Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management Current status and outlook on international bioenergy markets and trade: exporters, importers and consequences for logistics Bulk Port, Terminals and Logistics 2012, 20th - 22nd May 2012, Mövenpick Hotel, Amsterdam, The Netherlands André Faaij Copernicus Institute – Utrecht University Task Leader IEA Bioenergy Task 40 CLA Bioenergy IPCC - SRREN
23
Embed
Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management Current status and outlook on international bioenergy markets and trade: exporters,
This document is posted to help you gain knowledge. Please leave a comment to let me know what you think about it! Share it to your friends and learn new things together.
Transcript
Copernicus InstituteSustainable Development and Innovation Management
Current status and outlook on international bioenergy
markets and trade: exporters, importers and consequences for
logistics
Bulk Port, Terminals and Logistics 2012, 20th - 22nd May 2012,
Mövenpick Hotel, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
André FaaijCopernicus Institute – Utrecht University
Copernicus InstituteSustainable Development and Innovation Management
[IPCC-SRREN, 2011]
Driving forces, dimensions, scales…
Copernicus InstituteSustainable Development and Innovation Management
Good news on criteria frameworks and frontline of
debate:• Debate has come to it’s senses a bit.• Recognition that iLUC for biofuels
alone is inconsistent: it is about management of land use.
• Spillover effect from biofuels (< 1% of land for food) to agriculture & livestock; COOL!!!.
• More attention for synergies (e.g.: Committee Corbey, Netherlands, 2010, GSB initiative, 2010)
Copernicus InstituteSustainable Development and Innovation Management
Overview and comparisonof initiatives to guarantee sustainability of
bioenergy
Preliminary results: 67 initiatives (regulation + systems) included• All relevant for (some) sustainability issues and/or• Various parts of the bioenergy value chain
20
16
17
11
3
Biomass and Bioenergy Biofuels Forestry* Agriculture* Social*
Dam et al., Renewable & Sustainable Energy Reviews, 2010
Copernicus InstituteSustainable Development and Innovation Management
overview and comparisonof sustainability certification
schemes• 28 initiatives cover the sustainability of
biofuels• From which 17 are developing principles
7
11
6
4
1011
7
17
11
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Wo
rld
wid
e
Eu
rop
e
US
A
Oth
er
reg
ion
s
Go
vern
me
nt
Ma
rke
t/NG
Os
Inte
rna
tion
al
bo
die
s
Se
t of p
rin
cip
les
(mo
re th
an
1)
ind
eve
lop
me
nt*
Re
gu
latio
n in
pla
ce*
IEA Task 40
Dam et al., Renewable & Sustainable Energy Reviews, 2010
Copernicus InstituteSustainable Development and Innovation Management
Copernicus InstituteSustainable Development and Innovation
Operationalisation of sustainability criteria
costs
land availability
Criteria
deforestation
competition with food production
biodiversity
soil erosion
fresh water
nutrient leaching
pollution from chemicals
employment
child labour
wages
Impact
cropmanagement
system
yield quantity
cost supply curve
[Smeets et al., Biomass & Bioenergy, 2010]
Copernicus InstituteSustainable Development and Innovation Management
Opposing sketches for the scenario preconditions, technological challenges, and impacts for bioenergy deployment on long term following TypicalIPCC SRES.
[IPCC-SRREN, 2011]
Copernicus InstituteSustainable Development and Innovation Management
A future vision on global bioenergy markets
(2050…)
[GIRACT FFF Scenario project; Faaij, 2008]
250 Mha = 100 EJ= 5% ag land + pasture = 1/3 Brazilie
Copernicus InstituteSustainable Development and Innovation Management
Final remarks• Bioenergy trade has rapidly become more
important in total biomass supplies (for pellets in particular).
• Plays major role in balancing out fluctuations in demand (policy!) & supply (variable at large).
• Markets still immature; ethanol closest to commodity trading.
• Rapid growth very likely to continue; in particular (‘advanced’’) pellets (torrefaction); cultivated wood is becoming more important.
• More markets for lignocellulosic biomass emerge: 2nd gen biofuels, biochemicals…
• Only a future when done sustainably…• …while at the same time RE and GHG mitigation
targets cannot be met without large scale bioenergy deployment
Copernicus InstituteSustainable Development and Innovation Management
Thanks for your attentionFor more information, see:
www.bioenergytrade.org
• Detailed activities• Background information• Results• Events • Subscribe to the newsletter (2x per year).