Country Analysis Part 2 ElsenburgA.G. Partridge THE AFRICA AGENDA 06 November 2013.

Country Analysis Part 2

Elsenburg A.G. Partridge

THE AFRICA AGENDA

06 November 2013

© Western Cape Government 2012 | 2Go to Insert > Header & Footer > Enter presentation name into footer field

Overview

Areas of Analysis:

Economy

Governance

Population

Infrastructure

Investment

Trade

Agriculture

Technology & Innovation

Consumption

Water

Country Focus

SADC• Angola• Mozambique• Zambia

East Africa• Kenya• Tanzania

West Africa• Nigeria• Ghana

North Africa• Egypt• Tunisia

Economy


Economy

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita (constant 2000 US$)

Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators

Mozambique Angola Zambia Kenya Tanzania Nigeria Ghana Egypt Tunisia0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

South Africa3 753 (2010)

India804 (2010)

European Union

19 395 (2010)Korea, Republic

16 219 (2010)

China2 427 (2010)


Economy

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Growth

Country

GDP 2001 (constant 2000 US$

billion)


billion)

% Change 2001-2011

5 year Average Annual Growth

Rate 2001-2006


Rate 2006-2011


Rate 2001-2011

Angola 4.29 12.36 188.33 % 13.43 % 8.96 % 11.17 %

Egypt 103.37 163.14 57.83 % 4.18 % 5.16 % 4.67 %

Ghana 5.18 10.05 94.00 % 5.52 % 8.20 % 6.85 %

Kenya 13.19 19.90 50.91 % 4.14 % 4.26 % 4.20 %

Mozambique

4.82 9.75 102.12 % 7.71 % 6.87 % 7.29 %

Nigeria 47.41 91.96 93.97 % 6.76 % 6.94 % 6.85 %

Tanzania 10.80 21.25 96.85 % 7.20 % 6.82 % 7.01 %

Tunisia 22.53 32.58 44.59 % 4.55 % 2.96 % 3.76 %

Zambia 3.41 5.98 75.28 % 5.08 % 6.47 % 5.77 %Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators


Economy


Country


billion)


billion)

% Change 2001-2011


Rate 2001-2006


Rate 2006-2011


Rate 2001-2011

Angola 4.29 12.36188.33

%13.43 % 8.96 %

11.17 %

Egypt 103.37 163.14 57.83 % 4.18 % 5.16 % 4.67 %

Ghana 5.18 10.05 94.00 % 5.52 % 8.20 % 6.85 %

Kenya 13.19 19.90 50.91 % 4.14 % 4.26 % 4.20 %

Mozambique

4.82 9.75 102.12 % 7.71 % 6.87 % 7.29 %

Nigeria 47.41 91.96 93.97 % 6.76 % 6.94 % 6.85 %

Tanzania 10.80 21.25 96.85 % 7.20 % 6.82 % 7.01 %

Tunisia 22.53 32.58 44.59 % 4.55 % 2.96 % 3.76 %

Zambia 3.41 5.98 75.28 % 5.08 % 6.47 % 5.77 %Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators


Economy


Country


billion)


billion)

% Change 2001-2011


Rate 2001-2006


Rate 2006-2011


Rate 2001-2011

Angola 4.29 12.36 188.33 % 13.43 % 8.96 % 11.17 %

Egypt 103.37 163.14 57.83 % 4.18 % 5.16 % 4.67 %

Ghana 5.18 10.0594.00

%5.52 % 8.20 % 6.85 %

Kenya 13.19 19.90 50.91 % 4.14 % 4.26 % 4.20 %

Mozambique

4.82 9.75102.12

%7.71 % 6.87 % 7.29 %

Nigeria 47.41 91.9693.97

%6.76 % 6.94 % 6.85 %

Tanzania 10.80 21.2596.85

%7.20 % 6.82 % 7.01 %

Tunisia 22.53 32.58 44.59 % 4.55 % 2.96 % 3.76 %

Zambia 3.41 5.98 75.28 % 5.08 % 6.47 % 5.77 %



Economy

Source: International Futures Project, Pardee Centre for International Futures

Angola Egypt Ghana Kenya Mozambique Nigeria Tanzania Tunisia Zambia0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060

Con

stan

t 2

00

5 P

PP$

Th

ou

san

ds

Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Per Capita Forecasts

South Africa 2010

BRICS (5) 2010

Latin America 2010

USA 2010

South Korea 2010

EU (27) 2010


Economy

Inflation, consumer prices (annual %)

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Mozambique

Angola

Zambia

Kenya

Tanzania

Nigeria

Ghana

Egypt, Arab Rep.

Tunisia



Economy

Inflation, consumer prices (annual %)



Economy

Poverty Statistics


Country

Poverty Headcount:$1.25 / day,

PPP(% of

population)


PPP(% of

population)

Inequality(Gini

Index)

Prevalence of Undernourishm

ent (% of population)

Life Expectancy at Birth(years)

Angola 54 % (2000) 70 % (2000) 59 (2000) 58 % (2011) 39 (2011)

Egypt 2 % (2008) 15 % (2008) 31 (2008) 5 % (2011) 73 (2011)

Ghana 29 % (2006) 52 % (2006) 43 (2006) 5 % (2011) 64 (2011)

Kenya 43 % (2005) 67 % (2005) 48 (2005) 30 % (2011) 57 (2011)

Mozambique

60 % (2005) 82 % (2005) 46 (2008) 39 % (2011) 50 (2011)

Nigeria 68 % (2010) 84 % (2010) 49 (2010) 9 % (2011) 52 (2010)

Tanzania 68 % (2007) 88 % (2007) 38 (2007) 39 % (2011) 58 (2011)

Tunisia 1 % (2008) 4 % (2008) 36 (2010) 5 % (2011) 75 (2011)

Zambia 74 % (2010) 87 % (2010) 57 (2010) 47 % (2011) 49 (2011)


Economy

Poverty Statistics


Country


PPP(% of

population)


PPP(% of

population)

Inequality(Gini

Index)




Angola 54 % (2000)70 %

(2000)59 (2000) 58 % (2011) 39 (2011)

Egypt 2 % (2008) 15 % (2008) 31 (2008) 5 % (2011) 73 (2011)

Ghana 29 % (2006)52 %

(2006)43 (2006) 5 % (2011) 64 (2011)

Kenya 43 % (2005)67 %

(2005)48 (2005) 30 % (2011) 57 (2011)

Mozambique

60 % (2005)82 %

(2005)46 (2008) 39 % (2011) 50 (2011)

Nigeria 68 % (2010)84 %

(2010)49 (2010) 9 % (2011) 52 (2010)

Tanzania 68 % (2007)88 %

(2007)38 (2007) 39 % (2011) 58 (2011)

Tunisia 1 % (2008) 4 % (2008) 36 (2010) 5 % (2011) 75 (2011)

Zambia 74 % (2010)87 %

(2010)57 (2010) 47 % (2011) 49 (2011)


Economy

Poverty Statistics


Country


PPP(% of

population)


PPP(% of

population)

Inequality(Gini

Index)




Angola54 %

(2000)70 % (2000) 59 (2000) 58 % (2011) 39 (2011)

Egypt 2 % (2008) 15 % (2008) 31 (2008) 5 % (2011) 73 (2011)

Ghana 29 % (2006) 52 % (2006) 43 (2006) 5 % (2011) 64 (2011)

Kenya 43 % (2005) 67 % (2005) 48 (2005) 30 % (2011) 57 (2011)

Mozambique

60 % (2005)

82 % (2005) 46 (2008) 39 % (2011) 50 (2011)

Nigeria68 %

(2010)84 % (2010) 49 (2010) 9 % (2011) 52 (2010)

Tanzania68 %

(2007)88 % (2007) 38 (2007) 39 % (2011) 58 (2011)

Tunisia 1 % (2008) 4 % (2008) 36 (2010) 5 % (2011) 75 (2011)

Zambia74 %

(2010)87 % (2010) 57 (2010) 47 % (2011) 49 (2011)


Economy

Poverty Statistics


Country


PPP(% of

population)


PPP(% of

population)

Inequality(Gini

Index)




Angola 54 % (2000) 70 % (2000) 59 (2000) 58 % (2011) 39 (2011)

Egypt 2 % (2008) 15 % (2008)

31 (2008) 5 % (2011) 73

(2011)

Ghana 29 % (2006) 52 % (2006) 43 (2006) 5 % (2011) 64 (2011)

Kenya 43 % (2005) 67 % (2005) 48 (2005) 30 % (2011) 57 (2011)

Mozambique

60 % (2005) 82 % (2005) 46 (2008) 39 % (2011) 50 (2011)

Nigeria 68 % (2010) 84 % (2010) 49 (2010) 9 % (2011) 52 (2010)

Tanzania 68 % (2007) 88 % (2007) 38 (2007) 39 % (2011) 58 (2011)

Tunisia 1 % (2008) 4 % (2008) 36 (2010) 5 % (2011) 75

(2011)

Zambia 74 % (2010) 87 % (2010) 57 (2010) 47 % (2011) 49 (2011)

Governance


Governance

Worldwide Governance Indicators (Worldbank)

Highs

Consistent above par scores for Ghana

Improved “Political Stability and Absence of Violence” Between 1996 and 2011:

• Angola: Rock bottom in 1998 to a relatively average level in 2011

• Zambia: Significantly below average in 1996, significantly above average in 2011

Significant improvements in “Voice and Accountability” for Kenya

Lows

Nigeria performs poorly across the board

• Bottom percentile for “Political Stability and Absence of Violence”, “Regulatory Quality” and “Control of Corruption” categories

Angola still performing poorly on other measures of governance

• Bottom percentile for “Control of Corruption” category

Kenya performing poorly in most areas

• Bottom percentile for “Political Stability and Absence of Violence” category

Tunisia and Egypt show 2011 dip for all categories other than “Voice and Accountability”


Governance

Ease of Doing Business Rankings (rankings of 174 countries)

1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53 57 61 65 69 73 77 81 85 89 93 97 101105109113117121125129133137141145149153157161165169173

Angola172

Tunisia50

Kenya121

Nigeria131

Tanzania134

Mozambique

146

Egypt109

Zambia94

Ghana64

Source: IFC / Worldbank, Doing Business


Governance

Biggest Barriers to Business

1 2 3 4 5

MozambiqueAccess to Financing

CorruptionInefficient government bureaucracy

InflationInadequate supply of infrastructure

AngolaInefficient government bureaucracy

Inadequately educated workforce

Inadequate supply of infrastructure

CorruptionAccess to Financing

ZambiaAccess to Financing

CorruptionInadequate supply of infrastructure

Tax RatesInefficient government bureaucracy

Kenya CorruptionAccess to Financing

Inefficient government bureaucracy


Crime and Theft

Tanzania CorruptionAccess to Financing


Tax Rates Tax Regulations

NigeriaAccess to Financing


Corruption Policy InstabilityGovernment Instability / Coups

GhanaAccess to Financing


InflationInefficient government bureaucracy

Corruption

Egypt Corruption InflationInadequately educated workforce

Tax RegulationsAccess to Financing

TunisiaAccess to Financing

Restrictive labor regulations


Foreign Currency Regulations


Source: World Economic Forum, Global Competitiveness Report 2010-2011


Governance


1 2 3 4 5

MozambiqueAccess to Financing

CorruptionInefficient government bureaucracy





CorruptionAccess to Financing

ZambiaAccess to Financing

CorruptionInadequate supply of infrastructure

Tax RatesInefficient government bureaucracy

Kenya CorruptionAccess to Financing



Crime and Theft

Tanzania CorruptionAccess to Financing





Corruption Policy InstabilityGovernment Instability / Coups




Corruption










Governance


1 2 3 4 5

MozambiqueAccess to Financing Corruption





Inadequate supply of infrastructure Corruption Access to

Financing

ZambiaAccess to Financing Corruption Inadequate supply

of infrastructureTax Rates


Kenya Corruption Access to Financing



Crime and Theft

Tanzania Corruption Access to Financing




Inadequate supply of infrastructure Corruption Policy Instability

Government Instability / Coups




Corruption









Population


Population

Total Populations (million people)


South Africa Tunisia Angola Mozambique Ghana Kenya Tanzania Egypt Nigeria0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

51

1120

24 25

4246

83

162

412 million people

6% of world population


Population

Urban Population (% of total population)


Angola Egypt Ghana Kenya Mozambique Nigeria Tanzania Tunisia Zambia0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010


Population

Age Distributions (% of population)


0-4 years; 17%

5-14 years; 28%15-29 years;

27%

30-59 years; 24%

60 + years; 5%Mozambique

0-4 years; 16%

5-14 years; 26%15-29 years;

30%

30-59 years; 24%

60 + years; 4%Kenya

0-4 years; 18%

5-14 years; 28%

15-29 years; 28%

30-59 years; 21%

60 + years; 5%Zambia

0-4 years; 14%

5-14 years; 24%15-29 years; 28%

30-59 years; 27%

60 + years; 6%Ghana

0-4 years; 17%

5-14 years; 26%15-29 years;

27%

30-59 years; 24%

60 + years; 5%Nigeria

0-4 years; 18%

5-14 years; 29%

15-29 years; 27%

30-59 years; 22%

60 + years; 4%Angola

0-4 years; 11%

5-14 years; 20%

15-29 years; 29%

30-59 years; 32%

60 + years; 8%Egypt

0-4 years; 8%

5-14 years; 15%

15-29 years; 29%

30-59 years; 38%

60 + years; 10%Tunisia0-4 years; 18%

5-14 years; 27%15-29 years;

28%

30-59 years; 23%

60 + years; 5%Tanzania

Source: World Bank, Health Nutrition and Population Statistics

Infrastructure


Infrastructure

Roads Paved (% of total road network)

Egypt Tunisia Tanzania Zambia Mozambique Nigeria Kenya Ghana Angola0%

100%

92%

76%

67%

22% 21%

15% 14%13%

10%


Infrastructure

Communications Infrastructure (users per 100 people)

Angola Ghana Kenya Nigeria Mozambique Zambia Tanzania Tunisia Egypt0

100

0.5 1.1 0.9 0.4 0.5 0.8 0.510.1 8.1

1.5 1.1 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.311.5 10.6T

ele

ph

on

e

La

nd

line

s


100

0.2 0.7 0.4 0.0 0.3 1.0 0.3 1.3 2.0

48.4

84.8

67.558.6

32.8

60.6 55.5

116.9

101.1

Ce

llula

r Ph

on

e

Su

bsc

rip

tio

ns


100

0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 2.8 0.6

14.8 14.1

28.0 28.4

4.311.5 12.0

39.1 38.7

Inte

rne

t S

ub

scri

p-

tio

ns


Infrastructure

Electricity Infrastructure

Access(% of

population)

Power Outages in a Typical Month

Angola 26 % (2009) 5 (2010)

Egypt 100% (2009) 0 (2008)

Ghana 61 % (2009) 10 (2007)

Kenya 16 % (2009) 7 (2007)

Mozambique 12 % (2009) 3 (2007)

Nigeria 51 % (2009) 26 (2007)

Tanzania 14 % (2009) 12 (2006)

Tunisia 100% (2009) [no data]

Zambia 19% (2009) 3 (2007)


Infrastructure


Access(% of

population)


Angola 26 % (2009) 5 (2010)

Egypt 100% (2009) 0 (2008)

Ghana 61 % (2009) 10 (2007)

Kenya 16 % (2009) 7 (2007)

Mozambique 12 % (2009) 3 (2007)

Nigeria 51 % (2009) 26 (2007)

Tanzania 14 % (2009) 12 (2006)


Zambia 19% (2009) 3 (2007)


Infrastructure


Access(% of

population)


Angola 26 % (2009) 5 (2010)

Egypt 100% (2009) 0 (2008)

Ghana 61 % (2009) 10 (2007)

Kenya 16 % (2009) 7 (2007)

Mozambique 12 % (2009) 3 (2007)

Nigeria 51 % (2009) 26 (2007)

Tanzania 14 % (2009) 12 (2006)


Zambia 19% (2009) 3 (2007)

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Quality of Electricity Supply (/7)

Investment


Investment

Key Points

Focus on Foreign Direct Investment (FDI)

FDI Data Patchy Limiting Cross-Country Comparisons

Data used: UNCTAD, Investment Map

Past Decade Has Seen Significant Rise in FDI flows into Africa

South Africa Biggest Contributor to FDI to Tanzania, 3rd Biggest

Contributor to Mozambique

Trade


Trade

Key Points

Trade discussed in detail in market attractiveness section

Non-Tariff Barriers

Agriculture


Agriculture

Agricultural Production

Angola Egypt Kenya Mozambique Tanzania Tunisia Zambia0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50Agriculture Sharein GDP (%)

1990

2010

Angola Egypt Kenya Mozambique Tanzania Tunisia Zambia0%

50%

100%

150%

200%

% Change inAgriculture

Value Added,1990-2010


Agriculture

Food Security: Agricultural Production less Agricultural Demand

Source: International Futures Project, Pardee Centre for International Futures

Angola Egypt Ghana Kenya Mozambique Nigeria Tanzania Tunisia Zambia

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060

Mill

ion

Ton

s


Agriculture

Land Resources (Ha millions)

Country Area Agricultural Land% of Land Used for

Agriculture

Angola 124.7 57.7 46.3 %

Egypt 100.1 3.7 3.7 %

Ghana 23.9 15.9 66.7 %

Kenya 58.0 27.5 47.3 %

Mozambique 79.9 49.4 61.8 %

Nigeria 92.4 36.0 82.5 %

Tanzania 94.7 37.3 39.4 %

Tunisia 16.4 10.1 61.6 %

Zambia 23.4 75.3 31.1 %




Public Expenditure on Agricultural R&D, 2008 (million 2005 PPP $)

Zambia Mozambique Tunisia* Tanzania Ghana Kenya Nigeria0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

818

5977

95

172

404

* 2001 data used for Tunisia (latest available data)



Public Expenditure on Agricultural R&D per capita, 2008 (2005 PPP $)

Zambia Mozambique Tunisia* Tanzania Ghana Kenya Nigeria0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

0.640.86

6.03

2.16

4.05

4.42

1.44

* 2001 data used for Tunisia (latest available data)

Consumption


Consumption

Egyptian Main Fruit Consumption in the Face of Rapid Economic Growth

Dates43%

Oranges, Mandarines21%

Fruits, Other14%

Grapes11%

Bananas7%

Lemons, Limes4%

Apples1%

1961

Oranges, Mandarines

25%

Fruits, Other20%

Dates14%

Grapes13%

Bananas12%

Lemons, Limes

9%

Apples6%

2009


Consumption

Egyptian Main Fruit Consumption in the Face of Rapid Economic Growth

Dates43%


Fruits, Other14%

Grapes11%

Bananas7%

Lemons, Limes4%

Apples1%

1961

Oranges, Mandarines

25%

Fruits, Other20%

Dates14%

Grapes13%

Bananas12%

Lemons, Limes

9%

Apples6%

2009

1960

1962

1964

1966

1968

1970

1972

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

0

3

6

9

12

15

18

21

Annual Consumption of Dates, 1961-2009

Total Con-sumption

per capita Consumption

Tota

l C

onsum

pti

on (

thousand t

onnes)

per

capit

a C

onsum

pti

on (

t per

pers

on)

Source: FAO, Food Balances

© Western Cape Government 2012 | 45

Consumption

Starchy Root Consumption, 2009: Country Comparison

Mozam-bique

Potatoes87%

Sweet Potatoes10%

Roots, Other3%

Eg

yp

t

Cassava85%

Sweet Potatoes

13%

Potatoes2%

Roots, Other0%

Mo

za

mb

iqu

e

Sweet Potatoes

44%

Cassava42%

Potatoes13%

Roots, Other1% Yams

0%

Ke

nya

Cassava52%

Yams35%

Roots, Other12%

Sweet Potatoes1%

Potatoes0%

Gh

an

a


Consumption

Fruit Consumption, 2009: Country Comparison

Mozam-bique

Dates25%

Oranges, Mandarines

20%Fruits, Other

14%

Grapes13%

Bananas12%

Lemons, Limes9%

Apples6%

Citrus, Other0%

Grapefruit0%

Pineapples0%

Eg

yp

t

Citrus, Other34%

Plantains31%

Fruits, Other25%

Pineapples9%


Apples0%

Dates0%

Grapes0%

Nig

eri

a

Plantains81%

Oranges, Mandarines

12%

Fruits, Other4%

Pineapples1%

Bananas1%

Lemons, Limes1%

Apples0%

Citrus, Other0%

Grapefruit0%

Grapes0%

Gh

an

a

Bananas67%

Citrus, Other17%

Fruits, Other8%

Pineapples7%

Apples1%

Grapes0%Oranges, Mandarines

0%

An

gola


Consumption

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Water


Water

Annual Water Withdrawal (billion m³)

Renewable Water

Resources

Total Water Withdrawals

% Water Resources Being

Withdrawn

Angola 148 0.7 0.5 %

Egypt 57 68.3 119.2 %

Ghana 53 1.0 1.9 %

Kenya 31 2.7 8.9 %

Mozambique 217 0.9 0.4 %

Nigeria 286 13.1 4.6 %

Tanzania 96 5.2 5.4 %

Tunisia 5 2.9 62.0 %

Zambia 105 1.6 1.5 %


Water


Renewable Water

Resources



Withdrawn

Angola 148 0.7 0.5 %

Egypt 57 68.3 119.2 %

Ghana 53 1.0 1.9 %

Kenya 31 2.7 8.9 %


Nigeria 286 13.1 4.6 %

Tanzania 96 5.2 5.4 %

Tunisia 5 2.9 62.0 %

Zambia 105 1.6 1.5 %


Water


Renewable Water

Resources



Withdrawn

Angola 148 0.7 0.5 %

Egypt 57 68.3 119.2 %

Ghana 53 1.0 1.9 %

Kenya 31 2.7 8.9 %


Nigeria 286 13.1 4.6 %

Tanzania 96 5.2 5.4 %

Tunisia 5 2.9 62.0 %

Zambia 105 1.6 1.5 %


Water


Renewable Water

Resources



Withdrawn

Angola 148 0.7 0.5 %

Egypt 57 68.3 119.2 %

Ghana 53 1.0 1.9 %

Kenya 31 2.7 8.9 %


Nigeria 286 13.1 4.6 %

Tanzania 96 5.2 5.4 %

Tunisia 5 2.9 62.0 %

Zambia 105 1.6 1.5 %


Water

Irrigation Water Use (thousand Ha)

Irrigation Potential

Area Equipped for Irrigation

Area Equipped as % of

Potential

Angola 3 700 86 2.3 %

Egypt 44 200 3 422 7.7 %

Ghana 1 900 31 1.6 %

Kenya 539 103 19.2 %

Mozambique 3 072 118 3.8 %

Nigeria 2 331 293 12.6 %

Tanzania 2 132 184 8.6 %

Tunisia 560 397 62.0 %

Zambia 523 156 29.8 %

Concluding Remarks…


Concluding Remarks…

African future is very promising

Significant barriers which need to be considered

Can be utilised to gain competitive advantage

No one country is better in every aspect, each has its pros and cons

Early bird catches the worm

Thank you


Work Available for Download…

http://www.elsenburg.com/economics/africaagenda.html

Email:

[email protected]

[email protected]



mailto:[email protected]




Country Analysis Part 2 ElsenburgA.G. Partridge THE AFRICA AGENDA 06 November 2013.

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