II III 111111 111111111111111111111111 11111111111111111111111111111 3 1176 00161 4966 /7t..? NASA-CR-165176 19810003445 NASA CR-165176 AIRESEARCH 21-3663 COST/BENEFIT ANALYSIS (PART 2) OF ADVANCED MATERIAL TECHNOLOGY CANDIDATES FOR THE 1980'S by R. E. DENNIS H. F. MAERTINS AIRESEARCH MANUFACTURING COMPANY OF ARIZONA A DIVISION OF THE GARRETT CORPORATION AUGUST 1980 Prepared for National Aeronautics and Space Administration NASA-Lewis Research 1JV Contract NAS3-20073 DEC s ,joQ . 1111111111111 1111 1111111111111111111111111111 1\TQf"\ ") " -. ..... https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=19810003445 2018-07-15T21:50:26+00:00Z
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II III 111111 111111111111111111111111 11111111111111111111111111111
3 1176 00161 4966
_-----!.-N.~ASA Cl?-/~~~ /7t..?
NASA-CR-165176 19810003445
l-----~ NASA CR-165176 AIRESEARCH 21-3663
COST/BENEFIT ANALYSIS (PART 2)
OF ADVANCED MATERIAL TECHNOLOGY CANDIDATES
FOR THE 1980'S
by
R. E. DENNIS H. F. MAERTINS
AIRESEARCH MANUFACTURING COMPANY OF ARIZONA A DIVISION OF THE GARRETT CORPORATION
AIRESEARCH MANUFACTURING COMPANY OF ARIZONA A DIVISION OF" THE GARRETT CORPORATION
111 SOUTH 34TH STREET • POBOX 5217 • PHOENIX ARIZONA 85010
To
TELEPHONE 1602] 267'"3011
December 21 1980
In reply refer to: PCFAU-0556-1202
: NASA-Lewis Research Center 21000 Brookpark Road Cleveland, Ohio 44135
Attention: Ms. S. Boyer Mail Stop 501-11
Subject Contract No. NAS3-20073
Reference: NASA Letter (B. Robinson) dated 21 October 1980
Enclosure: Cost/Benefit Analysis (Part 2) of Advanced Material Technology Candidates for the 1980's AiResearch Document No. 21-3663 NASA CR-165176 (One Copy)
The above enclosure is submitted pursuant to Section C -F~nal Reports of the "Reports of Work" clause of the subject contract.
Publication and d~stribution is in accordance with the above referenced letter. Should there be any questions concerning the above, please contact the writer.
AIRESEARCH MANUFACTURING COMPANY OF ARIZONA
FAU:mt Enclosure as stated
cc: Mr. So Grisaffe/M/S 105-1 Mr. T. DeWitt/Garrett/Dayton
Manager Propulsio
Corporation
SYSTEMS ANO COMPONENTS F"OR AIRCRAF"T MISSILE SPACECRAF"T ELECTRONIC NUCLEAR AND INDUSTRIAL APPLICATIONS
1 Report No 2 Government Accession No 3 RecIpient's Catalog No
CR-165176 4 Title and Subtitle 5 Report Date
Cost/Benef~t Analys~s (Part 2) of Advanced Material August 1980 Technology Candldates for the 1980's 6 Performmg Organization Code
7 Author(s) 8 Performmg Organization Report No R. E. Denn~s H. F. Maertins AiResearch 21-3663
11 10 Work Unit No 9 Performmg Organization Name and Address
AiResearch Manufactur~ng Company of Ar~zona 11 Contract or Grant No A D~vis~on of The Garrett Corporation
Phoenix, Arizona 85010 NAS3-20073 13 Type of Report and Period Covered
12 Sponsoring Agency Name and Address ProJect a Completlon National Aeronaut~cs and Space Adm~n~stratlon Report (Part 2) Washington, D.C. 20546 14 Sponsoring Agency Code
15 Supplementary Notes
ProJect Manager: S. Grlsaffe, Mater~als and Structures Div~s~on, NASA-Lew~s Research Center, Cleveland, ahlO
16 Abstract
The cost/benefit analys~s ~s an effort to evaluate nlne new advanced mater~al tech-nolog~es proJects cons~dered for general av~ation and turboprop commuter a~rcr:afts through estlmated l~fe-cycle costs, d~rect-operat~ng costs, development costs, r~sks, and relat~ve values. ThHl analysis ~ncluded the follow~ng actlvlt~es:
0 Selection of the cand~date technolog~es for future MATE Program proJects
0 Development of the property goals for the candidate technologies
0 Determ~nat~on of the lmpact of engine we~ght and fuel consumptlon on air-frame we~ght and cost
0 Development of the eng ~ne and airframe life-cycle and direct-operat~ng cost models
0 Calculation of the potential benefits (life-cycle and d~rect-operting cost lmprovements) to a selected engine and a~rframe based on changes ln the engine performance resulting from the proposed incorporatlon of each cand!-date technology
0 Est~mat~on of the development cost and r~sk for each cand~date technology
0 Ranking of each candidate technology bas~d on the relative benef~ts to the a~rcraft, as well as the assoc~ated investments and rlsks ~nvolved.
17 Key Words (Suggested by Author(s)) 18 Distribution Statement
Cost-Analysis Advanced-Materlal R&D
19 SecUrity Classlf (of thiS report) 20 Security Classlf (of thiS page) 21 No of Pages 22 Price·
Unclass~fied Unclassified 110
• For sale by the National Technical Information SerVice, Springfield. Virginia 22161
NASA-C-168 (Rev 10-75) N~\-\\~S3-#-
This Page Intentionally Left Blank
,.,
FOREWORD
This Cost/Benefit Analysis (Part 2) was prepared for the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Lewis Research Center. It presents the results of a cost/benefit study conducted to evaluate costs, benefits, and risks for nine candidate material
technologies for general aviation aircraft plus small commuter aircraft. These technologies were compared through calculated life
cycle cost, direct-operating cost, and Relative Value. The study was conducted as part of the Materials for Advanced Turbine Engines
(MATE) Program under Contract NAS3-20073.
The authors wish to acknowledge the assistance and guidance of
C. Blankenship, S. Grisaffe, and R. L. Dreshfield of NASA-Lewis
Research Center.
iii
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,.
"I
TABLE OF CONTENTS
FOREWORD iii
SUMMARY 1
INTRODUCTION 8
STUDY APPROACH 10
SELECTED CANDIDATE MATERIAL TECHNOLOGIES 13
Low-Cost Alloy for LP Turbine Airfoils 15
Integral Net-Shape Powder-Metal Turbine Wheel 16
Damperless Fan Blade 18
ODS Transition Liner with Thermal-B3rrier Coating 19
Cooled HP Turbine Vane with Thermal-Barrier Coating 20
Cooled DS HP Turbine with Thermal-Barrier Coating 21
Advanced, Low-Cost Abradable Turbine Gas-Path and Labyrinth Seals 22
This document summarizes the second phase of a two-part cost/ benefit analysis (Part 1 is complete, see ref. 1) conducted as part of the NASA Materials for Advanced Turbine Engines (MATE) Program.
The objective of this cost/benefit analysis is to analyze the
costs, benefits, and risks for each new candidate technology to be
considered for future projects. This analysis includes the selection of technolog ies to be evaluated ~ development of property goals~ assessment of candidate technologies on typical engines and
aircraft; sensitivity analysis of the changes in property goals on
performance and economics, cost and risk analysis for each technology; and ranking of each technology by Relative Value.
The cost/benefit analysis was applied to a domestic, non
revenue producing, business-type jet aircraft configured with two TFE731-3 turbofan engines, and to a domestic, nonrevenue producing, business-type turboprop aircraft configured with two TPE33l-l0 turboprop engines. In addition, a cost/benefit analysis was applied to a commercial turboprop aircraft configured with a growth version of the TPE33l-l0. The aircraft chosen for that analysis was simi
lar to the Gates Lear]et 35/36, the Rockwell 980 Commander, and a 30-passenger Fairchild commuter aircraft. (For the purposes of this study, the effects of the technologies that were developed in previous MATE programs conducted by AiResearch were included in the
engines analyzed.)
Cost benefits of nine candidate material technologies, shown in Figure 1, were evaluated. The material technologies were compared by both life-cycle cost and Relative Value. Relative value is a method of comparlng technologies by equating benefits (pay-
offs), development cost, and probability of success. Value is defined as follows:
Relative Value = ~Life-Cycle Cost or ~Direct-Operating Cost X ~Development Cost
Probability of Success (1)
This approach should not be construed to represent the sole basis for selecting material technologies for engineering development and eng ine applications. Several other factors, such as engineering judgement or corporate priorities, may be as important
as Relati ve Value in the selection of mater ial technolog ies for
engine application.
Figures 2(A), 3(A), and 4(A) present the ranking of the nine
technologies based on Relative Value in the selected application.
The low-cost/llghtweight exhaust mixer nozzle and the cooled highpressure (HP) vane with thermal-barrier coating (TBC) rank the highest, followed by the advanced, low-cost abradable turbine gaspath and labyrinth seals. The remaining technologies fall in order
as shown in the following figures. The low-cost/lightweight mixer ~ nozzle was analyzed in comparison to the TFE731-3 with a coannular
exhaust nozzle (as is currently used on the Learjet 35/36) and to
the same engine conf.igured wi th a welded mixer nozzle.
Figures 2 (B) and 3 (B) rank the technologies on a straight change in life-cycle cost (~LCC). The direct-operating cost (DOC)
is summarized in Figure 4(B). This straight benefit ranking does
not include either the development cost or the probability of success factor. The high ranking technologies, in terms of benefits
only, are the low-cost/lightweight exhaust mixer nozzle, the cooled
HP turbine vane with TBC, and the advanced, low-cost abradable turbine gas-path and labyrinth seals.
The AiResearch corporate ranking is presented in Table I and follows the Relative Value and ~LCC/~DOC ranking for the top three technologies. The corporate ranking will be discussed in more
detail later in this report.
3
MIXER NOZZLE (1) * VANE WITH TBC
ABRADABLES
DUAL-ALLOY DISK
DAMPERLESS FAN BLADE
BLADE WITH TBC
ODS LINER WITH TBC
LOW-COST TURBINE ALLOY
o 200 400 600 800 1000 1400
RELATIVE VALUES (A)
MIXER NOZZLE {1}*
V AN E WITH TBC
ABRADABLES 1 MIXER NOZZLE (2)+ I
1800
IDAMPERLESS FAN BLADE
I DUAL-ALLOY DISK
I BLADE WITH TBC
tJ ODS LINER WITH TBC
~ LOW-COST TURBINE ALLOY
I
2200
I
I
o -400 -800 -1200 -1600 -2000 -2400
~LCC, 106 DOLLARS (B )
* SUPERPLASTIC FORMED (SPF) MIXER + SUPERPLASTIC FORMED (SPF) MIXER
4
NOZZLE COMPARED TO CONVENTIONAL NOZZLE COMPARED TO CONVENTIONAL COANNULAR MIXER NOZZLE. WELDED MIXER NOZZLE.
Figure 2. Turbofan Aircraft Relative Value and 6LCC Ranking of the Material Technologies.
VANE WITH TBC
ABRAUABLES 1
P BLADE WITH TBC
~ODS LINER WITH TBC
g PM TURBINE WHEEL
I LOW-COST TURBINE ALLOY I I
-100 0 200 400 600 RELATIVE VALUES
(A)
VANE WITH TBC
ABRADABLES I
BLADE WITH TBC I -
:JPM TURBINE WHEEL
P ODS LINER WITH TBC
LOW-COST TURBINE ALLOY
I
BOO 1000
I
I I I 1 I I I III I -I I I I I I I I I I
I
200 0 -200 -600 -1000 -1400 -1BOO -2200
ALCC, 106 DOLLARS (B)
Figure 3. Turboprop Business Aircraft Relative Value and dLCC Ranking of the Material Technologies.
5
6
ABRADABLES 1
lVANE WITH TBC
PBLADE WITH TBC
) ODS LINER WITH TBC
PM TURBINE WHEEL
I LOW-COST TURBINE ALLOY I I I I I I
-100 0 200 400 600 RELATIVE VALUES
(A)
VANE WITH TBC I
ABRADABLES 1
BLADE WITH TBCl
:JODS LINER WITH TBC
PM TURBINE WHEEL
[ LOW-COST TURBINE ALLOY I I I I I I
I
800
I
100 0 -200 -400 -600 -BOO
Ll DOC, 106 DOLLARS ( B )
I I
1000
I I
-1000
Figure 4. Turboprop-commuter Aircraft Relative Value and ~DOC Ranking of the Nine Material Technologies.
TABLE I. AIRESEARCH CORPORATE RANKING OF THE MATERIAL TECHNOLOGIES
3. Advanced, low-cost abradable turbine gas-path and labyrinth seals - TFE and TPE.
4. Hlgh-temperature, dual-alloy turbine disk - TFE only.
5. Damperless fan blade - TFE only.
6. Cooled directionally- solidifed (OS) HP turbine blade with TBC - TFE and TPE.
7. Oxide-dispersion strengthened, (ODS) transi han liner with TBC - TFE and TPE.
8. Integral net-shape power-metal (PM) turbine wheel - TPE only.
9. Low-cost alloy for low-pressure airfoils - TFE and TPE.
(LP) turbine
7
INTRODUCTION
The NASA MATE Program is a cooperative effort with industry to
accelerate the introduction of new materials into aircraft turbine
engines. Nine material technologies, which are possible candidates
for future MATE projects, were assessed by AiResearch on a cost/
benefit basis for their potential benefits in small turbine
engines. These advanced technologies are all currently in the
exploratory development stage. However, after laboratory feasi
bili ty has been adequately demonstrated, their advancement would
occur through the improvement of present materials, designs, and
process and manufacturing techniques. The verificaiton of the
potential benefits of these technologies would be accomplished by
hardware fabrication followed by component testing in actual engine
environments.
The cost/benefit analysis reported here in is an effort to
evaluate each of the nine new material technologies projects con
sidered through estimated life-cycle costs, development costs,
risks, and Relative Values. This analysis included the following
activities that are described in detail in this report:
8
o Selection of the candidate technologies for future MATE
Program projects
o Development of the property goals for the candidate tech
nologies
o Determination of the impact of engine weight and fuel
consumption on airframe weight and cost
o Development of the eng ine and airframe life-cycle cost
models
o Calculation of the potential benefits (life-cycle cost
improvements) to a selected engine and airframe based on changes in the engine performance resulting from the pro
posed incorporation of each candidate technology
o Estimation of the development cost and risk for each can
didate technology
o Ranking of each candidate technology based on the relative benefits to the aircraft, as well as the associated investments and risks involved.
This report emphasizes cost/benefits of advanced material technologies for general aviation aircraft. In addition, a cost/
benefit analysis of a turboprop-powered commuter aircraft was included in this study because of the growing interest in this type
of aircraft.
9
STUDY APPROACH
The cost/benefit analysis consisted of an evaluation based on
Ilfe-cycle cost considerations of nine candidate material technol
ogies as posslble futur.e MATE projects. The ranking of these can
didates was accomplished through the modeling of all of the life
cycle cost factors involved in the acqulsi tion cost, operation
cost, and maintenance cost. Figure 5 presents d flow chart illus
trating the methodology for thlS analysis.
The cost/benefit analysis began with descriptions of the can
didate technologies which included the capabillty goals (critical
and noncritical property goals that will be feasible for 1990 pro
duction technology) for relatlve strengths, welghts, and component
life; the probability of success for each goal; the probability of
success for producing the component while satisfying all of the
goals; the comparisons to current production parts; and the devel
opment costs.
Development costs for the selected component technologies were
prepared using inpu~ from AiResearch materials engineers and
AiResearch cost experience with similar efforts. The costs encom
passed the effort required to demonstrate, in an engine test, the
technical objectlves of the new technology.
The technical risk: associated with the technical objectives,
was estlmated based on primary factors that considered the nature
of the material, design approach/application, and current goal
status. The effect of secondary factors--such as alternate appli
ca tions, required mater ial development tlme, and cr i ticali ty of
component--were also included in the technlcal risk analysis. An
over all probability of success for each technology project was
estimated from the risk analysis.
10
MATERIAL TECHNOLOGY BASELINE AIRPLANE SELECTION ENGINE SELECTION
t t DEVELOPMENT PROPERTY
COST PROJECTIONS AND GOALS
t RISK CYCLE TOGW MODEL ANALYSIS ANALYSIS , , l
PROBABILITY ENGINE LCC MODEL OF SUCCESS EFFECTS
J RELATIVE VALUE BENEFIT ANALYSIS
AND RANKING (ALCC)
Figure 5. Flow Chart of the Study Approach.
11
The TFE73l turbofan engine used in the cost/benefit analysis
utilizes a geared fan driven by the LP spool. The geared-fan
design offers an optimum approach to high-cycle efficiency. The engine cycle was varied, depending upon the nature of the component
technology being incorporated, to achieve minimum engine thrust
specific fuel consumption. This was accomplished by optimizing the bypass ratio and core pressure ratio, within practical limits, at a constant cruise thrust level. Turbine inlet temperature was varied
according to the technology being considered.
The TFE73l turboprop engine used in the cost/benefit analysis
is a lightweight single-shaft engine featuring modular design and an integral gearbox and inlet. The engine cycle was optimized for specific fuel consumption at constant shaft horsepower, depending upon the nature of the component technology being incorporated. This was accomplished by optimizing the core flow within the same engine frame size. Turbine inlet temperature was varied according to the technology being considered.
The potential benefits for both engines were assessed through
analysis for weight, size, and life effects: and cost analyses in the manufacturing and maintenance areas. The aircraft benefits were assessed with inputs from the engine benefits analysis and the life-cycle cost (LCC) models. The engine/aircraft LCC models were utilized to develop sensitivity coefficients for the effects of changes in selected engine parameters (weight, thrust specific fuel consumption, size, cost, life) on total system life-cycle costs.
The analysis results are expressed in terms of the benefits resul
ting from application of each component materi~l technology to the selected engine/aircraft combination. These benefits are expressed as changes in life-cycle cost.
12
The cost estimating models for the aircraft were based upon a
scaled aircraft and engine meeting a fixed payload and range for
changes in engine specific fuel consumpt~on and weight. The scala
bility of the aircraft was determined by utilizing a weight model
for the aircraft that partitions the aircraft takeoff gross weight
into airframe fixed, airframe variable, installed engine, and fuel
and tankage elements. The installed engine weight fract~on relates the engine thrust requirements and the thrust/weight ratio to gross
we~ght via the lift-drag ratio. The fuel and tankage fraction
relates thrust spec~fic fuel consumption, range, and thrust
requirements to gross weight with use of the Breguet range equation
(ref. 2).
The follow~ng sections present further details of the cost/
benefit analysis methodology and results. Appendix B provides a list of abbreviations/symbols used in the following sections.
13
SELECTED CANDIDATE MATERIALS TECHNOLOGIES
ThiS section provides descriptions, material property and cost
goals for each of the candidate material technologies selected for
the cost/benef it analysls. These advanced mater ial technolog ies
were chosen because of their potential benefits to the engine/
aircraft application. Sharp increases in the cost of fuel over the
last five years have led to increased emphasis on the potential of
the candidate technologies for reducing fuel consumption. The list
of nine technology candidates, as shown below, incorporates input
that was collected from vendors, purchasing, performance, stress
analysis, mater ials, etc" to develop the goals required for the
cost/benefi t analysis. The composite nacelle/inlet components
technology, which was or iginally included in the list, was eli
minated Since thiS type of component is already available from at
least one vendor as a production component.
14
o Low-cost allo~ for LP turbine airfoils
o Integral net-shape PM turbine wheel
o Damperless fan blade
o ODS transition liner with TBC
o Cooled HP turbine vane with TBC
o Cooled DS HP turbine blade with TBC
o Advanced, low-cost abradable turbine gas-path and laby
rinth seals
o High-temperature dual-alloy turbine disk
o Low-cost/lightweight exhaust mixer nozzle
The material property goals were established for each of these
candldate advanced mater ial technologies based on projections of
current alloy/process technology. The technical and cost goals
were established by AiResearch mater ial experts based on a 1990
productlon status. This assumes a go-forward decision within the
MATE II program schedule. The technical material goals are based
on two criteria: property goals that must be met to offer a benefit
to engine life and/or performance (critical goals), and property
goals that must be closely approached to meet the life and per
formance Ob]ectlves (noncrltlcal goals). The cost goals are meant
to reflect a realistic evaluation of future production costs based
on AiResearch experience and published data. A probability of suc
cess for each goal is presented to reflect AiResearch's subjective
evalua tion. A we ighing factor was also established for the cr i
tical material and cost goals indicating the relative importance of
these goals to the success of the technology. The weighing factors
and probabilities of success were used in a risk analysis to arrive
at a project probability of success for each technology. A sub
sequent section of th1s report gives a description of how the risk
analysis was performed.
Development costs were estimated for each technology. These
estimates are based on all of the costs required to take the can
didate technology from its present development status through fac
tory engine demonstration tests, including rig-test costs, and
those costs chargeable to incorporation of the technology into an
engine.
Brief descriptions and the projected goals for each technology
are summarized in the following sections.
15
Low-Cost Alloy for LP Turbine Airfoils (TFE and TPE)
This project would lead to the production of LP turbine blades
and/or stators from a new low-cost, lower temperature capability alloy. These uncooled turbine components would be substituted for
more costly, conventional alloy turbine hardware without any loss
in performance.
16
• Capability Goals
o Critical Goals
Creep-rupture
80 percent of Inco 7l3LC in
strength to be at least the creep-rupture strength of the 1000-1300 of range - 60-
percent probability of success (30-percent
weighing factor).
HCF strength to be at least 80 percent of Inco
7l3LC in the 1000-1300 o F range - 60-percent probability of success (2S-percent weighing factor) •
D. Tensile strength, ductility and impact resis
tance to be 80 percent of Inco 7l3LC in the
1000-1300 o F range - 60-percent probability of success (IO-percent weighing factor).
o Noncritical Goals
Density equivalent to Inco 7l3LC.
Oxidation/corrosion resistance to be at least
as good as Inco 7l3LC up to l300°F.
• Finished Part Co~t Goal - 90 percent of the uncooled LPT
blades and stators used in TFE731 and/or TPE331 (assuming
conventional Ni-base mater ial costs escalate sub
stantially in the 1990 time frame) - GO-percent pro
bability of success (35-percent weighting factor).
• Estlmated Development Cost - $1,500,000.
• Project Probability of Success - 50-percent.
Integral Net-Shape Powder-Metal Turbine Wheel (TPE)
This project would lead to the productlon of lntegral net
shape turbine wheels of PM superalloys for use in the 1000-1300°F
maximum temperature range where cast inserted blades and forged
dlSks are used today. Pr imary benefits of the project would be
improving the cyclic Ilfe and rellability of turboprop engine tur
bine wheels while reducing the overall cost and weight.
• Capability Goals
o Crltical Goals
The low-cycle-fatigue life of the rim area to
be ten times that of cast Inco 713LC -
90-percent probability of success (lO-percent
weighing factor).
Wheels will be produced with net-shape blades
requir ing no
probabili ty of
factor).
finish machining - 70-percent
success (30-percent weighing
17
18
Creep-rupture strength to be equal to that of
cast Inco 7l3LC in the lOOO-l300°F range-
90-percent probability of success (lO-percent
weighing factor).
HCF strength to be equal to that of cast
Inco 7l3LC in the lOOO-l300°F range-
90-percent probability of success (lO-percent
weighing factor).
weight of the integral wheel to be 20-percent
less than the inserted blades/disk assembly -
90-percent probability of success (la-percent
weighing factor).
o Noncritical Goals
Densi ty to be no greater than that of
Inco 7l3LC.
o Oxidation/corrosion resistance to be equal to
that of Inco 7l3LC up to l300oF.
• Finished Part Cost Goal - 70 percent of the cost of a
TPE331 blade/disk assembly using a forged disk and indi
vidual inserted blades - 50-percent probability of suc
cess (30-percent weighing factor).
• Estimated Development Cost - $2,500,000.
• Project Probability of Success - 15 percent.
Damper1ess Fan Blade (TFE)
This project would lead to the production of a hollow damper
less titanium fan blade for use in the new TFE76 engine. This candidate technology is more applicable to the new TFE76 low-aspect
ratio fan blade than the TFE731 blade. Therefore, the benefits and eng ine demonstration test are planned for the TFE76 while the cost/benefit study will utilize the TFE731 engine/aircraft model.
The incorporation of this technology would result in a one-percent increase in the fan-stage efficiency.
• Capability Goals
o Critical Goals
Weight of fan blade to be reduced at least 25 percent to avoid vibration problems with
damper1ess fan blade - 75-percent probability of success (35-percent weighing factor).
Fan to pass FAA required bird-strike test -
60-percent probability of success (40-percent
weighing factor).
o Noncritical Goals
Weight of fan stage to be reduced by at least
10 percent.
Part life to be equal to that of production TFE731 fan blade.
• Finished Part Cost Goal - Cost of the total fan stage would be equal to or less than the present TFE76
19
design - 60-percent probability of success (25-percent weighing factor).
• Estimated Development Cost - $2,800,000.
• Project Probability of Success - 45 percent.
ODS Transition Liner with TBC (TFE and TPE)
This project would lead to production of an oxide-dispersion
strengthened (ODS) material transition liner with a TBC. As part
of this technology, an appropriate design must be established to
facilitate, fabricate, and repair the ODS liner. This technology
would utilize less cooling air to produce a longer life component
with less thermal distortion.
30 percent.
Cooling airflow will be reduced
20
Capability Goals
o Critical Goals
TBC to provide thermal protection for at least
3000 hours without spallation - 70-percent
probability of success (30-percent weighing
factor).
Durability of the TBC ODS liner must be ade
quate for 3000 hours - 50-percent probability
of success (30-percent weighing factor).
• Finished Part Cost Goal - 200 percent of the cost of the
current production components in the TFE73l and TPE73l -60-percent probability of success (40-percent weighing
factor) •
• Estimated Development Costs - $l,SOO,OOO.
• Project Probability of Success - 60 percent.
Cooled HP Turbine Vane with TBC (TFE and TPE)
This project would lead to the production of a TBC air-cooled HP turbine vane that operates at a lSO°F higher turbine inlet temperature while maintaining metal temperatures comparable to those
in the current TFE731 and TPE33l. The key to this project is the
development of a TBC that can function in the vane environment for the required life of the component without spallation.
• Capability Goals
o Critical Goals
TBC to provide thermal protection for turbine
vanes for 3000 hours plus at least one
recoating - 70-percent probability of success (40-percent weighing factor).
TBC to provide oxidation and corrosion pro
tection for 3000-hours vane life - 70-percent probability of success (20-percent weighing factor).
o Noncritical Goal
Coating must be capable of withstanding minor FOD without disbonding.
• Finished Part Cost Goal - ISO percent of the current cooled cast vane segment in the TFE731 or the
21
TPE331 - 70-percent probability of success (40-percent
weighing factor).
• Estimated Development Cost - $1,200,000.
• Project Probability of Success - 65 percent.
Cooled DS HP Turbine Blade with TBC (TFE and TPE)
This project would lead to the productlon of a TBC air-cooled,
DS HP turbine blade that can operate at a higher turbine inlet tem
perature than an uncoated, cooled DS blade. Technology goal is to
develop a variable thickness coating application that will minimize
additional centrifugal streses, optimize aerodynamic effects, and
provide a TBC that can survive in the HPT blade environment for the
requlred life.
22
• Capability Goals
o Critical Goals
TBC to provide thermal protection which wlll
allow cooled turbine blade to operate at 40°
higher gas temperatures compared to uncoated
blade - 60-percent probability of success
(40-percent weighing factor).
TBC blade to exhibit adequate durability to
provide 3000-hour life - 50-percent pro
bablllty of success (30-percent weighing
factor).
o Noncritical Goals
TBC to provide oxidation and corrosion protection for 3000-hour blade life.
Coating must be capable of withstanding minor
FOD without disbonding.
• Finished Part Cost Goal - 2S0 percent of the current
solid DS turbine blades in the TFE73l - 70-percent pro
babillty of success (30-percent weighing factor).
• Estimated Development Cost - $2,000,000.
• Project Probability of Success - 20 percent.
Advanced, Low-Cost Abradable Turbine Gas-Path and Labyrinth Seals (TFE and TPE)
This project would lead to the production of shrouds and/or
labyrinth seals that utilize low-cost, sprayed-on abradables.
Environment will vary from 1900°F at the HPT shroud to 10000F at
the LPT labyrinth. The incorporation of new abradables at all
these locations would result in a o. S-percent increase in HPT
efflclency, a O.S-percent increase in LPT efficiency, and a
1.0 increase in interstage efficiency.
• Capability Goals
o Critical Goals
Coating/Blade tip wear ratio equal to at
least IS:l - GO-percent probability of success
(3S-percent weighing factor).
23
Eroslon resistance adequate to meet 3000-hour part life - 50-percent probability of success (30-percent weighing factor).
o Noncritlcal Goal
Coating debris size less than 0.010 inch.
• Finished Part Cost Goal - Equal to current components with existing abradable coatings and a 10 percent or less cost
lncrease for LPT labyrinth and shroud components that are
not currently coated. A 25-percent cost increase over the
current HPT component (uncoated) would be anticipated -
60-percent probability of success (35-percent weighing fac
tor).
• Estlmated Development Cost - $800,000.
• Project Probabillty of Success - 50 percent.
High-Temperature Dual-Alloy Turbine Disk (TFE)
This project would lead to the production of a dual-alloy PM
turbine wheel with a high creep-resistant alloy rim and a high LCF
and tenslle strength alloy hub. The disk would be used in conjunction with high temperature uncooled inserted HP turbine blades.
This technology would allow the air required for rim cooling to be
reduced when uncooled turbine blades (OS, SC or ODS) replace con
ventional cooled blades. This reduction of cooling air is expected to increase HPT stage efficiency 0.6 percent.
24
• Capability Goals
o Critical Goals
o Creep strength of the rim material to be equi
valent to that of forged Waspaloy at l500F
higher rim temperature - 70-percent pro
bability of success (25-percent weighing
factor) •
Tensile strength of the bond joint between the
rim and hub alloys to be equal to that of the
rim alloy at the bond joint temperature-
80-percent probability of success (20-percent
weighing factor).
LCF and tensile strength of hub material to be
equal to that of Waspaloy - 90-percent pro
bability of successs (25-percent weighing fac
tor).
o Noncritical Goal
Density of bimetallic disk not to exceed that
of current forged Waspa10y disk.
• Finished Part Cost Goal - 135 pe:'cent of the machined
Waspa10y forging now used in the TFE731-3 engine-
55-percent probability of success (30-percent weigh ing
factor).
• Estimated Development Cost - $1,800,000.
• Project Probability of Success - 60 percent.
25
Low-Cost/Llghtweight Exhaust Mixer Nozzle {TFE}
This project would lead to the productlon of a low-cost,
lightweight superplastic formed titanium mixer nozzle for the
TFE73l engine to lmprove the overall engine performance 4 percent.
ThlS component is to replace the current fabricated coannular steel
nozzle and will lncorporate demonstrated performance improvement
design concepts.
26
• Capability Goals
o Critical Goals
Performance improvement
mixer nozzle to be at
80-percent probability of
weighing factor}.
with the compound
least 4 percent -
success {40-percent
Mixer nozzle to add not more than 2 percent to
the overall weight of the engine - 80-percent
probablllty of success {35-percent weighing
factor}.
• Finished Part Cost Goal - Incorporating this mixer
nozzle to increase the cost of the engine not more than
2 percent - 70-percent probability of success {25-percent
weighing factor}.
o Estlmated Development Cost - $1,000,000.
• Project Probability of Success - 75 percent.
RISK ANALYSIS
The risk analysis method used is basically the method described in NASA Report CR-13470l (ref. 3) with the added feature
that individual probabilities of success and weighing factors have been assigned to each of the critical property goals and the fin
ished part cost goal for the nine candidate technologies.
Several factors were considered in the risk analysis. Those
factors that are considered primary factors address the nature of
the material, the design approach/application, and the current goa~ status. Secondary factors that address alternate applications, requi red mater ial development time, and cr i tical i ty of the com
ponent are also considered. Except for the current goal status, an
alphabetical value is assigned to the primary and secondary factors
based on the criteria presented in Table II.
The current goal status is determined by applying the weighing
factors to the probability of success for each of the critical pro
perty goals and finished part cost goals, and summing the weighted individual probabilities of success. An alphabetical value accor-
ding to the scale defined in Table II is then assigned to the current goal status. The following example shows how the current goal status was determined for the low-cost/lightweight exhaust mixer
.. nozzle technology.
Critical Goals
Cost Goal
Probability of Success
0.80
0.80
0.70
---------------------weighing
Factor
0.40
0.35
0.25
Current Goal
Weighted Probability of Success
0.32
0.28
0.18
Status 0.78
27
TABLE II. DEGREE OF RISK CRITERIA
Factors Degrees of Risk
Primary Factors A B C
Nature of Material Traditional Advanced Revolutionary
Design Approach/ Traditional Advanced Revolutionary Application of Material
Current Goal Status 1.00-0.90 0.90-0.70 0.70-0.0 (Probability of Success)
Secondary Factors
Number of alternative 3 or more 2 1 approaches for application/ opportunities of incremental success for material
Required material 3 5 7 Development Time ,
(years)
Critical nature of Static/low Static/high Rotating component to which stress stress Material is applied
28
A numerical value for both the primary and secondary factors
is assigned based on the combination of alphabetical values pre
viously determined utilizing the following schedule:
Primary Factors Secondary Factors
-AAA == 1.00 3 A's :.:: -0 AAB == 0.95 2 A's, 1 B == -0.05 ABA, BAA == 0.90 1 A, 2 B's :: -0.10 MC == 0.85 2 A's, 1 C == -0.15 ABB,BAB,BBA == 0.80 1 A, 1 B, 1 C == -0.20
AiResearch has developed a technique for determining aircraft
LCC that begins wi th the formulation of a takeoff gross weight (TOGW)
model for the aircr aft, and proceeds to the formulation of the cost models for development, acquisition, operation, and mainten
ance costs for both the airframe and eng ine. This technique allows airframe weight and cost to be evaluated as changes in
engine parameters, especially engine weight and fuel consumption,
are considered.
Chang ing the airplane si ze and, hence, eng ine si ze for the
turboprop-powered commuter aircraft requires a direct operating
cost (DOC) model. As in the LCC model, the DOC analysis begins
with the formulation of a TOGW model.
Sensitivity coefficients of the TOGW model are obtained for
changes in engine TSFC and weight. Then, cost models for develop
ment, acquisition, operation, ~nd maintenance are prepared, and
the baseline costs are formulated as previously noted. A LCC/DOC
model is assembled from these models based upon linearized effects
of various engine parameters, and LCe/DOC sensitivity coefficients
developed for eng ine TSFC, weight, cost, life (TBO), and reliability (MTBF). When applied to engine design changes, these
coefficients will project a change in LCC/DOC.
Descriptions of the aircraft weight models and the various cost models are included in Appendix A of this report.
Sensitivity coefficients for changes in engine weight and
fuel consumption are calculated by changing the appropriate ele
ments of the TOGW equation. For instance, sensitivity to changes
54
in engine weight is determined by changing the engine weight in the installed engine weight (lEW) element and calculating a new
takeoff gross weight. The aircraft fixed weight element is held
constant for the specific aircraft designs since this element
represents basically the payload. The new takeoff gross weight is portioned using the original weight f~actions established for the aircr aft, and. new we ights and thrust are calculated.
In a similar manner, sensitivity coefficients are calculated for changes in engine fuel consumption. The sensitivity coeffic
ients calculated for changes in engine weight and TSFC for the
analysis are tabulated in Tables XIV, XV, and XVI. The new
thrust, fuel weight, and other parameters listed in the above
tables are utili zed in the appropr i ate LCC and DOC models, presented in Appendix A, to obtain the sensitivity of engine weight
and TSFC changes on aircraft LCC and DOC.
In addition, sensitivity to engine cost, time-betweenoverhaul (TBO) , and mean-time-between-failure (MTBF) are also
calculated.
The change in· LCC and direct-operating C0St resulting from a
one-percent change in TSFC, engine weight, engine cost, TBO, and
MTBF are tabulated in Tables XVII, XVIII, and XIX.
55
TABLE XIV. SENSITIVITY COEFFICIENTS CALCULATED FOR CHANGES IN ENGINE WEIGHT (ATSFC) AND (AWE) FOR TURBOFAN AIRCRAFT
The engine maintenance cost model is comprised of preventive
maintenance (inspection), module overhaul, unscheduled maintenance (repair of failures), and incorporation of se~vice bulletins.
The base~ine costs for preventive maintenance, module overhaul, and unscheduled maintenance are established from experience on similar applications. The incorporation of service bulletins is assumed to be 5 percent of the sum of the engine preventive main
tenance cost, overhaul cost, and unscheduled maintenance cost.
The change in engine life (TBO) and the resultant effect in cost can be determined by using an engine overhaul cost model. The
overhaul cost model may bea composite for the whole engine, or it can have separate expressions for each module or component. The
basic model for engine overhaul cost (EOC) is:
EOC = MOd~le [(BMOC) (~~~~O) (1 + ~ [~:gJ)] (Al3)
where:
BMOC = Baseline module overhaul cost (assumed at one-third
Aircraft cruise endurance with all fuel consumed (hours)
Thermal-barrier coating
Time-between-overhaul (engine life)
Takeoff
Total operating cost
Takeoff gross weight
TOH Total operating hours (for lifetime)
TSFC Average engine thrust specific fuel consumption
V Aircraft speed
WE Engine weight
WE Engine core weight c WF Fuel weight
WFINITIAL Fuel weight at start of cruise
WVFINAL Fuel weight at end of cruise
REFERENCES
1. Corney, D. H., "Cost/Benefit Analysis of Advanced Material Technologies," AiResearch Hanufacturing Company of Arizona, The Garrett Corporation; NASA Report CR-135265.
2. Nicolai, Leland M., "Fundamentals of Aircraft Design," University of Dayton School of Engineering, 1975, pp 5-1 to 5-24.
3. Bissett, J. W., "Cost/Benef it Study of Advanced Materials Technologies for Aircraft Turbine Engines~" Pratt & Whitney Aircraft Division, United Aircraft Corporation; NASA Report CR-134701. .
4. Burns, B. R. A., "The Design and Development of a Military Combat Aircraft - Part 2: Sizing the Aircraft," Interavia, May 1976, pp 448-450.
5. Nelson, J. R. and Timson, F. S., "Relating Technology to Acquisition Costs: Aircraft Turbine Engines," RAND Report R-1288-PR, March 1974, pp 20-35.
6. Humphreys, J. R., "Why So Few All-New Gener al Aviation Aircraft," Society of Experimental Test pilots Technical Review, Vol. 12, No.3, Spring 1975, pp 43-50.
TRW Inc. Attn D. Maxwell 235~5 Euclid Ave. Cleveland, OH 44117
'l'RW Inc. Attn. C. Cook 23555 Euclid Ave. Euclid, OH 44123
Turbine Support Co. Attn. M. Dean 4430 Director Drive P.O. Box 20148 San Antonio, TX 78220
Union Carbide Corporation ATTn L. Nelson Carbon Products Division P.O. Box 6116 Cleveland, OH 44101 . Union Carbide Corporation Attn R. Tucker Coatings Service Dept. 1500 Polco St. Indianapolis, IN 46224
United Airlines - SFOEG Attn J.Ke Curry San Francisco Airport CA 94J.28
United Airlines - SFOEG Attn J.K. Goodwine San Francisco Airport CA 941.28
United Tech Rsch Center Attn r ... ibrary East Hartford, CT 06108
TRW Inc. Attn. J. McCarthy 23555 Euclid Ave. Cleveland, OH 44117
TRW Inc. Attn T. Piwonka 23555 Euclid Ave. Cleveland, OH 44117
Turbine Support Co. Attn. K. Speirs 4430 Director Drive P.O. Box 20148 San Antonio, TX 78220
Union Carbide Corporation Attn. M.S. Wright Carbon ProdUcts Division P.O. Box 6116 Cleveland OH, 44101