Copyright © 2006 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. Chapter 6 Population Growth and Economic Development: Causes, Consequences, and Controversies.

Copyright © 2006 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved.

Chapter 6

Population Growth and Economic Development: Causes, Consequences, and Controversies

Copyright © 2006 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 6-2

The Basic Issue: Population Growth and Quality of Life

Six major issues:– Will developing countries be able to improve

levels of living given anticipated population growth?

– How will developing countries deal with the vast increases in their labor forces?

– How will higher population growth rates affect poverty?


The Basic Issue: Population Growth and Quality of Life

Six major issues (cont’d):– Will developing countries be able to extend the

coverage and improve the quality of health care and education in the face of rapid population growth?

– Is there a relationship between poverty and family size?

– How does affluence in the developed world affect the ability of developing countries to provide for their people?


A Review of the Numbers: Population Growth—Past, Present, and Future

World population growth through history


Table 6.1


Figure 6.1a


Figure 6.1b


Table 6.2



A brief history of human population growth Structure of the world’s population

– Geographic region


Figure 6.2


Table 6.3


Figure 6.3




– Geographic region– Fertility and mortality trends


Figure 6.4


Table 6.4


Table 6.5




– Geographic region– Fertility and mortality trends– Age structure and dependency burdens



A brief history of human population growth Structure of the world’s population The hidden momentum of population growth


Figure 6.5


Figure 6.6


The Demographic Transition

Stage I: High birthrates and death rates Stage II: Continued high birthrates, declining

death rates Stage III: Falling birthrates and death rates,

eventually stabilizing


Figure 6.7


Figure 6.8


The Causes of High Fertility in Developing Countries: The Malthusian Model

The Malthusian population trap


Figure 6.9


The Causes of High Fertility in Developing Countries: The Malthusian Model

The Malthusian population trap Criticisms of the Malthusian model


Figure 6.10


Figure 6.11


The Causes of High Fertility in Developing Countries: The Household Model

The microeconomic household theory of fertility


Demand for Children Equation

nxtPPYfC xxcd ,...,1),,,,( Where

Cd is the demand for surviving childrenY is the level of household incomePc is the “net” price of childrenPx is price of all other goodstx is the tastes for goods relative to children


Demand for Children Equation

nxtPPYfC xxcd ,...,1),,,,(

0Y

Cd

0

c

d

P

C

0

x

d

P

C

0

x

d

t

C

Under neoclassical conditions, we would expect:


Figure 6.12


The Causes of High Fertility in Developing Countries: The Household Model

The microeconomic household theory of fertility

The demand for children in developing countries

Some empirical evidence Implications for development and fertility


The Consequences of High Fertility: Some Conflicting Opinions

Population growth isn’t a real problem Overpopulation is a deliberately contrived false

issue Population growth is a desirable phenomenon Population growth is a real problem The empirical argument: the negative

consequences of population growth


Goals and Objectives: Toward a Consensus

Despite the conflicting opinions, there is some common ground


Some Policy Approaches

What can developing countries do?


Table 6.6


Some Policy Approaches

What developing countries can do What the developed countries can do:

resources, population, and the global environment

How developed countries can assist developing countries


Concepts for Review

Birthrate Death rate Demographic transition Doubling time Empowerment of

women Family-planning

programs

Fertility Hidden momentum of

population growth Infant mortality rate Life expectancy at birth Malthusian population

trap


Concepts for Review (cont’d)

Microeconomic theory of fertility

Mortality Natural increase Net international

migration Population-poverty cycle Population pyramid

Positive checks Preventative checks Rate of population

increase Reproductive choice Total fertility rate Youth dependency

ratio

Copyright © 2006 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. Chapter 6 Population Growth and Economic Development: Causes, Consequences, and Controversies.

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