COP21 Presentation 4 Prediction for the Future Ford & Eric.

COP21Presentation 4Prediction for the FutureFord & Eric

2 Degree Limit General goal for climate change is to limit

temperature increase to 2 degrees Celsius compared to pre-industrial temperatures

Put into writing at Cancun in 2010

William Nordhaus-1977 Suggested 2 degree limit keeps Earth within natural

range of fluctuation Limits ecological damage because Earth’s

temperature has changed this much before

Currently predicted that we will exceed 2 degrees

2 Degree Limit

If reaching 2 degree limit, by 2100 predictions of altered:

Marine ecosystems

Sea Level Rise

Weather patterns Extreme storms, drought, wildfires

Agriculture Reduction in yields of wheat, rice and corn in

both tropical and temperate regions

2 Degree Rise Videohttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P-0_gDXq

YeQ

On a track for

A One Degree Rise

Not analyzing the average air temperature, but the average surface temperature of the earth

Barely perceptible to human skin – but impactful in balance of environment

Scary Fact from Ice Core samples:

In the last million years it has never been more than one degree Celsius warmer than it is now

Solar Geoengineering Study how to reduce solar irradiation

Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR)

Can we utilize the tech that all trees use We’re not advanced enough yet

Can plant trees But not enough difference would

be made

Solar Geoengineering

Atmospheric Reflection

In 1991, Mount Pinatubo in the Philippines erupted in one of the largest volcanic blasts of the 20th century

Spat 20 million tons of sulfur into the atmosphere Shielding earth from the sun’s rays Causing global temperatures to drop by nearly

a half a degree Celsius in a single year

Volcanic SulfurHalf a degree Celsius is the same amount the

planet has warmed in the last 50 years

Scientists have considered replicating the event to counteract global warming Using a fleet of jets to inject sulfate aerosols

high into the atmosphere to block a portion of the sun’s rays

However, there could be serious unintended environmental consequences Wouldn’t reduce CO2 levels

COP21 Goals

Legal force – provide consequences for not meeting targets

Ensure Green Climate Fund is adequately financed

Differentiation – set goals for all nations, not just developed ones

Focus on adaptation to inevitable climate change

Let negotiations be transparent

Attempt to meet our 2 degree goal

COP21 Predictions

Most experts think that a new international treaty will be signed Update or replacement for Kyoto Protocol Only 32% think it will have legally binding

authority Low confidence in ability to meet 2 degree goal

Ending of subsidies for fossil fuel companies important

Much of the burden will fall on businesses Governments pass their goals along to private

sector

Climate Change Activism

About 570,000 in rallies worldwide Urging change and showing

public support London: 50,000 in march

from Hyde Park to Whitehall

Link to Brandalism movement Reducing the amount of

corporate advertising Showing link between

corporate culture and pollution

Sources

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-34956825

http://www.sustainability.com/news/experts-confident-that-cop21-will-lead-to-an-international-agreement-predict-that-business-will-be-key-to-its-implementation-post-2015#.VluX9fnhDtQ

http://www.theenergycollective.com/falwellp/2193591/core-issues-paris-climate-talks