Convert The Extra Point: 3 Strategies Anyone Can Use To Measure the Success Beyond The Last Click By Mark Irvine

#SMX #13B @MarkIrvine89

3 Strategies Anyone can use to Measure the Success Beyond The Last Click

Convert The Extra Point


Meet Mark Irvine •  Data Scientist at Wordstream in

Boston, MA

•  Researches industry trends in PPC

•  Been working Paid Search for 3 Years

•  Before PPC Life, worked with NESN, ESPN, & CBS Sports


The MLB was dominated by teams with big pockets – who focused strongly on buying players around a small set of metrics. The Oakland Athletics GM, Billy Beane, found himself with a small budget, a gutted team, and a radical idea.

Moneyball – Baseball in 2001


A Focus on New Metrics

Last Season’s Stats Recruit A Recruit B Recruit C

Age 22 25 31

HR 8 8 4

RBI 18 21 12

BA .313 .291 .222

On Base % .312 .321 .431

3 imaginary recruits

The focus of most MLB General Managers

The focus of the Oakland office


The 2002 Oakland A’s won as many games as the New York Yankees – with only a third their budget

Oakland A’s take 20 game winning streak


Small advertisers can’t afford to compete by looking at all the same metrics –

They need to play smarter.


New Media Playing With Old Metrics

Metric Shopping Specific Product Keywords

Broader “Top of the Funnel” Keywords

Click Volume 3,293 5,598 8,905

CTR 1.56% 2.96% 1.02%

CPA $92 $101 $233

Conversion Rate 1.86% 3.05% 0.65%

Conversions 61 170 58

Case study SMB Account:

Initial Reaction: Pause /pull back campaign!


Campaigns Provide Value Beyond CPA §  This campaign

produced a lot of traffic – but rarely ever converted.

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2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000 10,000

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Clicks in Poor Campaign

Original Performance



Campaigns Provide Value Beyond CPA §  Without making

major changes to any other campaign, we saw conversions from other campaigns begin to fall off as a result.

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So We Pulled Back on the Campaign


Pulling Back on Poor Performing Campaign


Campaigns Provide Value Beyond CPA

§ And conversions still fell for a few more weeks.

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So We Stopped


Pulling Back on Poor Performing Campaign Following Weeks


Campaigns Provide Value Beyond CPA §  In this case, not only did reducing this “poor converting”

campaign reduce direct conversions. It also:

•  Reduced the search interest in other campaigns by 10%. •  Reduced the conversion rate in other search campaigns by

26%. •  Reduced the conversion rate of all website traffic by 12%.

•  Total online sales suffered an 18% drop.


Token Funnel Slide

These searchers

Become prospects

Become customers*! *But not always in 1 click


Attribution is Critical

§ 89% Of marketers believe attribution is important.

Source: AdRoll


But Most Aren’t Thinking With It

§ But 66%

of marketers use a single-touch attribution model

Source: AdRoll


We all say we value attribution, but we clearly don’t know how to.


Attribution Hat Trick Today’s 3 Goals: 1.  Full Funnel Insight with Conversion

Paths 2.  Choosing the Right Attribution Model 3.  Attributing Online Action to Offline

Marketing


Follow Conversion Paths

#1: Keep your eye on

the ball


Different Campaigns Need to Play Different Positions

§  Some assist. §  They create new

opportunities with new audiences and bring them closer to your goal.

§  Some convert. §  They work with your

core audience and bring them directly to your goal.


We Need To Use Smarter Metrics

§  Conversion paths available on the Campaign, Ad Group, Keyword, & Search Query levels!


Different Campaigns Need to Play Different Positions

§  These are your assisted conversions.

§  They create new opportunities with new audiences and bring them closer to your goal.

§  These are your direct conversions (last click).

§  They work with your core audience and bring them directly to your goal.


Valuing Campaigns For What They’re Worth

§  Assisted conversions can be integrated into your decision metrics:

#SMX #13B @MarkIrvine89 Choosing The Right Attribution Model

#2: Play the Right

Game


Not All Assists Are Worth The Same

Individual assists worth LESS

Individual assists worth MORE


Not All Assists Are Worth The Same

Individual assists worth LESS

Individual assists worth MORE

Products or services with a short buying cycle or low profit margins on advertising.

Products or services with a long buying cycle or high profit margins on advertising.


Google Attribution Models Model First Click Middle Clicks Last Click

Last Interaction (Default for Google Analytics)

0% 0% 100%

Last Non-Direct Click 0% 100% (All on the last non-direct click)

0% (If Direct)

Last AdWords Click (Default for AdWords)

0% 100% (All on the last AdWords click)

0% (If not AdWords)

First Interaction 100% 0% 0%

Linear Equal Equal Equal

Time Decay Least More Most

Position Based 40% 20% (Split Evenly) 40%

Data Driven (Available within GA Premium – soon to be rolled out further)

Based on source Based on source Based on source


Position Based §  Position based modeling heavily weights first and last

clicks §  Ideal when your campaigns are designed to educate about

your product. §  Great for when you’re trying to create a demand for your

niche.


Time Decay §  Time Decay modeling heavily weights most recent clicks §  Ideal when your campaigns are designed to differentiate

yourself from competitors. §  Great if you have several campaigns targeting the same

users while they’re evaluating their potential purchase.


Comparing Models

#SMX #13B @MarkIrvine89 Work Other Channels Into Your Model

#3: Be a Team Player


We Live in A Multi-Device World


Offline Media Creates Online Action

0%

100%

200%

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500%

600%

700%

Shar

e of

typi

cal a

ctiv

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ebsi

te u

sers

Time

Website Visitors Following Regional TV Buy

Active Website Visitors

2:29 – 6x active users

1:55 - Ad airs

2:02 – 6x active users

2:23 – Traffic 10% Elevated. Ad airs.

2:46 – Traffic 20% Elevated.


Think Mobile First

0%

100%

200%

300%

400%

500%

600%

700%

Share of ty

pical ac/ve web

site users

Time

Website Visitors Following Regional TV Buy

Mobile Visitors

Tablet Visitors

Desktop Visitors


We’re Looking At Multiple Screens – At the Same Time!

§  Source: “The New Multi-Screen World Study”,

§  Think With Google, 2012

Mobile users are 3x more likely

to respond to a commercial


And Other Channels Have Different Immediate Returns

Channel Reaction Period

TV & Radio Minutes

Social Hours

PPC Days

SEO Months


Recap 1.  Use Conversion Paths & Assisted

Conversion metrics to fully value your campaigns.

2.  Find an Attribution Model that aligns with your marketing goals

3.  Value other channels for their contribution


THANK YOU!

Mark Irvine, Data Scientist Wordstream

Convert The Extra Point: 3 Strategies Anyone Can Use To Measure the Success Beyond The Last Click By Mark Irvine

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