CPGS is an independent, non-partisan and not-for-profit think tank …cpakgulf.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/Pak-China-Report.pdf · 2020. 6. 30. · Dr Zafar Nawaz Jaspal Dr Adil

CPGS is an independent, non-partisan and not-for-profit think tank with a vision to

innovate future prospects for peace and security through intellectual discourse, and

contribute in sustainable social, political and economic development.

CPGS is a registered non-profit entity under the Societies Registration Act XXI of

1860, Pakistan.

Copyright © Centre for Pakistan and Gulf Studies (CPGS)

All rights reserved

Printed in Pakistan

Published February 2014

Any part of this publication cannot be used or cited without a clear reference to this

publication and CPGS

Office 101, Silver Oaks, F-10, Islamabad, Pakistan

PO Box: 1486 Islamabad T: (0092-51) 2809814 F: (0092-51) 2809815

E: [email protected] W: www.cpakgulf.org

mailto:[email protected]

Foreign Policy Roundtable Series

Pakistan – China Relations: Prospects &

Challenges

Roundtable Report IV

Introduction

The Centre for Pakistan and Gulf Studies (CPGS) is a non-partisan think tank established with a

vision to Innovate future prospects for peace and security in the region and beyond through

intellectual discourse and contribute in sustainable social, political and economic development.

To this end, CPGS has organized this roundtable discussion under the initiative the Centre has

embarked upon, i.e. ‘CPGS Foreign Policy Roundtable Series’ , with an aim to review the foreign

policy of Pakistan towards its partner states and the major powers of the World. ‘Pakistan-

China Relations – Prospects & Challenges’ is the fourth roundtable of the series; the first was on

‘Pakistan-U.S. Relations: Convergences and Divergences’ held in November last year, the

second was on ‘Pakistan-Russia Relations: Prospects and Challenges’, held in December 2013,

and the third was on ‘Pakistan-Afghanistan Relations – U.S. Drawdown and its Implications

for Pakistan’, held in January 2014.

Foreign Policy Roundtable Series – Report

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Background

Close Sino-Pakistani relations are not a novel phenomenon. While Pakistan and China’s

friendship initially evolved in the context of a geo-strategic framework, in the post-cold war era

it has become increasingly multi-dimensional. Chinese economy has also taken massive strides

within the globalized world. Chinese foreign policy reflects the importance of economic

modernization on China’s developmental agenda. It is a matter of some concern therefore that

despite Pakistan and China’s robust relationship in the strategic sector, their economic

relationship has not prospered proportionately. China-India trade, on the other hand, is now

larger than both trade between China and Pakistan and trade between India and the United

States. During the late Cold War period, China may have had slightly different strategic

alignments, but today, as a major global power, Beijing profits from regional stability and

normal working relations with New Delhi, which not only constitutes the bigger market but also

has vast potential within the global economy.

The recent handing over of the strategically-located Gwadar port to China by Pakistan is,

therefore, an important development as it will place Gwadar on the matrix of intense geo-

strategic competition. The port has the potential to act as a catalyst for projects such as the

trans-shipment of bulk cargo, oil storage, refinery, petrochemicals, export processing and

industrial zones, export of minerals and ship repair industry. When fully functional, it has the

potential to benefit many neighbouring and landlocked counties in the region in one way or the

other.

Changing regional and global dynamics however, render analyses of Pakistan’s future as a bit of

a ‘wildcard’. In the worst-case scenario, increased internal violence and instability has the

potential to even daunt Pakistan’s strongest ally. Economic relations between China and

Pakistan are indeed growing, but must be considered, therefore, in a wider regional and global

context. How then should the future of Pakistan-China relations be mapped out in the context

of the evolving international scenarios?


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Participants

The discussion was attended by renowned scholars, practitioners and members of the CPGS

Team. The complete list of attendees is as follows:

Chair Senator Mushahid Hussain

Moderator Prof. Dr Tahir Amin

Participants Ambassador (R) Akram Zaki

Prof Zhou Rong

Dr Zafar Nawaz Jaspal

Dr Adil Sultan

Ambassador (R) Arif Kamal

Dr M Khan

Mr Fazalur Rehman

Brig (R) Said Nazir

Mr Nasir Hafeez

Maj (R) Farrukh James

Mr Majid Mehmood

Mr Saqib Mehmood

Ms Sara Batool

Ms Adeela Bahar Khan

Mr Ikram Ullah Khan

Mr M. Suleman Shahid

Ms Sundus Ahmad

Mr M. Rizwan

*Various Research Scholars, HEC Scholars, M.Phil and PhD Students also attended the event.


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Key Questions

1. What is the nature of Sino –Pakistan relations in the post Cold War era?

2. What are the areas of convergence and divergence between the two countries?

3. How can Pakistan further improve its economic relations with China?

4. What is the vision for the future of Pakistan-China relations in the two countries?

Points Raised

Prelude

It is remarkable that the calendar of 1947 and the calendar of 2014 are exactly the same. 1947

was a new beginning, as is 2014 - it was the geographical map that changed then and it is the

geopolitical map that is shifting now. The 21st century is increasingly being identified as an

‘Asian’ century, with the balance of economic, political and cultural power shifting from the

West to the East.

This is perhaps best symbolized by the peaceful rise of China, Major Powers including the U.S.

and Russia are increasingly looking towards China once again, working either to ‘encircle’ the

country, or to build extensive cooperation. In the context of Pakistan-China relations, the winds

of change are also blowing. There is new leadership in both countries; in China, the 18th Party

Congress is now in power led by President Xi Jinping, and in Pakistan there is new leadership

under Mr. Nawaz Sharif. This may be reflective of a new beginning of sorts in Pakistan-China

relations.

China’s stance – Worldview, policies and direction

There is a vital need to understand how the Chinese system is being operated and the

direction it is moving in. Pakistan’s paradigm for understanding China and its modus

operandi may differ from the Chinese worldview, which at the moment, according to


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one participant, is somewhere between ‘liberal’ and ‘realist’ – differing according to the

sector in question.

Chinese domestic policy revolves around the principle of ‘social justice’ over the ‘neo-

liberal’ economic model. It is not only concerned with raising the country’s GDP, but also

the per capita income of every citizen, both rural and urban.

China now also has a more proactive foreign policy regarding the Middle East and

Muslim countries in the form of a "Middle East Peace Plan". It has already played an

important role via the United Nations in preventing a new war in the region. Similarly

regarding Iran, China has been very clear and resolute for a political settlement of

Iranian nuclear issue.

With regards to the rest of the region, Chinese policy has been one of avoiding conflict

between India and Pakistan; Chinese mediation in the 1990 spring crisis between the

two countries is a good example in this regard. Pakistan’s government reciprocally

supports China completely on all issues and policies of their national concern.

Kunming, the capital of Yunnan province of China in the east, and Kasghar in the South

West will be key to Chinese diplomacy and economic policy in the coming years. Kasghar

is the biggest city closest to the Pakistan-China border, and as such represents great

opportunities for future collaboration.

There are also several newly introduced reforms in China, like the recent anti-corruption

policy, which are creating a strong impact. Under these reforms now, will the Chinese

pull their hands back from national or public sector enterprises and allow market forces

to generate activities and manage external engagements? It is important to analyze and

understand these implications on the traditional patterns of Chinese companies

operating in Pakistan.


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Mutual ‘Cover’

In the current context, Pakistan and China both need each other – there is a strategic

convergence of interests. The speakers argued that China has provided 'air cover’ to

Pakistan in terms of the country’s interests against pressure from ‘outside’, including

cover for Pakistan’s nuclear program or even economic pressures. It also supports

Pakistan on forums like the G-20, NSG and the UNSC.

Similarly Pakistan provides parallel ‘cover’ to Chinese interests in the region; the

Pakistani government provides unequivocal and complete support to the Chinese

government of its four core areas of interest. The first of these is China’s territorial

integrity and sovereignty – Taiwan, Tibet, Xinjiang; secondly, the paramount role of

Communist Part of China as a leading political force; thirdly, the issue of the peaceful

rise of China as a major global power and finally, strategically, in terms of the emerging

issues of the South China Sea. Pakistan is also an important window for China into the

Muslim World, which is highly important as out of the 56 nationalities in China, 10 are

Muslim.

Areas of Mutual Interest

There are 22 major projects that China has initiated in Pakistan such as heavy

mechanical complex, heavy electrical complex, tank rebuilding factory, aircraft

rebuilding factory, machine tools, Gwadar port, Karakorum Highway and nuclear power

plants. In addition, currently there are more than 120 smaller Chinese projects and

about 12,000 to 15,000 Chinese engineers and technicians are working in Pakistan on

these projects and more are arriving by the day. In order to effectively channel this

cooperation however, it is extremely important to seriously synchronise these efforts

and develop proper industrial zones.

Secondly, the region is increasingly coming together in a ‘new regionalism’ driven by

economy and energy. In May 2013, President Xi Jinping declared the importance of this

new regionalism and the Central Asian Economic Past at Astana, Kazakhstan. There is


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already a pipeline from Myanmar to China and from Kazakhstan to China; new pipelines,

roads and infrastructure are also being developed with Turkmenistan, Afghanistan,

Pakistan and India (TAPI), and there is of course the pending Iran-Pakistan pipeline as

well. The economic revival of Pakistan, the resolution of its energy crisis and its security

and stability are therefore directly linked with China

Gwadar - The distance from Gwadar to Shanghai is 3000 miles, while the distance to

Shanghai from the Melaka strait is 9000 miles. This important port can be utilized as an

energy corridor and for broadening bilateral interaction.

Xinjiang - Xinjiang is the link between Pakistan and China, and Pakistan is the link

between China and the Muslim world.

Challenges

Speakers highlighted various challenges in the relationship between the two countries,

including:

Systemic problems or social ideas which are developing in China are vastly

misunderstood in Pakistan, where China is regarded as an essentially communist

country, at some level of transition. In the West and perhaps even in China itself

however, the system is perceived as a reformed version of capitalism – a mixture of

communist and capitalist ideas. Understanding this is imperative for moving bilateral

relations forward.

Strategic relations are in order but trade relations lag far behind, and are not

proportionate to other sectors of the relationship.

Lack of trust, particularly with regards to Chinese products in Pakistan, is another issue

in this regard, as the quality of Chinese goods is considered questionable. This is also an

obstacle to improving trade relations.

Implementation mechanisms are an additional challenge. While to date there are

almost 358 Joint Agreements, MoUs, Joint Declarations and arrangements covering


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almost every sector of civil society, lack of political will and implementation has failed to

fully materialize these endeavours.

The security situation in Pakistan adds to challenges in both trade relations and

implementation issues. Particularly in the context of the Pakistan-China Economic

Corridor, Gilgit-Baltistan and Baluchistan are the two vitally important areas, with

unfortunately the worst security issues.

Basic structural issues between both countries must be addressed, especially in the

context of agreed national priorities. Lack of coordination between various departments

is resulting in confusion and preventing effective and timely implementation.

Limited people-to-people interaction, limited Chinese art and literature are keeping the

relationship slightly one-dimensional.

One speaker questioned whether the economic prism was in fact appropriate for

analyzing Pakistan’s relationship with China. He argued that the preference for the

economic perspective stems from the fact that we want the economic benefit from the

Chinese market, but that this perspective ignores the Chinese approach towards the

relationship. If international relations continue to be guided by real politick and not

economics, then perhaps the strategic relationship should be given greater weight.

In this context, another speaker debated whether Pakistan’s approach towards China

should be slightly more ‘clinical’ in that Pakistan’s national interests must come first,

and be projected as such. This is meant in no way to be dismissive of the strength of

Pakistan-China relations.

External Pressures

With the rise of China, the focus is shifting from west to east, even the U.S. has adopted

new policy of ‘pivot Asia’ and ‘rebalancing’. This means economic and political focus has

shifted to Asia-Pacific, and militarily 60 percent of American naval power is now focusing

on this region, and India is a vital ally in this regard.


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There is also talk of the revival of the Cold War mindsets in the form of the containment

of China. The last time there was such a talk was in 1969, when Brezhnev presented his

‘Asian Collective Security Plan’. Now, it seems some lobbies in America are trying to

revive that mindset; whether they have political capacity or will to do it is of secondary

importance.

There are also international pressures on China, the fault lines for which are

concentrated in the neighbourhood. The Dalai Lama is in India employing the Tibetan

card, and others who are playing the Islamic Xinjiang card against China given the

situation there.

Conclusion

Pakistan and China share what is perhaps a ‘unique’ relationship. There is undoubtedly a very

strong bilateral relationship and many areas of mutual interest between the two countries, but

given the evolving international dynamics and China’s rise as a major global power, it is

important to reassess and review the strengths and challenges of this relationship in order to

move forward in a positive manner. Pakistan - China interactions have historically been limited

to mostly inter-governmental contact, with limited people-to-people interactions, which has

been identified as one of the core weaknesses in the durability of the two countries’ relations.

A sustained robust relationship requires a profound mutual understanding of culture, language,

and traditions which can only take place through regular people-to-people contact via student

exchanges, increased tourism, think tank collaboration, interactions between the media, and

joint ventures in creative arts like cinema and music, etc., and therefore is one of the key

aspects that must be addressed. Additional recommendations highlighted by the panel are as

follows:


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Recommendations

1. Security issues: One speaker proposed the formation of a special "Industrial Security

Force", as this was not technically the job of the army, paramilitary forces or the

police, all of whom have their respective responsibilities. There should therefore be

a dedicated "Industrial Security Force”, drawn from the pool of highly trained,

recently retired soldiers from the Pakistan army, most of whom seek reemployment

in any case. Utilizing already trained human resources from the country to protect

Chinese projects and personnel may be an effective solution to the problem,

particularly for Gwadar and the Pakistan-China economic corridor.

2. Another suggestion was that the Chinese, who are looking to relocate some of their

intermediate industries, should shift them to Pakistan with buyback arrangements.

In that way trade relations between the two countries can be improved as Pakistan’s

exports will increase. The framework for this is already in place in the form of a Free-

Trade Agreement.

3. Another impediment to Pakistan-China relations is the extensive bureaucratic red

tape. There could instead be a system of a ‘one window operation’ - whether it is via

the Planning Commission or whether a ‘China Task Force’; otherwise the outcome is

a lack of coordination, increased hurdles and delays.

4. If Pakistan acts in accordance with Article 38 of the Constitution and carefully crafts

its policies in line with the principles drawn out in Articles 29 to 39 – which clearly

deal with social justice – then people-to-people contact between the two countries

will increase significantly.


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CPGS Vision

Innovate future prospects for peace and security in the region and beyond

through intellectual discourse and contribute in sustainable social,

political and economic development.

About the Centre

The Centre for Pakistan and Gulf Studies (CPGS) is a non-partisan platform established to

undertake studies in policy research, advocacy and consultancy to enhance understanding and

relations in diverse fields between Pakistan and the Gulf countries. We regularly conduct

seminars, workshops, roundtables and conferences with dignitaries, academics and experts

from every walk of life, in order to actively promote regional harmony, global peace, security

and stability by making substantive intellectual, academic and diplomatic contributions. The

Centre aims to harness the immense potential for increasing cooperation in the region to attain

peace, security and economic development and to asses emerging trends in regional policies

and devise strategies for possible future challenges.

Operational Framework & Objectives

Promote regional peace and harmony through integrated and comprehensive

understanding of issues between peoples, governments and other entities;

Strengthen strategic, political, economic and social cooperation among countries of

the region and beyond;

Present view point of Pakistan and the Gulf countries to the rest of the world

through academic engagements, discussion and dialogue among all stakeholders for

sustainable development;

Identify opportunities and areas of common interest for potential cooperation

between Pakistan and the countries of the Gulf region at all levels including both

public and private sector;


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Contribute towards development of ideological and social ideas to promote

tolerance and co-existence for building multicultural human society based on shared

ideas and common goals;

Conduct Research and compile reports for the governments and private entities to

explore alternative options for efficient management and resolution of regional and

international issues;

Organize workshops and events to develop strong working relationship between

academia and practitioners;

Collaborate with the other research institutions and Think Tanks for achieving the

core objectives.

Activities and Services

Organize periodic seminars, workshops, lectures and other events which would bring

together leaders, academics, practitioners and other stakeholders, to study and

discuss issues of importance for the overall good of the society;

Map out future policy options by analyzing existing trends and emerging scenarios;

Compile, edit and publish (print and electronic) relevant information, data,

commentaries and analysis regularly;

Offer training and academic services for Skill Development and Strategic analysis;

Provide dedicated Consultancy and help create conducive environment for

development of our society;

All such other activities which help in achieving core objectives of the Centre and its

programs, projects and initiatives;

Prepare annual report of all activities for interested parties and stakeholders.


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