COVID-19 Modeling August 14, 2020 Presentation available at: dfr.vermont.gov
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COVID-19 Modeling August 14, 2020
Presentation available at:dfr.vermont.gov
2
National Data
3Source: Johns Hopkins University - August 14, 2020
National Data
99 days 43 days 28 days 15 days 17 days
Cases decreasing in South & West
Cases slowing in Midwest & Northeast
4
5Source: COVID Tracking Project - August 14, 2020
National Data
Most recorded deaths since May 15th
6
Regional Data
7Sources: COVID-19 Tracking Project, New York Time Covid-19 Database & Government of Quebec
Regional Monitoring: New Cases Week Over Week
Positive Cases August 7th to August 13th
7.11% Decrease in New Confirmed Cases
Positive Cases July 31st to August 6th
8
Regional Monitoring: Week Over Week Case Growth Since May 21, 2020
Sources: COVID-19 Tracking Project, New York Time Covid-19 Database & Government of Quebec
Second week with cases decreasing in the Northeast
Vermont Forecast Model
Source: Oliver Wyman Forecast Model - August 14, 2020
Focus for next three weeks: Possible spikes from returning out-of-state college students
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RESTART VERMONT
1. Syndromic Surveillance2. Viral Growth & Reproductive Rates3. Percentage of New Positive Tests4. Hospital & Critical Care Bed Capacity
Reopening Metrics
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Data Point 1: Syndromic Surveillance● Summary: Percentage of visits with COVID-19 like illness and Influenza diagnosis● Warning Flag: Percentage of visits exceeding 4% for multiple consecutive days
Source: Vermont Department of Health - August 13, 2020
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Data Point 2: Viral Growth and Reproductive Rates ● Summary: Case growth measured by daily, 3-day, 7-day, and effective reproductive rate (Rt)● Warning Flags: Sustained viral growth that would lead to <30% of open ICU beds
Source: Vermont Department of Health - August 13, 2020
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Data Point 3: Percentage of New Positive Tests● Summary: Percent of tests resulting in a new positive case● Warning Flags: New positives represent >5% of daily results
Source: Vermont Department of Health - August 13, 2020
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Data Point 4: Hospital & Critical Care Beds● Summary: Number of occupied and unoccupied medical surgical and ICU beds● Warning Flags: Reduction in ICU open beds to less than 30%
Source: Vermont Department of Health - August 13, 2020
15Source: Vermont Department of Health - August 13, 2020 ; tests measured as results reported to VDH by day
16
Travel Map Update
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Updated Travel Map
Source: Raw data from Johns Hopkins University—August 14, 2020 (dynamic map available at Vermont ACCD site)
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Improving: Moving from Yellow or Red to Green Worsening: Moving to Yellow or Red
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Travel Policy Standards
Source: Raw data from Johns Hopkins University—July 17, 2020 (dynamic map available at Vermont ACCD site)
New York/Connecticut/New Jersey European Union
Source: Raw data from Johns Hopkins University—August 14, 2020
Vermont
20
Updated Travel Map
Travel Map Expanded
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