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Slide 1
Copyright 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice
Hall Day 15
Slide 2
Copyright 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice
Hall Ch 1 -2 Agenda Questions? IP Part 3 (Risk Management)
Incomplete (Still) IP Part 4 Due Nov 4 (Changed from original date)
Cost estimates and budget Assignment 5 Corrected 3 As and 1 B
Assignment 6 Posted Due Nov 4 No Class on Oct 31 Use class time for
Group Work Exam 2 will be on Nov. 7 Chaps 6-9, 20 M/c and 4 short
essays No Class On Nov. 11 Veterans Day. Begin Project
Scheduling
Slide 3
Copyright 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice
Hall Finals Rescheduling Options Do IP Project presentation on Dec
12 Exam 3 done asynchronously sometime during finals week Do both
presentation and exam 3 Wednesday, Dec 18 (any time) Thursday, Dec
19 after 2PM Friday, Dec 20 (any time) 3
Slide 4
Copyright 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice
Hall Assignment 5 The Bean Counter and the Cowboy De Havilland
Falling Comet 4
Slide 5
Copyright 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice
Hall Project Scheduling: Networks, Duration Estimation, and
Critical Path 09-05
Slide 6
Copyright 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice
Hall Chapter 9 Learning Objectives After completing this chapter,
students will be able to: Understand and apply key scheduling
terminology. Apply the logic used to create activity networks,
including predecessor and successor tasks. Develop an activity
network using Activity-on- Node (AON) techniques. Perform activity
duration estimation based on the use of probabilistic estimating
techniques. 09-06
Slide 7
Copyright 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice
Hall Chapter 9 Learning Objectives After completing this chapter,
students will be able to: Construct the critical path for a project
schedule network using forward and backward passes. Identify
activity float and the manner in which it is determined. Calculate
the probability of a project finishing on time under PERT
estimates. Understand the steps that can be employed to reduce the
critical path. 09-07
Slide 8
9-8
Slide 9
Copyright 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice
Hall Project Scheduling Project scheduling requires us to follow
some carefully laid-out steps, in order, for the schedule to take
shape. Project planning, as it relates to the scheduling process,
has been defined by the PMBoK as: The identification of the project
objectives and the ordered activity necessary to complete the
project including the identification of resource types and
quantities required to carry out each activity or task. 09-09
Slide 10
Copyright 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice
Hall Project Scheduling Terms Successors Predecessors Network
diagram Serial activities Concurrent activities E D C B A F
09-010
Slide 11
Copyright 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice
Hall Project Scheduling Terms E D C B A F Merge activities Burst
activities Node Path Critical Path 09-011
Slide 12
Copyright 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice
Hall Writing a paper Writing a research paper Identify Topic
Research Paper Write First Draft Edit and rewrite paper Prepare
Class presentation Complete Final Draft Complete presentation
Hand-in paper and present topic in class Can this process be
completed differently if assigned as group work? 9-12
Slide 13
9-13
Slide 14
Copyright 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice
Hall AOA Versus AON The same mini-project is shown with activities
on arc C E D B F E C D B F and activities on node. 09-014
Slide 15
Copyright 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice
Hall Node Labels Early Start Activity Float Activity Descriptor
Late Start ID Number Activity DurationLate Finish Early Finish
09-15
Slide 16
Copyright 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice
Hall 9-16 Node Labels Early Start Activity Float Activity
Descriptor Late Start ID Number Activity Duration Late Finish Early
Finish Basic math ES + DUR = EF LF - DUR = LS LS ES = AF
Slide 17
Copyright 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice
Hall FIGURE 9.4 Activity Node Labels Using MS Project 2010 09-17
Copyright 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice
Hall
Slide 18
FIGURE 9.5 Serial Activities Serial activities are those that
flow from one to the next, in sequence. 09-18 Copyright 2013
Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall
Slide 19
FIGURE 9.6 Activities Linked in Parallel (Concurrent) 09-19
Copyright 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall
When the nature of the work allows for more than one activity to be
accomplished at the same time, these activities are called
concurrent and parallel project paths are constructed through the
network.
Slide 20
Copyright 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice
Hall FIGURE 9.7 Merge Activity 09-20 Copyright 2013 Pearson
Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall
Slide 21
FIGURE 9.8 Burst Activity Copyright 2013 Pearson Education,
Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall 09-21
Slide 22
Copyright 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice
Hall FIGURE 9.10 Complete Activity Network Copyright 2013 Pearson
Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall 09-22
Slide 23
Copyright 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice
Hall FIGURE 9.11 Developing the Activity Network Using MS Project
2010 09-23 Copyright 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as
Prentice Hall 9.11.mpp
Slide 24
Copyright 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice
Hall 9-24 CPM versus PERT PERT was developed by US Navy in the
1950s CPM was developed by Remington Rand and DuPont around the
same time. Only difference is in durations estimating Pert uses 3
cases Most optimistic, most pessimistic and most likely and
determines probability for each D o P o + D p O p +D e P e = final
duration CPM use only the most likely duration
Slide 25
Copyright 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice
Hall 9-25 Duration Estimating Duration the elapsed time from the
start of an activity until it is finished Effort -- the actual time
spent on the project Example Tony work on a project task for 20
hours at 4 hours per day starting Monday mourning. The project task
was completed Late Friday Effort 20 hours Duration 5 days
Slide 26
Copyright 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice
Hall 9-26 Techniques for Estimating Duration Experience Historical
data Research Modeling Experiments Breakdown/roll-up Delphi Method
Panel of experts Consultants Three outside Estimates Ranging Other
techniques From Text 1)Experience 2)Expert opinion 3)Mathematical
Derivation
Slide 27
Duration Estimation Methods Past experience Expert opinion
Mathematical derivation Beta distribution Most likely (m) Most
pessimistic (b) Most optimistic (a) Copyright 2013 Pearson
Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall 09-27
Slide 28
FIGURE 9.14 Symmetrical (Normal) Distribution for Activity
Duration Estimation Copyright 2013 Pearson Education, Inc.
Publishing as Prentice Hall 09-28
Slide 29
FIGURE 9.15 Asymmetrical (Beta) Distribution for Activity
Duration Estimation Copyright 2013 Pearson Education, Inc.
Publishing as Prentice Hall 09-29
Slide 30
Copyright 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice
Hall Activity Duration and Variance 09-30 Copyright 2013 Pearson
Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Table 9.2
Slide 31
Copyright 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice
Hall 9-31 TaskPredecessoramb Z--7815 YZ131619 XZ141822 WY, X121416
VW1413 TW6814 ST, V111419 1.Sketch the network described in the
table. 2.Determine the expected duration and variance of each
activity. Duration estimate.xlsDuration estimate.xls, Duration
estimate.mppDuration estimate.mpp
Slide 32
Copyright 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice
Hall Constructing the Critical Path Forward pass an additive move
through the network from start to finish Backward pass a
subtractive move through the network from finish to start Critical
path the longest path from end to end which determines the shortest
project length 09-32
Slide 33
Copyright 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice
Hall Rules for Forward/Backward Pass Forward Pass Rules (ES &
EF) ES + Duration = EF EF of predecessor = ES of successor Largest
preceding EF at a merge point becomes EF for successor Backward
Pass Rules (LS & LF) LF Duration = LS LS of successor = LF of
predecessor Smallest succeeding LS at a burst point becomes LF for
predecessor 09-33
Slide 34
Copyright 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice
Hall Project Delta Information 09-34 Copyright 2013 Pearson
Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Table 9.4
Slide 35
FIGURE 9.16 Partial Project Activity Network with Task
Durations Copyright 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as
Prentice Hall 09-35
Slide 36
FIGURE 9.18 Activity Network with Forward Pass 09-36 Copyright
2013 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall
Slide 37
FIGURE 9.19 Activity Network with Backward Pass 09-37 Copyright
2013 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall
Slide 38
FIGURE 9.20 Project Network with Activity Slack and Critical
Path Note: Critical path is indicated with bold arrows. 09-38
Copyright 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice
Hall
Slide 39
FIGURE 9.24 AON Network with Laddering Effect 09-39 Copyright
2013 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall
Slide 40
Laddering Activities Project ABC can be completed more
efficiently if subtasks are used A(3)B(6)C(9) ABC=18 days Laddered
ABC=12 days A 1 (1)A 2 (1)A 3 (1) B 1 (2)B 2 (2)B 3 (2) C 1 (3)C 2
(3)C 3 (3) 09-40
Slide 41
Copyright 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice
Hall FIGURE 9.25 Example of a Hammock Activity 09-41 Copyright 2013
Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall
Slide 42
Reducing the Critical Path Eliminate tasks on the CP Convert
serial paths to parallel when possible Overlap sequential tasks
Shorten the duration on critical path tasks Shorten early tasks
longest tasks easiest tasks tasks that cost the least to speed up
09-42
Slide 43
Copyright 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice
Hall Summary 1. Understand and apply key scheduling terminology. 2.
Apply the logic used to create activity networks, including
predecessor and successor tasks. 3. Develop an activity network
using Activity-on- Node (AON) techniques. 4. Perform activity
duration estimation based on the use of probabilistic estimating
techniques. 09-43
Slide 44
Copyright 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice
Hall Summary 5. Construct the critical path for a project schedule
network using forward and backward passes. 6. Identify activity
float and the manner in which it is determined. 7. Calculate the
probability of a project finishing on time under PERT estimates. 8.
Understand the steps that can be employed to reduce the critical
path. 09-44
Slide 45
Copyright 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice
Hall 09-45