Cosmic Rays and Space Weather Erwin O. Flückiger Laurent Desorgher, Rolf Bütikofer, Benoît Pirard Physikalisches Institut University of Bern [email protected]
Dec 17, 2015
Cosmic Rays and
Space Weather
Erwin O. FlückigerLaurent Desorgher, Rolf Bütikofer, Benoît Pirard
Physikalisches InstitutUniversity of Bern
The Cosmic Ray
-Space Weather
System87% p12% α& …..
Galactic and Solar Cosmic Rays
ACE, GOES…
Neutron Monitors
Muon Telescopes
AMS, BESS, PAMELA, …
AUGER, …
Special Detectors
Flux: ~35 orders of magnitude / Energy: ~ 14 orders of magnitude
Main Space Weather Domain at present
Worldwide Neutron Monitor Network
Detector Response (Parameterized Yield Function)
Neutron Monitors
neutrons & protons
p
Cascade of Secondary Cosmic Rays in the Atmosphere
Solar Modulation of Galactic Cosmic Rays1991-2001
Modulation Parameter Phi (Heliospheric Potential)
0200
400600
80010001200
14001600
18002000
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Year
Ph
i [M
V]
GCR Spectrum
1.00E-11
1.00E-10
1.00E-09
1.00E-08
1.00E-07
1.00E-06
1.00E-05
1.00E-04
1.00E-03
0.1 1 10 100 1000
Kinetic Energy [GeV]
Pro
ton
s /
(cm
2 s
sr
MeV
)
Phi=400
Phi=450
Phi=500
Phi=550
Phi=600
Phi=650
Phi=700
Phi=750
Phi=800
Phi=850
Phi=900
Phi=950
Phi=1000
Geomagnetic Shielding
ofGalactic
Cosmic Rays
Earth
Latitude Dependence of Cosmic Ray Intensity
(sea level)
Solar Maximum
Solar Minimum
Solar Cosmic Rays
Solar Flare
Sun
Earth
Electromagnetic Radiation
& Neutrons
ChargedParticles
• In the January 20, 2005 GLE, the earliest neutron monitor onset preceded the earliest Proton Alert issued by the Space Environment Center by 14 minutes
• Neutron Monitors can provide the earliest alert of a Solar Energetic Particle Event
Bieber, ICRC 2007 Workshop
Solar Energetic Particle Event Alert
• GLE Alert Study: a GLE Alert is issued when 3 stations of Spaceship Earth (plus South Pole) record a 4% increase in 3-min averaged data
• With 3 stations, false alarm rate is near zero• GLE Alert precedes SEC Proton Alert by ~ 10-30 min
Bieber, ICRC 2007 Workshop
Solar Cosmic Ray Events Forecasting Intensity / Time Profile
Dorman et al., 2005
September 29, 1989 GLE: forecasting of total neutron intensity (time t is in minutes after 11.40 UT)circles – observed total neutron intensity curves – forecasting
Solar Cosmic Rays
Evaluation of Radiation Doses
The 13 December 2006 Solar Particle EventNeutron Monitor Observations
PLANETOCOSMICS: - Cascade in the Atmosphere- Secondary Spectra
From NM Data, outside of the Magnetosphere:- Apparent Source Direction- Pitch Angle Distribution- Rigidity Spectrum
Spectrum at the top of the Atmospherefor specified arrival directions
PLANETOCOSMICS: - Asymptotic Directions(MAGNETOCOSMICS) - Cutoff Rigidities
Method
Secondary Spectra → DosagePelliccioni et al., Overview of Fluence to Effective Dose and Fluence to Ambient Dose Conversion Coefficients for High Energy Radiation Calculated Using the FLUKA Code, Radiation Protection Dosimetry 2000;88:4:279-297
The 13 December 2006 Solar Particle EventRadiation Exposure at Aircraft Altitude
Apatity NM
The 13 December 2006 Solar Particle EventRadiation Exposure at Aircraft Altitude
Apatity NM
Solar Cosmic Ray Access to Earth
Solar Cosmic Ray Access to Earth
The 13 December 2006 Solar Particle EventRadiation Exposure at Aircraft Altitude
http://www.euradnews.org/
…………
For normal aircraft altitudes and for higher latitudes, for instance for Europe to US west coast or Japan routes, initial estimates indicate that the additional doses should not exceed 40 µSv/flight.
Final estimates will be produced after analysis of satellite and ground monitor data, and any in−flight measurements results.……….
Notification of Ground Level Event:December 13th, 2006Assessment of doses by the EURADOS Working Group `Aircraft Crew Dosimetry`
30th ICRC; Paper 715, Shea & Smart
GLEs during Solar Cycles 19-23
Distribution of GLEs for 5 solar cycles.
CMEsInterplanetary ShocksGeomagnetic Storms
Warning of Approaching Disturbance
CME / Interplanetary Shock – Geomagnetic Storm
Credit: NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center Conceptual Image Lab
Directional Viewing of Ground Based CR Detectors
Neutron Monitors
neutrons & protons
p
muons
Muon Telescopes
p p p
Interplanetary Space
Bending of Particle Trajectories in the Earth‘s Magnetic Field
Cascade of Secondary Cosmic Rays in the Atmosphere
Magnetopause
Directional Viewing
Example: Five selected viewing directions of the MuSTAnG Muon Space Weather Telescope for Anisotropies at Greifswald
(~ 54°N, ~ 13°E) (GSE coordinate system, Robinson projection)
Sun IMF
90°180°
30°S
60°S
Directional Viewing
Example: 24-hour rotation of five selected viewing directions of the MuSTAnG Muon Space Weather Telescope for Anisotropies at Greifswald
(GSE coordinate system, Robinson projection)
Sun IMF
Loss-cone PrecursorsNagashima et al. [1992], Ruffolo [1999]
Intensity deficit confined in a cone
Bieber, ICRC 2007 Workshop
Muon Diagnostics
Loss Cones appear as a “Predecrease” when viewed by a single detector
Event on December 14, 2006 observed by muon detector in São Martinho, BrazilAs detector viewing directions rotate through loss cone, a predecrease is seen first from
the East, then from Vertical, and finally from West
Bieber, ICRC 2007 Workshop
Muon Diagnostices
ICRC 2007, Paper 298, Timashkov et al.
URAGAN muon hodoscope
Muon Diagnostices
Loss Cones Can Be Seen in a “Bubble Plot” in Large Events
• In this bubble plot, each circle represents a directional channel in a muon telescope
• Circle is plotted at time of observation (abscissa) and pitch angle of asymptotic viewing direction (ordinate)
• Solid circles indicate a deficit intensity relative to omnidirectional average, and open circles indicate excess intensity; scale is indicated at right of plot
• Loss cone is evidenced by large solid circles concentrated near 0O pitch angle
• Figure adapted from Munakata et al., J. Geophys. Res., 105, 27457-27468, 2000.
Bieber, ICRC 2007 Workshop
Muon Network Loss Cone Display
and Bidirectional Streaming Display Spaceship Earth Loss Cone Display
and Bidirectional Streaming Display
Spaceship Earth
11-station network of neutron monitors strategically located to provide precise, real-time, 3-dimensional measurements of the cosmic ray angular distribution. Participating institutions include the University of Delaware, IZMIRAN (Moscow Region, Russia), Polar Geophysical Institute (Apatity, Russia), Institute of Solar-Terrestrial Physics (Russia), Institute of Cosmophysical Research and Aeronomy (Russia), Institute of Cosmophysical Research and Radio Wave Propagation (Russia), Australian Antarctic Division (Hobart), and the University of Tasmania (Hobart).
http://neutronm.bartol.udel.edu/spaceweather/
CMEsInterplanetary ShocksGeomagnetic Storms
“Geo-effectiveness”
Predictions limited
The December 2006 Geomagnetic Storm
The December 2006 Geomagnetic Storm
The 14 December 2006 Forbush Decrease
Modulation of galactic cosmic ray intensity
~5% Decrease at mid-latitude
Jungfraujoch Neutron Monitor
GLE
Space Weather Networks
e.g. - Spaceship Earth- Aragats Space –Environmental Center (ASEC) in Armenia- Israel Cosmic Ray and Space Weather Center
- MuSTAnG – Muon Space Weather Telescope for Anisotropies at Greifswald
- Space Environmental Viewing and Analysis Network (SEVAN)
- FP-7 Program NMDB (Real Time Neutron Monitor Data Base) Kick-off meeting January 2008
Summary and Conclusions• Galactic and solar cosmic rays play a significant role in all space
weather scenarios
• Solar cosmic ray particle events:- Forecasting of occurrence not possible at present stage- New analysis techniques allow limited alert and prognosis of
characterstics of ongoing events- Quantitative modelling (e.g. of radiation dosis at aircraft
altitude) needs expertise in a broad field of topics
• Solar/geomagnetic storms:- Inner heliosphere screening: Warning of approaching
disturbances possible with neutron monitor and muontelescope data
• New Hybrid Particle Detectors measuring multiple secondary particle fluxes have a large potential
• Global detector networks operating in real time are essential for space weather applications!