UNITED STATES MEXICO ALGERIA ICELAND CCO MALI TUNISIA COSTA RICA PANAMA REPUBLIC HAITI CUBA GUATEMALA EL SALVADOR NICARAGUA HONDURAS JAMAICA GUINEA SIERRA LEONE LIBERIA GHANA MAURITIUS ILE DE LA RÉUNION GROENLAND (DENMARK) BURKINA FASO SENEGAL CABO VERDE ITALY SPAIN PORTUGAL FRANCE GERMANY SWITZERLAND CANADA IRELAND UNITED KINGDOM BELGIUM BELIZE BRAZIL ARGENTINA PERU BOLIVIA VENEZUELA ECUADOR KENYA DR CONGO SOUTH AFRICA LESOTHO ANGOLA NAMIBIA ZAMBIA MOZAMBIQUE COLOMBIA FRENCH GUYANA DOMINICAN GUYANA SURINAME BURUNDI UGANDA MALAWI ZIMBABWE BOTSWANA PARAGUAY CHILE URUGUAY TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO LIBYA EGYPT SUDAN MADAGASCAR NIGER CENTRAL AFRICAN REPUBLIC ETHIOPIA TANZANIA MAURITANIA GABON NIGERIA CHAD IVORY COAST TOGO SAO TOME & PRINCIPE RWANDA ERITREA CAMEROON BENIN CONGO SAUDI ARABIA PAKISTAN OMAN YEMEN IRAQ IRAN DJIBOUTI KUWAIT UNITED ARAB EMIRATES AFGHANISTAN KAZAKHSTAN INDIA TURKEY BANGLADESH ISRAEL JORDAN SYRIA LEBANON CYPRUS NEPAL KYRGYZSTAN TAJIKISTAN TURKMENISTAN GEORGIA ARMENIA BAHRAIN QATAR UZBEKISTAN AZERBAIJAN HUNGARY POLAND ROMANIA BULGARIA BOSNIA GREECE AUSTRIA SLOVENIA CZECH REPUBLIC SLOVAKIA NORWAY SWEDEN FINLAND UKRAINE LITHUANIA LATVIA ESTONIA BELARUS CHINA INDONESIA PHILIPPINES MORO SRI LANKA MYANMAR VIETNAM CAMBODIA LAOS MALAYSIA TAIWAN MALDIVES HONG KONG SINGAPORE THAILAND RUSSIA AUSTRALIA MONGOLIA JAPAN PAPUA NEW GUINEA NEW ZEALAND SOUTH KOREA GUINEA-BISSAU SERBIA MALTA PALESTINIAN TERRITORIES NORTH KOREA EQUATORIAL GUINEA TIMOR-LESTE SOUTH SUDAN COUNTRY RISK ASSESSMENT MAP • 3 RD QUARTER 2017 GERMANY FRANCE ITALY SPAIN UNITED KINGDOM FINLAND SWEDEN DENMARK PORTUGAL ND IRELAND LITHUANIA LATVIA ROMANIA POLAND UKRAINE BULGARIA HUNGARY SLOVAKIA CZECH REPUBLIC GREECE ALBANIA MONTENEGRO BOSNIA CROATIA SERBIA NETHERLANDS LUXEMBOURG ESTONIA BELARUS MALTA MOLDOVA BELGIUM NORWAY SLOVENIA MACEDONIA SWITZERLAND AUSTRIA 160 COUNTRIES UNDER THE MAGNIFYING GLASS A UNIQUE METHODOLOGY • Macroeconomic expertise in assessing country risk • Comprehension of the business environment • Microeconomic data collected over 70 years of payment experience BUSINESS DEFAULTING RISK VERY LOW LOW SATISFACTORY REASONABLE FAIRLY HIGH HIGH VERY HIGH EXTREME A1 A2 A3 A4 B C D E • Growth remains dynamic, with 3.5% expected for 2017 and 3.2% for 2018 • Thriving tourism is boosting household consumption and construction • The banking sector and public finances are now on a sound footing A4 CYPRUS C BELARUS • Belarus is benefiting from the recovery of activity in Russia. Better growth is expected, with 0.9% for 2017 and 1.5% for 2018 (following -3% in 2016) • Household consumption and exports to Europe should improve A3 HUNGARY • GDP growth is expected to strengthen (rising from 2.0% in 2016, to 3.6% in 2017 and then 3.4% in 2018) • The increase in household consumption and the strong rebound in investments is supported by the easing of lending conditions and the accelerated inflow of EU funds into the current EU budget programme • The lowest corporate tax rates in the EU • Improving financial sector, with a gradual decline in banking taxes and the stabilisation of non-performing loans A2 FINLAND • GDP growth is expected to contract in 2017, due to lower oil production and relatively low prices. Current account deficits will remain important • Despite some gradual fiscal consolidation, high fiscal deficits (around 10% of GDP) are expected to continue until around 2020 C OMAN • The Finnish economy entered a positive growth path in 2016 and perspectives are stable (1.3% in 2017 and even better in 2018, at 1.7%) • The negative consequences of trade restrictions with Russia have significantly diminished and exports are being supported by favourable external demand • The number of insolvencies dropped by -6% in 2016 and -19% in 2Q 2017 C C A4 A2 A3 UPGRADES DOWNGRADE