Cop 19

COP 19

Dr. Mark McGinleyHonors College and Department of Biological

SciencesTexas Tech University

COP 19

• The latest international meetings on climate change, COP 19, are currently taking place in Warsaw, Poland.

United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change

• http://unfccc.int/2860.php

Do People Have an Influence on Climate Change?

• Climate change is a natural phenomenon which has occurred many times before on Earth, and depends on factors such as: solar activity, the properties of the surface of Earth, and composition of the atmosphere.

• There is no doubt that now another climate change takes place - during the last hundred years the average global temperature rose by 0.74°C, the sea level increased for the first time since the last ice age (over 20cm since 1870, and the pace of the increase is getting faster), glaciers melt and the snow cap of the Northern hemisphere decreases.

• The climate change from distant history is attributable, above all, to the fluctuations of Earth’s orbit, Sun’s cycle and volcanic activity. These processes continue, but their influence on the observed climate change is generally too insignificant to explain the current situation (studies show that, for example, the Sun may be responsible for not more than 10% of the current global warming).

Do People Have an Influence on Climate Change?

• The key element is the activity of humans who, since the beginning of the industrial revolution (around 1750), started to affect the natural environment on global scale: – deforestation and burning of fossil fuels - the CO2 concentration in the atmosphere

increased by 30% compared to the pre-industrial era (in the prehistoric times the concentration was invariable) and - according to the studies on glacier cores - it is currently the highest since 650,000 years

– the use of synthetic fertilisers and animal farming on industrial scale - the concentration of methane and nitric oxide in the atmosphere in the second half of the 20th century was growing 2-6 times faster than in any other period of our era before 1800.

• What is more, the changes occur at an unprecedented pace (for example, the changes in CO2 concentration and in global temperature similar to those taking place in the 20th century took 5000 years during the periods of ice age!)

• The changes on the global scale cannot be confused with the local trends (which may be positive or negative) or, even more so, with the changing weather!

What can be done to stop / limit the extent of the climate change?

• Every one of us may contribute to stopping or, at least, limiting the climate change. These actions do not require expert knowledge or a lot of time or money, it is enough to bear in mind the best interests of the natural environment when making everyday decisions. – Reduce the use of electric energy - at home and at workplace. It is possible by choosing energy-saving

equipment (marked with A, A+, A++ symbols) with thermostats and time switches. Changing light bulbs to energy-saving ones can save up to 80% of energy. Lamps and equipment should be turned off whenever we are not using them, electric equipment should not be left on stand-by, and cell phone (laptop, shaver, etc.) chargers should not be left plugged in when charged.. Insulation of buildings, decrease in heating and sealing up of windows and doors will contribute not only to lowering the energy consumption, but also to lowering your bills.

– Save water - by remembering to close the tap (also when brushing your teeth) or by installing a special spout which by optically increasing the water jet helps lower water consumption. Taking a shower instead of a bath, turning the washing machine and the dishwasher on only when they are fully loaded, and putting a cover on pots when cooking helps save not only water, but also energy.

– Save paper - by printing on both sides of a sheet of paper, using sheets of paper printed on one side for notes and working printouts, storing documents in electronic version instead of paper one, or by collecting waste paper - 1 ton of wastepaper saves 17 trees.

– Rationalise transport - use of public transport or the increasingly popular eco-driving (economic style of driving) will contribute to reduce the emissions from transport.

– Become a conscious consumer - using bags for multiple use, limiting of use of throw-away packaging, buying products made of recycled materials, buying food and other products in the right amount (not excessively) will not only decrease the amount of waste, but also the amount of energy needed to produce what we consume.

What can be done to stop / limit the extent of the climate change?

• Actions of individuals in the area of climate change have major significance but they alone will not suffice. Countries are the entities that have at their disposal the relevant tools to make efficient policy in the area, create regulations for industry, set the technical standards or finance agriculture modernization programs. At the same time, because the problem of climate change is of global nature, wide international co-operation is necessary - otherwise the endeavors of some countries may be thwarted by the careless policy of others.

What can be done to stop / limit the extent of the climate change?

• The co-operation has been started at the so-called Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro in 1992, during which the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change was adopted.

• The Convention aims at reducing the emissions of greenhouse gases, the main culprit of the human-induced climate change of the industrial era.

• Only by controlling the emission of CO2 and other greenhouse gases humankind may stop the accelerating pace of climate change and limit the damages caused by the extreme weather phenomena occurring over and over again.

The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change

• The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change is an international environmental treaty negotiated at the United Nations Conference on Environment and Development (UNCED), informally known as the Earth Summit, held in Rio de Janeiro from 3 to 14 June 1992.

• The objective of the treaty is to "stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system".

UNFCCC• The UNFCCC was opened for signature on 9 May 1992, after an

Intergovernmental Negotiating Committee produced the text of the Framework Convention as a report following its meeting in New York from 30 April to 9 May 1992. It entered into force on 21 March 1994. As of May 2011, UNFCCC has 195 parties.

• The parties to the convention have met annually from 1995 in Conferences of the Parties (COP) to assess progress in dealing with climate change. In 1997, the Kyoto Protocol was concluded and established legally binding obligations for developed countries to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions.

• The 2010 Cancun agreements state that future global warming should be limited to below 2.0 °C relative to the pre-industrial level.

UNFCCC

• One of the first tasks set by the UNFCCC was for signatory nations to establish national greenhouse gas inventories of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and removals, which were used to create the 1990 benchmark levels for accession of Annex I countries to the Kyoto Protocol and for the commitment of those countries to GHG reductions. Updated inventories must be regularly submitted by Annex I countries.

UNFCCC

• The UNFCCC process has universal range - all UN states take part therein. What is more, works on a new agreement are currently ongoing which will set binding reduction aims for everyone.

• So far, the UNFCCC process brought measurable results in the form of national mitigation and adaptation programs helping countries to make more rational, pro-ecological and pro-development policy, or in the form of organizing markets for emissions trading.

UNFCCC• The participation of all countries is key for the efficiency of the

UNFCCC process. This aim is achieved at the stage of negotiations, and such is the planned shape of the new climate agreement.

• The new agreement should set the reduction aim which will stop the drastic climate warming in future. It will be legally binding for all parties, which will ensure its efficiency. Even if the armed forces or court of law do not guard the treaties (apart from the special role of the International Court of Justice), it is in the best interest of the countries to abide by the commitments, considering the benefits the Treaty alone creates, and due to the care to maintain good relations with other parties of the international community.

Short History of UNFCCC• 1997 — Kyoto Protocol formally adopted in December at COP3. More about the Kyoto

Protocol.• 1996 — The UNFCCC Secretariat is set up to support action under the Convention.• 1995 — The first Conference of the Parties (COP 1) takes place in Berlin.• 1994 — UNFCCC enters into force. An introduction to the United Nations Framework

Convention on Climate Change.• 1992 — The INC adopts UNFCCC text. At the Earth Summit in Rio, the UNFCCC is

opened for signature along with its sister Rio Conventions, UNCBD and UNCCD. More about the two other Rio Conventions: UNCBD and UNCCD.

• 1991 — First meeting of the Intergovernmental Negotiating Committee (INC) takes place.

• 1990 — IPCC's first assessment report released. IPCC and second World Climate Conference call for a global treaty on climate change. United Nations General Assembly negotiations on a framework convention begin.

• 1988 — The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is set up.• 1979 — The first World Climate Conference (WCC) takes place.

Short History of UNFCCC• 2012 - The Doha Amendment to the Kyoto Protocol is adopted by the CMP at CMP8.• 2011 — The Durban Platform for Enhanced Action drafted and accepted by the COP, at COP17• 2010 — Cancun Agreements drafted and largely accepted by the COP, at COP16.• 2009 — Copenhagen Accord drafted at COP15 in Copenhagen. This was taken note of by the COP.

Countries later submitted emissions reductions pledges or mitigation action pledges, all non-binding.

• 2007 — IPCC's Fourth Assessment Report released. Climate science entered into popular consciousness. At COP13, Parties agreed on the Bali Road Map, which charted the way towards a post-2012 outcome in two work streams: the AWG-KP, and another under the Convention, known as the Ad-Hoc Working Group on Long-Term Cooperative Action Under the Convention.

• 2005 — Entry into force of the Kyoto Protocol. The first Meeting of the Parties to the Kyoto Protocol (MOP 1) takes place in Montreal. In accordance with Kyoto Protocol requirements, Parties launched negotiations on the next phase of the KP under the Ad Hoc Working Group on Further Commitments for Annex I Parties under the Kyoto Protocol (AWG-KP).

• 2001 — Release of IPCC's Third Assessment Report. Bonn Agreements adopted, based on the Buenos Aires Plan of Action of 1998. Marrakesh Accords adopted at COP7, detailing rules for implementation of Kyoto Protocol, setting up new funding and planning instruments for adaptation, and establishing a technology transfer framework.

Kyoto Protocol• The Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change

(UNFCCC) is an international treaty that sets binding obligations on industrialized countries to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases. The UNFCCC is an environmental treaty with the goal of preventing "dangerous" anthropogenic (i.e., human-induced) interference of the climate system.

• According to the UNFCC website, the Protocol "recognizes that developed countries are principally responsible for the current high levels of GHG emissions in the atmosphere as a result of more than 150 years of industrial activity, and places a heavier burden on developed nations under the principle of "common but differentiated responsibilities.“

• There are 192 parties to the convention, including 191 states (all the UN members, except Andorra, Canada, South Sudan and the United States) and the European Union.

• The United States signed but did not ratify the Protocol and Canada withdrew from it in 2011.

• Wikipedia

Kyoto Protocol

Kyoto Protocol

• As part of the Kyoto Protocol, many developed countries have agreed to legally binding limitations/reductions in their emissions of greenhouse gases in two commitments periods. The first commitment period applies to emissions between 2008-2012, and the second commitment period applies to emissions between 2013-2020. The protocol was amended in 2012 to accommodate the second commitment period, but this amendment has (as of January 2013) not entered into legal force.

• Wikipedia

Kyoto Protocol

• Developing countries do not have binding targets under the Kyoto Protocol, but are still committed under the treaty to reduce their emissions. Actions taken by developed and developing countries to reduce emissions include support for renewable energy, improving energy efficiency, and reducing deforestation. Under the Protocol, emissions of developing countries are allowed to grow in accordance with their development needs.

• Wikipedia

Kyoto Protocol

Is the UNFCCC process efficient in the battle with the climate change?

• The UNFCCC process has universal range - all UN states take part therein. What is more, works on a new agreement are currently ongoing which will set binding reduction aims for everyone.

• So far, the UNFCCC process brought measurable results in the form of national mitigation and adaptation programs helping countries to make more rational, pro-ecological and pro-development policy, or in the form of organizing markets for emissions trading.

Is the UNFCCC process efficient in the battle with the climate change?

• The participation of all countries is key for the efficiency of the UNFCCC process. This aim is achieved at the stage of negotiations, and such is the planned shape of the new climate agreement.

• The new agreement should set the reduction aim which will stop the drastic climate warming in future. It will be legally binding for all parties, which will ensure its efficiency. Even if the armed forces or court of law do not guard the treaties (apart from the special role of the International Court of Justice), it is in the best interest of the countries to abide by the commitments, considering the benefits the Treaty alone creates, and due to the care to maintain good relations with other parties of the international community.

COP 19- The “Construction COP”

• Two years ago in Durban, South Africa, countries agreed to establish an international climate action agreement by 2015 that would be applicable to all countries, with the goal of limiting global temperature rise to 1.5-2 °C above pre-industrial levels. These kind of new agreements do not emerge overnight, but rather require progress to take place each year along the way.

• In that sense, this year’s COP should be thought of as a “construction COP,” where the road is being laid to reach the 2015 international agreement at COP 21 in Paris.

• http://www.wri.org/blog/5-issues-watch-cop-19-%E2%80%9Cconstruction-cop%E2%80%9D

Architecture and Process for a New International Agreement

• How to design the architecture for the new agreement and the process leading up to it will be a central discussion in Warsaw. It is an enormously complex challenge to get all nations of the world to agree to a common way forward.

• A new approach to the negotiations is emerging, aimed at creating an international process that catalyzes change at the national level around the world. This approach would take countries’ “national offers” on how they will reduce their respective emissions and blend them with an effective international process and regime

Equity• Based on the negotiating mandate adopted in Durban, the 2015

agreement will apply to all countries—it is no longer possible to keep developed and developing countries in two entirely separate cabins. As a result, addressing equity among the wide range of countries in the UNFCCC has become an essential issue for the negotiations. This includes complex questions about which countries should be responsible for taking what types of action, as well as how to factor in the vulnerability of those who often face the harshest climate impacts but who have contributed least to the problem.

• How equity will be built into the process leading to the 2015 agreement is a key question for Warsaw, especially in terms of national offers and assessments. This includes the issue of how benchmarks for equity will be determined and how they will be used when countries propose offers and when those offers are reviewed.

Finance

• Climate finance discussions will be central to laying the groundwork for the 2015 agreement. Specifically, countries must discuss how to move toward the goal of mobilizing $100 billion in climate finance annually by 2020, and establish what types of reporting and transparency mechanisms they will use. How and when countries plan to mobilize resources for the emerging Green Climate Fund (GCF) will also be a significant issue, especially now that the GCF has laid out a schedule for completing its essential framework and initiating a pledging process by September 2014. There will also be discussion of the overall balance of funding for adaptation and mitigation, which is currently weighted heavily towards mitigation.

Loss and Damage• An important question is how the international community will

address the needs of communities who will be harmed by climate impacts that are difficult or impossible to adapt to. In many cases, these impacts will be experienced several decades from now (including submersion of island nations, loss of coastal land and communities, loss of biodiversity and crop varieties, etc.).

• This issue, referred to as loss and damage, rose on the agenda of the negotiations at the very end of COP 18 last year in Doha, when countries agreed to adopt institutional arrangements on loss and damage this year at COP 19. Discussions at Warsaw will revolve around creating strategies to address the harm caused by long-term climate impacts.

Measurement, Reporting, Verification, and Accountability

• The process to reach ambitious and fair commitments by 2015 must be underpinned by rules and guidance to ensure that countries prepare their negotiating offers transparently and with some degree of comparability. Countries can also reach an agreement in Warsaw on how to implement the verification pillar of MRV (measurement, reporting and verification) for developing countries, known as International Consultation and Analysis (ICA).

• ICA involves assessments of developing countries’ biennial reports on their mitigation actions and financial support received. Agreement on how to carry out ICA can be reached in Warsaw, but an outcome will depend on developing countries seeing the verification and assessment exercise as an opportunity for more effective cooperation.