© 2013 Cheil Worldwide A Contrarian View... 1
© 2013 Cheil Worldwide
A Contrarian View...1
© 2013 Cheil Worldwide
Here is a collection of ideas intended to challenge your assumptions.
They are not conclusive answers or an argument against digital.
2
© 2013 Cheil Worldwide
“A contrarian is a person who takes up a contrary position, especially a position that is opposed to that of the majority, regardless of how unpopular it may be.”Good ol’ Wikipedia
3
© 2013 Cheil Worldwide
A contrarian view on us...(i.e. people who work in advertising)
4
© 2013 Cheil Worldwidehttp://martinweigel.org/2013/06/26/if-you-work-in-adland-youre-not-normal-the-evidence/
© 2013 Cheil Worldwide
6
http://martinweigel.org/2013/06/26/if-you-work-in-adland-youre-not-normal-the-evidence/
© 2013 Cheil Worldwide
7
http://martinweigel.org/2013/06/26/if-you-work-in-adland-youre-not-normal-the-evidence/
© 2013 Cheil Worldwide
A contrarian view on TV and the 30 second spot...
8
© 2013 Cheil Worldwide
Anyone remember this book?9
Published 2005
© 2013 Cheil Worldwide
The debate continues...10
Published 2013
© 2013 Cheil Worldwide
“More than half (51%) of UK households now
own a DVR”
11
http://www.csimagazine.com/csi/UK-time-shifted-TV-viewing-reaching-peak.php
Sounds plausible, right?
But...
© 2013 Cheil Worldwide
“The average viewer watched 47 ads a day
during 2012”
12
http://www.csimagazine.com/csi/UK-time-shifted-TV-viewing-reaching-peak.php
and...
© 2013 Cheil Worldwide
“Almost 90% of linear TV in 2012 was
watched live, as it was broadcast”
13
http://www.csimagazine.com/csi/UK-time-shifted-TV-viewing-reaching-peak.php
© 2013 Cheil Worldwide
“...the average British person now watches an average of four hours and two minutes of TV a day, up
from an average of three hours and 36 minutes a day in 2006.”
14
http://www.guardian.co.uk/tv-and-radio/2013/mar/18/britons-own-fewer-tvs-research
Ohh... and.
© 2013 Cheil Worldwide
... on the Measurability of Digital
15
© 2013 Cheil Worldwide
Measuring Twitter impressions
‘Impressions’, the standard metric on Twitter, assume that every single person who could possibly have seen a Tweet actually saw it.eg in this case there would be 300 impressions... Really?How many people see even 50% of the Tweets in their feed? Surely a Tweet can’t make an impression unless you actually see it.
16
100 Followers
50
Tweet
50 50 50
Retweets
© 2013 Cheil Worldwide
Add to that the fake account issue
20 million fake Twitter accounts!
17
http://bit.ly/17x0RsBhttp://bit.ly/17x17rx
© 2013 Cheil Worldwide
54% of online display ads shown in "thousands" of campaigns measured by
comScore Inc. between May of 2012 and February of this year weren't seen by
anyone, according to a study completed last month.
18
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324904004578537131312357490.html
Why don’t we hear more about this measurement
© 2013 Cheil Worldwide
19
Einstein says...
“Not everything that can be counted counts, and not everything that counts can be counted”
© 2013 Cheil Worldwide
...on Real Time Marketing20
© 2013 Cheil Worldwide
21
http://www.slideshare.net/michaelgoldstein/0retweets-things-i-hate-about-digital-advertising
© 2013 Cheil Worldwide
..on brand loyalty22
© 2013 Cheil Worldwide
23
Double jeopardy
Double jeopardy is an empirical law in marketing where, with few exceptions, the
lower market share brands in a market have lower brand loyalty.
© 2013 Cheil Worldwide
24
Maybe growth is the key to loyalty
http://bit.ly/14jupMv
growth
© 2013 Cheil Worldwide
...on Change25
© 2013 Cheil Worldwide
26
© 2013 Cheil Worldwide
27
© 2013 Cheil Worldwide
“Even power-users of Facebook with 1,000 or more friends still only communicate regularly with around
150 people, and of that 150 they strongly communicate with a group less than 20.”
Robin Dunbar, Anthropologist
28
http://gawker.com/5855697/the-biological-reason-you-have-too-many-facebook-friends
Human’s don’t change that quickly.
© 2013 Cheil Worldwide
In Summary29
© 2013 Cheil Worldwide
You and your coworkers are not representative of the general population
30
© 2013 Cheil Worldwide
The 30 sec is far from dead
31
© 2013 Cheil Worldwide
Data and statistics aren’t as objective and scientific
as we like to think
32
© 2013 Cheil Worldwide
Old Habits Die Hard
33
© 2013 Cheil Worldwide
People don’t change that quickly
34
© 2013 Cheil Worldwide
The things that matter the most change slower than
we think
35
© 2013 Cheil Worldwide
@faris@ProfByron@AdContrarian@mweigel@davetrott
36
Contrarians to follow
Thank you.