Council of Graduate Schools PhD Completion Project: Preliminary Data Analysis Helen Frasier, Program Manager, Best Practices Heath Brown, Director of Research.

July 13, 2005Council of Graduate Schools

PhD Completion Project:Preliminary Data Analysis

Helen Frasier, Program Manager, Best Practices Heath Brown, Director of Research and Policy Analysis

CGS Summer Technical WorkshopJuly 13, 2005Santa Fe, NM

July 13, 2005 Ph.D. Completion & Attrition: Preliminary Data Analysis

2

PhD Completion & Attrition

I. The CGS Database:Data Tools and Templates

& Demographic Characteristics


3

Data Tools and Templates

1. Completion Template

2. Attrition Template

3. Aggregate Demographic Completion Template (race/ethnicity, gender, citizenship)

4. Exit Survey Template

5. Pre-Project Assessment Survey


4

Completion Templates10-year and 7-year cohorts

Entering student

academic year cohort*

Number of entering doctoral students

Number of students who left program

after receving master's degree

Number of students

admitted to PhD

candidacy**

3 years

[ ≤ 3Years ]

4 years

[ > 3 ≤ 4 Years ]

5 years

[ > 4 ≤ 5 Years ]

6 years

[ > 5 ≤ 6 Years ]

7 years

[ > 6 ≤ 7 Years ]

8 years

[ > 7 ≤ 8 Years ]

9 years

[ > 8 ≤ 9 Years ]

10 years

[ > 9 ≤ 10 Years ]

1992-93

1993-94

1994-95

1995-96

1996-97

1997-98

1998-99

1999-2000

2000-01

2001-02

2002-03

2003-04

Totals

Of those admitted to PhD candidacy**:

Number who completed within given number of years after enrolling

Number who are still

enrolled after 10 years


5

Attrition Templates

After Enrollment

CohortCohort

Size

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92-93

93-94

94-95

95-96

96-97

97-98

98-99

99-00

00-01

01-02

02-03

03-04

Year 1 [ ≤ 1 Year ] Year 2 [ > 1 ≤ 2 Years ] Year 3 [ > 2 ≤ 3 ] Year 4 [ > 3 ≤ 4 ] Year 5 [ > 4 ≤ 5 ]


6

Data Tools and Templates

1. Completion Template

2. Attrition Template

3. Aggregate Demographic Completion Template (race/ethnicity, gender, citizenship)

4. Exit Survey Template

5. Pre-Project Assessment Survey


7

10+ Programs

English (19) Mathematics (19) Physics (19) Chemistry (17) Psychology (17) Computer Sciences (16) History (16) Biology (12) Sociology (12) Political Science (10)


8

Entering Ph.D. Students by Broad Field1992 to 2003 Cohorts

Life Sciences15%

Phys Sci/ Math25%

Social Sciences21%

Humanities15%

Engineering24%


9

Entering Ph.D. Students by Race/Ethnicity and Citizenship1992 to 2003 Cohorts

Other, 10%

White, 40%

International, 41%

Black, 3%

AmIndian-AKNative, <1%

Hispanic, 2%

Asian American, 4%


10

Entering Ph.D. Students by Race/Ethnicity and Citizenship (SEM Fields vs. Social Sciences/Humanities)

Sciences, Engineering, and Mathematics (SEM)

White32%

Other10%

International51%

Hispanic1%

Black2%

AmIndian-AKNative<1%

Asian4%

Social Sciences and Humanities

White53%

Other10%

International26%

Hispanic3%

Black4%

Asian3%

AmIndian-AKNative1%


11

PhD Completion & Attrition

II. Preliminary Data

Trends


12

Candidacy

69.18% (193)—Default Definition “Successful completion of coursework and qualifying

examinations” 11.83% (33)—Definition “A”

“Successful completion of preliminary examinations and/or defense of the dissertation prospectus”

0.36% (1)—Definition “B” “Award of the master's degree signifies admission to doctoral

candidacy” 9.68% (27)—Definition “C”

Candidacy is not defined or granted by the institution 5.38% (15)—Definition “D”

Other


13

Master’s Requirements& Distinctions

65% (180)—Do not require a master’s 18% (49)—Require a master’s degree 18% (50)—Did not specify

4% (10)—Do not distinguish between those seeking a master's and those seeking a Ph.D.


14

Enrollment Distinctions

67% (186)—Have a continuous enrollment policy 88% (164)—Effective for all students 11% (21)—Effective for candidates <1% (1)—Did not indicate

22% (60)—Do not have a continuous enrollment policy

12% (33)—Did not specify


15

Cumulative 10-year Doctoral Completion Ratesfrom Original Cohorts by Broad Field

65.79%

46.54%

60.23%

54.65%

52.54%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Year 8 Year 9 Year 10

Completion Year

Pe

rce

nt

Co

mp

lete

of

Ori

gin

al

Co

ho

rt

Engineering, n=94 cohorts Humanities, n=148 Life Sciences, n=134 PhysSci/Math, n=195 Social Sciences, n=154


16

Range of 10-year Ph.D. Completion Rates by Broad Field

23.33% 60.19%

26.88%

59.65%35.42%

62.83%

37.50% 77.38%

54.79% 84.52%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Percent Complete

Humanities

Social Sciences

PhySci/Math

Life Sciences

Engineering

Bro

ad F

ield

Median = 65.03%

Median = 57.87%

Median = 50.74%

Median = 55.45%

Median = 48.77%


17

Do Demographics Matter?


18

10-year Cumulative & Annual Ph.D. Completion by Racial/Ethnicity, All Fields from Cohort

59.56%

56.23%

55.81%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%


Completion Year

Per

cen

t C

om

ple

te o

f O

rig

inal

Co

ho

rt

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Annual Comp - Whites Annual Comp - All Minorities Annual Comp - UnderRep Minorities

Cumulative Comp - Whites Cumulative Comp - All Minorities Cumulative Comp - UnderRep Minorities


19

All Fields 10-year Cumulative Ph.D. Completion Original Cohort and Candidates by Sex

58.06%

55.74%

86.22%

83.31%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%


Completion Year

Per

cent

Com

plet

e

Males, Cohort, n=261 Females, Cohort, n=253 Males, Candidates, n=247 Females, Candidates, n=231


20

10-year Cumulative & Annual Ph.D. Completion U.S. vs. International, All Fields

59%

68%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%


Completion Year

Pe

rce

nt

Co

mp

lete

of

Ori

gin

al C

oh

ort

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

US Annual Completion Int'l Annual Completion US Cumulative Completion Int'l Cumulative Completion


21

Does Program Size Matter?


22

10-year Ph.D. Completion Ratesby Program Cohort Size

Cohorts: 64.97% (471) Small 26.48% (192) Medium 8.55% (62) Large

Students: 35.96% (3822) Small 37.95% (4033) Medium 26.09% (2773) Large

54.9

7%

54.4

5% 58.8

9%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%


Completion Year

Per

cen

t C

om

ple

te o

f O

rig

inal

Co

ho

rt

Small Cohort Medium Cohort Large Cohort


23

Do Early and Late Attrition

Differ By Field Area?


24

Early Ph.D. Attrition among 10-year CohortsAnnual Rates by Broad Field

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5

Attrition Year

Pe

rce

nt

Engineering, n=66 Humanities, n=114 Life Sciences, n=95 PhysSci/Math, n=133 Social Sciences, n=104


25

Late Ph.D. Attrition among 10-year CohortsAnnual Rates by Broad Field

0%

2%

4%

6%

Year 6 Year 7 Year 8 Year 9 Year 10

Attrition Year

Pe

rce

nt

Engineering, n=66 Humanities, n=114 Life Sciences, n=95 PhysSci/Math, n=133 Social Sciences, n=104


26

Do Completion Rates

Change Over Time?


27

Life Sciences 7-yr vs. 10-yr Cumulative Completionfrom Original Cohort and Candidacy

59.31%

47.59%

85.91%

67.15%

50.09%

71.62%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%


Completion Year

Per

cent

Com

plet

e

10-yr Cohort, n=101 10-yr Candidates, n=92 7-yr Cohort, n=218 7-yr Candidates, n=199


28

III. Do Program and Policy

Interventions Matter?

Council of Graduate Schools PhD Completion Project: Preliminary Data Analysis Helen Frasier, Program Manager, Best Practices Heath Brown, Director of Research.

Documents

phd completion attrition

completion templates

preliminary data trends

attrition templates

data tools

nm slide

exit survey template

masters degree