CPB & Evidence Based Policy OECD 9-12-2016 Laura van Geest Centraal Planbureau CPB History • Established in 1945 • Jan Tinbergen first Director 09-12-2016 2
CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis
CPB &
Evidence Based Policy
OECD
9-12-2016
Laura van Geest
Centraal Planbureau
CPB History
• Established in 1945
• Jan Tinbergen first Director
09-12-20162
Centraal Planbureau
Profile
• Independent
• Bridge between academia andpolicy makers
• Economists
• Free in research agenda
• IFI and Productivity Board
09-12-20163
Centraal Planbureau
Governance
• Independent
• Ministry of Economic Affairs
• Secondary legislation prohibits any instructions
• HRM: Director fixed term appointment by Council of Ministers
• Director appoints all other personnel
• Fixed budget (max 20 percent external financing)
• Review Board
• Periodic External Review
09-12-20164
Centraal Planbureau
Stakeholders
09-12-20165
Centraal Planbureau
Topics
09-12-20166
Centraal Planbureau
Contributes to Evidence Based Policy
• Forecasts
• Policy Analysis
• Academic Research
• Guidelines
• Memos on request
• World Trade Monitor
• Promising Policies Series
• Costing of Election Manifestos
09-12-20167
Centraal Planbureau
Promising policies series: practical Tool Box
• Overview policy area
o Outcomes
o Benchmark (international)
o Existing policies
o Survey literature
• Policy options
o Menu of options
o Effects (trade offs)
• Labour market, Education, R&D,Housing, Mobility
09-12-20168
Centraal Planbureau
Charted Choices: assessing election manifestos
• Since 1986
• Scope gradually extended
• Offer to parties, no requirement
09-12-20169
Centraal Planbureau
Preparing the Agreement
10
Publications in seriesPromising Policies
(CPB, SCP, PBL)
CPB: Medium-termbaseline
Including sustainabilityanalysis
SBR-Committee of high-level civil servants
(including director CPB):advice on deficit target
and budgetary rules
09-12-2016
Centraal Planbureau
11
Preparing the Agreement
CPB analysisof the election
manifestos
09-12-2016
Centraal Planbureau
Lengthy Coalition Negotiations
12
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
19
45
19
46
19
48
19
51
19
52
19
56
19
58
19
59
19
63
19
65
19
66
19
67
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81
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82
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86
19
89
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94
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98
20
02
20
03
20
07
20
10
20
12
months Dutch government formation
Length coalition negotiations Average
09-12-2016
Centraal Planbureau
09-12-2016
Coalition Agreement and Financial Annex
13
Centraal Planbureau
14
The Coalition Agreement
CPB analysis ofthe CoalitionAgreement
• CPB updates its medium-term baseline on the basis ofthe Coalition Agreement
• Ministry of Finance updatesits multi-annual budget andsets outlay ceilings
09-12-2016
Centraal Planbureau
Costing of Election Platforms
09-12-201615
• Baseline scenario
• Party platform
• Assumption: party has majority in Parliament
Centraal Planbureau
Builds on regular work CPB, but
09-12-201616
• Many parties as opposed to 1 (the Cabinet)
• Many measures (for 4 years instead 1)
• Broad range of analyses at one point in time
• More novel, untested ideas
Centraal Planbureau
Tools
09-12-201617
Centraal Planbureau
Costing of Election Platforms - Content
09-12-201618
• Ex ante budgetary effects
• Effects on macro economic variables in medium term
• Effects on purchasing power in medium term
• Effect on government balance and debt in medium term
• Effect on sustainable public finances in long run
• Effect on structural employment in long run
• Effect on income inequality in long run
Centraal Planbureau
Costing of Election platforms, Pros
09-12-201619
• Reality check
• Comparability
• Improves technicalities in proposals
• Extends credibility to parties
• Starting point bargaining for new government
Centraal Planbureau
Role of the CPB
Costing of Election platforms, Cons
09-12-201620
• Individual party proposals
– Constrain on political debate (e.g. legal feasibility)
– Bias in proposals
– Gaming
• Scope
– Too broad and process too burdensome, but also
– What is not evaluated gets less attention
– There is more than economics
• Models
Centraal Planbureau
Comparative Chapter
09-12-201621
Centraal Planbureau
Party Chapter
09-12-201622
Centraal Planbureau
In Practice - 8th edition
09-12-201623
• 10 parties
• 2468 measures reported
size individual measure > 50 mln (= 0,008% of GDP)
• 3 months production time
• 60 people (+20PBL)
• 456 pages
Per party 14-18 pages with measures and 20 pages with results
Centraal Planbureau
Final Considerations
09-12-201624
• Focuses political debate on differences in policy view
• True assessment requires involvement of parties
• Broad scope of issues to avoid shopping / gaming
• In depth knowledge of government budget and forecasting
• Stakes are high: difficult to exclude parties, need to deliver
• You need to love to be hated