Information provided at the "Training for Transition", Totnes, September 2009. Informaci'on suministrada en el training de TT en Totnes, Septiembre 2009
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1. Carrying Capacity Definition Transition Training 2007
2. Carrying capacity - notes
Main points
Carrying capacity is the population that can be sustained, at a
given level of consumption, on a given area
The global population passed the planets carrying capacity in
about 1980
Additional Notes
What the carrying capacity is depends on how much natural
resource is taken by humans, how much we allow for other
species
The current human population of the earth is 6.5 billion. Best
estimates are that earths long term sustainable population is 2
billion (if everyone had a low level of Western consumption and
technology), and maybe less.
Quote from Vandana Shiva: the best way for a population to make
good decisions about carrying capacity is for the people to own
their land.
3. Ecological footprint Transition Training 2007
4.
Wackernagel and Rees introduced the concept of ecological
footprints.
The idea can be applied to any item, person or activity
The footprint is the total area required to sustainably supply
all the energy and resources needed, and to absorb all the waste
produced by the item, person or activity
Ecological footprint
5. The UK living beyond our means Transition Training 2007
ghost acres taking from others fossil acres taking from the past
(ancient sunlight) draw down taking from the future
6. Overshoot
Main Point
If we are living beyond our means ecologically speaking How is
that possible?
Because we use three sources of extra inputs and waste
removal:
Ghost acres . We import food, trees, clothing, minerals and
other resources as raw or finished goods from other countries.
Fossil acres . Our one-off legacy from the past, mainly in the
form of fossil fuels for energy but also the most easily mined
metals and other minerals
Draw down . We use renewable resources without regard to the
time for them to renew. We pass on an increasingly degraded world
to our children with less water, forest, fish, wilderness, trees,
species, land etc
Additional Points
Ghost acres can be seen as a post-colonial form of empire
taking from those less powerful than us. The other two are like a
business using up its capital as if it is income. The Last hours of
ancient sunlight is a wonderful book about this.
In exchange for importing goods and exporting waste to other
countries? We provide services such as financial markets, and sell
debt. 97% of the money circulating in the world is debt, issued by
rich countries
7. Global inequality is growing Transition Training 2007
8. Global inequality
Main points
Each horizontal band shows 20% of the worlds population, the
horizontal width shows their income
The richest 20% earn 82% of the worlds income and the vast
majority of this is earned by the top 10%
Additional points
This trend is becoming more extreme.
9. A diagram of everything Transition Training 2007 Water Short
use then throw away Massive inequalities Fish Minerals Oil and gas
Inputs Outputs Land Rubbish in landfill Soil Chemicals Gases
Radioactive waste Forest Food Industrial growth system
10. A diagram of everything Main Point The model of the
industrialised growth system is that there are unlimited resources
as inputs and an unlimited sink for receiving outputs - waste
Although we focus on climate change and peak oil and some people
have questions about the analysis of these problems, a closer look
reveals that every part of this system is in crisis. (following
slides go into each aspect in more detail)
11. The solution: closing the loops Transition Training
2007
12. The solution closing the loops
This slide shows the concept of thinking in terms of
cycles
Solutions to our disconnected resources in rubbish out system
would include ideas such as:
Relocalisation the output from one system is an input somewhere
else. E.g. waste card as biofuel
Permaculture is a very helpful thinking tool for designing
closed systems
Indigenous living systems also show us how to close these
loops
You might like to think of some examples of closing
loops..
13. The Age of Cheap Energy is Over
Peaks in oil production follow peaks in discoveries- usually
25-40 years later
Of 98 producers, 64 countries have already peaked
When Peak Oil & Climate Change are considered together,
solutions to each cancel each other out. The whole system needs to
be redesigned- a low energy, re-localised and resilient system is
the only viable future
The current human population of the earth is 6.5 billion. Best
estimates are that earths long term sustainable population is 2
billion (if everyone had a low level of Western consumption and
technology), and maybe less.