Daniel Kammen Class of 1935 Distinguished Professor of Energy Energy and Resources Group | Goldman School of Public Policy Director, Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory University of California, Berkeley COP21, December 8, 2015 Cookstoves, Climate & Development
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Daniel KammenClass of 1935 Distinguished Professor of Energy
Energy and Resources Group | Goldman School of Public PolicyDirector, Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory
University of California, Berkeley
COP21, December 8, 2015
Cookstoves, Climate & Development
Twitter: @dan_kammen
Website: http://rael.berkeley.edu
Resources:
THE PROBLEM
“More than 1.4 billion people worldwide have no access to electricity. An additional 1 billion only have intermittent access. ”
United Nations Secretary General, 2012
THE PROBLEMS
“Another 2 billion have unreliable or unaffordable electricity.”IEA, 2015
“Less than 10 nations have viable decarbonization pathways.”RAEL, 2015
Cookstove research and activism has been the opening opportunity on both issues
4
Solid Fuel Users
Source: Global Energy Assessment (2012) www.globalenergyassessment.org
6
Solid Fuel Users
ER100 - Lecture 5 Page 7
PM
10
Concentr
ation (
g / m
3)
Stove-Fuel Combination
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
3-Stone Ceramic Wood Old Charcoal New Charcoal
n=105
n=16
n=6
Note: OECD do-not-exceed PM10
standards are 50 - 150 g/m3
Stove and Fuel Comparison (Average Emissions)
Bailis & Kammen, ES&T, 2003
8
Solid Fuel Users
Kammen (1996), Scientific American; Ezzati and Kammen (2001) The Lancet
Pro
babili
ty (
AR
I)
Average Daily Exposure (g / m3)
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0 2000 4000 6000 8000
Charcoal
Ceramic Wood Stoves
3-Stone Fire
Illness Reduction Observed in Kenya in 500 Households(ARI = acute respiratory infection)
All ARI
ALRI,
Lower respiratory
Infections only
10 | C L E A N C O O K S T O V E S A N D F U E L S
How Clean Is Clean Enough to Impact Child Survival?More evidence along the ALRI “Integrated Exposure Response Curve”
ambient air pollutionsecond hand smokehousehold air pollution(Guatemala RCT)
LPG / Ethanol
Rocket Stove
AdvancedBiomass
Ghana RCTNepal RCTNigeria RCT
Exposure to PM2.5
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DALYs from household air pollution (2010)
Source: Smith, ARPH (2014)
12
Deaths from household air pollution (2010)
Source: Smith, ARPH (2014)
13
Household Air Pollution: Deaths <5yrs
78
14
200-400
Source: IHME, Global Burden of Disease 2010 (2012)
Shows Deaths Attributable to Household Air Pollution in 2010, per 100,000
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Household Air Pollution: Deaths, All Ages
83
77
40-100
Source: IHME, Global Burden of Disease 2010 (2012)
Shows Deaths Attributable to Household Air Pollution in 2010, per 100,000
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Health Co-Benefits
Source: Kirk Smith, 2012
. . /~
Life-cycle comparison of Kenyan household energy technologies
GHG emissions from charcoal production and end-use
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
Smith/Pennise Brocard et al Smith/Pennise Brocard et al
KP GHGs All greenhouse gases
g-C
per
kg
dry
-fuel co
nsum
ed
Charcoal production
Charcoal consumption
Charcoal kiln in the early stages of firing, Narok, Kenya. Source: Rob Bailis & Dan Kammen
Source: Global Energy Assessment (2012) www.globalenergyassessment.org
23
24
Hot Topic: Kerosene for Lighting
Source: Lam et al., EST (2012)
• 7-9% of kerosene become black carbon (BC--strong forcer)
– Warming of 1 kg of BC = 700 kg of CO2 over 100 years
• Low organic carbon emissions (OC)
• Lung function, asthma, cancer risks
Quantitative Assessments: Energy and Human Development
Literacy
Mortality(Children)
Poverty
Education
Mortality(Infants)
Sanitation
Correlation, not causation, but warrants deeper investigation
Energy Access, Opportunity & Quality of Life
Alstone, Gerhenson, and Kammen, Nature Climate Change, 2015
A unique moment in history: rapid shifts in ICT, end-use efficiency, and business models
Alstone, P., Gershenson, D. & Kammen, D. M. Decentralized energy systems for clean electricity access. Nature Clim. Change 5, 305–314 (2015).
Fig.3SOM
28
Fuel Based Lighting : Expensive, Unhealthy, and Inefficient
Kerosene for lighting is a $25 billion per year industry globally (source: UNEP, 2013)
Fuel Based Lighting is the Incumbent Technology
Photo by Evan MillsPhoto by Peter Alstone
Photo by Peter Alstone
Kammen – http://rael.berkeley.edu
PAYG accelerates access (~2-3x higher uptake)- Providing financing for customers
and supply chain players- Improving trust in off-grid power
by spreading risk
Alstone , Gershenson and Kammen, (2015) Off-grid Power and Connectivity, Lighting Global Market Research Report
PAYG repayment matches well with typical daily spending on fuel (shown in histograms) and mobile phone recharging (~roughly similar for those who must pay).
The GridShare solution: a smart grid approach to improve service provision on a renewable energy mini-grid in BhutanT G Quetchenbach et al 2013 Environ. Res. Lett. 8 014018