Copyright Julian Birkinshaw 2015 The Future of Management Julian Birkinshaw Professor of Strategy & Entrepreneurship Director of the Deloitte Institute.

Copyright Julian Birkinshaw 2015Copyright Julian Birkinshaw 2015

The Future of Management

Julian BirkinshawProfessor of Strategy & Entrepreneurship

Director of the Deloitte Institute London Business School

Copyright Julian Birkinshaw 2015

Credit Default SwapsProcessor speed (MIPS)Processing power/$Number of internet hostsData transmission speedsCost of bandwidth

(bits/second/$) Number of genes sequencedAstronomical data collected

The Accelerating Change hypothesis


Ray Kurzweil


The creative destruction hypothesis

“INDUSTRIAL AGE”

“INFORMATION AGE”

1980 2000196019401920

?


The Information Age: Capital and labour no longer scarce resources

Efficiency driving out effectivene

ss

Productivity driving

out motivation

CAPITAL

LABOUR

INFORMATION

KNOWLEDGE


What lies beyond?

“INDUSTRIAL AGE”

“INFORMATION AGE”

“POST INFORMATION

AGE”

1980 2000 2020196019401920

?


Brief table discussion

What would be the warning signs that the “information age” was coming to an end?

a) What does a business world with too much information look like? What problems does that create? How might we overcome those problems?

b) And what does a business world with too much emphasis on knowledge look like? What problems does that create? How might we overcome those problems?



Problems with Big Data Analytics

Overly precis

e

Lacking in context

An answer in search of a question

42


Transitioning beyond the information age

Too much information

creates deficit of attention

Overemphasis on logic leads

to sterile decision making

INFORMATION

KNOWLEDGE

DECISIVE ACTION

EMOTIONAL CONVICTION


The changing source of advantage

INDUSTRIAL AGE

Labour Capital

INFORMATION AGE

InformationKnowledge

“AGILE AGE”

ActionConviction


How should your organisation respond to these changes?

• Fight complexity with complexity


Benefits of creating a complex organisation structure

Formal rules and procedures

create efficiency

People are given roles according

to expertise

Favouritism is eliminated


Costs of creating a complex organisation structure

Risk averse

Slow moving

Disempowering

Internally focused


How should your organisation respond to these changes?

• Fight complexity with complexity

• Fight complexity with simplicity


Simpler structures can be more powerful


What is the ‘management model’ of the future?


So, what do you do for a living?


Three ways of describing yourself in the workplace

Your

formal

position

What

you

know

What you

do


Three different organising models

People motivated by…

Decisions made through…

By Rules

Hierarchy

Extrinsic Rewards

Coordination achieved…



Around Opportunity

Experimentation

Achievement


BureaucracyPosition is privileged

AdhocracyAction is privileged



Mutual Adjustment

Logical Argument

Personal Mastery


MeritocracyKnowledge is

privileged


Opportunity-focused coordination


Experimental decision-making

Eight monthsNine partners<$1m budget

“We are making decisions on the fly, very

aggressively. But they are informed decisions. The purpose is to get to the

next stage as effectively as possible; and once there, the next target

becomes visible”


INDUSTRIAL AGE

Emphasis on productivity

and efficiency

BUREAUCRACY

INFORMATION AGE

Emphasis on rational

analysis and expertise

MERITOCRACY

‘AGILE’ AGE

Emphasis on agility, intuition, and decisiveness

ADHOCRACY

Shifting emphasis over time


Brief table discussion

Which model(s) are you using with today? And which would you like to be using?



By Rules

Hierarchy

Extrinsic Rewards




Around Opportunity

Experimentation

Achievement


BureaucracyPosition is privileged

AdhocracyAction is privileged



Mutual Adjustment

Logical Argument

Personal Mastery


MeritocracyKnowledge is

privileged


Adhocracy at a personal level


Men’s world high-jump record

2.5

5m

2.4

5m

2.3

5m

2.2

5m

2.1

5m

2.0

5m

1.9

5m

1900 1920 1940 19601980 2000


John Thomas vs. Valeriy Brumel

2.5

5m

2.4

5m

2.3

5m

2.2

5m

2.1

5m

2.0

5m

1.9

5m

1900 1920 1940 19601980 2000


Dick Fosbury: Mexico Olympics Gold

2.5

5m

2.4

5m

2.3

5m

2.2

5m

2.1

5m

2.0

5m

1.9

5m

1900 1920 1940 19601980 2000

Olympics


Three waves of innovation in the high jumping industry

2.5

5m

2.4

5m

2.3

5m

2.2

5m

2.1

5m

2.0

5m

1.9

5m

1900 1920 1940 19601980 2000

The Fosbury Flop

The Straddle Jump

The Western Roll


in praise of “unreasonable” people

The “Hyperloop”


INDUSTRIAL AGE

BUREAUCRACY

Leadership is about

monitoring and controlling

INFORMATION AGE

MERITOCRACY

Leadership is about

expertise and information

flow

“AGILE” AGE

ADHOCRACY

Leadership is about enabling

experimentation, making an emotional connection

Copyright Julian Birkinshaw 2015 The Future of Management Julian Birkinshaw Professor of Strategy & Entrepreneurship Director of the Deloitte Institute.

Documents

complexity fight complexity

information agetoo

business world

engine of change

pace of change

potent forces of change

labor displacement synapse

contextan answer