Copyright 2009 IDC. Reproduction is forbidden unless authorized. All rights reserved. David Senf, Director Infrastructure Solutions Group idc.com November.

Copyright 2009 IDC. Reproduction is forbidden unless authorized. All rights reserved.

David Senf, Director Infrastructure Solutions Groupidc.comNovember 24, 2009

Changing Face of Virtualization

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GDPGDP ProfitsProfits

Un-Un-employmentemployment

-2.4% -33.8%

8.4%

2009

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Yet another forecast

Source: IDC Market Models

2009 Growth Rates by Category

-15.00%

-10.00%

-5.00%

0.00%

5.00%

10.00%

PCs Servers Storage Networking OtherHardware

Services Software Telecom

2009 2010

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IT conundrum – tradeoffs inevitable

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The Big Switch – Nicholas Carr

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The Big Switch – Nicholas Carr

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The Big Switch – Nicholas Carr

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“capacity=demand”

The Big Switch – Nicholas Carr

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So where are we now?

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Utilization & Maintain

Real Estate

++++ Power & Cooling

Admin

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0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

20052006200720082009201020112012

$M

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Power and Cooling Avoidance % Saving

Cost avoidance through virtualization

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OpexCapex

Virtualization by the numbers Top Savings

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Server HW Simplifiedmgmt

Power andcooling

Staff time Real estate Softwarelicensingsavings

Staffreduction

25% cost reductionover 12 months

across capex and opex

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Business case development

Half of firms create formal business case to justify virtualization investments. As for the rest....

“I figured I had saved about $1.5M...[in] hardware costs... I didn’t go into a lot of the intangibles...”

-Pharmaceutical

“If I go to my CFO, he wants to see a couple of pieces of data, not a hundred.”

- Manufacturing

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Server build decisions

Suggest virtual servers57%

Hardwarecentric11%

N=400

Virtualdefault

32%

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How did we get here?

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0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

900,000

1,000,000

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Server capability and density soars – virtualization gets a leg up

Annual Cores Shipped

Annual CPUs Shipped

1 ap

p/s

erve

r

1 ap

p/b

lad

e

1 ap

p/C

PU

1 ap

p/c

ore

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Sprawling Server InfrastructureOperational Costs Rise Dramatically

WW Spending on Servers, Power and Cooling, and Management/Administration

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New Economic Model for the Datacenter Shifts to Automation Tools are a Requirement

WW Spending on Servers, Power and Cooling, and Management/Administration

Virtualization Management Gap

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Zero sum game?“If we had not virtualized the number of servers would be significantly greater...Our carbon footprint would be greater…

We are spending less as a whole.”- Financial Services

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New Economic Model for the Datacenter Shifts to Automation Tools are a Requirement

WW Spending on Servers, Power and Cooling, and Management/Administration

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Considerations

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Few VMs Profile

• IT-centric• Virtualize for hardware

savings• Low ITIL use• Resource mgmt• Lack of visibility• Manual processes• Physical & virtual tools / mgmt

separate• Lower VM / server rate

(e.g., 5/server)

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Many VMs Profile

• Business-centric• Virtualize for competitive

advantage• High ITIL use• DR/HA• Resource monitoring /

measurement• Automate processes • Physical & virtual tools / mgmt

integrated• Higher VM / server rate

(e.g., 25/server)

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Virtual machine adoption hurdles – past

TimeInst.Resistance

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Cost/Budget

Tools

Virtual machine adoption hurdles – present

ExpertiseAvailabilityCapacity

Planning

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5 things on order

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1

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From noun to verb

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The Next Virtualization Milestones

Virtualization 1.0 Encapsulation Resource sharing Dynamic consolidation

Virtualization 3.0 Automation Service oriented Policy based “Cloud” Computing Variable costs

CAPEX

Operatio

nal Cost R

eduction

Virtualization 2.5 Unplanned HA/DR/back-up Workload balancing Virtual Clients

Virtualization 2.0 Mobility Planned downtime Virtual Clients

2013

Production Consolidation

24%

Availability39%

Virtual Clients15%

SW Development & Test 6%

Utility Computing16%

2006

Production Consolidation

49%

Utility Computing1%

Availability

11%

SW Development & Test

36%

Virtual Clients3%

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Virtualization has lots of head room

Virtual PhysicalServer Type

Low HighBusiness Critical

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

App Dev Web App ITInfrastructure

DB/DW Email / msgng ERP/CRM/

Virtualized

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2

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The good, the bad and the ugly

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Server Virtualization Impact:

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

3.0 3.3 4.35.4

6.3

7.0

7.6

8.0 VM Densities Nearly Triple

Cross Over

5%Shipments

20%Shipments

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Virtualization Machine MovementMobility is on the Rise

VM Movement FrequencyVM Mobility Management • 80% report moving virtual machines across physical hardware

• 60% report using automation tools

• This highlights the evolution of virtualization and the desire to exploit increased functionality

• Illustrates movement towards more dynamic & flexible IT environment

Don’t Move VMs

Move VMsManually

Move VMsUsing Policy Tools

Move VMsManually &Using Tools

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VM tools features we desire

17

21

22

22

26

26

27

32

42

44

47

56

Analysis/Troubleshooting

Deployment/Redeployment

Optimization

Capacity Planning

High Availability/Failover

Health Monitoring

Power Management

Load Balancing

Disaster Recovery

Security

Maintenance

Systems Backup

N=297: QC01MR. Which of the following systems management features or tools are you currently using to support your virtual servers? Please select all that apply.

1st wave

2nd wave

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3

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Action not reaction

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N=255

Which of the following describes your organization’s business continuity planning status?

DR plan? What DR plan?

30%

25%12%

33%

We have a plan that is regularly tested

We have a plan,but it is not

regularly tested

Have no plan

Have anad hoc

plan

I think one area specifically that [virtualization] has changed is our ability to provide a better level of service [for] our DR and BCP. - Financial Services

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Dial it up – ITIL?

12%in

2006

Process automation evolves on a scale from anti-inflammatory early on, to steroid down the road

23%in

2008

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4

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Resistance is futile

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0

2,000,000

4,000,000

6,000,000

8,000,000

10,000,000

12,000,000

14,000,000

16,000,000

1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009

Total PCs installed in Canada from 1985 - 2009

50% of Canadian Firms Use & Plan to Use

Desktop Virtualization

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PC Total Cost of Ownership (TCO)Opex makes up the bulk of spending

Q: What is the average breakdown of your PC expenditure?

Source IDC Virtualization Forum

• Deploy, Support, Train

• Operations

• Administration

• Hardware &Software

60%10%

7%

23%

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5

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Cloud?

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Words Canadians use to describe cloud.....

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Please contact me at:

David SenfDirector, Infrastructure [email protected]

http://twitter.com/Senformation

Questions or comments