Corps of Engineers

US Army Corps of Engineers

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Mid-West Electric Consumers AssociationSeptember 16, 2014

Corps of EngineersUS Army

Missouri River Mainstem System2014-2015 Draft Annual Operating Plan

Mike Swenson, P.E.Power Production Team LeadMissouri River Basin Water Management

Graphics courtesy of National Drought Mitigation Center

June Precipitation – Percent of Normal

July Precipitation – Percent of Normal

August Precipitation – Percent of Normal

3-Month OutlooksAugust - October

Missouri River Mainstem SystemAnnual Runoff above Sioux City, IA

Million Acre-Feet

U.D.

L.D.L.Q.

U.Q.

Med.

10%

90%

75%

25%

50%

34.5 MAF

16.1

19.3

30.6

24.6

Historic Drought Periods2014

Missouri River Runoff above Sioux City, IA 2014 Actual and Forecasted

Million Acre-Feet

Missouri River Mainstem SystemStorage Zones and Allocations

Exclusive Flood Control 7%

Carryover Multiple Use

53%

Permanent Pool 24%

0

17.6

56.1

72.4

67.7

72.8

StorageIn MAF

33.9

Annual Flood Control & Multiple Use 16% Sept 16, 2014

Historic max - 2011

Historic min - 2007

60.8

50.7 MAF - March 1, 2014

Current Reservoir Levels – Sept 15, 2014

2220.1

Exclusive Flood Control

Annual Flood Control & Multiple Use

Carryover Multiple Use

Permanent Pool

22502252.3

2220.1

Exclusive Flood Control

Annual Flood Control & Multiple Use

Carryover Multiple Use

Permanent Pool

2220.1

Exclusive Flood Control

Annual Flood Control & Multiple Use

Carryover Multiple Use

Permanent Pool

2220.1

Exclusive Flood Control

Annual Flood Control & Multiple Use

Carryover Multiple Use

Permanent Pool

2246

2234

2160

2030

1854

1850

1837.5

1775

1673

1854.8

1620

1617

1607.5

1540

1415

72.4

67.7

56.1

17.6

0

Fort Peck

Oahe

Garrison

System Storage

2232.4

1805.8

1570.233.9

1619.7 72.8

2196.2

1844.7

1614.4 60.8

1.6 feet below base of Carryover Multiple Use Zone. 7.2 feet above base of Carryover Multiple Use Zone.

6.9 feet above base of Carryover Multiple Use Zone. 4.7 MAF above base of Carryover Multiple Use Zone.

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2014 Reservoir Operations Flood Control

► System storage peaked on September 1 at 61.3 MAF, utilizing 32 percent of the system’s flood control storage

► Gavins Point releases reduced in mid-June in response to record flooding on the Big Sioux River. Release reduction lowered peak stages 3 to 4 feet in most areas

► Releases increased at lower four projects in September to evacuate stored water

Navigation ► Started season at intermediate service► Increased to full service flow support after July 1 storage check► 10-Day extension to the navigation season

Hydropower► Annual generation forecast is 9.9 BkWh; long term average is 9.4 BkWh

Recreation, Water Supply and Irrigation► Normal to above reservoir levels and releases► Gavins Point winter release will be 20,000 cfs

Fish and Wildlife / Endangered Species► All three upper reservoirs rose this year during the forage fish spawn► Spring pulses from Gavins Point dam were not conducted this year

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Planned Operation for 2015 Draft Annual Operating Plan developed using 1 September

starting conditions► Based on 5 statistical runoff scenarios► Will begin runoff year at the base of the Annual Flood Control

Zone► No spring pulse in 2015

Letter to Tribes will offer consultation Draft AOP released in September 2014 Public meetings scheduled for October 27-29, 2014

► Fort Peck, Bismarck, Pierre, Smithville and Council Bluffs

Final Annual Operating Plan in December 2014

System Storage 2014-2015 Decision Points

Top of Exclusive Flood Control – 72.4 maf

Base of Exclusive Flood Control – 67.7 maf

Million Acre-Feet

Base of Annual Flood Control – 56.1 maf

2014 2015 2016

Navigation Preclude – 31 maf

Missouri River Downstream Flow SupportSupport for 2015 Navigation Season

Runoff Scenario

Annual Runoff Volume(MAF)

July 1 System Storage (MAF)

Flow Level Above or Below Full

Service (in kcfs)

Length of Shortening

(Days)

Spring Fall

Upper Decile 34.5 64.0 0 +19 0*

Upper Quartile 30.6 63.1 0 +12 0*

Median 24.6 60.8 0 0 0

Lower Quartile 19.3 57.7 0 0 0

Lower Decile 16.1 56.5 0 -0.5 0

* 10-day extension for Upper Quartile and Upper Decile

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Draft 2014-2015 Annual Operating Plan (AOP)Median Runoff Condition

Flood Control►Begin 2015 runoff season at the base of the annual flood

control zone

Navigation ► Full service flow support to start season► Full service flow support for Lower Quartile and above

runoff following July 1 storage check► Full length navigation season

Hydropower – Annual Generation = 9.7 BkWh in 2015

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Draft 2014-2015 Annual Operating Plan (AOP)Median Runoff Condition

Recreation, water supply and irrigation►Near normal reservoir levels and releases►Winter releases of 17,000 cfs from Gavins Point

Fish and Wildlife / Endangered Species► Favor Fort Peck and Oahe during forage fish spawn►No March and May spring pulses from Gavins Point►Minimize zero releases at Fort Randall to the extent

reasonably possible

Missouri River Mainstem SystemForecasted Energy Generation

Upper Basic: 10,500 GWhBasic: 9,900 GWhLower Basic: 9,400 GWh

Energy in GWh

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Mainstem System Generation

Million MWhs

Normal UD Med LD

9.410.4

7.68.7

11.2

14.6

10.09.6

6.1

7.5 7.6

6.55.6

6.3

4.9

6.6

9.7

12.8

9.911.1

13.5

4.9

8.7

10.2 9.9

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Missouri River Basin – Mountain Snowpack Water Content2013-2014 with comparison plots from 1997*, 2001*, and 2011

The mountain snowpack peaked in the “Total above Fort Peck” reach on April 7 at 132% of the normal April 15 peak.The mountain snowpack peaked in the “Total Fort Peck to Garrison” reach on April 17 at 140% of the normal April 15 peak.

*Generally considered the high and low year of the last 20-year period. Provisional data. Subject to revision.

July 7, 2014

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Plains Snowpack

1 March 2014

1 March 20131 March 2011

Graphics courtesy of National Drought Mitigation Center

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