COSYSMO Application At BAE Systems

©2006 BAE Systems.

COSYSMO Application At BAE Systems

Gan Wang

COSYSMO Workshop23rd International Forum on COCOMO and Systems/Software Cost Modeling and ICM WorkshopUSC Campus, Los Angeles, CA Oct. 29 & 30, 2008

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COSYSMO Implementation at BAE Systems

• Developed System Engineering Estimation Model and Process (SEEMaP)

– Estimating end-to-end, system engineering and integration effort in a system development program

– Company-wide, common estimating tool deployed across major sites, lines of business (LoBs) and operating groups (OGs), including New Hampshire, San Diego, New Jersey, New York…

• Desktop tool, calibrated with historical program data across LoBs

– With organization and product line-specific calibrations

• Applied to – ROM estimates

– Engineering bid & proposal

– Trade studies

SEEMaP Workbook:Encapsulating Tool and Process

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Early Results Excellent

• Deployed in 2007-2008 to E&IS OG– Applied to: ROM, bid & proposal, risk analysis

– Mandated use by several organizations

• Outstanding correlation achieved between estimate and actual in calibrations

SEEMaP (COSYSMO) Calibration

• Early experience shows excellent result:

– Variance with other methods (bottom-up): 2–25%

– Effort to create estimate: 2-8 hours

– Cost saving and cycle time reduction: 85–95%

– (Bottom-up may take up to weeks)

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Quantitative Risk Analysis

• COSYSMO provides single-point estimates– With fixed driver counts and classification

• Integrating Crystal Ball quantifies the uncertainty and provides quantitative risk analysis through Monte Carlo Simulation

– Crystal Ball will provide a quantified output range of the various scenarios, with a probability of occurrence

– A sensitivity analysis provides insight into which inputs most effect the outcome

• Now it is possible to offer (true) 50/50, 80/20, 20/80 risk positions– Not just to claim them

Degrees of Reuse and Difficulties

Sizing Parameters

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Monte Carlo Simulation Generates an Estimate Distribution

Monte Carlo Simulation

Input Distribution

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In the Works

• Total Engineering Estimation Model and Process (TEEMaP)– Extending SEEMaP & COSYSMO capabilities to total engineering– Estimating the total, end-to-end engineering effort in development a system– Deployment in 2009

• Apply to company LCM Framework

Prepare Bid/No Bid Information

Prepare Proposal

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Initial Design

Des

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Inte

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System Qualification

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In-F

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Disposal

Phase Reviews

1B 2A 2B 2C 3A 3B 4 5 6 7

Milestone Reviews

TEEMaP

TEEMaPTEEMaP

SRRSDR/PDR

CDRTRR

PRR

ROM to determine Cost & Risk positions relative to PTW Develop cost

targets & validation of total/functional engineering bids

Validate contract pricing & quick trades for scope negotiation

TEEMaPDevelop engineering baselines and milestone reviews & ETCs

TEEMaP

Evaluate technology insertion, upgrades, & new opportunities

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Gan Wang

[email protected]

703-668-4259

Questions and Comments