late this year, we’re going to have a short window tion. If we have good weather, we’ll have strong demandprices will remain high,” assures Asbridge. “If we wind application season and ammonia doesn’t get out this falllower pricing in the spring. But going into this fall, ammremain high.”

UreaThe experts outline that world demand really dictates

this year, that demand is at record levels. “Current invenlow and that means a lot of imported urea needs to be brofactor in the weakness of the U.S. dollar vs. other currenhigher bid to get our needed inventory and the farmer withat difference in price,” Buckley notes. “The urea markanticipate that prices may be backing off as we near the fto be at least $150 above what farmers paid last year.”

PhosphateAsbridge adds that the phosphate market has some c

spring, but lower production and strong U.S. exports to IAmerica have tightened supplies. “There is no reason foin the near-term, but supplies should improve and pricesin the fall,” he notes. “Overall, farmers can expect to payton more for phosphates this fall than last fall.” Contin

This summer has been one for the record books.Across a good portion of the High Plains, we have experienced droughtand heat issues that rival those tough years in the 1930s, 1950s, and morerecently, 1980. In my career as an agronomist, I have never witnessed irri-gated corn – watered everyday – wither into a eld of dried up plants in just

a matter of days! It was hard to watch. This situation was not necessarily

due to drought conditions as it was excessive, relentless and brutal heat.At the same time though, it became quite obvious that irrigation well size

did make a difference. The corn under larger capacity wells was able towithstand the heat stress better than under smaller wells – up to a point.

Soil type was another factor. Sandy soils with low water holding capacity – combined with smaller well capacity really suffered. Too many elds hadto be salvaged as ensilage or baled feed.

In Kansas, a drought disaster was declared in many counties clear backin April. In June and July, more counties were added to that declaration.This declaration gave the Division of Water Resources (DWR) the author-ity to offer additional pumping authority to producers for the remainder of this growing season. Essentially, producers could use 2012 water in 2011.Participants would agree to deduct the 2011 overage from what they arepermitted to pump in 2012. The DWR recognized that if a step like this wasnot taken, all the water applied during the season would be a huge waste of a resource and investment.

So, those elds that had enough water capacity to raise a good crop, andused an inordinate amount of water early in the season just to sustain thecrop, came with a price. Many of these wells surpassed the allotment beforethe crop was nished.

Water allotments have become a focal point for most decisions relatedto crop production. They determine which crop is grown, rotations, hybridmaturities, populations, pesticide choices, nozzle packages, equipmentupgrades, etc. So, it is understandable that producers are very reluctant to go

over their allotment in any year – even under the most dire circumstances.The consequence can have long-lasting effects. For those wells that wentover the allotment this year, a common practice will be to plant wheatbehind corn. The wheat crop can be established this fall with 2012 water,and it is reasonable to assume that the producer can stay within the 2012allotment to nish out the wheat crop. Then a decision can be made later

whether to go back to a normal rotation in 2013.On the positive side, crop rotation is benecial, and allows us to break

weed, disease and insect cycles in a eld. But, diverting from a normal cropmix can affect an operation’s revenue as well. Other crop choices will needto be considered. Some producers will opt for lower water use crops such assorghum, sunowers and cotton.

If corn is the planned crop in 2012 without a full allotment, decisionsneed to be made concerning hybrid selection, populations, planting date,end use, etc. None of those decisions will be easy. What we do expect is thatmost likely any changes from normal rotations due to excessive water use in2011 will affect the bottom line in a negative way in 2012.

The DWR requires producers to le permits for this 2011 overage. Con -tact your local Ground Water Management District for details on ling. Thedeadline is prior to year end. If you le, and then do not go over your 2011allotment, there is no harm, no foul. In this case, you will still have your en-tire 2012 allotment. I encourage anyone in these situations to le the properpaperwork before the end of the year so you are not subject to any penaltiesunder the current regulations.

We can only hope that the drought pattern in which a good portion of theHigh Plains and Southern Plains have been experiencing will not carry into

2012. We in agriculture consider ourselves pretty resilient; but I think thisyear has tested our metal to the limits. Please do not hesitate to call on youragronomist to help you make those tough decisions about cropping plans fornext year.

A REMEDY 

FOR TODAY'S NEEDED MOISTUREUlysses, Kan.

By: Dwight KoopsRegional Vice President

Dave Asbridge

Glen Buckley

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C r o p Q u e s t P e r s p e c t i v e s w w w . c r o p q u e s t . c o m C r o p Q u e s t P e r2

E

5Matt Tuxhorn- GenEducation: B.A. in AccouUniversityHometown: Dodge City, KBased From: Dodge City

Main Focus: KeepingEvolving AccountingInterests & Activiti

Fishing, Shooting, HAnxiously Awaitingin December 2011.

Skeete Armstrong John Gibson

Tracy Herrmann Matt TuxhornElliott Rounds

By early September, most of us will knowwhat the potential losses are due to the extreme

heat and drought conditions throughout much of theHigh Plains and Southern Plains areas. Mother

Nature has shown us once again how criticalwater is to our survival. We sometimes getcomplacent during good times and forget

about conserving water using every meanspossible. It takes years like this year toawaken us once again.

In a recent online Kansas State Exten-sion Agronomy eUpdate newsletter, the writer

summarized a research article on the “Effectof Stubble Height in a No-Till Wheat-Corn/Grain

Sorghum-Fallow Rotation,” by Lucas Haag and AlanSchlegel. It may have been timelier if this article had been written when wheatharvesters could have adjusted their cutting height, but the importance of conserving moisture is essential to recognize.

For this study, the crops were planted into wheat stubble of three heightsfrom tallest to shortest: stripped, optimal and short. It was discovered thatthere were many hidden effects of wheat stubble height on the followingrotations of dryland corn or grain sorghum crop. The majority of theseeffects had a direct inuence on soil moisture, such as, evaporationsuppression, capture of snowfall during winter, protection from soilerosion and suppression of weed growth. Wind velocity, surface radiationinterception, and surface temperature all uctuate in various heights of stubble. These components are signicant when it comes to conservingsoil moisture.

Many advantages may be found with the effect of stubble height. Long term

benets of soil moisture conservation and water efciency can be obtained innding the ideal height of stubble. With more surface residue the soil qual -ity increases; one reason being the stubble enhances the efciency of holdingwater. With continuous no-till, an increase in size and number of pores in thesoil prole can be found, allowing for more moisture to be absorbed. Thiswill also lead to less water run-off or pooling that can result in evaporation.These advantages, what seemed to be minor in prior years, have become moresignicant than ever in today’s climate and have been shown in this study.

As a conclusion to this study, the researchers found thheight improved subsequent corn grain yield and WUE The increased grain yields were a result of the increase inear population. See the chart below:

The effect of stubble height on grain sorghum yields wand will require further study, which was in direct contrasSee chart:

For more information, and further details of the stuResearch-Extension Center Field Day 2011, K-State p1052: http://www.ksre.ksu.edu/library/crpsl2/srp1052

I could go on with more information about conservfor the subsequent crop, but hopefully this past summus make the necessary changes in our operations to suconditions of the High Plains. Visit with your Crop Qabout soil moisture conservation ideas.

StubbleHeight

GrainYield(bu/a)

PlantPopulation

EarPopulation

Residue(lb/acre)

Residue:YieldRatio

KernWeig(oz/1,00

St ri pp ed 9 2. 0a 1 5, 50 0 1 5, 70 0 6 17 5 1 .2 2 1 0. 4

Hig h 8 9. 9a 15 ,4 00 1 5, 40 0 6 42 1 1 .3 5 1 0. 5

L ow 80 .3 b 15 ,5 00 1 5, 10 0 5 55 0 1. 30 1 0. 3

Corn Grain Yield And Yield Components As AStubble Height: Tribune, 2007-2010

StubbleHeight

GrainYield(bu/a)

PlantPopulation

HeadPopulation

Residue(lb/acre)

Residue:YieldRatio

KernWeig(oz/1,00

S tr ip ped 1 01 .9 1 8, 30 0 50 ,0 00 5 968 1 .0 8 0 .8

Hi gh 1 07 .4 1 8, 90 0 51 ,9 00 6 389 1 .0 8 0 .9 2

L ow 1 02 .9 1 9, 20 0 50 ,2 00 5 978 1 .0 9 0 .9

Grain Sorghum Grain Yield And Yield ComponentStubble Height: Tribune, 2007-2010

WATER

Member,NationalAllianceofIndependent CropConsultants,CPCC-I

Certied

By: Ron O’HanlonPresident

A CRITICAL RESOURCE

FIVE NEW

PERSPECTIVES

Skeete Armstrong- Agronomist Education: B.S. in Agribusiness, West TexasA&M University

Hometown: Grady, NMBased From: Northwest KS

Main Focus: Corn, Milo, Wheat, & Sunowers

Interests & Activities: Fishing, Reading &Spending Time With Family and Friends.

John Gibson- Precision AgEducation: B.S. in Ag Systems MAg Systems Management, Texas AHometown: Tulia, TXBased From: Dodge City, KS

Main Focus: Learning new wto help in ag management dInterests & Activities: WaFootball, Hunting & TraininDogs.

Tracy Herrmann- Recruiting/  Communication CoordinatorEducation: B.S. in Human ResourceManagement, Kansas State UniversityHometown: Ford, KSBased From: Dodge City, KS

Main Focus: Getting Acquainted With Staff & Bringing New Ideas to Further DevelopRecruiting & On-Boarding ProceduresInterests & Activities: Fishing, Cooking,Traveling, Learning Spanish, Scrapbooking.

Elliott Rounds- AgronomistEducation: B.S. in Plant and Soil Science,Oklahoma State University & M.S. in PlantPhysiology, Texas A&M University

Hometown: Banner, OKBased From: Ulysses, KSMain Focus: Corn, Milo, Hay & Sunowers

Interests & Activities: Woodworking,Gardening, Deer Hunting & Target

Shooting.

Even though Mother Nature has not been kind to the High Plains row cropproducer this year, don’t let down your guard at harvest. An essential keyto growing a successful crop is paying attention during harvest, in order tosee where you can avoid production issues for next year. That advice fromVaughn Cook, Production Manager of the 7,800-acre Ute Mountain UteTribe Farm & Ranch Enterprise in Towaoc, CO, is backed by years of experience and a constant commitment to improve.

Cook, who oversees 109 center pivot systems gravity-charged from canalsbringing water from the McPhee Reservoir 41 miles away, says while youcan’t do anything about this year's production at harvest, you can obtain somedata and management information that can make you a better cropnext season.

“The number one item that stands out – especially in irrigated corn – isblocked or malfunctioning irrigation nozzles. Another clear picture can beseen with fertilizer issues, hybrid variations, sprayer malfunctions, weedcontrol, insect management and drainage,” says Cook. “If you’ve been acrossthe elds for many years, these anomalies really stand out. The key, though, isto make note of them. Don’t just drive over them.”

Bruce Seiler, Seiler Farms in Sedgwick, KS, oversees 3,000 acres of irri-gated and dryland corn, soybeans and wheat and another 500 acres of alfalfa.He says, “After years of farming a particular piece of ground, you get a feelfor the variations of the soil for that eld. When harvesting, we are able tocompare our yield map data with our expectations and make plans for the fol-lowing crop year. And with the extreme dry conditions we faced in 2011, weexpect the variations of the various soil types to be more obvious at harvesttime. We will be especially vigilant in comparing these items at harvest thisyear so we can add that to our data package for next year's planting season.”

Cook likes to take pictures with his cell phone or jot the zone coordinatesdown in a notebook to compare with his yield monitor data later. “This is

an excellent intelligence gathering opportunity. Don’t just ride the combine,make it a learning and data gathering opportunity that you can take advantageof to improve next years crop.”

Cook likes to invite his irrigation managers to ride the combine with himin specic problem elds. “This is an opportunity for the irrigation peopleto see where they have issues,” says Cook. “They only see the elds fromeye-level whereas in the combine they can see huge areas. Likewise, I invitethem to ride with me when I’m in an especially nice eld so they can seehow well their work has paid off.”

These efforts at harvest have prompted Cook to have irrigation managersyear ‘round, who work with nozzles and pressure on the pivots. “This movehas really paid off for the production across the entire operation,” adds Cook.

Vigilance during the irrigation season has also paid off for Seiler. “Wenoticed at harvest several seasons back that inconsistency with yields weredirectly related to nozzle spacing being too wide and causing an inconsis-tent spray pattern,” Seiler notes. “We have lowered the height of our spraynozzles to 7-feet to minimize evaporation. We now constantly monitor thenozzles for rotation and other issues during the irrigating season.”

Seiler adds that from the combine he can see rsthand how their plans areworking and how far new technology tools are improving overall produc-tion. “Using yield monitors and grid mapping has helped us tremendously toimprove overall soil fertility and make elds more uniform.

"We now plant 30-inch corn one year, and the next year we plant 7.5-inchtwin-row soybeans that straddle last year's corn rows,” he explains. “Theroots of the new plants follow the old root system from the previous crop

allowing them to develop a faster and larger root system. We also use GPSfor strip tilling, planting, and spraying. We are correcting soil fertility issuesby creating a prescription for our P and K for each eld using grid-mappingdata. This is our sixth year for gathering information with our yield maps.”

Another benet Seiler points to from his position on the combine is see -ing how their soil management is working out. “During a wet spring, the lowareas of the eld may have a poorer population. We have equipped ourscraper with a laser to improve these drainage issues. With strip-till plantingand min-till approach, we have minimizedour exposure to erosion. We try to controlcompaction by maintaining the same trafclanes using our GPS. In a wet year, when wemight have compaction from the grain cart,we inter-row rip after harvest.”

Both Seiler and Cook utilize zone map-ping to lay these over their yield maps togive them a real-time look. “Yield monitordata is used hand-in-hand with our CropQuest Zone Mapping software to see howour management efforts are paying off,” saysCook. “Crop Quest’s John Hecht sits down

with all the data and we can see clearlywhere our management improvements arepaying off or if we need to adjust them. It’sgood to have someone like John here to helpus interpret and analyze all the data.”

In conclusion Cook adds, “The combineprovides a unique view of the farm. Take anote pad or camera-ready cell phone withyou. Make plenty of notes and/or take lotsof photos of areas you know are issues. Andnally, and my best advice – stay awake!”

Combines Provide UniqueView of the Operation

PotashBuckley says that potash retail prices –which have been gradually trending

upward – appear to have hit a plateau. “We expect prices to hold at close tocurrent levels through the end of the calendar year. Although potash produc-ers continue to point out that inventory is down signicantly from the lasttwo years, it is still close to the long-term average. We don’t see supply as aproblem.”

And what about the High Plains winter crops? “Regarding winter wheat,”adds Asbridge, “given the weather situation, there’s not going to be afall fertilizer season on pre-plant winter wheat. Everyone is probablygoing to wait for the spring because of the lack of moisture. If farmers get agood crop and the weather looks cooperative, I think you’ll see a lot of top-dressing in the spring.”

Although NPK Fertilizer Advisory Service’s recommendation issimple, it has been based on market facts and their 30+ years of experience:

1. If your cropping system/management allows, don’t apply

fall fertilizers. Wait for the spring when prices will probably

stabilize at a lower cost for most fertilizers.

2. If you are going to apply this fall, hold off as long as possible

before locking in prices. Prices right now are close to, if not

at their highest point of the year.

Veteran Fertilzer Consultants ... Continued from Page 1