cus Institute rfaces between Science & Society, Milano, 27-11-2003 more info: www.nusap Break-out session Uncertainty, assumptions and value commitments • Jeroen van der Sluijs (Chair) • Naomi Oreskes (key-note) • Barbara Regeer (young researcher) • Anne Myhr (rapporteur)
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Copernicus Institute Interfaces between Science Society, Milano, 27-11-2003 more info: Break-out session Uncertainty, assumptions and value.
Copernicus Institute Interfaces between Science & Society, Milano, more info: Insights on uncertainty Uncertainty is partly socially constructed and its assessment always involves subjective judgement Omitting uncertainty management can lead to scandals and crisis; undermines trust in the science More research does not necessarily reduce uncertainty –may reveal unforeseen complexities –irreducible uncertainty (intrinsic or practically) High quality low uncertainty Shift in focus needed from reducing uncertainty towards a systematic management of uncertainty and value loadings Uncertainty is a multi-dimensional concept and can manifest itself at different locations
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Copernicus InstituteInterfaces between Science & Society, Milano, 27-11-2003 more info: www.nusap.net
Break-out session Uncertainty, assumptions and
value commitments
• Jeroen van der Sluijs (Chair)• Naomi Oreskes (key-note)• Barbara Regeer (young researcher)• Anne Myhr (rapporteur)
Copernicus InstituteInterfaces between Science & Society, Milano, 27-28 November 2003
Towards multi-dimensional uncertainty assessment for
1 Societal/demographical developments2 VOC and NOx emissions in the Netherlands
and abroad 3 Ozone concentrations 4 Potential exposure to ozone5 Number of deaths/hospital admittances
due to exposure
What are key-assumptions in this calculation and what is their pedigree?
Copernicus InstituteInterfaces between Science & Society, Milano, 27-11-2003 more info: www.nusap.net
Value loading can be in: practical / disciplinary / epistemic / socio-political sense
Pedigree criteria for reviewing assumptions:• Plausibility• Inter-subjectivity peers• Inter-subjectivity stakeholders• Choice space• Influence of situational restrictions (time, money)• Sensitivity to view and preferences of analyst• Estimated influence on results
Copernicus InstituteInterfaces between Science & Society, Milano, 27-11-2003 more info: www.nusap.net
Workshop reviewing assumptions
• Completion of list of key assumptions
• Rank assumptions according to importance
• Elicit pedigree scores
• Evaluate method
Copernicus InstituteInterfaces between Science & Society, Milano, 27-11-2003 more info: www.nusap.net
Key assumptions ozonedeaths and hospital admittances
• Uncertainty mainly determined by uncertainty in Relative Risk (RR)
• No differences in emissions abroad between the two scenarios
• Ozone concentration homogeneously distributed in 50 x 50 km grid cells
• Worst case meteo now = worst case future• RR constant over time (while air pollution
mixture may change!)• Linear dose-effect relationship
Copernicus InstituteInterfaces between Science & Society, Milano, 27-11-2003 more info: www.nusap.net
Example “traffic light” graph
Assumption that there is a linear dose-effect relationship
Copernicus InstituteInterfaces between Science & Society, Milano, 27-11-2003 more info: www.nusap.net
ConclusionsNUSAP system Can address all locations and dimensions of uncertainty Provides framework for synthesising qualitative and
quantitative assessments of uncertainty Structures in depth review of strengths and weaknesses
of knowledge bases and of assumptions Helps to focus research efforts on most problematic
model components Can be used interactively in extended peer processes to
structure the critical appraisal of knowledge bases for (sustainability) policies.