Rhidian Morgan The Social Investment Business Lending to small business Opportunity or threat?
Jan 13, 2015
Rhidian Morgan
The Social Investment Business
Lending to small businessOpportunity or threat?
• Confidence – very low• Certain sectors struggling more• Project Merlin• For most SMEs the door is shut – especially for small
businesses and start ups
Current Climate
• Business plan - limitations• Management interview - test assertions/assumptions• Financial analysis - forecasts and historic• Due diligence - market/competition/product• Recommendation• Conditions - covenants• Perfecting security
Investment Appraisal Process
• Poor marketing• Cash flow problems• Poor business planning• Lack of finance• Failure to embrace new technologies and new developments• Poor choice of location• Poor management• Poor human resource relations• Lack of clear objectives
Key reasons for business failure
Source: Office of Advocacy of the U.S. Small Business Administration
Business failure rates
42%
• The trouble of lending to business is its so damned risky!
Risk
The average loan portfolio in Wales* = £400,000
The average bad debt stands at 5%
Your exposure is £20,000
* Excludes Cardiff, N Wales & Save-Easy
What impact could this have?
If you were to lend £400,000 to business (and you knew what you were doing)
Your exposure could be as high as £123,000
Standard CU Lending Business Lending (unsecured)
• Credit unions are able to choose to offer membership to unincorporated associations and corporate bodies such as companies, partnerships and social enterprises.
• Non-individuals can only make up a maximum of 10% of a credit union’s total membership hold a maximum of 25% of shares in the credit union and be granted a maximum of 10% of loans
What will the LRO allow us to do?
Still think it’s too risky to lend to SMEs?
There are people out there lending to businesses ....
How are they doing it?
• The Father of Micro-finance: Mohammed Yunus
Micro-finance
• Started in Bangladesh providing microcredit to the impoverished without requiring collateral
• Based on the idea that the poor have skills that are under-utilized• A distinctive feature of the bank's credit program is that the
overwhelming majority (98%) of its borrowers are women.• A group-based credit approach is applied which utilizes the peer-
pressure within the group• By 2008 Grameen had invested $7.6 billion
Micro-finance: Grameen Bank
• Each borrower must belong to a five-member group• The group is not required to give any guarantee for a loan to its
member• Repayment responsibility solely rests on the individual borrower• The group oversee that everyone behaves in a responsible way and
none gets into a repayment problem• Grameen's policy is not to extend further credit to a group in which a
member defaults
Micro-finance: How solitary lending works
• Access• Flexibility• Simplicity• Honesty• Respect • Personal Relationship
Price is not the driver
• Within a year (of starting), Wonga had issued 100,000 loans, worth £20 million, earning about £15 million by charging interest at an eye-watering headline rate.
• Exploitation or Convenience?
Price is not the driver
Case Study
Fair Finance
London
Fair Finance: Isn’t it time you got a better deal?
• CDFI operating within specific London Boroughs• Very similar in approach to Moneyline Cymru• Only provide personal & business loans and advice• Borrow the majority of their money through commercial
sources, i.e. banks
Fair Finance
• Maximum £10,000 (minimum £1k)• Average investment £3,500• Interest rates between 19% - 20% (39%-59% personal
borrowing)• Last year made 71 loans to a value of £250,000• Conversion rate 20%• Failure rate upwards of 30%• Bad debt 10%
Fair Finance: Loan characteristics
• £3,500 Loan over 36 months• Admin fee £120• Total Interest payable £999.00• Fixed Interest Rate 19%• Total Repayment £4618.80• They make £1,118.80 on this transaction
Fair Finance: Representative business loan
• Based on 71 loans and an average income of £1,119• Total earnings over 3 years = £79,449, or• £26,000 per annum, before• Cost of capital• Bad debt• Operational costs• £1m of lending might generate something like £318k
over 3 years
Fair Finance: Income generation
Case Study
Finance Wales
Finance Wales: Micro-business Loan Fund
Size of Fund £ 6 million (minimum sub-funds of £1m to be allocated subject to investments made)
Fund Product LoansGeographical Coverage Pan-Wales
Sector All Size of Loans Offered £1,000- £20,000
Number of Investments
300-600
Repayment profile 5 year investment period followed by 5 year realisation period
Default rates* 20%
Finance Wales: Micro-business Loan Fund
Stage DateIssue contract notice and PQQ 12 June 2012Final date for PSPs to raise questions 19 July 2012Final date for PSPs to return PQQ 25 July 2012 (12pm)PQQ Evaluation Panel carry out PQQ scoring 26 July – 3 August 2012
Bidder consultation prior to issue of ITT 6 August – 10 August 2012 Invitations to Tender will be issued to successful suppliers and unsuccessful PSPs notified. Debriefs given on request.
17 August 2012
Final date for PSPs to raise questions on ITT 17 October 2012
Return date for final tenders 19 October 2012
Finance Wales: Micro-business Loan Fund
ITT evaluation and scoring 22 – 26 October 2012
Presentations may be held 29 October – 2 November 2012
Intention to Award notification letters issued electronically and start of Standstill period
7 November 2012
End of Standstill period 21 November 2012
Contract award 23 November
Finalise and sign contracts November 2012
Service commencement date December 2012
• Do nothing• Individual bid• Consortium bid• What can we do to help facilitate the process?
The way forward?
Thank you
Any questions?
Contact details
www.thesocialinvestmentbusiness.org
Tel: 0191 261 5200
Rhidian Morgan
Tel: 02920 786453