Copyright © 2010 IHS Global limited. All Rights Reserved. The Source for Maritime Information and Insight Copyright © 2008 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 1
Jan 13, 2016
Copyright © 2010 IHS Global limited. All Rights Reserved.
The Source for Maritime Information and Insight
Copyright © 2008 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 1
OPTIMAR:OPTIMAR:Benchmarking strategic Benchmarking strategic optioptions for ons for European shipping and for the European European shipping and for the European marmaritime transport system in the horizon itime transport system in the horizon 2008-2018 2008-2018
Christopher Pålsson Niklas Bengtsson
Director Senior Consultant
June, 2010
Copyright © 2010 IHS Global limited. All Rights Reserved.
The OPTIMAR Project
• Analysis of the European maritime industry• Shipping• Ports• Maritime related industry and maritime administrations
• Identification of drivers for change
• SWOT analysis
• Scenarios
• Strategic recommendations
• 2010 update
Copyright © 2010 IHS Global limited. All Rights Reserved.
Global Redesign: rebalance of GDP
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Worl
d G
DP
, bil
lion
20
05
US
$
Rest of World
Brazil
India
China
J apan
EU
United States
Forecast
2010 GDP larger than 2008 GDP
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GDP development in influential non-EU countries
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Rea
l GD
P an
nual
per
cent
chan
ge
China
Russia
United States
Source: IHS Global Insight
Forecast
Copyright © 2010 IHS Global limited. All Rights Reserved.
Real GDP development in major EU15 countries
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Rea
l GD
P an
nual
per
cent
chan
ge
Spain
United Kingdom
Germany
France
Italy
Source: IHS Global Insight
Forecast
Copyright © 2010 IHS Global limited. All Rights Reserved.
Real GDP development is some previously high growth EU27 countries
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Rea
l GD
P an
nual
per
cent
chan
ge
Latvia
Estonia
Lithuania
Romania
Poland
Slovakia
Source: IHS Global Insight
Forecast
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World Trade:Pushed Two Years
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Worl
d E
xport
s, b
illi
on
ton
nes
Rest of World
Brazil
India
China
J apan
EU
United States
-7%
Forecast
2010 trade almost equal with trade in 2008
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Cargo Tonnes in EU 27 Ports 2008
1,042
732
335
350
525
266
340
342
0 500 1,000 1,500
Liquid Bulk
Dry Bulk
Containers
GC & roro
Million tonnes 2008Source: Eurostat
Inward to a EU 27 portOutward from a EU 27 port
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Cargo Tonnes in EU 27 PortsIndex 2004=100
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Volu
me
deve
lopm
ent i
n EU
27
port
s, in
dex
Liquid Bulk Dry Bulk Containers GC & roro
Source: Eurostat
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Total world fleet development from 1976 and onwards, gt
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020
Tota
l Wo
rld fl
ee
t, m
illio
n g
t, 1
97
6-
Service
Offshore
Yacht
Cruise
Ferry
Roro
Vehicle
Container
Other Dry
General Cargo
Bulker
Other Tanker
LNG
LPG
Chemical Tanker
Oil Tanker
2010-05
Forecast
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World Fleet by Flagpercent share based on gross tonnes
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
Tota
l Wor
ld fl
eet b
y fla
g re
gist
er, p
erce
nt o
f gt
Mid East
Other Asia
Singapore
Japan
China
Rest Of World
Liberia
Marshall Islands
Bahamas
Panama
Other Americas
USA
Other Europe
Norway
Other EU27
Germany
Italy
United Kingdom
Malta
Cyprus
Greece
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World Fleet by Country of Ownerpercent share based on gross tonnes
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
Tota
l Wor
ld fl
eet b
y ow
ner c
ount
ry, s
hare
of g
t
Unknown
Rest of World
Mid East
Other Asia
South Korea
Singapore
Japan
China
Other Americas
Bermuda
Canada
USA
Other Europe
Switzerland
Norway
Other EU27
Italy
Germany
Denmark
UK
Greece
14%13%
4%
9%
9%
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Recommendations Facilitating Seaborne Trade
• External relations – 1. WTO, 2. Multilateral agr.
• Port infra-structure – fast track
• Competition in ports – port package
• Short sea shipping• Preserving smaller ports
• Maritime space without barriers
• ICT – global standards
• Transport policy – research programme
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Recommendations creating a Sustainable Future for Industry and Environment
• IMO – Ratification based on ownership (DOC) + One voice
• Safety & Security• Uniform interpretation of rules• Regulations perused and compliance controlled – ongoing task
• Transition to sustainability – continued research efforts
• State aid• Short term there is no need to revisit current schemes • Ahead the industry specific treatment should be questioned.
• Availability and quality of crew• Coordinate and support campaigns. • Support for apprenticeship