United States Department of Agriculture Cotton: Foreign Agricultural Service World Markets and Trade Circular Series FC-04-05 April 2005 Thousand 480-lb Bales Turkey Cotton Imports Hit Record, U.S. Share Slips 7,000 6,500 6,000 5,500 5,000 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 Total Imports United States Greece R.O.W Mill Use MY 00/01 MY 01/02 MY 02/03 MY 03/04 MY 04/05p Turkey’s cotton imports and mill use are expected to soar to record levels in MY 2004/05. Meanwhile, the United States, Turkey’s primary cotton supplier, is losing market share despite increasing exports. For 2004/05, Turkey’s imports are forecast at 3.15 million 480-lb bales, up 33 percent from 2003/04; local consumption is forecast at 6.75 million bales, up 9 percent. Turkey is the world’s second largest cotton importer and among the top three markets for U.S. exports. As of March 31, more than 1.2 million bales of U.S. cotton were exported to Turkey, up 400,000 bales from 2003/04. Although U.S. cotton exports to Turkey have increased in 2004/05 as compared to last year, U.S. market share has faded from 54 percent to 49 percent through January. Greece has picked up the majority of Turkey’s increase in imports, driving its market share up from 16 percent to 34 percent over the same period. As a result, U.S. exports are not expected to eclipse 60 percent market share for the season as seen in the previous two seasons. MY 2004/05 appears to be shaping up similar to 2001/02 when the U.S. held 53 percent market share and Greece held 27 percent. For the past three seasons, U.S. exports to Turkey have been stable despite variations is Turkey’s total imports. Increased Turkish imports are mostly due to government action to stop the in-flow of low-priced yarn and fabric from the FSU and Asian countries. Tax incentives for processing imported yarns and re-exporting the final products are no longer offered to Turkish mills. Lower yarn imports have led to increased domestic cotton spinning. Additionally, a strong lira and new protocol expanding a preferential customs union to the ten newest members of the EU will continue to support local mill use and the country’s dependence on cotton imports. Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board
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United States Department of Agriculture Cotton: Foreign Agricultural Service World Markets and Trade Circular Series FC-04-05 April 2005
Tho
usan
d 48
0-lb
Bal
es
Turkey Cotton Imports Hit Record, U.S. Share Slips 7,000
6,500
6,000
5,500
5,000
4,500
4,000
3,500
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
Total Imports United States Greece R.O.W Mill Use
MY 00/01 MY 01/02 MY 02/03 MY 03/04 MY 04/05p
Turkey’s cotton imports and mill use are expected to soar to record levels in MY 2004/05. Meanwhile, the United States, Turkey’s primary cotton supplier, is losing market share despite increasing exports. For 2004/05, Turkey’s imports are forecast at 3.15 million 480-lb bales, up 33 percent from 2003/04; local consumption is forecast at 6.75 million bales, up 9 percent.
Turkey is the world’s second largest cotton importer and among the top three markets for U.S. exports. As of March 31, more than 1.2 million bales of U.S. cotton were exported to Turkey, up 400,000 bales from 2003/04. Although U.S. cotton exports to Turkey have increased in 2004/05 as compared to last year, U.S. market share has faded from 54 percent to 49 percent through January. Greece has picked up the majority of Turkey’s increase in imports, driving its market share up from 16 percent to 34 percent over the same period. As a result, U.S. exports are not expected to eclipse 60 percent market share for the season as seen in the previous two seasons. MY 2004/05 appears to be shaping up similar to 2001/02 when the U.S. held 53 percent market share and Greece held 27 percent. For the past three seasons, U.S. exports to Turkey have been stable despite variations is Turkey’s total imports.
Increased Turkish imports are mostly due to government action to stop the in-flow of low-priced yarn and fabric from the FSU and Asian countries. Tax incentives for processing imported yarns and re-exporting the final products are no longer offered to Turkish mills. Lower yarn imports have led to increased domestic cotton spinning. Additionally, a strong lira and new protocol expanding a preferential customs union to the ten newest members of the EU will continue to support local mill use and the country’s dependence on cotton imports.
Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board
Further Information Contact:
U.S. Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service
Cotton, Oilseeds, Tobacco, and Seeds Division Stop 1051
J. Lawrence Blum, Director Patrick Packnett, Deputy Director for Analysis
James Johnson, Acting Group Leader, Cotton and Tobacco
Principle Contributors
James Johnson.......................................................................................Senior Cotton Analyst [email protected]
Teresa McKeivier.............................................Chairperson for Foreign Area and Production [email protected]
Hooshang Fazel..............................Analyst, Middle East, Sub-continent, and Southeast Asia [email protected]
Keith Scearce ........................................................ Analyst, Europe and Western [email protected]
Morgan Haas ........................................................................ Analyst, Africa and Central Asia [email protected]
This circular, and other information, can be found at the FAS/COTS Division Internet site: http://www.fas.usda.gov/cots/cotton.html
Page 2 Apr. 2005
List of Tables
Summary of Changes 2000/01-2004/05 (1,000 480-lb. bales) ................................................... 4
Table 1. World Cotton Supply, Use and Trade 1999/00-2004/05 (1,000 metric tons) ...... 7Table 2. World Cotton Supply, Use and Trade 1999/00-2004/05 (1,000 480-lb. bales) ... 8 Table 3. FY 2005 GSM-102 and Supplier Credit Programs .............................................. 9Table 4. Area, Yield, and Production 2003/04-2004/05 .................................................. 10Table 5. Cotton Supply & Distribution by Country 2004/05 (1,000 480-lb. bales)......... 11Table 5-A. Cotton Supply & Distribution by Country 2004/05 (1,000 metric tons)............ 13Table 6. Cotton Supply & Distribution by Country 2003/04 (1,000 480-lb. bales)......... 15Table 6-A. Cotton Supply & Distribution by Country 2003/04 (1,000 metric tons)............ 17Table 7. U.S. Export Sales Summary ............................................................................... 19Table 8. Northern European Cotton and Adjusted World Price....................................... 20Table 9. World Cotton Production, Yield, Supply, and Utilization ................................. 21 Table 10. United States Cotton Production, Yield, Supply, and Utilization ...................... 22 Table 11. Foreign Cotton Production, Yield, Supply, and Utilization ............................... 23
Page 3 Apr. 2005
Summary of Changes in Estimates and Forecasts from Last Month (1,000 480 lb Bales and 1,000 Ha)
Marketing Year Area
Harvested Yield Kg/Ha
Beginning Stocks Production Imports Use Loss Exports
Total for all Commodities Cotton Reg 1/, 2/ Cotton Reg 1/, 3/
Announced Allocation
Application received Balance YTD YTD Total
Central America (180) 4/ 55.00 21.73 33.27 - 0.60 0.74 India (180) 25.00 0.25 24.75 - - -Mexico (180) 600.00 174.43 425.57 4.20 13.00 14.21 Middle East Region (180) 5/ 50.00 1.29 48.71 0.61 - -South America Region (180) 6/ 20.00 6.15 13.85 2.55 - 2.10 Turkey (180) 15.00 0.49 14.51 - - -Caribbean Region (180) 7/ 10.00 0.21 9.79 - - -Other 637.00 192.96 444.04 - - -TOTAL 1,412.00 397.51 1,014.49 7.36 13.60 17.05
1/ Includes Cotton, Cotton Linters, Cotton Yarn, and Cotton Fabric.2/ Total Cotton Registrations includes registrations and/or cancellations from Oct 1, 2004.3/ Total Cotton Registrations includes registrations and/or cancellations from Oct 1, 2003.4/ Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, and Panama5/ Bahrain, Egypt, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates6/ Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Peru, and Venezuela
7/ Barbados, British Virgin Islands, Cayman Islands, Dominican Republic, Grenada, Haiti, Jamaica, Netherlands Antilles, St. Lucia, St. Vincent and the Grenadines and Trinidad and Tobago NOTES: Registrations current as of March 4, 2005 Mar-05
Page 9 Apr. 2005
Table 4 Cotton Area, Yield, and Production
World and Selected Countries and Regions Area (1,000 Ha) Yield (KG/Ha) Production (1,000 Bales)
World Total 35,617 119,218 33,590 188,425 107,054 49 33,488 47,834
* Loss for countries outside the Unitd States reflects cotton lost or destroyed while in the marketing channel. For the United States, loss reflects the difference between stocks as reported by the Bureau of the Census and implict stocks based on supply plus total use. A negative "loss" is a positive number.
Page 12 Apr. 2005
Table 5A
2004/2005Cotton Production, Supply and Distribution by Country
1,000 Metric Tons MY
Afghanistan Beg. Stocks Use Total Supply Imports Production
World Total 7,755 25,957 7,313 41,025 23,309 11 7,291 10,415
* Loss for countries outside the Unitd States reflects cotton lost or destroyed while in the marketing channel. For the United States, loss reflects the difference between stocks as reported by the Bureau of the Census and implict stocks based on supply plus total use. A negative "loss" is a positive number.
Page 14 Apr. 2005
Table 6
2003/2004Cotton Production, Supply and Distribution by Country
(1,000 480 lb Bales) MY
Afghanistan Beg. Stocks Use Total Supply Imports Production
World Total 38,125 95,085 33,959 167,169 98,563 -64 33,053 35,617
* Loss for countries outside the Unitd States reflects cotton lost or destroyed while in the marketing channel. For the United States, loss reflects the difference between stocks as reported by the Bureau of the Census and implict stocks based on supply plus total use. A negative "loss" is a positive number.
Page 16 Apr. 2005
Table 6A
2003/2004Cotton Production, Supply and Distribution by Country
1,000 Metric Tons MY
Afghanistan Beg. Stocks Use Total Supply Imports Production
World Total 8,301 20,703 7,394 36,397 21,460 -14 7,197 7,755
* Loss for countries outside the Unitd States reflects cotton lost or destroyed while in the marketing channel. For the United States, loss reflects the difference between stocks as reported by the Bureau of the Census and implict stocks based on supply plus total use. A negative "loss" is a positive number.
Page 18 Apr. 2005
Table 7: U.S. Export Sales Summary
Monthly Net Sales (1,000 Running Bales)
Current Marketing Year 10-Mar-05 through 31-Mar-05
---------Upland---------Pima All Upland >1-1/16" 1" to 1-1/16" < 1"
European Union - 25 3.9 1.3 1.3 0.0 0.0 Other Europe 5.2 49.3 31.5 17.8 0.0 Eastern Europe 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Former Soviet Union - 12 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Japan 2.0 7.2 6.6 0.6 0.0 Taiwan 0.2 61.7 53.6 8.0 0.0 China 6.9 338.6 296.4 42.2 0.0 Korea, Republic of 0.0 18.5 13.7 4.8 0.0 India 2.5 1.9 1.9 0.0 0.0 Other Asian and Oceania 11.7 114.8 88.1 26.7 0.0 Africa 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Western Hemisphere 0.7 33.9 22.7 11.2 0.0 Unknown -0.6 -6.0 -6.0 0.0 0.0
3-week TOTAL 32.5 621.1 509.9 111.3 0.0 Weekly Net Sales Average 10.8 207.0 170.0 37.1 0.0
Previous Marketing Year04-Mar-04 through 01-Apr-04
---------Upland---------Pima All Upland >1-1/16" 1" to 1-1/16" < 1"
4-week TOTAL 12.5 987.4 808.7 170.4 8.2 Weekly Net Sales Average 3.1 246.9 202.2 42.6 2.1
Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. Source: USDA/FAS Apr-05
All Cotton Totals, Marketing Year-YTD (1000 Running Bales)
Current MY as of Previous MY as of 31-Mar-05 01-Apr-04
1. The Cotlook Northern Europe quote is the average of the five lowest quotes of the following descriptions (all 1-3/32"): Memphis Terr.; Calif. Ariz; Mexico; Central America; Paraguayan; Turkish; Uzbeki; Pakistani 1503; Indian H-4; Chinese Type 329; West African; Tanzanian; Greek; Syrian; and Australian. Prior to 1 August 2004, was refered to as the "A-Index"
2. Reflects incorporation of forward shipment quotations but does not include the Secretary's discretionary adjustments Averages for August 1998 and forward reflect 1998/99 quotations; others are 1997/98 quotations SOURCE: Cotlook, Ltd. United Kingdom
Page 20 Apr. 2005
Table 9 World Cotton Production, Yield, Supply and Utilization
(1,000 480-Lb. Bales, 1961/1962-2004/2005) Marketing 1,000 Yield Begining Production Imports Total Consu Loss Exports Ending
Note: Beginning with 1970/71, world and foreign import and export totals were expanded to include trade among the 12 countries of the former Soviet Union and the 3 Baltic states.
Page 21 Apr. 2005
Table 10 United StatesCotton Production, Yield, Supply and Utilization
(1,000 480-Lb. Bales, 1961/1962-2004/2005) Marketing 1,000 Yield Begining Production Imports Total Consu Loss Exports Ending
Note: Beginning with 1970/71, world and foreign import and export totals were expanded to include trade among the 12 countries of the former Soviet Union and the 3 Baltic states.
Page 22 Apr. 2005
Table 11 Foreign Cotton Production, Yield, Supply and Utilization
(1,000 480-Lb. Bales, 1961/1962-2004/2005) Marketing 1,000 Yield Begining Production Imports Total Consu Loss Exports Ending
Note: Beginning with 1970/71, world and foreign import and export totals were expanded to include trade among the 12 countries of the former Soviet Union and the 3 Baltic states.