COSMO-DE-EPS Status, developments & plans -- WG 7 parallel session -- Christoph Gebhardt, Susanne Theis, Michael Buchhold , Andreas Röpnack Deutscher Wetterdienst , DWD. Outline. operational set up forecast products verification results new developments current research future plans. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Welcome message from author
This document is posted to help you gain knowledge. Please leave a comment to let me know what you think about it! Share it to your friends and learn new things together.
temporal reference (e.g. of probs.):temporal reference (e.g. of probs.):1hour, 6 and 12 hours1hour, 6 and 12 hours
spatial reference spatial reference 1 grid point or 10 x 10 grid points (for precip. probabilities only)1 grid point or 10 x 10 grid points (for precip. probabilities only)
COSMO GM 2013, Sibiu C. Gebhardt, DWD
Verification of operational forecastsVerification of operational forecasts
EPS not calibrated or post-processedEPS not calibrated or post-processed
observations: rain-gauge adjusted radar or SYNOP observations: rain-gauge adjusted radar or SYNOP
COSMO GM 2013, Sibiu C. Gebhardt, DWD 11
STATUSSTATUS
COSMO GM 2013, Sibiu C. Gebhardt, DWD 12
winter 12/13
winter 11/12summer 11
summer 12
BrierBrier Skill Score Skill Score (reference: (reference: deterministic run deterministic run of COSMO-DE)of COSMO-DE)
hourly hourly precipitationprecipitation
COSMO GM 2013, Sibiu C. Gebhardt, DWD 13
winter 12/13
winter 11/12summer 11
summer 12
ROC areaROC area
hourly hourly precipitationprecipitation
COSMO GM 2013, Sibiu C. Gebhardt, DWD 14
winter 12/13
winter 11/12summer 11
summer 12
ReliabilityReliability
hourly hourly precipitationprecipitation
COSMO GM 2013, Sibiu C. Gebhardt, DWD 15
winter 12/13
winter 11/12summer 11
summer 12
Rank Rank histogrammhistogramm
hourly hourly precipitationprecipitation
2m temperature2m temperature wind gustswind gusts
rank histogramrank histogram
COSMO GM 2013, Sibiu C. Gebhardt, DWD 16
New developmentsNew developments
COSMO GM 2013, Sibiu C. Gebhardt, DWD 17
DEVELOPMENTSDEVELOPMENTS
Perturbed coefficient for minimum diffusionPerturbed coefficient for minimum diffusion (heat and momentum) (heat and momentum)
operational setup + perturbation of tkhmin, tkmminoperational setup + perturbation of tkhmin, tkmmin
Range: [0.2 ,0.5, 0.8]Range: [0.2 ,0.5, 0.8]
4 members 0.5, 7 members 0.2, 7 members 0.84 members 0.5, 7 members 0.2, 7 members 0.8
Test period: November 2011, 00 UTC runsTest period: November 2011, 00 UTC runs
COSMO GM 2013, Sibiu C. Gebhardt, DWD 18
2m temperature
perturbed minimum diffusion
referenceSkill (RMSE)
spread
COSMO GM 2013, Sibiu C. Gebhardt, DWD 19
2m temperature
perturbed minimum diffusion
reference
Brier Skill Score
COSMO GM 2013, Sibiu C. Gebhardt, DWD 20
± half the difference between C-EU and C-DE soil moisture in all layers but the lowest
Perturbation ~10% of layer water content units: kg/m2 COSMO GM 2013, Sibiu C. Gebhardt, DWD 23
2m temperature
perturbed soil moisture
reference
Skill (RMSE)
spread
COSMO GM 2013, Sibiu C. Gebhardt, DWD 24
2m temperature
perturbed soil moisture
referenceBrier Skill Score
COSMO GM 2013, Sibiu C. Gebhardt, DWD 26
Current researchCurrent research
COSMO GM 2013, Sibiu C. Gebhardt, DWD 27
DEVELOPMENTSDEVELOPMENTS
Probabilistic forecasts for efficient and safe use of renewable energies
(EweLine, ORKA)
Wind, photovoltaic
Evaluate forecast quality for wind farms
Improve methods for EPS perturbations, e.g. IC perturbations
FINO1
FINO3 FINO2
Cabauw Lindenberg
Karlsruhe
Hamburg
COSMO GM 2013, Sibiu C. Gebhardt, DWD 28
COSMO-DE-EPS at FINO2 (100m)
COSMO GM 2013, Sibiu C. Gebhardt, DWD 29
win
d s
pee
d
forecast time
Initial condition perturbationsInitial condition perturbationsmodified by orographymodified by orography
Current setup:Current setup:
• add anomalies to operational COSMO-DE analysis fields for add anomalies to operational COSMO-DE analysis fields for selected variablesselected variables
• Anomaly: BC-EPS minus short-range forecast (latest COSMO-EU)Anomaly: BC-EPS minus short-range forecast (latest COSMO-EU)
• Filter anomalies near the surfaceFilter anomalies near the surface
• Full anomaly above model level ~ 25, no perturbation below m.l. 40Full anomaly above model level ~ 25, no perturbation below m.l. 40
Modification:Modification:
• Degree of perturbation depends on Degree of perturbation depends on spatial variance of orographyspatial variance of orography
• The “smoother” the orography, the higher the degree of The “smoother” the orography, the higher the degree of perturbation near the surfaceperturbation near the surface
Test period: March 2012, 00 UTC runsTest period: March 2012, 00 UTC runs
COSMO GM 2013, Sibiu C. Gebhardt, DWD 30
COSMO GM 2013, Sibiu C. Gebhardt, DWD 31
deg
ree
of
per
turb
atio
n1
0
model level surfacemodel top
σh ≥ 500m
σh < 125m
COSMO GM 2013, Sibiu C. Gebhardt, DWD 33
10m wind gusts
modified IC perturbation
reference
Skill (RMSE)
spread
COSMO GM 2013, Sibiu C. Gebhardt, DWD 34
10m wind gusts
modified IC perturbation
referenceCRPS
COSMO GM 2013, Sibiu C. Gebhardt, DWD 35
hourly precipitation
modified IC perturbation
reference
Skill (RMSE)
spread
COSMO GM 2013, Sibiu C. Gebhardt, DWD 36
hourly precipitation
modified IC perturbation
reference
CRPS
COSMO GM 2013, Sibiu C. Gebhardt, DWD 37
2m temperature
modified IC perturbation
reference
Skill (RMSE)
spread
11 22 33 44 55
GMEGME
IFSIFS
GSMGSM
GFSGFS
BC-EPSBC-EPS
COSMO-LEPS
COSMO-LEPS
M1M1
M2M2
M3M3
M4M4
COSMO GM 2013, Sibiu C. Gebhardt, DWD 38
single-member single-member RMSERMSE
2m temperature 2m temperature 40 members40 members
BC-EPS driven members (1-BC-EPS driven members (1-20)20)
LEPS driven members (21-40)LEPS driven members (21-40)
forecast time in h
COSMO GM 2013, Sibiu C. Gebhardt, DWD
39
winter 2011/12winter 2011/12
Brier Skill Brier Skill ScoreScore
Threshold in K
2m temperature 2m temperature 40 members40 members
BC-EPS driven members (1-BC-EPS driven members (1-20)20)
LEPS driven members (21-40)LEPS driven members (21-40)
COSMO GM 2013, Sibiu C. Gebhardt, DWD 40
winter 2012/13winter 2012/13
single-member single-member RMSERMSE
forecast time in h
Brier Skill Brier Skill ScoreScore
Threshold in K
COSMO GM 2013, Sibiu C. Gebhardt, DWD 43
LEPS
Winter 11/12: COSMO 4.12 int2lm 1.18since 2012 0802 COSMO 4.21 int2lm 1.18since 2013 0123 COSMO 4.26 int2lm 1.20 no „Kain-Fritsch members“ used as BC for COSMO-DE-EPS since 2012 0329 BCEPS
calibration in operational modecalibration in operational mode (needs evaluation by forecasters) (needs evaluation by forecasters)
add new physics perturbations or alternative perturbation add new physics perturbations or alternative perturbation methods (e.g. stochastic physics)methods (e.g. stochastic physics)
LETKF for IC perturbations (KENDA)LETKF for IC perturbations (KENDA)
ICON-EPS for BC perturbations (2017 ?) ICON-EPS for BC perturbations (2017 ?)
use time-lagged ensemble approach in product generationuse time-lagged ensemble approach in product generation