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University of Edinburgh School of Social and Political Science/Politics & IR

PLIT10104 CONTEMPORARY ISSUES IN POLITICAL SCIENCE:

THE 2016 US ELECTION

Semester 1, Autumn 2016

KEY INFORMATION

Course Time and Place: Mondays, 14.10-16.00, Geography, 2.19 Old Library, Drummond Place.

The class will split (some weeks) into two groups at 15:00 – 16:00, between Drummond Place and SR3, Minto House.

Course Organisers:

Elizabeth Bomberg & John Peterson Chrystal MacMillan Building, (respectively) rooms 3.06 & 2.14

email: [email protected] / [email protected] Twitter @eebomberg / @redsocksJP

office tel: 650 4248 / 651 3023 feedback & guidance hours: Tues 12-2pm (EB) / Wed 11-1pm (JP)

Course Secretary: Claire Buchan

[email protected] Undergraduate Teaching Office, CMB ground floor

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Contents KEY INFORMATION ........................................................................................................... 1

COURSE AIMS AND LEARNING OUTCOMES ....................................................................... 2

TEACHING METHODS AND PROGRAMME ......................................................................... 3

COURSE ASSESSMENT OVERVIEW ..................................................................................... 4

COMMUNICATIONS AND FEEDBACK ................................................................................. 4

READINGS ........................................................................................................................ 5

Reading List by Topics ............................................................................................................ 6

APPENDIX 1: SEMINAR ARRANGEMENTS ....................................................................... 17

APPENDIX 2: SPS UNDERGRADUATE SCHOOL GENERAL INFORMATION .......................... 19

Students with Disabilities ..................................................................................................... 19

Learning Resources for Undergraduates ............................................................................. 19

External Examiner ................................................................................................................ 19

APPENDIX 3: COURSEWORK ASSIGNMENTS ................................................................... 20

APPENDIX 4: COURSE WORK SUBMISSION AND PENALTIES ............................................. 23

Penalties that can be applied to your work and how to avoid them. ................................. 23

ELMA: Submission and Return of Coursework .................................................................... 23

Extensions: New policy-applicable for years 1 -4 ................................................................ 24

Exam Feedback and Viewing Exam Scripts: ......................................................................... 24

Plagiarism Guidance for Students: Avoiding Plagiarism ...................................................... 24

Data Protection Guidance for Students ............................................................................... 25

APPENDIX 5: SELECTED WEBSITES ................................................................................... 26

APPENDIX 6: GUIDE TO REFERENCING ............................................................................ 27

COURSE AIMS AND LEARNING OUTCOMES Welcome to CIPS: The 2016 US Election! AIMS This honours course aims to provide students with a critical understanding of:

the rules governing and factors determining US Presidential elections (with Congressional/state elections less emphasised but still essential), especially the election taking place in 2016;

the foundations of US elections, including parties, the economy, ethnicities, demographics, the media, money, policy, and core ‘American’ political values and beliefs;

the nature of modern American election campaigns, and what is new – and what is not – about them when compared to past campaigns.

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LEARNING OUTCOMES By the end of the course students will be able to:

demonstrate comprehensive understanding of contemporary debates on US general elections, from both a theoretical and empirical perspective;

demonstrate specialist, in-depth knowledge of the 2016 US election, as well as past American elections;

engage critically with key explanatory theories, concepts, institutions and issues in the study of US general elections;

deploy and justify the use of case studies to deepen our understanding of US elections and political science more generally;

engage in critical thinking, reflection and debate about US elections for academic and non-academic consumption.

TEACHING METHODS AND PROGRAMME The course will meet on Mondays from 14.10—16.00 in Geography (Old Infirmary), 2.19 Old Library, Drummond Place. This course is structured around weekly interactive lectures followed by student discussion and activities. The class will split into two groups half way through the lecture, between the Drummond Place venue and SR3 Minto House. In the first hour one of the course leaders will present a 30-50 minute interactive lecture to outline the week’s topic; the other course leader will chair the lecture and discussion. These lectures are meant to provide a broad outline of the topic and point you towards key readings and debates. In the second hour we’ll either split the class into two for smaller group discussion, or stay together for the entire two hours. Both formats are designed to accommodate student discussion, questions and debate. We’ll be fortunate to have several guest lecturers/contributors this semester. Two colleagues from Edinburgh History (Prof Frank Cogliano and Dr Fabian Hilfrich) will join us week 2 for our session on the history of US elections. Beth Monahan from Democrats Abroad (as well as, hopefully, a representative of Republicans Abroad) will visit us for our week 4 discussion on parties. Prof Chris Carman of the University of Glasgow will tell us where things stand the day before the election (!) at our week 8 session on polling. We may have other guest speakers as well. Key insights on the weekly topic will, of course, always come from your own reading and reflection.

Seminar Programme (Mondays, 14.10-16.00) Week 1 (19 Sept): Introduction: Making Sense of US Elections Week 2 (26 Sept): The History of US Elections Week 3 (3 Oct): Campaigns and Voting Behaviour Week 4 (10 Oct): Parties and US Elections Week 5 (17 Oct): The Media, Money and US Elections Week 6 (24 Oct): Economic Policy, Perceptions and the 2016 Election

Seminar participation – midterm feedback Week 7 (31 Oct): Foreign Policy and the 2016 Election

Issue Brief due Tuesday 1 November Week 8 (7 Nov): Polling and the 2016 Election Week 9 (14 Nov): Demographics (ethnicity, gender, age) and the Outcome Week 10 (21 Nov): Conclusion: What Determined the Result? Final Essay due 5th December 2016, 12 noon

LEARN (Blackboard)

Please get in the habit of using LEARN for this course. The course guide, announcements and weekly LEARN readings are available beginning Week 1. Presentation slides will also be posted there before interactive lectures (usually held during the 1st hour of weekly meetings). Note these outlines are meant to be used as a review, or as an outline in case you miss a session. They are not a substitute for lecture notes which we would encourage

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you to take yourself. We’ll also use LEARN for seminar discussions and uploads, announcements and further tips and readings on your issue brief.

COURSE ASSESSMENT OVERVIEW The assessment for this course has three components:

Assessment Word count limit Do not exceed the word limit or penalties will be applied

Assessment weighting

Submission Date (all course work is due at 12 noon on the date of submission)

Return of Feedback date

Issue Brief 3500 45% 1 Nov 2016 22/11/16

Final Essay 3500 45% 5 Dec 2016 6/1/17

Seminar Performance

10% Ongoing Mid way feedback given week 6; final feedback end of term

Seminars: For further information see separate Appendix 1: ‘Seminar arrangements’, p15) Coursework: For further information see separate Appendix 3: ‘Coursework Assignments’, p19);

COMMUNICATIONS AND FEEDBACK You are strongly encouraged to use email for routine communication with lecturers. We shall also use email to communicate with you, e.g., to assign readings for the second hour of each class. All students are provided with email addresses on the university system, if you are not sure of your address, which is based on your matric number, check your EUCLID database entry using the Student Portal. This is the ONLY email address we shall use to communicate with you. Please note that we will NOT use ‘private’ email addresses such as yahoo or hotmail; it is therefore essential that you check your university email regularly, preferably each day.

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READINGS

Required text The following is compulsory for this course and we expect all participants to purchase a copy. Copies are on sale at Blackwells (South Bridge) or Word Power (W Nicholson St). We strongly recommend that you purchase the most recent edition.

Polsby, N.W., Wildavsky, A., Schier, S.E. and Hopkins, D.A. Presidential Elections: Strategies and Structures of American Politics, 14th ed (Rowman & Littlefield, 2015); https://rowman.com/ISBN/9781442253650/Presidential-Elections-Strategies-and-Structures-of-American-Politics-Fourteenth-Edition.

Recommended supplementary texts

Achen, C. and Bartels, L. Democracy for Realists. Why Elections Do Not Produce Responsive Government (Princeton University Press, 2016) a very downbeat – but thoughtful – critique of (especially) US democracy.

Daley, D., Ratf***ed: The True Story Behind the Secret Plan to Steal American Democracy (Liveright Press, 2016) a highly polemical – and not very academic – piece of work. But indicative of how impassioned debates have become in US politics.

Both are available in the library (the former available on-line) but with restrictions; we advise you to purchase your own copies if possible.

Recommended background texts If you are new to the study of US politics, or if you want a basic text to see you through the course, we recommend you purchase at least one of the texts listed below. Copies are also available in the main library and HUB.

McKay, D. American Politics and Society, 8th ed (Blackwell, 2013) Basic and thorough text; earlier editions available in library as hard copy or as e-book;

Peele, G. Bailey, C. Cain, B. and Peters, B. G. (eds) Developments in American Politics 7 (Palgrave 2014) Assumes basic knowledge of US Government ; examines key areas of US government and politics. Earlier editions available as e-book

Several other general introductory textbooks on US politics are also available in the library reserve for additional background reading.

PLEASE note that this course guide is a living document: that is, it will be updated and revised as the course goes along, and we come across new, useful readings that deepen our knowledge of our subject. Fresh, updated versions of the course guide will be posted on the LEARN page. We will let you know when the course guide has been updated. You are encouraged to let us know when you come across new, useful readings during the course. As we’ve never taught this course before, please let us know when you have difficulty finding readings; we’ve tried to be duly diligent to make sure they’re all available to you, but do let us know when they’re not.

Journals and Newspapers It is important that you stay up-to-date on recent developments in US government and the 2016 campaign. Make an effort to consult a quality daily news source which provides coverage of US politics. For major US newspaper coverage, we recommend the New York Times (www.nytimes.com) – it offers an discount to academics and students of 4 weeks free followed by $1 (= 76p at current exchange rates) and the Washington Post (www.washingtonpost.com), both of which have a very user-friendly website and daily news bulletins. Several useful academic journals and weekly magazines are available in the library. Virtually all of these are now available electronically, although not for all years. An extremely useful weekly is the Economist

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(www.economist.com). The most helpful journals include the American Political Science Review, CQ Researcher, Foreign Affairs, Presidential Studies Quarterly and Political Science Quarterly (PSQ). The New York Review of Books and New Yorker also carry extended essays on topical matters in US politics. (See also news sources listed in Appendix 5).

The following journals also often feature relevant articles:

British Journal of Political Science, from 2000; Journal of American Studies; Journal of Politics; Government and Opposition, Perspectives on Politics, Political Quarterly, Parliamentary Affairs; PS, Prospect, Perspectives on Politics; Policy and Politics; Politics; Political Quarterly; Political Studies.

Websites

You’ll find a plethora of websites on US politics and elections. We’ve attached a list of websites you might useful when following the election (see Appendix 5). Note that websites vary tremendously in terms of quality, credibility and reliability. Website sources will not substitute for the academic readings listed in this handout.

Reading List by Topics

PLEASE NOTE: we are expecting all participants in this course to read a lot. If you are the kind of student who finds this expectation daunting, then we’d suggest (gently) that you might be happier in another course in which expectations are perhaps lower. There are, inevitably, a lot of perspectives (some overtly partisan) that you need to expose yourself to in order to develop deep understanding of US elections. The readings under each topic are listed alphabetically by author. As a general rule, you are expected to read at least 3 pieces each week: the relevant chapter(s) from the course text, the weekly LEARN reading(s), and an additional book chapter, sections or journal articles. You will be expected to read more deeply and widely when you are leading a seminar. Use the lists below for your seminar, issue brief and essay readings as well. Unless otherwise noted, all works listed are available on-line, in the library reserve book collection (HUB), or in the main stacks. Where known, library shelfmarks are provided at first listing, but it is always best to check the on-line catalogue (DiscoverEd) for updated information.

Note: Asterisked [*] readings offer either a particularly relevant or insightful analysis, or a particularly useful overview.

WEEK 1 (19 Sept) INTRODUCTION: MAKING SENSE OF US ELECTIONS We realise you may not be able to do much before Week 1’s seminar (especially as it is on a Monday), but give it a go and/or catch up as best you can afterwards. These further readings will also be useful in subsequent weeks. REQUIRED READING: 1. Polsby et al, Presidential Elections, chs 1 & 3 2. LEARN reading: Gideon Rachman, ‘Trump and BREXIT feed off the same anger’, Financial Times, 3 August 2016 (& article from John’s email of 17 August). FURTHER *Achen & Bartels, Democracy for Realists, (e-book) ch1 Values, creed and culture *Foley, M. (2007) The American Credo. The Place of Ideas in American Politics JK275 Fol *Inglehart, Ronald, and Pippa Norris (2016). ‘Trump, Brexit, and the Rise of Populism: Economic Have-Nots and

Cultural Backlash.’ HKS Faculty Research Working Paper Series RWP16-026, August.

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*Kamarck. E. (2016) Why Presidents Fail and How They Can Succeed Again (Washington DC: Brookings Institution Press) (e-book)

Katznelson, I. and Kesselman, M. (2002) The Politics of Power JK271 Kat., Intro

Lepore, J. (2016) ‘A Tale of Two Conventions’, The New Yorker, 6 August (on LEARN).

*Levin, Y. (2016) The Fractured Republic: Renewing America’s Social Contract in an Age of Individualism (New York: Basic Books).

Lipset, S M (1991) ‘Equality and the American Creed’ Progressive Policy Institute Lipset McKay, D. (2013), American Politics and Society, 8th ed, ch 1 and/or 2 (any edition, JK274 Mack) Schattschneider, E. (1960) Semi-sovereign People. A Realist View of Democracy in America (JK 271 Sch) Szymanskik S and Zimbalist , A. (2005) National Pastime. How Americans Play Baseball and the Rest of the

World Plays Soccer. GV716 Szy de Tocqueville, A. (2000; 1966) Democracy in America JK 216 Toc [also excerpted in Hess, (2002) American

Social and Political Thought. A Reader, chapt 10] Voting and Elections: Structures and Rules American Presidency Project (UCSB) (2016) 2016 Presidential Election Documents

http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/2016_election.php Burden, B and Stewart, C. (2014) The Measure of American Elections , Introduction (voting registration and

voting laws) (e-book) *Dahl, R. (2002) How Democratic is the American Constitution?, KF4550 Dah (hard copy or e-book), chapter 4 Edwards, G.C. (2016) ‘What do we want in a President?’, (Princeton University Press blog)

http://blog.press.princeton.edu/2016/04/04/what-do-we-really-want-in-a-president/ *McKay, D. (2013) American Politics and Society 8, ch6 and 7 Putnam, J. (2015) ‘Everything you need to know about how the presidential primary works’, Monkey Cage

Blog, Washington Post 12 May *Sides, J. and Vavreck, S. (2013) The Gamble: Choice and Chance in the 2012 Presidential Election

Chapter 1 (The Ante) http://press.princeton.edu/chapters/s10350.pdf US Government. Department of State (2012) USA Elections in Brief (very basic introduction) Available at:

photos.state.gov/ Wayne, S. (2016) The Road to the White House, 2016 : the politics of presidential elections, Chapter 1 (on

order).

SEMINAR TOPIC FOR WEEK 1 (19 SEPT): INTRODUCTION

Seminar programme and requirements explained. Introductory lecture on culture and rules NB: interactive lecture will be in hour 2.

WEEK 2 (26 Sept) THE HISTORY OF US ELECTIONS

REQUIRED READINGS: 1. Polsby et al, Presidential Elections, ch 4 2. Any piece from the list below 3. LEARN reading: Edward Luce, ‘One Nation Divided’, Financial Times, 23 July 2016.

FURTHER *Achen & Bartels, Democracy for Realists, ch3 *American Presidency Project (UCSB) (2016) 2016 Presidential Election Documents

http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/elections.php (lists electoral college votes for every past US election).

Ansolabehere, S. et al (2006) ‘Television and the incumbency advantage in US elections’, Legislative Studies Quarterly, 31(4): 469-90.

Benson, J., Silbey, J.H., Bogue, A.G., Flanigan, W.H. (1978) The History of American Political Behavior, Princeton NJ: Princeton University Press, JK1965 His.

Brogan, H. (1990) The Penguin History of the USA (London: Penguin), E178 Bro.

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Burns, James MacGregor ‘Showdown: The Election of 1800’ (peaceful transfer of power not assumed) in Kernell, S and Smith, S (eds.) (2000) Principles and Practice of American Politics (HUB)

*Daley, D., Ratf***ed, (on order) ch1 Dolan, K. (2014) ‘Gender Stereotypes, Candidate Evaluations and Voting for Woman Candidates: What Really

Matters?’, Political Research Quarterly, 67(1): 96-107. Druckman, J.M. (2003) ‘The Power of Television Images: the First Kennedy-Nixon Debate Revisited’, Journal of

Politics, 65 (May): 559-71. Felknor, B.L. (1992) Political Mischief: Smear, Sabotage and Reform in US Elections (sadly, no longer in print;

but numerous book reviews available from library). *Isenberg, N. (2016) White Trash: the 400 Year Untold Story of Class in America (New York: Viking), HN90.S6. Karol, D. and Miguel, E. (2007) ‘The electoral cost of war: Iraq casualties and the 2004 US Presidential

Election’, Journal of Politics, 69(3): 633-48. *Leighley, J.E. (2010) The Oxford Handbook of American Elections and Political Behaviour (Oxford and New

York: Oxford University Press) e-book. McGinniss, J. (1968 or later eds) Selling of the President (Also extracted in Shafritz, J. and Wienberg, L (2000)

Classics in American Government (both available in the HUB) Mead, W.R. (2002) Special Providence: American Foreign Policy and How it Changed the World (London and

New York: Routledge), ch1, E183.7 Mea. Nelson, M. (2010) The Elections of 2008 (Washington DC: CQ Press), JK1968 2008 Ele. Ranney, A. (1986) The American Elections of 1984 (Durham NC: University of North Carolina Press), E879 Ame. *Shafer, Byron E. (2003) The Two Majorities and the Puzzle of Modern American Politics (Lawrence KS:

University of Kansas Press), JK2261 Sha. Wayne, S.J. (2004 or 1980) The Road to the White House: the Politics of Presidential Elections (London and

Belmont CA: Macmillan and Thompson), JK528 Way. *White, T.H. (1960 or any version) The Making of the President (E837.7 Whi or E859 Whi). NB: our guest speakers (2nd hour) have kindly provided preparatory readings for their session: The Making of the President 1800 (Frank Cogliano) The election of 1800, which the winner, Thomas Jefferson, called the ‘Revolution of 1800’, resulted in the first electoral crisis in American history which threatened civil war and disunion, and exposed a significant flaw in the Electoral College. It also featured vicious personal attacks. It anticipated many of the less salubrious aspects of presidential politics.

Primary Sources: James Callender’s The Prospect Before Us (excerpts from the indictment)

http://www.fjc.gov/history/home.nsf/page/tu_sedition_hd_jc_indictment.html Letter from Alexander Hamilton, Concerning the Public Conduct and Character of John Adams, Esq. President of

the United States (New York: Printed for John Lang, by George F. Hopkins, 1800). http://founders.archives.gov/documents/Hamilton/01-25-02-0110-0002

Thomas Jefferson, First Inaugural Address, March 4, 1801 https://jeffersonpapers.princeton.edu/selected-documents/first-inaugural-address-0

Secondary Sources: Joanne B. Freeman (2012) ‘A Qualified Revolution: The Presidential Election of 1800’ in Francis D. Cogliano,

ed., A Companion to Thomas Jefferson (Oxford: Blackwell, 2012), pp.145-64. Jack N. Rakove (2002) ‘The Political Presidency: Discovery and Invention,’ in James Horn, Jan Ellen Lewis and

Peter S. Onuf, eds., The Revolution of 1800: Democracy, Race and the New Republic (Charlottesville VA: University of Virginia Press).

The Role of Foreign Policy in US Elections (Fabian Hilfrich) There is a common perception, in part grounded in the legacy of isolationism, that American voters rarely care about foreign policy and that they consequently do not choose their presidents on account of their foreign policy views. I would like to discuss and hear your comments in this regard and, for that purpose, want to focus on the 1968 election.

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Primary Sources: Editorial Note (Doc. 155) and Notes of a Meeting, March 26, 1968 (Doc. 158), at

http://history.state.gov/historicaldocuments/frus1964-68v06 Johnson, Lyndon B., ‘Address to the Nation’, 31 March 1968, http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu Cronkite, Walter, ‘We are mired in Stalemate’ Broadcast, February 27,1968,

https://facultystaff.richmond.edu/~ebolt/history398/Cronkite_1968.html (broadcast excerpt on youtube!)

Secondary Sources: Gould, Lewis L. (1993) 1968: The Election That Changed America (Chicago: Ivan R. Dee). LaFeber, Walter (2005) The Deadly Bet: LBJ, Vietnam, and the 1968 Election (Lanham, Md. and Oxford:

Rowman & Littlefield). Sieg, Kent G. (1996) ‘The 1968 Presidential Election and Peace in Vietnam’, Presidential Studies Quarterly 26

(Fall), 1062–80. Small, Melvin (2004) ‘The Election of 1968’, Diplomatic History 28 (September), 513-528.

SEMINAR TOPIC FOR WEEK 2 (26 SEPT) What can we learn about the 2016 US election from past elections?

WEEK 3 (3 Oct) THEORY & PRACTICE: CAMPAIGNS & VOTING BEHAVIOUR REQUIRED READINGS: 1. Polsby et al, Presidential Elections, chs 5 2. Any piece from the list below 3. LEARN reading: Elizabeth Drew, ‘American Democracy Betrayed’, New York Review of Books, 8 July 2016. FURTHER General *Achen & Bartels, Democracy for Realists, ch2 & 4 Cohen, J. (2014) ‘The 2012 Elections’ in DAP 7, pp32-53. Daley, D., Ratf***ed, chs 2-4 McKay, D. (2013) American Politics and Society 8, ch 6 and 7 (earlier editions also fine) Wayne, S. (2012) Is This Any Way to Run a Democratic Election? 4th ed. (earlier editions in library) Candidates, Campaigning and Strategies Brinkley, A. (2010) From Theodore White to Game Change : A Review Essay Political Science Quarterly,

Vol.125(3), pp.493-503,358 Cicero, Quintus Tullius (and James Carville) (2012) ‘Campaign Tips From Cicero: The Art of Politics, From the

Tiber to the Potomac’ Foreign Affairs, May/June 2012 (e-journal) Danner, M. (2016) ‘The Magic of Donald Trump’, New York Review of Books, 26 May 2016 (on LEARN). Dowling, C. and Wichowsky, A (2015) Attacks without Consequence? Candidates, Parties, Groups, and the

Changing Face of Negative Advertising American Journal of Political Science, Jan 2015, Vol.59(1), pp.19-36

Heilemann, J. and Halperin, M. (2010) Game Change Obama and the Clintons, McCain and Palin, and the race of a lifetime. Main Library (HUB SHORT LOAN) - Ground floor (E906 Hei. )

McGinnis, J. 1968 (or later ed) The Selling of the President HUB - E851 Macg. (Also extracted in Shafritz, J. and Wienberg, L (2000) Classics in American Government (also available in the HUB)

Nelson, C. (2000) Campaign Warriors: The Role of Political Consultants in Elections JK2281Cam. Popkin, S L. (2012). The Candidate: What it Takes to Win – and Hold – the White House (e-book) Waismel-Manor, I. ‘Spinning Forward: Professionalization Among Campaign Consultants’ Journal of Political

Marketing, 2011, Vol.10(4), p.350-371 Explaining Voting Behaviour

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Abramowitz, A. 2008. “It's about time: Forecasting the 2008 presidential election with the time-for-change model’ International Journal of Forecasting, vol.24(2), pp.209-217

Campbell, J., et al (2013) ‘Recap: Forecasting the 2012 Election’ PS: Political Science & Politics, vol 46 (1), pp.37-38

Caplan, B (2007) The Myth of the Rational Voter: Why Democracies Choose Bad Policies (HD87 Cap) Erikson, R and Wlezien, C. (2014) ‘Forecasting US Presidential Elections Using Economic and Noneconomic

Fundamentals’ PS, Political Science & Politics, Vol.47(2), pp.313-316 Fiorina, M. (1981) Retrospective voting in American national elections JK1967 Fio Mayer, W. G. (2010), ‘Retrospective Voting in Presidential Primaries’. Presidential Studies Quarterly, vol

40: 660–685 Popkin, S. (1991) The Reasoning Voter : Communication and Persuasion in Presidential Campaigns (on reserve,

JK 525 Pop) PS: Political Science and Politics (2012) 45(4) Symposium: Forecasting The 2012 American National Elections

(Special Issue, October 2012) Sides, J. and Vavreck, L. (2012) The Gamble. Choice and Chance in the 2012 Presidential Election.(book on

order; chapter 1 available here http://press.princeton.edu/chapters/s10350.pdf

nb: Excerpts of several of the classic pieces are also available in Kernell, S and Smith, S (eds.) (2000) Principles and Practice of American Politics or Shafritz, J. and Wienberg, L (2000) Classics in American Government (both available in the HUB).

See also:

SEMINAR TOPIC FOR WEEK 3 (3 OCT) What makes a US Presidential campaign successful?

WEEK 4 (10 OCT) PARTIES & US ELECTIONS REQUIRED READINGS: 1. Polsby et al, Presidential Elections, ch 7 2. Any piece from the list below 3. Learn READING: Ross Douhat & Reihan Salam, ‘A Cure for Trumpism’, New York Times, 15 July 2016. FURTHER Parties *Achen & Bartels, Democracy for Realists, ch9 Beaulieu, E. (2014) ‘From voter ID to party ID: How political parties affect perceptions of election fraud in the

U.S. ‘ Electoral Studies, Vol.35, pp.24-32 *Cain, B. and Ryan, P. (2014) ‘Political Parties’ in Developments in American Politics 7, pp 54-74. *Daley, D., Ratf***ed, ch7 Douhat, R. and Salam, R. (2009) Grand New Party: How Republicans Can Win the Working Class and Save the

American Dream (JK2271) Democratic Party Platform, 2016 Available at: http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/papers_pdf/117717.pdf Downs, A. (1957) An Economic Theory of Democracy JF 1351 Dow Fiorina M. (2002) ‘Parties and Partisanship. A 40 year Retrospective’ Political Behavior, (Special Issue) vol. 2:

p93-115 Foran, C. (2016) ‘Can Jill Stein Lead a Revolution?’, The Atlantic, 28 July (on LEARN). Lawrence, E., Sides, J. and Farrell, H. (2010). ‘Self-Segregation or Deliberation? Blog Readership, Participation,

and Polarization in American Politics.’ Perspectives on Politics 8(1): 141-157. McKay, D., (2013) American Politics and Society 8th ed. ch 5 Maisel, S (2007) American Political Parties and Elections. A Very Short Introduction (JK 1965 Mai) Mayer, W. G. (2010) How Parties Nominate Presidents in The Oxford Handbook of American Political Parties

and Interest Groups. JK2261 Oxf (or e-book). Rapoport, R. (2010) Winning Isn't Everything: Third Parties and the American Two‐Party System in The Oxford

Handbook of American Political Parties and Interest Groups. JK2261 Oxf (or e-book).

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Shea, D. (2010) The Road Less Taken: New Directions in American Party Politics (party resurgence) in The Oxford Handbook of American Political Parties and Interest Groups. JK2261 Oxf (or e-book).

Ornstein, N. and Mann, T. (2011) ‘The Pitfalls of a Third-Party Candidacy’ Washington Post, September 13,. Pew Research Center (2016) (US Politics and Policy) ‘Partisanship and Political Animosity in 2016’ Polsby et al, Presidential Elections, ch 2 Republican Party Platform, 2016, Available at: http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/ws/index.php?pid=117718 Weigel, L. (2016) ‘ Once in control of their party, conservatives agonize over the election and beyond’

Washington Post, 13 August. Polarization Abrajano, M. and Alvarez, R. M. (2011) ‘Hispanic Public Opinion and Partisanship in America’ Political Science

Quarterly vol 126 (2) 255-86. Abramowitz, A. (2010) The Disappearing Center. Engaged Citizens, Polarization, and American Democracy

(HUB, JK2261 Abr) Daley, D. Ratf***ed: The True Story Behind the Secret Plan to Steal American Democracy (on order) Feller, Gelman and Shor, E. (2012) ‘Red State/Blue State Divisions in the 2012 Presidential Election’ The Forum

2012, 10(4): 127-131. Fiorina, M. (2013) ‘America's Missing Moderates: Hiding in Plain Sight’ The American Interest March/April.

http://www.the-american-interest.com/articles/2013/02/12/americas-missing-moderates-hiding-in-plain-sight/

Fiorina, M. and Samuel J. Abrams, (2008) ‘Political Polarization in the American Public,’ Annual Review of Political Science, 11 (June): 563–588.

Fiorina M. (2002) ‘Parties and Partisanship. A 40 year Retrospective’ Political Behavior, (Special Issue) vol. 2: p93-115

Guber, D. L (2013) ‘A Cooling Climate for Change? Party Polarization and the Politics of Global Warming’ American Behavioral Scientist Jan vol. 57 (1): 93-115

Jacobson, R 2013. ‘How the Economy and Partisanship Shaped the 2012 Presidential and Congressional Elections.’ Presidential Studies Quarterly vol 128: 1-38

*Jacobson, G. (2013). ‘Partisan Polarization in American Politics: A Background Paper’ Presidential Studies Quarterly (Special Issue: Symposium on Governing in Polarized Times) Volume 43, Issue 4, pages 688–708

Lepore, J. (2016) ‘A Tale of Two Conventions’, The New Yorker, 6 August (on LEARN).

Nivola, P. (2006) Red and blue nation? : characteristics and causes of America's polarized politics JK2261 Red. HUB

*Panagopoulos, C. (2016) All About that base: Changing Campaign Strategies in U.S. Presidential elections Party Politics, Vol.22(2), pp.179-190

Public Opinion Quarterly (2016) ‘Special Issue: Party Polarization’, 69(5). Smidt, Corwin(2014) ‘Dynamics in Partisanship during American Presidential Campaigns’ Public Opinion

Quarterly,Vol.78, p.303 Wroe, A. (2013) ‘Culture Wars. Is American Polarizing?’ In Dumbrell, J. (ed) Issues in American Politics:

Polarized politics in the age of Obama (e-book)

SEMINAR TOPIC FOR WEEK 4 (10 OCT) US political parties are considered weaker than parties in other democracies . Does that mean US parties don’t

control US Election campaigns?

WEEK 5 (17 OCT) MEDIA, MONEY & US ELECTIONS REQUIRED READINGS: 1. Polsby et al, Presidential Elections, chs 3 & 5 (revisit) 2. Any 2 pieces (one from each list) below 3. Learn READING: Mayer, J. (2016) ‘Is this the end of Big Money Politics?’ New Yorker, 3 March 2016 FURTHER

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*Daley, D., Ratf***ed, ch5 (most other chapters also useful) Campaign Finance Confessore, N. and Corasaniti, N. (2016) ‘Fueled by Small Donations, Donald Trump Makes Up Major Financial

Ground’, New York Times, 3 August (on LEARN). Gulati, G. (2012) ‘Super PACs and Financing the 2012 Presidential Election’ Society vol 49: 409-17 Kammer, A. 2012 ‘Super facts about super pacs’ American Prospect 31 Jan Available at:

http://prospect.org/article/super-facts-about-super-pacs#.Tyra0a8a9lg.email *McSweeney, D (2013) American Campaign Finance in Comparative Perspective In Dumbrell, J. (ed) Issues in

American Politics: Polarized politics in the age of Obama (e-book) Rothenberg, S. (2012) ‘How Citizens United Is Affecting Campaigns’ Roll Call, May 22. www.rollcall.com/ Sides, J, Shaw, D. Grossman, M. and Lipsitz, K. (2012) ‘Financing Campaigns’ in Campaigns and Elections: Rules,

Reality, Strategy, Choice, available at: http://media.wwnorton.com/cms/excerpts/Campaigns_Ch04.pdf

Sides, J. 2011. ‘The Moneyball of Campaign Advertising (Part I).’ FiveThirtyEight blog, The New York Times. Part II http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/10/12/the-moneyball-of-campaign-advertising-part-2/

Toobin, J. (2012) Money Unlimited: How Chief Justice John Roberts orchestrated the Citizens United decision The New Yorker, May 21,

Media and Consultants Brinkley, A. (2010) From Theodore White to Game Change : A Review Essay Political Science Quarterly,

Vol.125(3), pp.493-503,358 Davies, P. (2014) ‘Media and Politics’ (especially sections on 2012 election) in Developments in American

Politics 7, pp93-106 Dowling, C. and Wichowsky, A (2015) Attacks without Consequence? Candidates, Parties, Groups, and the

Changing Face of Negative Advertising American Journal of Political Science, vol.59(1), pp.19-36 Geer, J. (2012) ‘The News Media and the Rise of Negativity in Presidential Campaigns’ PS: Political Science &

Politics July journals.cambridge.org/ Geer, J and Vevreck, L. (2014) ‘Negativity, Information, and Candidate Position-Taking’ Political

Communication, 2014, Vol.31(2), p.218-236 Gray, J. (2006) In Defense of Negativity: Attack Ads in Presidential Campaigns (e-book) Heilemann, J. and Halperin, M. (2010) Game Change: Obama and the Clintons, McCain and Palin, and the race

of a lifetime. Main Library (HUB SHORT LOAN) - Ground floor (E906 Hei. ) McGinniss, J. (1968 or later eds) Selling of the President (Also extracted in Shafritz, J. and Wienberg, L (2000)

Classics in American Government (both available in the HUB) Stromer-Galley, J. (2014) Presidential Campaigning in the Internet Age (e-book) Sullivan, D. (1992) ‘Political Campaigns and the Media’, Journal of Communication, 42(3): 185-91 (on LEARN). Towner, T. and Dulio, D. (2011) ‘An experiment of campaign effects during the YouTube election’ New Media

& Society vol13 (4) , p626-p644. Waismel-Manor, I. ‘Spinning Forward: Professionalization Among Campaign Consultants’ Journal of Political

Marketing, 2011, Vol.10(4), p.350-371 White, D. (2016) ‘What Google and Twitter Can Tell Us About 2016’ Time Magazine 22 February

SEMINAR TOPIC FOR WEEK 5 (17 OCT) How much do money and the media ‘distort’ the process of US elections?

WEEK 6 (24 Oct) ECONOMIC POLICY, PERCEPTIONS & THE US ELECTION REQUIRED READINGS: 1. Polsby et al, Presidential Elections, ch 7 2. Any piece from the list below 3. Learn readings: Martin Wolf, ‘How to Defeat Right Wing Populism’, Financial Times, 25 May 2016; Alan Abramowitz, ‘Forecasting the 2016 Presidential Election: Will Time for a Change Mean Time for Trump?’, Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball, 16 August 2016.

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FURTHER *Achen & Bartels, Democracy for Realists, ch6 *Duch, R.M. and Stevenson, R.T. (2008) The Economic Vote: How Political and Economic Institutions Condition

Election Results (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press) (e) Evans, G. and M. Pickup (2010) ‘Reversing the Causal Arrow: the Political Conditions of Economic Perceptions

in the 2000-04 Presidential Election Cycle’, Journal of Politics, 72(4): 1236-51. Irwin, N (2016) ‘How is the Economy Doing? It may depend on your party, and $1’, The Upshot, New York

Times, 1 January *Isenberg, N. (2016) White Trash: the 400 Year Untold Story of Class in America (New York: Viking), HN90.S6. *Jacobson, G. (2013) ‘How the Economy and Partisanship Shaped the 2012 Presidential and Congressional

Elections’ Political Science Quarterly, 128(1), pp.1-38. Lewis-Beck, M.S., Nadeau, R. and Elias, A. (2008) ‘Economics, Party and the Vote’, American Journal of Political

Science, 52(1): 84-95. MacKuen, M.B. et al (1992) ‘Peasants or Bankers? The American Electorate and the US Economy’, American

Political Science Review, 86(3): 597-611. Nadeau, R. and Lewis-Beck, M.S. (2001) ‘National Economic Voting in US Presidential Elections’, Journal of

Politics, 63 (February): 159-81.

SEMINAR TOPIC FOR WEEK 6 (24 OCT) ‘It’s the Economy, Stupid’. Does this campaign adage still hold true in 2016?

WEEK 7 (31 OCT) FOREIGN POLICY & THE US ELECTION REQUIRED READINGS:

1. Jervis, R. (2016) ‘Introduction: Presidential Elections and Foreign Policy’, Political Studies Quarterly, vol 131 (2) Summer 217-236.

2. Learn READINGS: Colin Dueck, ‘Strategic Planning for the Next President’, Orbis, 15 April 2016, pp.331-52. Gideon Rachman, ‘Room for Manouevre’, Financial Times, 1 August 2016. Zalmay Khalilizad, ‘The Emerging Trump Doctrine’, The National Interest, 3 August 2016.

FURTHER Amstutz, M. (2013) Evangelicals and American Foreign Policy (e-book) *Armacost, M (2015) Ballots, Bullets, and Bargains : American Foreign Policy and Presidential Elections. (e-book) *Allison, G T. and Zelikow, P (1999) Essence of Decision Making Baum, M and Potter, P. (2008) ‘The Relationships Between Mass Media, Public Opinion, and Foreign Policy:

Toward a Theoretical Synthesis’ Annual Review of Political Science, Vol. 11: 39-65 (e-journal) Busby, J and Jonathan, M. (2012) Republican Elites and Foreign Policy Attitudes Political Science Quarterly vol

127 (1), p105-12. Busby, J and Monten, J and Inboden, W. (2012) ‘American Foreign Policy is Already Post-Partisan: Why Politics

Does Stop at the Water's Edge’, Foreign Affairs, May 30, 2012. Campbell, J.E. (2005) ‘Why Bush Won the Presidential Election of 2004: Incumbency, Ideology, Terrorism and

Turnout’, Political Science Quarterly, 120 (Summer): 219-42. Dumbrell, J. (2014) ‘Foreign and Security Policy’ in Developments in American Politics 7, pp244-63 Durham, M (2008) ‘The American Right and Iran’ Political Quarterly vol 79(4) (e-journal) Gates, J.M. (1977) ‘Philippine Guerrillas, American Anti-Imperialism, and the Election of 1900’, Pacific Historical

Review 46 (February): 51–64. Gelb, L. (2012) ‘The Elusive Obama Doctrine’, National Interest, Sept-Oct. http://nationalinterest.org/ Goldberg, J. (2016) ‘The Obama Doctrine’, The Atlantic, April.

http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2016/04/the-obama-doctrine/471525/. Hess, S. (1980) ‘Does Foreign Policy Really Matter?’, The Wilson Quarterly Vol. 4 (1) (Winter): 96-112.

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Jacobson, G.C. (2010) ‘Perception, Memory and Partisan Polarisation on the Iraq War’, Political Science Quarterly, 125(1): 31-56.

*Lieberman, R. (2009a) ‘The “Israel Lobby” and American Politics’ Perspectives on Politics Vol. 7(2) June: 235-257 (e journal)

Lieberman, R. (2009b) ‘Rejoinder to Mearsheimer and Walt’ Perspectives on Politics Vol. 7(2) June: 275-281 (e journal)

*McCormick, J.M. (ed) (2012) The Domestic Sources of US Foreign Policy, 6th edn. (Lanham MD and Oxford: Rowman and Littlefield (E840) (e).

*Mead, W R (2011) ‘The Tea Party and American Foreign Policy’, Foreign Affairs, March/April, 90 (2) Mearsheimer, J. and S. Walt (2009) ‘The Blind Man and the Elephant in the Room: Robert Lieberman and the

Israel Lobby’ Perspectives on Politics Vol. 7(2) June: 259-273 Miller, L.B. (2004) ‘A Changing Universe: Foreign Policy and U.S. Presidential Elections’, The Brown Journal of

World Affairs Vol. 11 (1) (Summer/Fall 2004): 39-44. Newman, B. and Lammert, K. (2011), ‘Divided Government and Foreign Relations Approval.’ Presidential

Studies Quarterly, 41: 375–392 Newhouse, J. (2009) ‘Diplomacy, Inc.’ (foreign interests lobbying Wash DC) Foreign Affairs vol 8(3) May/Je

2009 (e) Norman J. Ornstein, N.J. and Schmitt, M. (1988) ‘Foreign Policy and the Election’, The National Interest No. 12

(Summer): 3-10. Petrocik, J.R. (1996) ‘Issue Ownership in Presidential Elections with a 1980 Case Study’, American Journal of

Political Science, 40 (August): 825-50. Political Science Quarterly, ‘Special Issue on Presidential Elections and Foreign Policy’, 131 (2), Summer 2016. Sowmya A. and J.A. Krosnick (2003) ‘The Impact of Attitudes toward Foreign Policy Goals on Public Preferences

among Presidential Candidates: A Study of Issue Publics and the Attentive Public in the 2000 U.S.Presidential Election’, Presidential Studies Quarterly, vol 33 (1): 31-71.

SEMINAR TOPIC FOR WEEK 7 (31 OCT) To what extent is foreign policy likely to influence the US election result? Why?

WEEK 8 (7 NOV): POLLING AND THE US ELECTIONS REQUIRED READINGS: 1. Polsby et al, Presidential Elections, ch 5 (revisit) 2. Any of the 2 works listed below 3. Learn READING: Ryan Lizza, ‘Occupied Territory’, New Yorker, 20 June 2016. FURTHER Bishop, G.F. (2004) The Illusion of Public Opinion: Fact and Artefact in American Opinion Polls (Lanham MD and

Oxford: Rowman & Littlefield), Chia, S.C. and Chang, T-K. (2015) ‘Not My Horse: Voter Preferences, Media Sources and Hostile Poll Reports in

Election Campaigns’, International Journal of Public Opinion Research, 27 Erikson, R. and Wlezien, C (2012) Markets vs. polls as election predictors: An historical assessment Electoral

Studies, September, Vol.31(3): 532-539. *Glas, J.M. et al (2016) ‘There is Nothing Wrong with Kansas: the Effect of Race and Economics on Voting

Correctly in US Presidential Elections, Presidential Studies Quarterly, 46(1): 158-72. Graefe, A. (2014) ‘Accuracy of Vote Expectations Surveys Forecasting Elections’, Public Opinion Quarterly,

78(S1): 204-32. Hanson, S. and Zogby, J. (2010) ‘The polls-trends: attitudes about the American dream’, Public Opinion

Quarterly, 74(3): 570-84. *Jones, R.P. (2016) The End of White Christian America (New York: Simon & Schuster) (BL65.P7).

* Published as exchange between Lieberman and Mearsheimer and Walt; best if read in sequence: Lieberman (2009a), Mearsheimer and Walt (2009), Lieberman (2009b)

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Lavrakas, P.J. and Traugot, M.W. (2000) ‘Election Polls, the News Media and Democracy’ (London: Chatham House), HN90.P8 Ele.

Patterson, T.E. (2005) ‘Of Polls, Mountains: US Journalists and their use of Election Surveys’, Political Opinion Quarterly, 69(5): 716-24.

*Searles, K., Ginn, M.H. and Nickens, J. (2016) ‘For Whom the Poll Airs: Comparing Polls Results to Television Poll Coverage’, Political Opinion Quarterly, 69(5):

Segovia, F. and Defever, R. (2010) ‘The polls-Trends: American public opinion on immigrants and immigration policy’, Public Opinion Quarterly, 74(2): 375-94.

Wuthnow, R. (2015) Inventing American Religion: Polls, Surveys and the Tenuous Quest for a Nation’s Faith (Oxford and New York: Oxford University Press).

SEMINAR TOPIC FOR WEEK 8 (7 NOV) Is polling becoming a less reliable indicator of how American elections are determined?

WEEK 9 (14 Nov) ETHNICITY, DEMOGRAPHICS and the OUTCOME REQUIRED READINGS: Polsby et al, Presidential Elections, ch 2 2. Any piece from the list below Learn READING: Richa Chaturvedi, ‘A Closer Look at the Gender Gap in Presidential Voting’, Pew Research Centre, 28 July 2016. FURTHER *Achen & Bartels, Democracy for Realists, ch8 *Anderson, C. (2016) White Rage: the Unspoken Truth about Our Racial Divide (London: Bloomsbury) (E185). Carlin, D. and Winfrey. K. (2009) ‘Have You Come a Long Way Baby? Hillary Clinton, Sarah Palin and Sexism in

2008 Campaign Coverage’, Communication Studies, 60 (4), 326-343. Carroll, S. and Fox, R. (2014) Gender and Elections: Shaping the Future of American Politics. (e-book). Conners, J. (2010) ‘Barack Versus Hillary: Race, Gender, and Political Cartoon Imagery of the 2008 Presidential

Primaries’ American Behavioral Scientist, Vol.54(3), pp.298-312 Dittmar, K. (2015) Navigating Gendered Terrain: Stereotypes and Strategy in Political Campaigns. (e-book). Dolan, K (2014) When does gender matter? women candidates and gender stereotypes in American elections

(e-book) *The Economist (2016) ‘Single Women: Why Put a Ring on It?’, 16 April (on LEARN). Hayes, D. and Lawless, J. (2016) Women on the run : gender, media, and political campaigns in a polarized era

(e-book) Note: studies congressional races *Jones, R.P. (2016) The End of White Christian America (New York: Simon & Schuster). Public Opinion Quarterly (2016) special issue on party polarization, 80(1). Redlawsk, D. and Tolberg, C (2014) ‘Symbolic Racism and Emotional Responses to the 2012 Presidential

Candidates’ Political Research Quarterly, 2014, Vol.67(3), pp.680-694 Rucker, Pl (2016) ‘For millennial voters, the Clinton vs. Trump choice “feels like a joke”’ Washington Post 13

August Segovia, F. and Defever, R. (2010) ‘The polls-Trends: American public opinion on immigrants and immigration

policy’, Public Opinion Quarterly, 74(2): 375-94. Trillin, C. (2016) Jackson 1964: And Other Dispatches from Fifty Years of Reporting on Race in America (New

York and London: Random House) E185.615 Wuthnow, R. (2015) Inventing American Religion: Polls, Surveys and the Tenuous Quest for a Nation’s Faith

(Oxford and New York: Oxford University Press).

SEMINAR TOPIC FOR WEEK 9 (14 NOV) Explain the voting behaviour and impact of the following groups in the 2016 election: women, Latinos, youth.

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WEEK 10 (21 NOV) CONCLUSION: WHAT DETERMINED THE RESULT? REQUIRED READINGS:

1. Polsby et al, Presidential Elections, ch 7 (revisit) 2. Any piece from the list below OR review most relevant readings from lists above 3. Learn READING: James Surowiecki, ‘The Perils of Executive Action’, New Yorker, 8 & 15 August 2016;

Lexington, ‘Gridlock Central’, The Economist, 6 August 2016. FURTHER *Achen & Bartels, Democracy for Realists, ch11 Beer, S (1993) To Make a Nation JK 325 Bee *Daley, D., Ratf***ed, ch12 *Dahl, R. (2002) How Democratic is the American Constitution?, ch7 KF4550 Dah. *Kamarck. E. (2016) Why Presidents Fail and How They Can Succeed Again (Washington DC: Brookings

Institution Press) (e) *Levin, Y. (2016) The Fractured Republic: Renewing America’s Social Contract in an Age of Individualism (New

York: Basic Books).

SEMINAR TOPIC FOR WEEK 10 (21 NOV) What really determined the result of the 2016 US election?

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APPENDIX 1: SEMINAR ARRANGEMENTS PURPOSE The second hour is designed to give you an opportunity to discuss the readings, share your ideas and try out arguments with other students. Their usefulness is directly proportionate to your willingness to prepare and participate actively. FORMAT A total of 4 weeks will be led by student groups who have met in advance to plan the discussion. Other seminars will feature:

group work and presentations;

small group discussion or debates;

open discussion;

guest speakers. EXPECTATIONS AND REQUIREMENTS Participation in seminars is monitored and assessed (see below). Failure to attend regularly will lower the student’s mark. Expectations: 1. Everyone comes prepared to participate; everyone gets a chance to contribute. We expect informed, sustained participation throughout the semester. 2. Working in groups of 3 or 4 students will have the chance to lead on one week’s topic.

Your team will need to: a. Provide a BRIEF overview of the topic and answer to the assigned question. You needn’t cover all relevant points. Rather, distil for us a few key points and present them clearly. Your presentation should not be more than 15 minutes. b. Lead the discussion/activity. You must include some interactive element that involves the rest of the class. These might be discussion questions, quizzes, debate, role play or other activity. The activity/discussion should last about half an hour. Students will be assigned to groups. On 19 Sept topics will be randomly assigned to groups. (Groups can swap topics if both groups are willing). Your assigned group will lead one of the following seminars:

1. week 3 – Campaigns and Voting Behaviour 2. week 5 – The Media, Money and US Elections 3. week 6 – Economic Policy, Perceptions and the 2016 Election 4. week 7 – Foreign Policy and the US Election

Note: You will be assessed as a group and the division of labour within groups is up to group members themselves to decide. Make should make sure that your group’s presentations keep to the 15 minute presentation limit. Groups will have either 3 or 4 members. If multiple members are presenting be sure to allow ample time for all participants.

3. Students will use LEARN to post their slides/notes or presentation. Moreover, students can post follow-up questions, further reading, presentations, ideas or announcements. SEMINAR ASSESSMENT Seminar assessment will be worth 10% of your course mark. The seminar mark will be based on your group work and overall individual seminar performance. A Seminar Assessment Criteria sheet (attached to this course guide) will be discussed in the first seminar.

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The most successful formula for earning a high seminar mark is consistent, high-quality performance throughout the course (rather than one stunning presentation but poor performance the other weeks). The quality rather than quantity of your contributions will be monitored. It is *not* a race to see who can say the most. Rather, students will be rewarded for their capacity to make relevant points, bring in the readings where appropriate, listen to and engage with others. Feedback will be provided on your performance. In week 6 we will provide you with a brief progress report which, whilst not binding, will give you an idea of how you’re doing and why. In addition, any student is welcome to come speak to John or Elizabeth about their performance during Guidance and Feedback hours or by appointment during term.

CIPS: US Election , 2016 SEMINAR ASSESSMENT

Criteria Mark

Performance

Strong ↔ Weak

Attendance and preparation

Student is always present and prepared; shows evidence of reading.

Student is rarely absent or late and is usually well prepared.

Student is sometimes or often late/absent or unprepared

Student is late/absent/ unprepared most weeks.

____

Level of Engagement in

Class (and, if appropriate, on

LEARN)

Student regularly contributes; listens to and constructively engages w/ others, including in group work

Student contributes/ engages sometimes; usually listens to and engages well with others

Student rarely engages/ contributes

Student never contributes or constructively engages.

_____

Group Presentation

Presentation is informed, well prepared, clear and engaging

Presentation achieves 3 of the four qualities listed left

1 or 2 of the four qualities listed

Presentation uninformed, unprepared, confusing, lacklustre

____

Average:

Your seminar mark (10% of overall course mark ) will be comprised of an average of these different components.

GROUP PRESENTATION CRITERIA – what we’ll be assessing: 1. Evidence of preparation did group do the background reading ( academic/ news)? 2. Clear explanation of chosen topic/questions

does the group present a convincing and clear explanation of topic and/or question? 3. Presentational clarity and style (including creativity) is the information presented in a clear, accessible, interesting way? 4. Ability to work in groups (group presentations only) do the members work well together? 5. How well does the group handle the questions/comments from the other students?

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APPENDIX 2: SPS UNDERGRADUATE SCHOOL GENERAL INFORMATION

Students with Disabilities The School welcomes disabled students with disabilities (including those with specific learning difficulties such as dyslexia) and is working to make all its courses as accessible as possible. If you have a disability special needs which means that you may require adjustments to be made to ensure access to lectures, tutorials or exams, or any other aspect of your studies, you can discuss these with your Student Support Officer or Personal Tutor who will advise on the appropriate procedures. You can also contact the Student Disability Service, based on the University of Edinburgh, Third Floor, Main Library, You can find their details as well as information on all of the support they can offer at: http://www.ed.ac.uk/student-disability-service

Learning Resources for Undergraduates The Study Development Team at the Institute for Academic Development (IAD) provides resources and workshops aimed at helping all students to enhance their learning skills and develop effective study techniques. Resources and workshops cover a range of topics, such as managing your own learning, reading, note-making, essay and report writing, exam preparation and exam techniques. The study development resources are housed on ‘LearnBetter’ (undergraduate), part of Learn, the University’s virtual learning environment. Follow the link from the IAD Study Development web page to enrol: www.ed.ac.uk/iad/undergraduates Workshops are interactive: they will give you the chance to take part in activities, have discussions, exchange strategies, share ideas and ask questions. They are 90 minutes long and held on Wednesday afternoons at 1.30pm or 3.30pm. The schedule is available from the IAD Undergraduate web page (see above). Workshops are open to all undergraduates but you need to book in advance, using the MyEd booking system. Each workshop opens for booking two weeks before the date of the workshop itself. If you book and then cannot attend, please cancel in advance through MyEd so that another student can have your place. (To be fair to all students, anyone who persistently books on workshops and fails to attend may be barred from signing up for future events). Study Development Advisors are also available for an individual consultation if you have specific questions about your own approach to studying, working more effectively, strategies for improving your learning and your academic work. Please note, however, that Study Development Advisors are not subject specialists so they cannot comment on the content of your work. They also do not check or proof read students' work. To make an appointment with a Study Development Advisor, email [email protected] (For support with English Language, you should contact the English Language Teaching Centre).

External Examiner The External Examiner for the PIR programme is: Matthew Goodwin – University of Kent

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APPENDIX 3: COURSEWORK ASSIGNMENTS

ISSUE BRIEF (worth 45% of course mark)

One electronic copy of your Brief is due Tuesday, 1st November 2016, 12 noon Your Issue Brief will be focused on a single factor that might help determine the result of the 2016 US Election. Here is an indicative list of factors you might wish to explore.

Age (of voters)

Campaign spending

Candidate character

Economy (or economic perceptions)

Ethnicity

Gender

Foreign (or another type of) policy

Media (or social media)

Party identification

Religion

Swing states (or one of them)

You may write your Issue Brief on a factor/topic not included in this list. However, you must have your choice approved in advance by the course organisers by 14th October at the latest. Do not write on a topic that has not been approved by the course organisers. You must include in your Issue Brief an historical/comparative dimension: that is, to what extent is this factor likely to play a different/similar role than it did in previous US elections? LENGTH: The issue brief should be between 3000 and 3500 words, with a maximum length of 3500 words, including end/footnotes but excluding the bibliography. Please provide a word count on your cover sheet, and note that Reports longer than 3500 words will be penalised. Note 3500 is a maximum length; there is no ‘grace margin’. DEADLINE: Your Issue Brief is due Tuesday, 1st November, to be submitted electronically. Note a late penalty (5 marks per day) takes effect immediately after 12 noon; penalties for late submission are applied per calendar day

ISSUE BRIEF ASSESSMENT CRITERIA The following criteria will be used to evaluate the Issue Brief. However, it is important to note that the overall mark is a result of a holistic assessment of the assignment as a whole. a. Does the Brief address the task set, and with sufficient focus? b. Does it show a grasp of the relevant concepts and knowledge? c. Does it demonstrate a logical and effective pattern of argument? d. Does it support its arguments with relevant, accurate and effective forms of evidence? e. Does it demonstrate reflexivity and critical thinking in relation to arguments and evidence? f. Is the Brief adequately presented in terms of: correct referencing and quoting; spelling, grammar and

style; layout and visual presentation?

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FINAL ESSAY (worth 45% of course mark)

One electronic copy of your essay is due 5 Dec 2016, 12 noon This essay assignment will allow you to apply a scholarly framework, theory or model to one of the phenomenon we’ll be studying in this course. You will be assessed on how well you grasp the empirical and conceptual dimension of the essay question. Answer 1 of the questions below 1. Apply EITHER Popkin’s ‘Reasoning Voter’ OR Fiorina’s ‘Retrospective Voter’ model to the 2016 election. How incisive an account does your chosen model offer of campaign strategies and outcomes?

Popkin, S (1991) The Reasoning Voter : Communication and Persuasion in Presidential Campaigns JK 525 Pop (also excerpted in Kernell and Smith, JK21. Pri);

Fiorina, M. (1981) Retrospective Voting in American National Elections (HUB, JK1967 Fio) or Fiorina , M. (1978) ‘Economic Retrospective Voting in American National Elections: A Micro-

Analysis. ‘ American Journal of Political Science, vol. 22 (2):426-44.

2. Are you convinced by the forecasting models of Abramowitz, Erickson, Sides or others? Assess their usefulness in helping us understand the 2016 presidential election campaign and outcome. (You may choose one particular forecasting model or assess several of them.)

Abramowitz, A. 2008. “It's about time: Forecasting the 2008 presidential election with the time-for-change model’ International Journal of Forecasting, vol.24(2), pp.209-217

Campbell, J., et al (2013) ‘Recap: Forecasting the 2012 Election’ PS: Political Science & Politics, vol 46 (1), pp.37-38

Erikson, R and Wlezien, C. (2014) ‘Forecasting US Presidential Elections Using Economic and Noneconomic Fundamentals’ PS, Political Science & Politics, Vol.47(2), pp.313-316

PS: Political Science and Politics (2012) 45(4) Symposium: Forecasting The 2012 American National Elections (Special Issue, October 2012)

Sides, J. and Vavreck, L. (2012) The Gamble. Choice and Chance in the 2012 Presidential Election.(book on order, but chapter 1 available here: http://press.princeton.edu/chapters/s10350.pdf

3. Choose at least one academic explanation for party polarization and assess how well it explains the result of the 2016 election. Choose from the explanations or models offered by the authors listed below:

Abramowitz 2010

Fiorina and Abrams 2008 (or Fiorina 2002)

Nivola, et al. 2006 4. Is Joe McGinniss’ analysis of campaign strategies still relevant today? Test his arguments by applying his framework to the 2016 presidential election.

McGinnis, 1970 Selling of the President (any edition HUB Reserve (E851 Macg. ) (also excerpted in Shafritz and Weinberg 2000)

LENGTH: The Essay should be between 3000 and 3500 words, with a maximum length of 3500 words, including end/footnotes but excluding the bibliography. Please provide a word count on your cover sheet, and note an essay longer than 3500 words will be penalised. Note 3500 is a maximum length; there is no ‘grace margin’. DEADLINE: Your Essay is due Monday, 5 December, 12 noon, to be submitted electronically. Note a late penalty takes effect immediately after 12 noon; penalties for late submission are applied per calendar day.

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ESSAY ASSESSMENT CRITERIA The following criteria will be used to evaluate your essay. However, it is important to note that the overall mark is a result of a holistic assessment of the assignment as a whole. a. Does the essay address the question set, and with sufficient focus? b. Does it show a grasp of the relevant concepts and knowledge? c. Does it demonstrate a logical and effective pattern of argument? d. Does it support its arguments with relevant, accurate and effective forms of evidence? e. Does it demonstrate reflexivity and critical thinking in relation to arguments and evidence? f. Is the essay adequately presented in terms of: correct referencing and quoting; spelling, grammar and

style; layout and visual presentation? Please see the Politics and IR Honours Handbook for further information on submission of coursework; extensions; plagiarism; learning disabilities, special circumstances; common marking descriptors, and more.

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APPENDIX 4: COURSE WORK SUBMISSION AND PENALTIES

Penalties that can be applied to your work and how to avoid them. There are three types of penalties that can be applied to your course work and these are listed below. Students must read the full description on each of these at: http://www.sps.ed.ac.uk/undergrad/current_students/teaching_and_learning/assessment_and_regulations/coursework_penalties Make sure you are aware of each of these penalties and know how to avoid them. Students are responsible for taking the time to read guidance and for ensuring their coursework submissions comply with guidance.

Incorrect submission Penalty When a piece of coursework is submitted to our Electronic Submission System (ELMA) that does not comply with our submission guidance (wrong format, incorrect document, no cover sheet etc.) a penalty of 5 marks will be applied to students work.

Lateness Penalty If you miss the submission deadline for any piece of assessed work 5 marks will be deducted for each calendar day that work is late, up to a maximum of seven calendar days (35 marks). Thereafter, a mark of zero will be recorded. There is no grace period for lateness and penalties begin to apply immediately following the deadline.

Word Count Penalty The penalty for excessive word length in coursework is one mark deducted for each additional 20 words over the limit. Word limits vary across subject areas and submissions, so check your course handbook. Make sure you know what is and what is not included in the word count. Again, check the course handbook for this information. You will not be penalised for submitting work below the word limit. However, you should note that shorter essays are unlikely to achieve the required depth and that this will be reflected in your mark.

ELMA: Submission and Return of Coursework Coursework is submitted online using our electronic submission system, ELMA. You will not be required to submit a paper copy of your work. Marked coursework, grades and feedback will be returned to you via ELMA. You will not receive a paper copy of your marked course work or feedback. For details of how to submit your course work to ELMA, please see our webpages here. Remember, there is a 5 mark incorrect submission penalty, so read the guidance carefully and follow it to avoid receiving this.

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Extensions: New policy-applicable for years 1 -4 From September 2016, there will be a new extensions policy that applies to all courses in the school from years one to four.

If you have good reason for not meeting a coursework deadline, you may request an extension. Before you request an extension, make sure you have read all the guidance on our webpages and take note of the key points below. You will also be able to access the online extension request form through our webpages.

Extensions are granted for 7 calendar days.

Extension requests must be submitted no later than 24 hours before the coursework deadline.

If you miss the deadline for requesting an extension for a valid reason, you should submit your coursework as soon as you are able, and apply for Special Circumstances to disregard penalties for late submission. You should also contact your Student Support Officer or Personal Tutor and make them aware of your situation.

If you have a valid reason and require an extension of more than 7 calendar days, you should submit your coursework as soon as you are able, and apply for Special Circumstances to disregard penalties for late submission. You should also contact your Student Support Officer or Personal Tutor and make them aware of your situation.

If you have a Learning Profile from the Disability Service allowing you potential for flexibility over deadlines, you must still make an extension request for this to be taken into account.

Exam Feedback and Viewing Exam Scripts: General exam feedback will be provided for all courses with an examination. General feedback will be uploaded to the relevant course learn page within 24 hours of the overall marks for the course being returned to Students. Students who sit the exam will also receive individual feedback. The relevant Course Secretary will contact students to let them know when this is available and how to access it. If students wish to view their scripts for any reason, they must contact the relevant Course Secretary via email to arrange this.

Plagiarism Guidance for Students: Avoiding Plagiarism Material you submit for assessment, such as your essays, must be your own work. You can, and should, draw upon published work, ideas from lectures and class discussions, and (if appropriate) even upon discussions with other students, but you must always make clear that you are doing so. Passing off anyone else’s work (including another student’s work or material from the Web or a published author) as your own is plagiarism and will be punished severely.

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When you upload your work to ELMA you will be asked to check a box to confirm the work is your own. All submissions will be run through ‘Turnitin’, our plagiarism detection software. Turnitin compares every essay against a constantly-updated database, which highlights all plagiarised work. Assessed work that contains plagiarised material will be awarded a mark of zero, and serious cases of plagiarism will also be reported to the College Academic Misconduct officer. In either case, the actions taken will be noted permanently on the student's record. For further details on plagiarism see the Academic Services’ website: http://www.ed.ac.uk/academic-services/staff/discipline/plagiarism.

Data Protection Guidance for Students In most circumstances, students are responsible for ensuring that their work with information about living, identifiable individuals complies with the requirements of the Data Protection Act. The document, Personal Data Processed by Students, provides an explanation of why this is the case. It can be found, with advice on data protection compliance and ethical best practice in the handling of information about living, identifiable individuals, on the Records Management section of the University website at: http://www.ed.ac.uk/schools-departments/records-management-section/data-

protection/guidance-policies/dpforstudents

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APPENDIX 5: SELECTED WEBSITES

Here is a far from exhaustive list of websites relevant to voting and elections. We’ve checked them recently but note that website addresses can change rapidly. VOTING AND ELECTIONS

538 (Nate Silver’s ‘election calculus’ forecast blog) http://fivethirtyeight.com/.

American Presidency Project (University of California, Santa Barbara) http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/platforms.php

Campaign and Election (monthly magazine covering campaign trends) http://www.campaignsandelections.com.

Cook Political Report – a well-respected pundit shares his analysis: http://www.cookpolitical.com/

Larry J Sabato’s Crystal Ball http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball

Monkeycage – well informed blog for election junkies: themonkeycage.org/

Open Secrets: features data on campaign spending: http://www.opensecrets.org/

Project Vote Smart : http://www.vote-smart.org (for tracking legislation)

Real Clear Politics – reliable scoops on elections - http://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/2016/#432

University of Michigan, electoral maps of past elections http://www-personal.umich.edu/~mejn/election/

MEDIA, NEWS AND POLLS

CNN Interaction http://edition.cnn.com/election

Fox News – key organ of the right: http://www.foxnews.com/politics.html

Gallup Organization: http://www.gallup.com/

NY Times’ election coverage: http://www.nytimes.com/pages/politics/index.html

(offers free daily email news bulletin)

Pew Research Center for People and the Press (http://people-press.org/) (very useful analyses of current trends)

Politico – both snappy and in-depth coverage of election news: http://www.politico.com/news/2016-elections.

www.politifact.com – fact checker

Polling Report: http://www.pollingreport.com/wh16.htm (clearinghouse of major polls)

Wall Street Journal: http://www.wsj.com/news/politics

Washington Post https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/?nid=menu_nav_politics (include free daily email news bulletin)

John and Elizabeth will also be tweeting throughout the election - @eebomberg / @redsocksJP Just For Fun…

The Onion: excellent spoof news http://www.theonion.com/election-2016/

Capitol Steps – group of former Senate staffers who satirise national politics through song: http://www.capsteps.com/

POINTS TO REMEMBER ABOUT INFORMATION FROM THE INTERNET

Citation: always give the author’s name and date of publication (if known). At the very least provide the full URL (internet address) and date accessed;

Plagiarism from internet resources attracts the same penalties as plagiarism from published material;

Much commentary on the web has not had the benefit of critical review as is required of material appearing in most journals and texts.

Remember to check Learn for regular updates and further links.

Please share with us any other sites you find particularly useful.

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APPENDIX 6: GUIDE TO REFERENCING

The fundamental purpose of proper referencing is to provide the reader with a clear idea of where you obtained your information, quote, idea, etc. NOTE: You will lose points for sloppy or inadequate referencing. We recommend the Harvard-style (or ‘in text’) system which is simple to use. Here’s how it works: 1. After you have quoted from or referred to a particular text in your essay, add in parentheses the author's name, the year

of publication and page numbers (if relevant). Place the full reference in your bibliography. Here is an example of a quoted passage and its proper citation:

Quotation in essay: ‘Quite simply, political theory and political practice are inseparably linked.’ (Heywood 1998: 3). Book entry in bibliography: Heywood, A. (1998) Political Ideologies: An Introduction. 2nd ed. Basingstoke: Macmillan Note the sequence: author, year of publication, title, edition if needed, place of publication, publisher. Note also that you should not italicise quotations.

2. If you are employing someone else’s arguments, ideas or categorisation, you will need to cite them even if you are not

using a direct quote. One simple way to do so is as follows: Gallagher (1997: 129) argues that future European Parliament elections are unlikely to generate more interest than past ones. 3. Your sources may well include journal or newspaper articles, book chapters, and internet sites. Below we show you how

to cite these various sources: Chapters in book:

In your essay, cite the author as above, i.e. (Gallagher 1997).

In your bibliography details should be arranged in this sequence: author of chapter, year of publication, chapter title, title of book, editor(s) of book, place of publication, publisher, article or chapter pages.

For example:

Gallagher, M. (1997) ‘Electoral Systems and Voting Behaviour’ in Developments in West European Politics, M. Rhodes, P. Heywood and V. Wright (eds), Basingstoke: Palgrave, pp 114-130.

Journal Article:

In your essay, cite as above (Doherty 2007)

In your bibliography, details should be arranged in this sequence: author of journal article, year of publication, article title, journal title, journal volume, journal issue, article pages

example:

Doherty, B. (2007) ‘Friends of the Earth International: Negotiating a Transnational Identity’ Environmental Politics vol 15(5), pp. 860-80

Newspaper or magazine article:

If the article has an author, cite as normal in text (Ascherson 1992).

In bibliography cite as follows:

Ascherson, N (1992) ‘The New Europe’ The Independent on Sunday Magazine 9 February, pp 31-4.

If the article has no author, cite name of newspaper in text (Economist, 2007) and list the source in bibliography by magazine or newspaper title.

For example:

Economist (2007) ‘America in the Middle East: arming its friends and talking peace’ 4 Aug 2007, p 38. Internet sites:

If the site has an author cite in text as normal: i.e. (Álvarez-Rivera, 2007)

In the bibliography, provide a full reference which should include author, date, title of website and URL address:

For example:

Álvarez-Rivera, M (2007) ‘Election Resources on the Internet’ Available at: http://ElectionResources.org/

If the website has no author, cite the short address of the site in your text (http://europa.eu)

In the bibliography, provide a full reference including title of website, URL address, publisher or owner of site

For example: ‘The European Union’s Institutions’ (http://europa.eu/index_en.htm) The European Union’s official portal site. (If no date is available, indicate date you accessed the site)

4. If you prefer to use footnote citations, please follow the format used in reputable journals such as West European Politics. These journals include (usually on the back cover) a brief guide to referencing. If you have any questions about referencing you can check with your tutor.