COUNTRY PRESENTATION (30 OCTOBER 2017)
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11
COUNTRY PRESENTATION
(30 OCTOBER 2017)
2
INTRODUCTION
3
SEQUENCE
4
National Disaster Management System of Pakistan
Progress on NDMP
Challenges & NDMA Documentary
National Emergency Operation Centre (NEOC)
National Disaster Management Plan (NDMP)
Disaster Specific to Pakistan Hazard Maps
Part –I: Disasters/ Hazards Specific to Pakistan and Disaster Management System
Part –III: Best Practices being followed
Part –II: Pakistan’s Response Mechanism
NATURAL DISASTERS SPECIFIC TO PAKISTAN
5
NATURAL DISASTERS SPECIFIC TO PAKISTAN
Attributed to
Climate Change
6
Hydro-Meteorological Hazards
Flash Floods Urban Floods Riverine Floods GLOF
Avalanches Land slides Drought Cyclones7
NATURAL DISASTERS SPECIFIC TO PAKISTAN
Earthquakes Landslides Tsunami
8
NATURAL DISASTERS SPECIFIC TO PAKISTAN
Geological Hazards
Industrial / Nuclear Power Reactors
Accidents
Oil Spills FiresEpidemics / Pandemics
Displacements Air Crashes Train Crashes Ship Fires
9
MAN-MADE HAZARDS
Effects of Climate Change on Pakistan
11
Effects of Climate Change on Pakistan
• Human Health
✓ Increase in Heat-related mortality as experienced recently in
Karachi
✓ Higher air and water temperatures favours reproduction of vectors of
disease - an increase in infectious diseases (malaria, dengue) or
other health impacts (pneumonia, heat strokes, cholera)
12
DISASTER HAZARDS MAPS
13
Pak – Major Earthquakes
2005, 7.6 M
AJK & KP
2008, 6.4 M
Ziarat
2013, 7.7 M
Awaran
14
2015, 8.1 M
Hindu Kush
Fault Lines Map
Pakistan
15
Earthquake Catalogue(Year 1900 – 31 Jul 2016)
Total: 13,654
Magnitude Numbers
< 4 3320
4 – 4.9 8905
5 -5.9 1231
6 – 6.9 151
> 7 47
Earthquake Vulnerability
Pak Earthquake Hazard Map
Pak Flood Hazard Map
Flood 2010Flood 2011Flood 2012Flood 2013Flood 2014Floods 2010-2015
Cumulative Flood Extent
Flood Vulnerability
16
Flood 2015
Pak Cyclone Hazard Map
Cyclone Vulnerability
2010
Cyclone Phet
2007
Cyclone Yemyin
17
Pak Drought Hazard Map
Drought Vulnerability
18
Pak Avalanche Hazard Map
Avalanche Vulnerability
19
Pak Landslides Hazard Map
Landslide Vulnerability
20
Pak GLOF Hazard Map
GLOF Vulnerability
21
22
Pak Tsunami Hazard Map
Tsunami Vulnerability
No
Hazard
23
NATIONAL DISASTER MANAGEMENT SYSTEM
EVOLUTION OF DISASTER MANAGEMENT SYSTEM
24
1958 - Calamity Act
1971 – Emergency Relief Cell (ERC)
2005 – Federal Relief Commission & ERRA
2007 – NDM Ordinance
2007 – Raising of NDMA and
Establishment of NDMC
2010 – NDM Act
2015 – Merger of ERC in NDMA
DISASTER MANAGEMENT STRUCTURE AS PER NDM ACT
NDM Act
NDMC
NDMA
Federal Departments
NDRF
Stakeholders
NIDM
PDMC
PDMAs
DDMAs
CommunityDistrict
Departments
Provincial Departments
Federal Level Provincial Level
Policy Formulation M/O Climate Change Enabler
Implementation
25
NDMC COMPOSITION
26
• Prime Minister - Chair
• Leaders of Opposition
(Senate & NA)
• Federal Ministers
(Related Ministries)
• All Chief Ministers including
Chief Minister GB
• Governor KP (For FATA)
• Prime Minister AJ&K
• Chairman JCSC
• Civil Society Members
• Co-opted Members
• Chairman NDMA- Secretary
Functions
NDMA Structure
28
Chairman
Member (Ops)
Resp Dte
R&R Dte
Log Dte
ICT Dte
Member (DRR)
Impl Dte
P&IC Dte
Media Dte
PMU
Member (A&F)
A&P Dte
Fin Dte
GCC
NIDM
Coord Dte
Functions
31
NDMA Functions
Policy Formulation
Coordination Implementation Monitoring
Entire Spectrum of Disaster Management
ChairmanDistrict Executive (ex-officio)
District Coordination Officer / Deputy Commissioner
District Police Officer (ex-officio)
Executive District Officer, Health
Other district level officers to beappointed by District Govt
Most Critical Tier
Members
DDMA Composition
Functions
32
NATIONAL EMERGENCY OPERATION CENTRE (NEOC)
34
35
Functioning of NEOC
• Analyse situation based upon severity of the disaster, initial damages / losses
in coordination with concerned PDMA and activate NEOC on 24/7 basis
• Liaison for information management with:-
Federal Government Provincial Government Non Government
Prime Minister’s Office (PMO) Chief Secretaries United Nations Agencies
Ministry of Climate Change
(MoCC)
Provincial Disaster Management
Authorities (PDMAs)
International Committee of the
Red Cross (ICRC)
Ministry of Interior (MoI) District Disaster Management
Authorities (DDMAs)
Pakistan Red Crescent Society
(PRCS)
Pakistan Meteorological
Department (PMD)
Commissioners /
Deputy Commissioners
Foreign Missions
Federal Flood Commission (FFC) Rescue Services Donor Agencies
Space and Upper Atmosphere
Commission (SUPARCO)
Civil Defence
Indus River System Authority
(IRSA)
Irrigation Departments
Pakistan Armed Forces Police Services
National Disaster Management Plan (NDMP)
38
National Disaster Management Plan (NDMP)
39
“To manage the complete spectrum of disasters by development of
DRR policies, strategies, measures and actions of all stakeholders, especially at
the National level; and to enhance institutional capacities, and human and
material resources for mitigation, prevention and preparedness, response and
recovery in disasters”
Mission
41
Forecast
Riverine Flood Management
Urban Flooding
Flood Disaster Management(Rescue, Relief, Recovery,
Reconstruction & Rehabilitation)
Pak Met Deptt
Federal Level
FFC
Provincial Level
PIDs
Terbela & Mangla
Dams
WAPDA
Coord with India
PCIW
Municipal Corporations /
Development Authorities of
City Governments
National Coord
NDMA
Provincial Coord
PDMAs
District Coord
DDMAs
Infrastructure
National
Communication
by NHA
Railway
Communication by
Pak Railways
Telecommunication
by PTA
Responsibility Matrix – Flood
42
Earthquake Warning
Alerts by
PMD
Dissemination of Alerts by
NDMA / PDMAs
Damage Assessment
Initial by
DDMAs
Detailed by DDMAs /
PDMAs / Pak Army Teams
M&E by
NDMA
Earthquake Disaster
Management
National Coord by
NDMA
Provincial Coord by
PDMAs
District Coord
by DDMAs
Infrastructure
National Communication by
NHA
Railway Communication by
Pak Railways
Telecommunication
by PTA
1 2 3 4
Responsibility Matrix – Earthquake
National DRR Policy 2013
43
Risk Knowledge
Risk Atlas
Risk Assessments
Database
Research
Prevention &
Mitigation
DRR – High Risk Areas
Resilient Development
Key Infrastructure
Risk Awareness
Preparedness
Multi Hazard EWS
National Capacity
Financing Mechanisms
Prevention & Mitigation
Awareness & CapacityBuilding
Preparedness
Early Warning
Disaster
Rescue Relief
Recovery
Rehabilitation
Reconstruction
Risk Assessment
DISASTER MANAGEMENT SPECTRUM
44
DISASTER MANAGEMENT STAKEHOLDERS
Donors
45
GOOD PRACTICES
47
48
➢ National Disaster Management Plan (NDMP), 2013-22
➢ National Disaster Response Plan (NDRP), 2010
➢ Annual Monsoon Contingency Plans, 2010-2017
➢ National Drought Mitigation and Response Plan, 2015
➢ National Plan for Industrial / Technical Disasters
➢ Cyclone Contingency Plan for Karachi - 2008
➢ National Maritime Disaster Contingency Plan
Disaster Management Plans
GOOD PRACTICES
49
Disaster Management Policies / Guidelines / Frameworks
➢ National Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) Policy, 2013
➢ National Disaster Risk Management Framework (2007-2012)
➢ National Gender & Child Cell Framework 2013
➢ National Policy Guidelines on Vulnerable Groups in Disasters 2014
➢ Pakistan School Safety Framework 2016 piloted in 68 Schools across Pakistan
➢ Implementation Framework on the National Policy Guidelines 2016
➢ Guidelines on Minimum Ex Gratia Assistance to Persons Affected by Man-made
and Natural Disasters 2016
GOOD PRACTICES
50
Disaster Management Policies / Guidelines / Frameworks
➢ Multi Hazard Vulnerability & Risk Assessment (MHVRA) Policy Guidelines 2016
➢ Guidelines on Gender Based Violence (GBV) Mainstreaming in Disasters 2016
➢ Guidelines on Stocking, Maintenance and Supply of Relief & Rescue Items 2016
➢ Guidelines on Minimum Standards of Relief in Camps 2017
➢ Guidelines on Management of Dead in Disasters 2017
➢ Multi-Sector Initial Rapid Assessment (MIRA) Guidelines 2017
➢ Guidelines on Heat Wave Management 2017
GOOD PRACTICES
GOOD PRACTICES
51
➢ National Disaster Management Act (NDM Act) Promulgated
➢ National & Provincial Disaster Management Authorities established including
SDMA, GBDMA & FDMA. District Disaster Management Authorities notified
➢ National Disaster Management Fund (NDMF) established
➢ National Institute of Disaster Management (NIDM) functioning
➢ Merger of Emergency Relief Cell (ERC) of Cabinet Division with NDMA
➢ NDMP Implementation Steering Committee formed
➢ Gender & Child Cell (GCC) – National & Provincial Level
Institutional Strengthening
54
➢ Capability developed to support over 0.3 Million people across the Country
➢ Country wide elaborate Warehouse Network established
➢ Capacity building of 7200 persons through NIDM from 2010 to 2017
➢ National Industrial Mock Exercise (Engro Fertilizers in year 2010 & March
2016) & (Fauji Fertilizer Company in March 2017)
➢ National Disaster Management Simulation Exercises conducted in year 2014 &
2015
➢ Conduct of training for Core Group & Master Trainers as part of PSSF
Strengthening of Response Mechanism
GOOD PRACTICES
57
Strengthening of Response Mechanism
➢ Government Official Emergency Response Exercise (GOERE) conducted all
across the Country in 2016
➢ Six modern Urban Search & Rescue (USAR) Teams raised in Mardan, Islamabad,
Rawalpindi, Lahore, Karachi and Gilgit
➢ Proactive National backup to all provinces and PDMAs at all times
➢ Flood fighting response capability of Pak Army enhanced through provision of
flood relief rescue equipment to rescue 1,000 Persons at a time
➢ Coordination mechanism strengthened with MoI to use its Aviation Assets
during disasters
GOOD PRACTICES
58
DRR Measures
➢ Legislation for Enforcement of Building Codes in final stages
➢ National Fire and Life Safety Codes in final stages of notification
➢ NFPP – IV approved by CCI. NDMA was associated in the process
➢ Modernization of Pak Met Department is being pursued. Concept approval of the
Project amounting to PKR 19 Billion has been granted by CDWP. This will
significantly enhance the Early Warning capability
GOOD PRACTICES
NDMP Progress
62
DRR Mainstreaming
➢ Ministries tasked to develop Sectoral DRR Mainstreaming Strategies and
establish DRR Mainstreaming cells
➢ DRR checklist made integral part of all Public Sector Development Projects
➢ DRR approach integrated in Recovery and Reconstruction phases of disasters
➢ Bachelor and Master level program on DM approved & instituted by HEC
63
Advocacy & Awareness
➢ 8th October notified as National Disaster Awareness Day since year 2015
➢ Active Social Media presence & dynamic website with global viewership
➢ 14 x Public Service Messages (PSMs) developed
➢ Documentaries on “Disaster Resilient Pakistan” & “Vulnerable Groups”
➢ Special Supplement on Disaster Awareness Day 2015 & 16
➢ Regular awareness advertisement on media
➢ National level Media Round Table & 3 x Media Training Workshops at Islamabad,
Karachi & Lahore for responsible media reporting during disasters
➢ Child Centered & Gender Sensitive IEC material for hazards / disasters
GOOD PRACTICES
64
Community Early Warning
• Effective SMS based Early Warning System with assistance of PTA
• Over 58 million SMS Alerts disseminated to public for Flood warning,
Earthquake (2014 & 2015) & Heat Wave (2016 & 2017)
• Over 300,000 persons evacuated through early warnings
• Consolidation of mechanism is being pursued for inclusion in PTA Regulations
GOOD PRACTICES
Challenges for Disaster Management
65
Challenges for Disaster Management
66
➢ Limited Capacity of Metrological Forecast and Early Warning System
➢ Extreme vulnerability against floods till implementation of National Flood
Protection Plan – IV
➢ Trans border Flood Early Warning Mechanism with India is weak
➢ Mind set of Relief Centric Approach instead of DRR Approach
➢ Emergency Response Departments at District Level is weak which exercises
premature pull on Armed Forces
➢ Local Government system is not involved in disaster management
➢ Disaster management planning is floods specific instead of multiple disasters
Way Forward and NDMA’s Priorities
67
68
➢ Legislative Reforms
➢ Institutional Strengthening with focus on District Disaster Management
Authorities
➢ Implementation of NDMP & invest in DRR
➢ Promote Urban Resilience
➢ Micro Level Risk Assessment of entire Country in prioritized manner
➢ Implementing building codes and Retrofitting of existing infrastructure
➢ NIDM Building construction
➢ Modernizing NEOC
NDMA’s Priorities
69
➢ Develop Disaster Management information System
➢ Capacity Building of the Government Officials and Community based DRM
➢ Modernize Weather & Flood Forecasting capability
➢ Enhance Response and logistic capacities
➢ Focus on Gender Equality and Vulnerable Groups
➢ Disaster Risk Financing including micro level risk insurance mechanisms
➢ Help promote food security particularly in drought prone areas
➢ Advocacy and awareness for enhanced resilience
NDMA’s Priorities
NATIONAL DISASTER MANAGEMENT DECISION SUPPORT
SYSTEM
70
Multi-hazard vulnerability and risk assessment puts
different types of hazards into a system for
comprehensive evaluation, taking into probability,
multiple hazardous events for mutual interactions and
interrelations.
The aim of assessment is to have the overall view of
the effects and mapping the expected loss due to the
occurrence of various natural disasters.
It intends to assess the degree of vulnerability,
exposure and risk of study area to multiple impending
hazards
Multi-Hazard Vulnerability and Risk
Assessment (MHVRA)
Other Sectorial Linkages
72
NDMP 2012-2022(Intervention 3 & 4)
National DRR Policy 2013(2.3.1, 2.3.2, 3.1.1, 3.1.2, 3.2.2)
SFDs 2015-2030(Priority 1,2,3 & 4)
SDGs 2016-2030(Goal 1,2 , 11, 13 & 15)
Pakistan Vision 2025(Pillar 1,2 and 3)
National Climate Change Policy, 2012(Policy Measures 4.7 & 5.4)
NDMA POLICY & EXECUTION
GUIDELINES FOR THE CONDUCT
OF MHVRA
Objectives
74
• Maintain unanimity in risk assessment methodology
• Assessments results to be consolidated in National
MHVRA database at NDMA
• Study output should be compatible with National
MHVRA database and Risk Analytical tools
• Government endorsed datasets to be used
• Collected data be endorsed by NDMA
• Regulation of National Composite Risk Index
Objectives
75
• Maintain Unanimity in Field Surveys both in terms of
Data Collection Forms and Sample Size
• Micro zonation study at the level of UC’s
• Use of prescribed Hazard Modeling Tools as defined
specifically by NDMA Guidelines
• Stage wise M&E by NDMA
• Compliance to National MHVRA Guidelines
Multi Hazard Vulnerability & Risk Assessment
(MHVRA)
7676
Methodology
77
Methodology Adopted
78
Hazard Selection
Hazard Assessment
Exposure & Vulnerability Assessment
Coping Capacity Assessments
Risk Assessment
Risk Treatment & DRR Intervention
Programing
Cost Effectiveness & Cost Benefit
Analysis
Geo-Spatial Database
Development
(1)
(2)
(3)
(6)
(5)
(4)
(7)
(8)
General Maps
79
79
Administrative Reference
Land cover/Land useTehsils Union Councils
Tehsil Nurpur 10
Tehsil Khushab 16
Tehsil Qaidabad 11
Tehsil Nowshehra 6
Legend Class Area (km²) %
Orchards 8.75 0.1
Crop Irrigated 1440.96 22
Crop Marginal and Irrigated Saline 28.06 0.4
Crop in Flood Plain 83.56 1.3
Crop Rainfed 722.89 11
Forest - Natural Trees and Mangroves 685.44 10.5
Natural Vegetation in Wet Areas 39.63 0.6
Range Lands - Natural Shrubs and Herbs 429.67 6.6
Built-Up 205.24 3.1
Bare Areas 36.67 0.6
Bare Areas with sparse natural vegetation 2725.68 41.6
Wet Areas 149.68 2.3
Snow and Glaciers 0 0
6556.22
Khushab
Grand Total
Elevation and Topography
Geology
Geological Formation Area (Km2)
Carboniferous Rocks (C) 60224118
Jurassic and Triassic Sedimentary Rocks (Jtr) 43529423
Permian Sedimentary Rocks (P) 402783046
Alluvium (Q) 185763229
Stream Deposits (Qf) 379500280
Piedmont Deposits (Qpd) 142786644
Scree (QS) 137653015
Older Eolian Deposits (QSc) 191739005
Bedrock (R) 200961261
Eocene and Paleocene Sedimentary Rocks (Tep) 622985873
Pliocene and Miocene Sedimentary Rocks (Tpm) 11629259
Population
Population Density
Settlements
HAZARD ASSESSMENT
80
Hazard Assessment
81
Direct Mapping
Statistical Analysis
Mathematical Models
Spatial Multi- Criteria Analysis
Seismic Hazard Analysis
82
82
Historical Earthquakes
Earthquake Hazard,
50 Years Return PeriodEarthquake Hazard,
100 Years Return Period
Earthquake Hazard,
250 Years Return Period
Earthquake Hazard,
475 Years Return Period
EXPOSURE & VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT
83
Elements at Risk
84
Physical Infrastructure
Buildings
Roads
Railways
Bridges
Airports
Critical Facilities
Emergency Shelters
Schools
Hospitals
Rescue Services
Police Stations
Dams
Power Plants
Communication Infrastructure
Socio-EconomicActivities
Business & Trade
Population
Livelihood
Vulnerable Groups
Low Income Groups
Environmental
Loss of
Biodiversity
Damaged
Landscape
Climate Change
Soil
Degradation
COPING CAPACITY ASSESSMENT
85
Health Facilities
86
Type
2. HR in
Primary
Health Care
3. HR in
Secondary
Health Care
DHQ THQ RHC
BHU Dispensaries MCH Centers
3. Health
Facilities
Facility Code Facility Name Union Council
Facility Type No of Beds Class
Reporting Status Function Status Area Type
Name of Incharge Contact Number Email
Senior Medical Officer Medical Officer Lady Medical Officer
Dental Surgeon Head Nurse Staff Nurse
Medical Assistant Sanitary Inspector Lab Assistants
Dental Assistant X-Ray Assistant Lady Health Visitor
Medical Technician Dispenser EPI VaccinatorCDC Supervisor Midwife LHW
MS/AMS/Deputy MS Medical Specialist Surgical Specialist
Cardiologist Chest Specialist Neurosurgeon
Orthopedic Surgeon Child Specialists Gynecologists
Eye Specialists ENT Specialists Anesthetist
Pathologist Radiologist PMO/APMO/CMO/SMO/MO
1.
2.
3.
4.
Capacity (Rescue 1122)
87
1. Vehicles
2. Flood
Resources
3. Rescue
Stats
District No of Ambulances Fire Vehicles
Water Bowser Rescue Vehicle GDV
Water R. Van Aerial Platform TT Ladder
Foam Vehicle Trucks (5 Tons) Boat Carrier Trucks
District Name No of Boats Life Jackets
SCUBA Torches Life Buoys
Life Rings OARS Nylon Rope
Tents Mosquito Net Carpets
Plastic Mats Dry Suits
District Name Total Calls Emergency Calls
Road Accidents Medical Fire
Building Collapse Crime Incidents Drowning
Blast/Explosion Miscellaneous Fake Calls
Rescued Patients
RISK ASSESSMENT
88
RISK = HAZARD * VULNERABILITY / CAPACITIES
Framework of Risk Assessment
Hazard = Probability of event with a certain magnitude
•Spatial probability: probability of a hazard event
with a certain intensity happening at a particular
location (e.g. pixel)
•Temporal probability: probability that an event
with a certain intensity happens within a given
period of time.
•Magnitude probability: probability that an event
happening has a certain magnitude/intensity
Sometimes these 3 are evaluated
separately, sometimes jointly
Risk - Factor Components
90
Severity
Probability
HAZARD
5- Indicators
Structures
Population
Economy
Environmental
Livelihood
EXPOSURE
5- Indicators
Physical
Social
Economic
Environmental
VULNERABILITY
25- Indicators
Coping Capacity
Adaptive Capacity
CAPACITY
MEASURES
38- Indicators
Risk Assessment
91
UC Risk
DHAIWAL High
HASSAN PUR
TIWANA High
KHUSHAB CITY High
NARI Extremely High
SANDRAL High
TALOKAR High
JAURA KALAN High
KHAI KHURD High
Risk Prone Union Councils
Risk Assessment
92
UC Risk
18 HAZARI High
CHATTA High
DHORIWALA High
HASANA High
HASSAN KHAN High
JHANG MC High
KOT SAI SINGH High
MALHOANA High
NADHA GARH High
PABBAR WALA High
PAKKE WALA High
PIR KOT SECHANA High
RASUL PUR High
SHAH JEWANA High
SULTAN PUR High
GODARA High
HASSU BELA High
HAZRAT SULTAN BAHU High
KOT BAHUDAR SHAH High
KOT MAPAL High
PIR ABDUL REHMAN High
RANJIT KOT High
DAB KALAN High
QASIM BHARWANA High
Risk Prone Union Councils
COST BENEFIT ANALYSIS
93
Cost Benefit/Effective Analysis
94
CBA of DRR Interventions
Key Benefits
95
Support to other DM Interventions
96
Multi Hazard Vulnerability & Risk Assessment
Interventions for Policy Makers and Planners (GOERE)
Community Level Adaptation
Interventions (CBDRM & MOVERE)
Advocacy & Awareness Campaigns
Risk Sensitive Planning for Development
Land Use Planning and Safer Local Administration
Climate Change Impacts and future
Scenarios Projections
Long term land use planning
Help in mainstreaming DRR in development projects
Mapping of resources and presenting their national spatial
perspective
Vulnerable area mapping
Provide base line information for DRM Plans at District, Tehsil
and UC level
Analysis of data in a more meaningful manner to draw
conclusions applicable to disaster management
97
Benefits
Act as a decision making tool for policy makers
Preparation of effective emergency response plan
Help in selection and optimization of Early Warning Systems
Facilitate in optimal deployment of rescue & relief facilities
Provide targeted areas for carrying out Community Based
Disaster Risk Reduction trainings
98
Benefits
THANK YOU
99
100
SESSION 4 (1100 – 1230 HOURS)
Risk Transfer Mechanisms – Lessons Learnt
from the Sub-region and Strategies for
Countries with Special Needs
101
➢ Risk Transfer Mechanisms in South Asia – Challenges and Potentials – Mr. Erik
Khaegaard, Disaster Risk Management Specialist, Asian Development Bank
➢ Risk Transfer Mechanisms – Experience from India – Mr. Pavan Kumar Singh,
Senior Research Officer, National Disaster Management Authority, India
➢ Innovative financial solutions / mechanisms for South-Asian countries with special
needs – Recorded Presentation of Mr. Giriraj Amarnath, Research Group Leader –
Water Risks and Disasters, International Water Management Institute, Sri Lanka
➢ Discussion
SEQUENCE OF PRESENTAIONS
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