"Cost/Benefit of Shares IPO" oleh @ProfRoySembel at IPMI Kalibata

Prof. Roy Sembel, PhD

LinkedIn: Prof. Roy Sembel

Twitter/Instagram: @ProfRoySembel Facebook/LinkedIn: Prof. Roy Sembel

e-Newsletter: [email protected]

Cost/Benefit of Shares IPO

2

AGENDA

• Opening / Introduction

• IPO: What / Why / How

• Empirical Evidence

• Discussion

• Concluding remark

3

4

PROF. ROY SEMBEL, IR, MBA, PHDEDUCATION

1982-86 IPB, Bogor. FMIPA. Major: Statistics, Minor: Economics; Ir., Best Graduate, Cum Laude

1988-90 Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University Rotterdam and The Wharton School,

University of Pennsylvania Philadelphia

MBA, Finance/Banking, Best Graduate, With Honours

1991-96 J.M.Katz Graduate School of Business, University of Pittsburgh; Major: Corporate Finance;

Minor: Econometrics; PhD; Dissertation: “IPO Anomalies, Truncated Excess Supply, and

Heterogeneous Information”

1997-98 Economics & Finance Staff, Office of Dr (HC) Radius Prawiro, Jakarta.

2000 ACUCA Lecturer: Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong, The Philippines, Thailand

1987-Now Lecturer, Faculty of Economics, Christian University of Indonesia, Jakarta.

1997-2001 Visiting Lecturer at IPMI, Institut PPM, Magister Management Program University of

Indonesia, University of Sam Ratulangi, Universitas Lampung, Magister Akuntansi & Post Graduate

(S2 & S3) Program Faculty of Economics University of Indonesia, Pelita Harapan University. Subjects:

Investment Analysis and Risk Management, Corporate Finance, International Finance, Derivative

Securities, Managerial Economics, Banks & Capital Markets, eBusiness Management.

WORK EXPERIENCE

1984-87 Teaching Assistant, FMIPA, IPB.

1990 Internship; ABN Bank, European Treasury Department, Amsterdam.

1990-91 Corporate Banking; ABN AMRO Bank Amsterdam

1994-96 Teaching Assistant, University of Pittsburgh.

1994-2000 Co-founder Indonesian Physics Olympic Team /TOFI Foundation & Indonesian

Computer Olympic Foundation TOKI

5

1998-2001 McKinsey & Co, Jakarta

2001-2006 Direktur Program Magister Manajemen Keuangan Universitas Bina Nusantara,

Co-founder Indonesia Learning Institute (InLIne), Indonesia School of Life (InSchoOL)

2005-2007 Komisaris Independen & Ketua Komite Pemantau Risiko PT Bank Niaga Tbk

2005- Professor in Financial Economics;

Charter member Lembaga Komisaris dan Direksi Indonesia

2006-2008 Academic Expert Advisor, Universitas Ciputra Surabaya,

2006- Owner/Komisaris (PT. Mobee Indonesia, PT MARS Indonesia)

2007- Supervisory Committee Asian Bond Fund Indonesia (TCW Bahana/BI),

Ketua Komite Sertifikasi FPSB Indonesia

2007-2008 Pejabat Dekan FE Universitas Multimedia Nusantara (UMN)

Ketua Umum Partai Barisan Nasional (BARNAS)

2008 Board of Advisor UMN

2008-2009 Ketua Dewan Pembina Partai Barisan Nasional (BARNAS)

2008-2010 Chairman CAPITAL PRICE

2009-2010 Dean of Business School and Director of Graduate Program, UPH

2010-2012 Director of Jakarta Futures Exchange

2012- IPMI International Business School; Senior advisor, Vriens & Partners

Independent Commissioner, HITS & MCS International

2014- Chairman of Index Committee, Indeks Investor 33

Advisory Council, PLN Corporate UniversityMISCELLANEOUSSpeaker in many seminars in Indonesia, USA, and Europe. Writer of more than 1000 articles in KONTAN, GATRA, Sinar Harapan, SWA, Bisnis

Indonesia, KOMPAS, Investor, Investor Daily, Warta Ekonomi, Manajemen & Usahawan Indonesia, InfoBank, Jurnal Pasar Modal, Media

Akuntansi, DIA, Bahana, Jurnal Ekonomi UKI, JAKI, JBR, Scripta Economica UPH, Jurnal, Sinergi MMUII, published books, Internet.

6

Pioneer Business School in Indonesia since 1984, courses delivered fully in English with case

study / interactive method of learning

The best internationalized private business school in Indonesia (Rated 3 Palms in 2014)

(http://www.eduniversal-ranking.com/business-school-university-ranking-in-indonesia.html)

The only Indonesian Business School in the top 100 business school in Asia 2015

(http://find-mba.com/most-popular/asia)

Highlights about IPMI International Business School

Asian Management

Conclave2015

7

Relevant vs Rigor ?

IPMI IBS: Rigor AND Relevant

8

Academic

Rigor

Business Relevance

IPMI IBS

• Case Study, English

• Power Talk

• GFP, CIP

• Business Simulation

• Investment Simulation

• iReCons ; LRC

• Global and Industry networks

• Alumni networks

• Balanced Faculty members

High

High

Low

Low

Power Talk and Seminar

9

FACULTY MEMBERS: Academic Rigor + Business Relevance

OUTSTANDAING ALUMNI NETWORK

TESTIMONIAL E-MBA ALUMNI

EDUNIVERSAL RANKING

IPMI is the only Indonesian private business school

in 3 Palmes level

15

DEAN’S MESSAGE FOR STAKEHOLDERS OF IPMI IBS: 7 H’s

• 2B Be Hopeful and Helpful

• 3U Use Heart, Head, and Hand

• 2S Stay Hungry and Humorous

Prof Roy Sembel16

KOMUNIKASI:

• E-mail: [email protected]

• Twitter / Instagram: @ProfRoySembel

• LinkedIn: Prof. Roy Sembel

• Facebook: Prof. Roy Sembel

• E-Newsletter: [email protected]

AGENDA




• Discussion


17

IPO = Initial Public Offering

• Penawaran sekuritas kepada masyarakat

• Dilakukan oleh perusahaan (Emiten) untuk

menjual sekuritas / efek (biasanya saham)

kepada masyarakat

• Berdasarkan tata cara yang diatur oleh UU

Pasar Modal dan Peraturan

Pelaksanaannya diawasi oleh OJK

• Biasanya dilanjutkan dengan pencatatan

sekuritas untuk diperdagangkan di bursa

efek (BEI)

19

FOUR CORNER STONES OF

CORPORATE FINANCE?McKinsey.com

1. Core of Value Principle

2. Conservation of Value Principle

3. Expectation Treadmill

4. Best owner Principle

When considering IPO, remember those principles

Why Do Companies Go Public?

• Fund Growth Plans

• Currency for M&A

• Recapitalization (retire debt)

• Liquidity

• Employee compensation

• Enhanced Image

– Landlords

– Creditors/Suppliers

– Recruiting/Retention

Penawaran Umum Perdana

Strategis Keuangan

Tujuan non-finansial

Mengoptimalkan kegiatan usaha

Antisipasi munculnya peraturan yang lebih ketat

Struktur Terbaik

Tujuan finansial

Kondisi pasar yang baik/timing

Harga optimal

Struktur TerbaikMeningkatkan nilai pemegang saham

Penghematan pajak

Kesesuaian dengan peraturan

Bapepam & peraturan lainnya

Dilusi

Strategic Aspects of Public Offering

22

IPO Process

• Underwriter Selection

• Registration

• Marketing and Book Building

• Pricing

• After Market Activities

24

Before IPO During IPO After IPO

STAGES OF IPO

Menentukan Tujuan

Penilaian Kesiapan (Due

Dilligence)

Corporate Plan

Restrukturisasi

Persiapan Data Keuangan

Seleksi Profesi Penunjang

Penyusunan Jadwal

Familiarisasi Peraturan Pasar

Modal

RUPS

Penyusunan Pernyataan

Pendaftaran:

Proyeksi Keuangan

Laporan Keuangan

Comfort Letter

Legal Opinion

Prospektus

Agreements

Penyerahan Pernyataan

Pendaftaran dan Pemasaran

Publik Ekspose

Pernyataan Pendaftaran

Dinyatakan Efektif

Ketaatan Pelaporan

Keterbukaan dan Pemerataan

Informasi

Menghindari Benturan

Kepentingan

Ketaatan Penggunaan Dana

dan Pernyataan Lainnya

Dalam Prospektus

Membentuk Layanan Kepada

Investor dan Pihak Terkait

25

FINANCIAL MARKETS AND INSTITUTIONS ARE KEY

TO REALIZE VALUE

2. GO VS NO GO

Rewarding winners

1. SCREENING IDEAS

Separating winners and

losers

3. FUNDING OR

SELLING OUT

4. BUSINESS RESULTS

26

Kerangka Kerja Dasar

Pemahaman

Perusahaan

Faktor Internal

Faktor Eksternal

Analisa SWOTAlternatif

Restrukturisasi

Memilih alternatif

terbaik

Penilaian Saham

Perusahaan

Atas dasar:

•Efisiensi Biaya

•Penghematan pajak

•Penyederhanaan proses

•Memaksimalkan nilai pemegang saham

•Kesesuaian dengan Peraturan

•Daya tarik untuk penanam modal

27

IPO

Valuation

Issue/Risk Analysis vs IPO valuation

Economic & Monetary

Condition

The Indonesian

Banking Industry

Capital Market

Sentiment

Government

Regulation

Legal aspects

Financial

Accounting Process

Accuracy &

Timeliness of F/S

Good Corporate

Governance

Capital Planning

Divestment/Dilution

strategies

Financial Accounting

Process Improvement

Portfolio Asset

Internal and external factors Issue/risk mitigationFinancial and Process

Environment

Information

Technology - MIS

Accounting standard

compliance

Operational - effectiveness

system & procedures

Asset Quality

IPO candidate evaluation:

Company Characteristics

• Growth Prospects

• Predictability of Results

• Management Team

• Historical Track Record – Size;Profitability

• First Mover Advantage

• Sponsorship

29

Analysis of Internal Factors

Visi, Misi, dan Tujuan jangka panjang

Strategi Operasi/Investasi Strategi Permodalan

Pendapatan Pajak Ekuitas

Strategi dan

Kebijaksanaan

Faktor

Pendorong

SDM, Teknologi, Cabang/Unit dan ModalSumber Daya

Kinerja Keuangan

Beban

Analisis Faktor Internal

IPO Evaluation:

Sector/Market Characteristics

• Overall Size

• Growth Rate

• Competitive Dynamics

• Comparable Companies’ Performance

• Institutional Appetite

Analysis of External Factors

Pendatang

baru

Produk pengganti

Pem

beli

Pem

aso

k

• ••

Kompetisi

IPO Evaluation:

Market Conditions

• Backlog

• Cash Inflows to Mutual Funds

• Deals Pricing Below/Within/Above Range

• Withdrawn vs. Completed Offerings

• Market Performance of Recent IPOs

• Stable Economic Climate

IPO Evaluation:

Underwriter

• Research Expertise

• Distribution Capabilities

• Corporate Finance Focus

• Chemistry

• Geography (retail offices)

Pitch Book

• Executive Summary

• Capital Markets Update

• Company Positioning

• Valuation

• Structure and Timing of IPO Process

• Track Record of Investment Bank

• Team Members Commitment

• References

Prospectus• Cover

• Summary

• The Compnay

• Risk Factors

• Use of Proceeds

• Dividend Policy

• Capitalization

• Dilution

• Selected Financial Data

• Management Discussion

• The Business

• Management and Security Holders

• Description of Securities

Registration Statement

• Prospectus

• Exhibits– Underwriting Agreement

– Articles of Incorporation

– Opinion of Company Counsel

– Stock Option Plan(s)

– Employment Agreements

– Registration Rights Agreements

– Material Contracts

– Computation of Earnings per Share

– Other supporting materials

Life As a Public Company

• Reporting– Financial Reports, Press Releases, Conference Calls,

Forward-looking Statements

• Trading Blackouts

• BOD Liability

• Investor Relations

• Secondary Offerings– Additional Cash

– Enhance the Float

– Orderly Exit for Large Holders

AGENDA




• Discussion


38

39

EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE ON IPO

Empirical evidence: Ibbotson (1975): P1 > Po

Instant Profit Overnight

Underpricing? Principal Agent, Winner’s Curse, Signaling, Overreaction

Ritter (1991) Inferior Performance Overtime NOT underpricing

Sembel (1996)

IPO Anomalies Truncated Excess Supply, Heterogeneous Info

Withdrawn IPO (WIPO)

Diskusi:

IPO = Dana Murah ?

Case: IPO GARUDA, KRAKATAU STEEL

40

IPO Initial Return (“Underpricing”)

Instant ProfitIPO Underpricing

0.00%

10.00%

20.00%

30.00%

40.00%

50.00%

60.00%

70.00%

80.00%

19

80

19

81

19

82

19

83

19

84

19

85

19

86

19

87

19

88

19

89

19

90

19

91

19

92

19

93

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

Years

Un

derp

ric

ing

%

So

urc

e: R

itte

r, J

ay R

ial a

nd

We

lch

, Iv

o,

"A R

evie

w o

f IP

O A

ctivity,

Pricin

g a

nd

Allo

ca

tio

ns"

(Fe

bru

ary

20

02

). Y

ale

IC

F W

ork

ing P

ap

er

No. 0

2-0

1.

htt

p:/

/ssrn

.co

m/a

bstr

act=

296

393

41

Long-Run IPO Performance:

Inferior

Year IPOs

Market

Adjusted

Size and Book-to-

Market Adjusted

1980 88.20% 35.50% 17.10%

1981 12.80% -26.20% -7.40%

1982 32.20% -36.50% -48.70%

1983 15.40% -38.70% 2.50%

1984 27.70% -51.30% 3.00%

1985 7.60% -39.50% 7.30%

1986 18.60% -20.40% 14.30%

1987 -1.80% -18.90% 4.50%

1988 55.70% 8.30% 51.30%

1989 51.10% 16.80% 32.50%

1990 12.20% -34.10% -32.40%

1991 31.50% -1.70% 5.80%

1992 34.80% -2.30% -19.40%

1993 44.90% -7.80% -23.90%

1994 74.10% -8.30% 1.00%

1995 24.80% -62.30% -14.10%

1996 25.60% -57.00% 8.60%

1997 67.70% 6.80% 41.00%

1998 27.10% 9.10% 12.20%

1999 -46.20% -32.90% -74.20%

2000 -64.70% -36.40% -42.60%

Average 3-year Buy-and-Hold Return

Periods IPOs

Market

Adjusted

Size and Book-to-

Market Adjusted

1980-1989 20.80% -24.70% 6.90%

1990-1994 44.70% -7.20% -12.70%

1995-1998 36.00% -32.30% 11.60%

1999-2000 -53.80% -34.30% -61.20%

Average 3-year Buy-and-Hold Return

AGENDA




• Discussion


42

43

CASE DISCUSSION

IPO = Dana Murah ?

Buying IPO shares:

Is it a good investment for investors?

AGENDA




• Discussion


44

45

Advantages vs Disadvantages

of IPOAdvantages:

1. Access to capital markets

2. Improved liquidity for shareholders

3. Allow original owners to diversify

4. Monitored by external capital markets

5. Generate information from capital markets

6. Enhance credibility of company

Disadvantages:

1. Expensive out of pocket costs

2. High after IPO costs of dealing with shareholders

3. Competitors get easy access of company’s information

4. Public pressure

IPO

• Instant Profit Overnight

– Underpricing?

– Can retail investors make abnormal profit?

• Inferior Profit Overtime

– When to buy?

• Not cheap fund, but flexible fund for

issuers

47

FREE e-NEWSLETTER

WISDOM, WEB, WEALTH

Kirim e-mail dari e-mail anda ke

[email protected]

Kalau anda jalan-jalan ke Tasikmalaya

Jangan lupa ngemil sambel, tahu dan oncom

Kalau masih ada yang ingin ditanya

Jangan lupa kirim e-mail ke [email protected] / LinkedIn: Prof Roy Sembel

Twitter / Instagram: @ProfRoySembel

Yahoogroup: [email protected]