Consumption-based approaches in climate policy FORES October 21, 2014 Glen Peters Center for International Climate and Environmental Research – Oslo (CICERO) Email: [email protected] Twitter: @Peters_Glen
Welcome message from author
This document is posted to help you gain knowledge. Please leave a comment to let me know what you think about it! Share it to your friends and learn new things together.
Transcript
Consumption-based approaches in climate policy
FORESOctober 21, 2014
Glen PetersCenter for International Climate and Environmental Research – Oslo (CICERO)
Email: [email protected] Twitter: @Peters_Glen
FORES21/10/2014
THE MITIGATION CHALLENGE
Observed Emissions and Emissions Scenarios
Over 1000 scenarios from the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report are shownSource: Fuss et al 2014; CDIAC; Global Carbon Budget 2014
Data: CDIAC/GCP/IPCC/Fuss et al 2014
FORES21/10/2014
A “typical” 2°C scenario?• Rationale behaviour by all decision
makers, consumers and producers
• Immediate implementation of a global carbon price in all countries (from 2010)
• Full availability of all technologies
FORES21/10/2014
The Reality...• Sunk costs by decision makers,
consumers, and producers
• Fragmented carbon pricing/policies
• Lack of availability of technologies
FORES21/10/2014
The Reality...• Sunk costs by decision makers,
consumers, and producers
• Fragmented carbon pricing/policies• Can consumption-based accounting help?
• Lack of availability of technologies
FORES21/10/2014
FRAGMENTED POLICIES
FORES21/10/2014
Fragmented policy
• “Common but differentiated” leads to fragmented policies
• Strong, weak, none
• Relevant in a global economy• Carbon leakage• Competiveness concerns
Top Fossil Fuel Emitters (Absolute)The top four emitters in 2013 covered 58% of global emissions
China (28%), United States (14%), EU28 (10%), India (7%)
Bunkers fuel used for international transport is 3% of global emissionsStatistical differences between the global estimates and sum of national totals is 3% of global emissions
Source: CDIAC; Le Quéré et al 2014; Global Carbon Budget 2014
Consumption-based emissions (carbon footprint)
Allocating emissions to the consumption of goods and services provides an alternative perspective on emission drivers
Consumption-based emissions are calculated by adjusting the standard production-based emissions to account for international trade
Source: Le Quéré et al 2014; Peters et al 2011;Global Carbon Project 2014
FORES21/10/2014
CONSUMPTION-BASED EMISSIONS
FORES21/10/2014
Swedish emissions
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015-50
0
50
100E
mis
sion
s (M
tCO 2)
Consumption =Production– Exports+ Imports
“Net transfer” =Exports – Imports
FORES21/10/2014
Swedish emissions
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015-50
0
50
100E
mis
sion
s (M
tCO 2)
Consumption: New policy lever?
Imports: “Carbon Leakage”
Production: Sovereign control
Exports: “Competitiveness
concerns”
FORES21/10/2014
101
102
103
104
101
102
103
104
=0.35
Food
101
102
103
104
101
102
103
104
=0.77
Clothing
101
102
103
104
101
102
103
104
=0.79
Manufacturing and Industry
101
102
103
104
101
102
103
104
=0.85
Mobility services
101
102
103
104
101
102
103
104
=0.23
Housing
101
102
103
104
101
102
103
104
=0.85
Infrastucture
101
102
103
104
101
102
103
104
=0.88
Electricity, gas, water
101
102
103
104
101
102
103
104
=0.61
Services and retailing
East AsiaSouth-East Asia and OceaniaSouth AsiaNorth AmericaSouth AmericaEuropeRussian Federation and former SovietMiddle East and North AfricaAfrica
Consumption (USD/capita)
Em
issi
ons
(CO
2-eq/
capi
ta)
Consumption as a “driver”
FORES21/10/2014
CONSUMPTION AS A POLICY LEVER
FORES21/10/2014
Example consumption policies• Country level consumption cap, border
carbon adjustment
• Labelling (e.g., amount of CO2)
• Information (less meat, less flights, ...)
• Regulations (e.g., ban products)
FORES21/10/2014
Assessing policies• Top-down: Border Carbon Adjustment
• Remove exports• Add imports
• Bottom-up: Behavioural economics• Surveys• Focus groups• Laboratory experiments• ...
FORES21/10/2014
Effectiveness vs Fairness• Consumption-based policies in a fragmented
regime are:• More cost effective• More environmentally effective• But unfair
• Unfair: • Developing countries have to reduce emissions • Can be offset with financial transfers
FORES21/10/2014
Implementation issues• Uncertainty (country and sector level)
• Legal (WTO)
• Institutional (UNFCCC reporting)
• Feasibility (winners vs losers)
FORES21/10/2014
Uncertainty
FORES21/10/2014
POLICY IMPLICATIONS
FORES21/10/2014
“Complementary” Policies• Key lever: Territorial-based emissions
• Complementary policy levers• (in a fragmented policy regime)• Consumption accounting to track leakage• Consumption analysis to identify drivers• Consumption policies to respond
• Not only consumption...
FORES21/10/2014
ExtractionExtractors collect tax revenue
In principle easy
Production/TerritorialEasy and status quo
Fragmentation, free riders, carbon leakage
ConsumptionPuts focus on key driversComplex (and uncertain)
Alternate carbon policies
FORES21/10/2014
Thank you
folk.uio.no/glen
Twitter: @Peters_Glen
Top Fossil Fuel Emitters (Per Capita)
China’s per capita emissions have passed the EU28 and are 45% above the global average
Source: CDIAC; Le Quéré et al 2014; Global Carbon Budget 2014
Per capita emissions in 2013
Consumption Emissions per the Kyoto Protocol
The net emissions transfers into Annex B countries more than offsets the Annex B emission reductions achieved within the Kyoto Protocol
In Annex B, production-based emissions have had a slight decrease while consumption-based emissions have grown at 0.5% per year, and emission transfers have grown at 11% per year
Source: CDIAC; Peters et al 2011; Le Quéré et al 2014; Global Carbon Budget 2014
Related Documents
