Market update and current views Presentation to The Senate Group Peter Kempen November 2015
Market update and current views
Presentation to The Senate GroupPeter KempenNovember 2015
Coronation’s positioning
2
Markets have bifurcated• JSE: R100 invested in
� RESI 3 years ago now worth R82� FINDI 3 years ago now R182
• Global Equities: USD100 invested in � MSCI World 5 years ago is now worth $163� MSCI GEM 5 years ago is now worth $91
The big miners have been carried out• Rand share price declines between 58.1% (Glencore) and 98.5% (Lonmin) since peak
Rampant USD, especially against EM & commodity currencies• Our GEM fund lost 20% over the past 12 months on BRL & RUB currency movement alone
Our performance• SA Multi-asset
� Comfortably first quartile 3 years plus, around average shorter periods• SA Equity
� Comfortably above average 2 years plus, behind average shorter periods because roughly 20% in miners� Top 20 < Equity by ±3% p.a. given difference in concentration levels
• Global� Opps Equity FoF above average all periods� Directly managed funds lagging shorter term because of ± 30% of equity in EM
Performance
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Performance
Source: Morningstar as at 30 September 2015
-30.00
-20.00
-10.00
0.00
10.00
20.00
30.00
40.00
1 Year 3 Year 5 Year 10 Year
Rate of Return (%)
ASISA SA Equity General
Coronation Top 20 A Coronation Equity R ALSI Top 40
4
Performance
Source: Morningstar as at 30 September 2015
-30.00
-20.00
-10.00
0.00
10.00
20.00
30.00
1 Year 3 Year 5 Year 10 Year
Rate of Return (%)
ASISA MA High Equity Sector
Coronation Balanced Plus A Balanced Plus Composite Index
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Performance
Source: Morningstar as at 30 September 2015
-2.00
0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
10.00
12.00
14.00
16.00
1 Year 3 Year 5 Year
Rate of Return (%)
ASISA SA MA Low Equity
Coronation Balanced Defensive A STeFI 3m + 3%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
Sep
-94
Mar
-95
Sep
-95
Mar
-96
Sep
-96
Mar
-97
Sep
-97
Mar
-98
Sep
-98
Mar
-99
Sep
-99
Mar
-00
Sep
-00
Mar
-01
Sep
-01
Mar
-02
Sep
-02
Mar
-03
Sep
-03
Mar
-04
Sep
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Mar
-05
Sep
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Mar
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Sep
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Mar
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Sep
-07
Mar
-08
Sep
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Mar
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Sep
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Mar
-10
Sep
-10
Mar
-11
Sep
-11
Mar
-12
Sep
-12
Mar
-13
Sep
-13
Mar
-14
Sep
-14
Mar
-15
Sep
-15
Coronation Houseview Equity Fund - 1 year rolling al pha
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Short-term alpha is lumpyA successful track record comes with testing years
Selling inflated rand-hedge stocks
Buying depressed interest rate sensitive stocks
As at 30 September 2015
Selling overvalued commodity and construction shares
Selling inflated domestic stocks &
buying cheap global JSE listed stocks
Selling overvalued defensive domestics & buying depressed commodity stocks
7
Alpha over meaningful periodsIt’s over the long term that we measure results
As at 30 September 2015
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
Sep
-98
Mar
-99
Sep
-99
Mar
-00
Sep
-00
Mar
-01
Sep
-01
Mar
-02
Sep
-02
Mar
-03
Sep
-03
Mar
-04
Sep
-04
Mar
-05
Sep
-05
Mar
-06
Sep
-06
Mar
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Sep
-07
Mar
-08
Sep
-08
Mar
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Sep
-09
Mar
-10
Sep
-10
Mar
-11
Sep
-11
Mar
-12
Sep
-12
Mar
-13
Sep
-13
Mar
-14
Sep
-14
Mar
-15
Sep
-15
Coronation Houseview Equity Fund - long term alpha
5 year alpha 10 year alpha
Domestic Equity Funds
Source: Morningstar, Coronation Research as at August 2015.Based on rolling 5 year return (as at month end) calculated over the past 10 years.
0% 25% 50% 75% 100%
Coronation Equity R
SIM General Equity R
Prudential Equity A
Coronation Top 20 A
Foord Equity R
Prudential Dividend Maximiser A
PSG Equity A
Allan Gray Equity A
STANLIB Equity R
Investec Value R
Investec Equity R
Nedgroup Inv Rainmaker A
1st Quartile 2nd Quartile 3rd Quartile 4th Quartile
Multi Asset High Equity Funds
Source: Morningstar, Coronation Research as at August 2015.Based on rolling 5 year return (as at month end) calculated over the past 10 years.
0% 25% 50% 75% 100%
Coronation Balanced Plus A
Foord Balanced R
Rezco Value Trend A
Allan Gray Balanced A
Investec Opportunity R
Prudential Balanced A
PSG Balanced A
STANLIB Balanced B1
SIM Balanced R
Nedgroup Inv Managed R
Investec Managed R
1st Quartile 2nd Quartile 3rd Quartile 4th Quartile
Global macro economic environment
US the only major economy ready to start hiking interest rates • Although we do not expect a sharp cycle the improving economy no longer warrants zero interest rates
• The big medium term (historical) reason for EM falling out of favour… remember the taper tantrum?
Chinese stock market volatility must not be seen as a predictor of the economy • But the economy has slowed and a hard landing remains the greatest global macro worry
• Fears about China is the proximate cause for August’s return of volatility
• Policy has become more stimulatory as the economic slowdown continues
Greece got to the edge of the cliff but not quite over it• Caused initial spike in volatility and eventual Grexit remains a possibility
• No-one cares for now as the can has been kicked down the road
� Expect to hear about Greece again in 2017…
• Deflation still the ECB’s major focus... no interest rate hikes on the horizon here
Commodity prices fall further• Commodity producer currencies very weak
Unsynchronized growth
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US: Recovery in employment means rates will start rising
Source: I-net
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China slowing more
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China: more evidence of slowdown
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Tumbling commodities
Source: I-net
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GEM currencies very weak vs. USD
CNY devaluation in context - Other EM & Commodity currencies hammered
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Future of emerging markets
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EMs are caught in a macro driven storm
• Concerns over Chinese growth combined with Fed hike expectations and a strong USD
• There has been a collapse in EM since the Chinese stock market started declining with an acceleration since the renminbi was devalued by ±3%
• Many commodities and EM currencies are at levels not seen since the ‘90’s
• Capital outflows from EM are now being compared to those of the GFC
Surge in EM outflows hits share prices and currencies
…yet life continues to go on for the companies in wh ich we invest, their long term prospects are attractive and valuations are ve ry low
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Not a fair illustration of the opportunities available in emerging markets
MSCI GEM Index
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Large MSCI GEM index holdings mostly are/have:• Below average businesses – banks, energy, tech hardware
• Significant state ownership / state regulation
• Poor stewards of capital
• Cyclical earnings
An investment in these companies does NOT represent the opportunity set in EM
If you invest in poor businesses, expect poor long term returns
Right now:• Global macroeconomic environment is uncertain and looks especially poor in EMs
• Expect volatility to continue but in EMs you can find…
• Great businesses� At attractive valuations� With powerful long term structural drivers� That make great long term investments� And can’t be captured in the DM space
Think beyond the index
Russian Food Retail: the long-term opportunity
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Top 5 grocery retailers in Russia are 20% of market (vs. 60-70% in established
markets)
Where else can you get growth like this?• Exceptional businesses
• Great management teams
• Experienced crises like this before and thrived
• At attractive valuations
Russia Food Retail
368 6101 014
1 5001 893 2 194
2 5683 204
4 002
5 006
6 046
7 200
8 344
9 694
0
2 500
5 000
7 500
10 000
12 500
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 F2015
Magnit Convenience Store Base
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Brazilian Private Education – why invest?
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Government target not very aggressive
33% target
DL centres exclusively private sector run
Private sector has taken 90% of new campus
students over this period
Powerful incentive to study further given uptick in
lifetime earning potential
Tertiary education almost non-existent outside the wealthy
Loan growth 1.3 – 3.0x nominal GDP for close to 20 years now• But still under-banked by most metrics
Indian Banks
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Mortgages and retail loans still very small in the mix
Indian Banks
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Public sector banks losing market share to private sector
Indian Banks
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Several businesses in many industries rapidly capturing the market
Large investible universe spread across:• Search
• eCommerce
• Online travel
• Mobile Value Added Services
• Gaming
• Video
• Classified advertising
• Recruitment
• Property
• General portals
China Internet Stocks
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Online shopping already larger than USA and still growing fast
China Internet Stocks – JD.com / Alibaba
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The “Google” of China
China Internet Stocks - Baidu
0
250 000
500 000
750 000
1 000 000
1 250 000
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Baidu - number of advertisers
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It is normal to second guess allocation to an asset class when it has underperformed so significantly BUT
A long term specific allocation to GEM is still appropriate
Global equity managers are generally structurally underweight GEM• Where global managers do invest in GEM it tends to be a narrow universe of the biggest, most liquid
names in the asset class
Industry structural drivers that are common in GEM are simply not present in DM
All asset class returns may be lower going forward
Cannot afford to miss out on long term return opportunities where they are available
Why invest directly in GEM?
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GEM Fund upside (weighted average) and PE
0.0%
22.5%
45.0%
67.5%
90.0%
112.5%
0.0
4.5
9.0
13.5
18.0
22.5
11-O
ct-1
011
-Nov
-10
14-D
ec-1
017
-Jan
-11
15-F
eb-1
122
-Mar
-11
26-A
pr-1
130
-May
-11
4-Ju
l-11
8-A
ug-1
112
-Sep
t-11
17-O
ct-1
121
-Nov
-11
3-Ja
n-12
6-F
eb-1
212
-Mar
-12
16-A
pr-1
221
-May
-12
25-J
un-1
230
-Jul
-12
3-S
ept-
128-
Oct
-12
13-N
ov-1
214
-Dec
-12
22-J
an-1
325
-Feb
-13
2-A
pr-1
36-
May
-13
6-Ju
n-13
8-Ju
l-13
12-A
ug-1
316
-Sep
t-13
17-O
ct-1
318
-Nov
-13
20-D
ec-1
33-
Feb
-14
10-M
ar-1
414
-Apr
-14
19-M
ay-1
423
-Jun
-14
28-J
ul-1
41-
Sep
t-14
6-O
ct-1
410
-Nov
-14
15-D
ec-1
426
-Jan
-15
2-M
ar-1
57-
Apr
-15
11-M
ay-1
517
-Jun
-15
20-J
ul-1
5
Ave P/E (left)Ave Upside (right)
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GEM share of world GDP is up from 35% in 1993 to 50% today
FX reserves in EM were half of DM in 2000, they are now double that of DM
There has been (and will continue to be) improvement in economic situations
• E.g. Brazil Debt/GDP is half what it was in 2002
Foreign direct investment into GEM has increased 10 fold from 2005 to 2014
• This is 30% faster than in DM
While EM companies represented 5% of the Fortune Global 500 from 1980 to 2000, they are now 26%
Set backs currently experienced resulting from rising US rates, shrinking commodity demand and a slowing global economy are normal and have been witnessed in most economies over time
GEM has survived two massive crises in the recent past: Asian crisis of 1998 and the GFC of 2008 and come out of each stronger
GEM will learn from this crisis and emerge stronger, and increasingly relevant
GEM will remain relevant
Source - http://foreignpolicy.com/2015/08/31/what-future-for-emerging-markets/
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SA vs. GEM• GEM is a very different investment set from SA
• SA has also provided great long term returns despite volatility
DM vs. EM valuations• Upside to fair value on most stocks in our GEM coverage list far exceeds that in DM
“Hot money” is fleeing EMs• These investors were never making long term allocations
• “Smart money” should not be influenced by the actions of “quick money”
Market performance vs. economic performance & company performance• Dislocation between company performance and macroeconomic environment
• Recessions are often good for businesses over the long term� Weaker players exit => reduces excess capacity� Market share increases for the remainder
• Stock markets move out of sync with economic performance� Don’t disinvest when (macro) times are tough� Don’t invest only when times are good� A long term, through the cycle allocation is appropriate� Size of allocation depends on valuations, which are very attractive today
Some final points to consider
SA macro concerns
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Low commodity prices and sluggish growth in trading partners undermining exports
Reserve Bank intent on normalizing interest rates but in the weak economy a very mild cycle anticipated
Lower oil has taken some pressure off inflation
Combination of rising interest rates and a sluggish economy not good for already highly rated domestic equities
Global environment a headwind, but we have added to our woes by scoring own goals:
• Eskom – big blow to confidence and growth
• The visa debacle
• Poor fiscal discipline
• Corruption and wasteful spending at SOE’s
Downward commodity cycle and own goals
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Eskom
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The visa debacle
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Undisciplined government spending
Source: Prescient Securities(data from WEO database and the NT Budget Review)
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Sorry saga at the SOE’s
SA equities
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Our exposure to domestic equities is low across all balanced funds on valuation grounds
Massive divergence continues• Resources has sold off dramatically
• Bid for SAB at very high multiple
Corporate action in the platinum sector encouraging
Banks relatively attractive
More SA companies looking to expand off-shore• Mediclinic, Truworths, Foschini, Brait, Woolworths, Steinhoff among the more recent movers
JSE listed global stocks such as Naspers, Richemont, MTN, Steinhoff and British American Tobacco continues to offer the SA investor much needed geographic diversification and offers reasonable value
SA Equities
43
ALSI surprisingly resilient
Source: I-net
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But resources hammered
Source: I-net
Company30-Jun-08 31-Jul-15 Price
movePrice Price
Anglo American 548.00 159.87 -71%
Exxaro 144.45 74.91 -48%
Impala 309.00 45.51 -85%
SAB 178.05 661.48 272%
Truworths 22.95 85.55 273%
Bidvest 98.38 307.90 213%
AVI 12.95 79.80 516%
Mr Price 15.00 252.20 1581%
Spar 49.50 197.87 300%
Relative performanceResources versus industrials
Source: I-Net
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Relative performanceResources vs. FINDI
Source: I-Net
Commodities & the miners
JSE classification shows basic materials as 28% in Top 20 and 23% in Equity
9% / 6% is Mondi which is anything but a typical resource company
19% / 17% in ‘traditional’ resource companies
On a look through basis roughly half of this is SA based mines and the rest is outside of SA
Predominantly exposed to diversified miners and Platinum
Lower risk commodities with less ‘China’ risk
Exposure to the miners
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Setting the sceneSupercycle and aftermath
Up 900%
-75%
Source: I-Net Bridge
49
50
Chinese consumption of raw materials
Source: www.visualcapitalist.com
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The current outlook for commodity demand is weak across the board• Weakness in China, the major engine of demand growth
• Rest of the world struggling too
• Longer term threats of electric vehicles and renewable energy gaining traction
Most commodities are in oversupply (still growing or not closing quickly enough)• Barriers to exit is likely to keep supply in the market for longer than expected
• Last supercycle projects still being delivered
• Governments often support loss-making industries to protect jobs
Earnings have already collapsed and at spot prices most commodity companies are under increasing pressure and earnings and cash flows will be low
Despite this, we believe the valuations of the mining companies are attractive enough to warrant a reasonable position in our funds
• We prefer commodities where supply growth will be more muted in the long-term� Platinum, copper, diamonds
• We prefer companies with high quality, low cost, long life assets� Impala and Northam� Anglo American� Sasol
Resources sector view
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Earnings are low and heading lower
Price-to-earnings ratios
Historic Spot Normal
I-net Coronation estimate Coronation estimate
Anglo American 51.1 1427 5.3
Exxaro 6.7 9.2 5.2
Impala 115.4 Neg 3.1
BHP Billiton 15.6 34.9 11.9
Glencore 21.3 137 4.4
Northam -15.4 Neg 3.8
Amplats 22.6 Neg 6.0
Sasol 8.7 11.2 8.2
… but long-term valuation looks compelling
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Returns and valuations at multi decade lows
From already low levels we have seen further severe weakness
Since June Rand basket down 15%
Significant implications for miners
Collapse in PGM prices
54
Source: I-net
55
45% of industry production unable to cover cash costs
70% of industry production unable to cover cash costs + sustaining capex
Only mines viable at these prices are
• Amplat’s open pit Mogalakwena (needs more capex)
• Zimbabwe – comes with its own specific set of challenges (ownership, taxes) etc.
Logical response: cut loss making production
Seen some of this already:
• Amplats: 400k oz. at Rustenburg and Union
• Lonmin: 100k oz.
Barriers to exit in the industry are high:
• Reducing labour incredibly difficult
• Overheads spread over a smaller production base � increasing unit costs
Consequences are severe
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General commodity sell-off
Concerns about areas of China slowdown specific to PGMs
• Platinum: jewellery demand
• Palladium: auto sales
Anti-diesel lobby in Europe
Concerns about growth in recycling
Concerns about changes in drivetrain technology:
• Battery electric vehicles
Concerns about changes in vehicle ownership patterns and replacement cycle:
• UBER
• Ride-sharing
What is causing the rout?
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SA and Zimbabwe have 55% of global supply of PGMs
Autocats absorb 45% of Platinum and 80% of Palladium... tightening emission controls a positive
30% of Platinum goes into jewellery
• Predominantly China where increasing wealth levels and rise of middle income consumer are long term drivers
PGMs less dependent on China than most base metals
PGMs have some attractive fundamental drivers
58
Trading on PE’s of 5-6x normal earnings
Trading at discount to replacement cost:• Cost to build 1 vertical shaft + concentrator on Western Bushveld: R11 - R13bn
• The majors operate many shaft complexes
• Yet trade at market caps way below the cost to replicate their infrastructure:� Lonmin: R3bn� Northam: R17bn� Implats: R30bn
Compelling valuation
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Bonds • Excessively low and even negative bond yields for low risk sovereigns offer no value
• Domestic bonds offer relatively far better value
• Corporate debt preferred to government debt
Equities• Global (fairly valued) preferred to domestic (expensive)
• Within global equities EM’s certainly cheaper but with clearly higher risk
Property• On a bottom-up view we find some value in selected counters but in general the very low bond yields
have pushed global property yields too low
• Domestic property has likewise run hard but in a low yield world and relative to very pricey equities offers reasonable value
Current asset allocation view
Return expectations
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Expected asset class returns
as at 31 July 2015
Last 10 years (ZAR)
10 year forecast (ZAR)
Local equity 17.2% 7 – 10%
Global equity 14.1% 10 – 13%
Local property 20.4% 7 - 10%
Local bonds 8.2% 6 – 9%
Global bonds 10.5% 5 - 7%
Cash 7.5% 6 – 8%
Inflation 6.2% 6% +
Asset allocation is the most important decision you make in investments
Above table shows importance of alpha generation in achieving targeted return
Big difference between rear-view
mirror and windscreen
23
Alpha much more valuable in lower return environment
Increase in purchasing power over n years at different real return rates
“The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function”
- Albert A. Bartlett
Real return: 0.5% 1.5% 2.5% 3.5% 4.5% 10%
n = 10 years 0.05 X 0.15 X 0.26 X 0.38 X 0.52 X 1.46 X
n = 30 years 0.15 X 0.52 X 1.01 X 1.65 X 2.48 X 13.95 X
Outlook and conclusion
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Commodities near the end of the down cycle as evidenced by many loss making producers
GEM currencies (tougher to call) have experienced a big cycle already• There could be even more pain, but its difficult to argue the pain has just started
Developed world stocks trade around fair value
GEM stock markets have had a deep down cycle, now offering far more upside than downside
SA stock market has held up quite well. Many high quality stocks trading at very high multiples in a low growth economy. Downside risk not to be ignored
The lower return world we have warned about repeatedly is here
Most upside can be found in bombed out cyclical sectors, but uncertainty around global and domestic growth limits our appetite for these stocks
Investment outlookWhere are we in the cycle?
Sticking to our knitting…
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“Investment risk resides most where it is least perceived, and vice versa. When
everyone believes something is risky, the unwillingness to buy usually reduces its price to the point where it is not risky at
all. Broadly negative opinion can make it the least risky thing, since all optimism has been driven from the price… When everyone believes something embodies no risk, they usually bid it up to the point where it’s enormously risky. As no risk is
feared, no reward for risk bearing is demanded or provided. That can make
the thing that is most esteemed the riskiest”
- Howard Marks, Oaktree
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