Copyright ©2004 Global Insight, Inc. Global Consumer Markets Service Mike Sweet, Senior Consultant, Business Planning Solutions [email protected].

Copyright ©2004 Global Insight, Inc.

Global Consumer Markets Service Global Consumer Markets Service

Mike Sweet, Senior Consultant, Business Planning Solutions

[email protected]

781-301-9039

July 2004

Copyright ©2004 Global Insight, Inc. 2

Global InsightGlobal Insight

• Premier economic analysis and consulting organization

• Most comprehensive coverage of countries, regions and industries available from any single source

• Common analytical framework and a consistent set of assumptions applied to diverse capabilities and products

• The BEST track record among commercial forecasters. Wall Street Journal, January 2, 2004

• Broad range of capabilities covering:

Consumer Market Sizing

Demographic Analysis

Performance Benchmarking Tools

Retail Sales & Consumer Spending Forecasting

Strategic and Tactical Planning Tools


Global Consumer MarketsGlobal Consumer Markets

Coverage

Samples and Case Studies

Deliverables


Global Consumer Markets DatabaseGlobal Consumer Markets Database

Income Distribution

Socio-Economics

Demographics

Size & Forecast Size & Forecast Your Your

target markettarget market

A Tool to …

Assess Overall Market Attractiveness

– Size Country Markets– Anticipate Growth by

Customer Segment– Identify Market Risk &

Exposure

Conduct Product Penetration Rate Analysis


Uncover market opportunity & risk

Cross-country comparable data 10-year forecasts plus 10 or more years of history, annual

frequency 22 consumer product categories Detailed household income distribution forecasts 95 Countries Population by gender and age Ability to generate custom alternative scenarios Semi-annual updates

Global Consumer Markets DatabaseGlobal Consumer Markets Database


Take it to the Next LevelTake it to the Next Level


Consumer Spending & RiskConsumer Spending & Risk

Buying Power IndicatorsNational Wealth

Gross National Income

Disposable Income

Per Capita Disposable Income

Income Distribution

Consumer Spending by TypeDurables

Semi-durables

Non-durables

Services

Spending by Category *Food

Alcoholic Beverages

Non-Alcoholic Beverages

Tobacco

Clothing & Shoes

Household Equipment

Household Energy

Other Household Services

Transportation Equipment

Transportation Services

Communication

Entertainment

Education

Medical

Financial & Other Services

Restaurants & Hotels

Personal Care

* Additional categories can be added on a custom basis

Consumer Market Risk IndicatorCustom weighted index of relevant risk factors to companies servicing the consumer markets


Demographics and Income Distribution by Demographics and Income Distribution by CountryCountry

Household Income Distribution *<$5K

>$5K–<$10K

>$10K–<$20K

>$20K–<$30K

>$30K–<$40K

>$40K–<$50K

>$50K–<$60K

>$60K–<$70K

>$70K–<$80K

>$80K–<$90K

>$90K–<$100K

>$100K–<$150K

>$150K

* Additional segments can be added on a custom basis

Population by Age and Sex0 to 14

15 to 19

20 to 24

25 to 29

Total population

30 to 44

44 to 54

55 to 64

Over 65

Socio - EconomicsUrban Population

Households and Average Household Size

Educational Attainment Index and Illiteracy Rate

Education Expenditures

Health Expenditures

Education Enrollment (primary, secondary, tertiary)

Labor Force (male and female), unemployment

Life Expectancy and Fertility Rate



Coverage


Deliverables


Data is Delivered in an Easy-to-use Data is Delivered in an Easy-to-use Excel FormatExcel Format


Data is Delivered in an Easy-to-use Data is Delivered in an Easy-to-use Excel FormatExcel Format


Risk and Reward Trade-off: Selected CountriesRisk and Reward Trade-off: Selected Countries

Size of Circles = 2003 market size

Risk vs. Reward

USA

JapanGermany

UKIndia

Turkey

Iran

Russia

South Africa

Chile

Saudi Arabia

Indonesia

Thailand

S. Korea

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%

Forecast Growth in Nominal Spending on Clothing & Shoes(CAGR, 2003-2006)

Co

nsu

mer

Mar

ket

Ris

k(1

=le

ast

risk

y)

A composite measure of risk facing companies selling to consumer markets

High risk markets offering poor growth

Lower risk, high opportunity markets

Risk vs. Reward: What’s your comfort level?


Ranking of Markets by Number of Households Ranking of Markets by Number of Households Earning $10,000 or MoreEarning $10,000 or More

Number of households with income >US $10,000 (1997$)

1993 2003 2010 2020

U.S. U.S. U.S. U.S.

Japan Japan Japan China

Germany Germany China Japan

France China Germany Germany

U.K. France France Brazil

Italy U.K. U.K. France

Brazil Italy Brazil U.K.

Russia Brazil Italy Russia

Spain S. Korea Mexico Mexico

S. Korea Mexico Russia ItalySource: Global Insight’s Global Consumer Model (incorporating U.N. and World Bank data)


500

505

510

515

520

525

530

535

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

Number of young children peaked in 1996Number of young children peaked in 1996

Population 0 to 4 years old (millions)

Top Declining Markets

2003 to 2010 absolute increase (millions)

China -7.71India -3.12Russia -0.77Korea -0.46Ukraine -0.41

Top Growing Markets

2003 to 2010 absolute increase (millions)

Pakistan 2.94Nigeria 2.36Uganda 1.28Egypt 0.92United States 0.59

Changing demographics in your core

segments can have a

profound impact on

market demand


Case Study #1 – Calculating Company Case Study #1 – Calculating Company X’s Market Opportunity in BrazilX’s Market Opportunity in Brazil

Income Bracket in Real US$

Absolute Segment Size

in 2003

Estimated Penetration

Rate

Potential Customers

Less than $5K 19.5 million 9% 1.7 million

Between $5K and $10K 13.5 million 15% 2.0 million



Greater than $20K 9.2 million 97% 8.9 million

X =

Total Households 51.2 million Opportunity 17.6 million


Case Study #1 – Calculating Company X’s Case Study #1 – Calculating Company X’s Market Opportunity in BrazilMarket Opportunity in Brazil

2003 represents an inflection 2003 represents an inflection point for market growthpoint for market growth

2003-2020 CAGR = 3%2003-2020 CAGR = 3%

2003-2020 CAGR = 1.6%2003-2020 CAGR = 1.6%

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

26019

87

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

2011

2013

2015

2017

2019

Ind

ex 1

987

= 1

00

Total Households Potential Customers

Missed Opportunity

Missed Opportunity


0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

Bill

ion

s o

f N

om

inal

US

$

Non-Alcoholic Beverages Alcoholic Beverages

2003-2020 CAGR = 4.4%2003-2020 CAGR = 4.4%

2003-2020 CAGR = 6.5%2003-2020 CAGR = 6.5%

Global demand for alcohol will expand rapidly, as key emerging markets mature. Growth in China and India’s middle class markets will lead the way.

Case Study # 2 -Case Study # 2 -Global Beverage ManufacturerGlobal Beverage Manufacturer


Case Study # 2 -Case Study # 2 -Global Beverage ManufacturerGlobal Beverage Manufacturer

Developed detailed beverage forecasts by country using sales volume data from Beverage Marketing Corporation

6 non-alcoholic beverage categories

– carbonated soda, fruit drinks, milk, tea drinks, coffee drinks and bottled waters

3 alcoholic beverage categories

– beer, wine and spirits

Effects of substitution and complementarities across categories were incorporated

98

100

102

104

106

108

110

112

114

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Ind

ex

20

02

= 1

00

Beer Wine Spirits

Global Demand for Alcoholic Beverages Country X


Case Study # 3 -Case Study # 3 -Developing a Market Attractiveness IndexDeveloping a Market Attractiveness Index

1. Identify key determinants of market attractiveness

2. Weight indicators based on their relative importance

3. Rank country and regional markets

4. Allocate sales and marketing resources

Note: Rank is from 1 (Best - top 10% of countries) to 10 (Worst - bottom 10% of countries). The lower the score, the more attractive the country.



Coverage


Deliverables


Microsoft Excel™ workbook format with tools for screening and selection Semi-annual updates: Q1 and Q3 Ongoing access to Global Insight’s consumer economists to

answer questions about the published outlook

Custom Segmentation & Market Benchmarks – Priced on a project basis

Deliverables & PricingDeliverables & Pricing


Global Insight’s Global Consumer Markets Database provides A comprehensive view of worldwide consumer market

activity A 10-year forecasts Consumer spending by 22 product categories Insight into socio-economic, demographic and household

income trends for 95 countries The strategic insight to identify and

compare business opportunities and market risks critical for success

Power of Global PerspectivePower of Global Perspective

Copyright ©2004 Global Insight, Inc. Global Consumer Markets Service Mike Sweet, Senior Consultant, Business Planning Solutions [email protected].

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