CONSUMER CONFIDENCE CONCERNS AND SPENDING INTENTIONS AROUND THE WORLD QUARTER 3, 2014 2014 CONSUMER CONFIDENCE SERIES | 3 RD EDITION
C O N S U M E R C O N F I D E N C ECONCERNS AND SPENDING INTENTIONS AROUND THE WORLDQUARTER 3, 2014
2014 CONSUMER CONFIDENCE SERIES | 3RD EDITION
2 QUARTER 3 2014 - GLOBAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE REPORT2
• Globalconsumerconfidencemakesslow,steadyprogress,advancingoneindexpointforthesecondconsecutivequarterto98—twopointsawayfromtheoptimismbaselineof100
• NorthAmericaconsumerconfidencerisesfourindexpointsto107,matchingAsia-Pacific’sscore
• Optimismaboutjobprospectsisimprovingmorequicklythanpersonalfinances
• MostNorthAmericansarepositiveaboutimmediatespendingintentions—theonlyregiontoreachamajoritypercentageof51%
• Globaldiscretionaryspendingintentionsremainstableformostcategories
• Concernsabouttheeconomyandjobsecuritydeclinearoundtheworld,butotherworriesincrease
GLOBAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE REFLECTS AN OUTLOOK OF CAUTIOUS OPTIMISM
Globalconsumerconfidenceedgeduponeindexpointinthethird
quartertoascoreof98—anincreaseofonepointfromtheprevious
quarterandtwopointsfromthestartoftheyear.Theindex,whichhas
beenonaslowandsteadyrisefortwoandahalfyears(sinceQ12012),
hasnowexceededapre-recessionlevelof94forthreeconsecutive
quarters.Thelatestresultsreflectanoutlookofcautiousoptimism,as
everyregion’sconsumerconfidencescoreimprovedfromtheprevious
quarter.
3Copyright © 2014 The Nielsen Company 3
ABOUT THE GLOBAL SURVEY METHODOLOGY
Thefindingsinthissurveyare
basedonrespondentswith
onlineaccessin60countries
(unlessotherwisenoted).While
anonlinesurveymethodology
allowsfortremendousscale
andglobalreach,itprovidesa
perspectiveonlyonthehabits
ofexistingInternetusers,not
totalpopulations.Indeveloping
marketswhereonlinepenetration
isstillgrowing,audiencesmay
beyoungerandmoreaffluent
thanthegeneralpopulationof
thatcountry.Inaddition,survey
responsesarebasedonclaimed
behaviorratherthanactual
metereddata.
ConsumerconfidenceintheNorthAmericaregionimprovedmost,
risingfourpointsto107—ascorethatmatchesAsia-Pacific’sscorefor
thefirsttimeinNielsen’sConsumerConfidencehistory(since2005);
Asia-Pacific’sscoreincreasedonepoint.Confidencealsoincreasedthree
pointsintheMiddleEast/Africa(96),onepointinLatinAmerica(91)
andonepointinEurope(78),fromthepreviousquarter.
TheNielsenconsumerconfidenceindexmeasuresperceptionsoflocal
jobprospects,personalfinancesandimmediatespendingintentions.
Consumerconfidencelevelsaboveandbelowabaselineof100indicate
degreesofoptimismandpessimism,respectively.TheNielsenGlobal
SurveyofConsumerConfidenceandSpendingIntentions,established
in2005,measuresconsumerconfidence,majorconcernsandspending
intentionsamongmorethan30,000respondentswithInternetaccessin
60countries.
“OutsideofNorthAmerica,arangeofregion-andcountry-specific
factorsaretranslatingintoweakerandmoreunevenimprovements
inconsumerconfidence,”saidDr.LouiseKeely,seniorvicepresident,
Nielsen.“Europeisbeingdirectlyaffectedbythegeopoliticalcrisis
inUkraine,andisalsoatacriticalpolicyjunctureconcerningsteps
topreventdeflationandimprovegrowth.Amongmajoremerging
economies,whileIndiaisdisplayingrenewedpotentialforaccelerating
growthfromitsnewgovernment,Chinaismovinginadifferent
directionasitre-orientsitseconomytowardgreaterdomestic
consumption.”
Amongtheworld’sbiggesteconomies,consumerconfidenceincreased
fourpointsintheU.S.(108),onepointinGermany(97),threepoints
intheU.K.(93)andfourpointsinJapan(77),fromthesecondquarter.
Meanwhile,consumerconfidenceinChinaheldsteadyat111forthe
fourthconsecutivequarter.
Inthelatestonlinesurvey,conductedAug.13–Sept.5,2014,consumer
confidenceincreasedin39of60marketsmeasuredbyNielsen(65%),
comparedwith31markets(52%)inthesecondquarter.India’sscoreof
126,thehighestindexamong60markets,nevertheless,representeda
declineoftwopointsfromthesecondquarter.Italyreportedthelowest
scoreof47,aquarterlydeclineoffourpoints.Australia(97)showedthe
biggestimprovement,asconfidencereturnedtoyear-agoperformance.
Chile(85)loggedthebiggestdecline,asconfidencetherefellseven
pointsfromthepreviousquarter.
4 QUARTER 3 2014 - GLOBAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE REPORT
GLOBAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE
60 COUNTRIES – 3-MONTH TRENDQ3-2014 NIELSEN CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX
*SurveyisbasedonrespondentswithInternetaccess.Chinasurveyresultsreflectamixedmethodology.Indexlevelsaboveandbelow100indicatedegreesofoptimism/pessimism.
Source:NielsenGlobalSurveyofConsumerConfidence&SpendingIntentions,Q32014
+2-5
+8+3
0
+4
+4
+3
-2
+4
+5
+1
+3
+4
+1
+1
+6
+3
+1
-1
+12
0+3
+3+6
+4+3+2+6+6+1-1-7
+3+1
+4+1
+4
0
+4
+7
+2
0
0
-2
0
+3
-3
-1
+9
-4
+1
0+5
-1
+4
87 N
ETHERLAN
DS
87 RUSSIA
88 M
EXICO 89
AUSTRIA 90 SW
EDEN 92 ISRAEL
SOUTH KOREA 52
93 UNITED KINGDOM
PORTUGAL 53
95 NORWAY
HUNGARY 56
GREECE 56
97 AUSTRALIA
UKRAINE 57
97 PERU
SLOVENIA
58
97 GERMANY
FRANCE 59
98 COLOMBIA
FINLAND 64
99 MALAYSIA
SPAIN 65
100 SWITZERLAND
ARGENTINA 68
101 BRAZIL
VENEZUELA 70 102 VIETNAMSLOVAKIA 72 102 NEW ZEALAND
ROMANIA 73
103 CANADA
POLAND 73
103 SINGAPORE
BULGARIA 76
103 PAKISTAN
JAPAN 77
104 DENMARK
LATVIA 78
105 SAUDI ARABIA
TAIWAN 7
9
107 HONG KONG
ESTONIA 80
108 UNITED STATES
CZECH REPUBLIC 8
0
111 C
HINA
BELGIU
M
81
112
UNITE
D ARAB EMIR
ATES
IREL
AND
84
113
THAILA
ND
EGYP
T
85
115
PHIL
IPPI
NES
CHIL
E
85
125
IN
DON
ESIA
LITH
UAN
IA
86
SOU
TH A
FRIC
A
8
6TU
RKEY
8
7
0
SERBIA 51
-2
126
IN
DIA
IND
EX
COU
NTR
Y
LESS
CONFIDENT
MORE CONFIDENT
-1
CROATIA
49
-4
ITALY47
NORTH AMERICA LATIN AMERICA EUROPE AFRICA, MIDDLE EAST ASIA-PACIFIC
98 ( +1 change from Q2-2014 )
GLOBAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE SURVEY – 60 Countries – 3-Month TrendQ3-2014 Nielsen Consumer Confidence Index
Index levels above and below 100 indicate degrees of optimism/pessimism.
INDEXES ABOVE 100 INDICATE OPTIMISM
GLOBALAVERAGE
5Copyright © 2014 The Nielsen Company
60 COUNTRIES – 3-MONTH TRENDQ3-2014 NIELSEN CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX
5
JOB PROSPECTS IMPROVE FASTER THAN PERSONAL FINANCES Justoverhalfofglobalrespondents(52%)believedthejobmarketwouldbegoodorexcellentinthenext12months,a2percentage-pointincreasefromthesecondquarter.Thismodestincreasefollowssteadybutsmallupticksreportedduringthepastfiveyearssince2009whenemploymentsentimentdroppedtoanaverageannuallowof31%duringthatyear.
Whileperceptionsofpersonalfinanceshavebecomemorepositivesince2009,consumers’overallsentimentaboutpersonalfinanceshasnotimprovedassignificantlyastheirsentimentabouttheiremploymentopportunities.Fifty-sevenpercentofglobalrespondentsratedtheirpersonalfinancesasgoodorexcellentfortheupcomingyear,comparedtotheaverageannuallowreportedin2009of46%—an11percentage-pointincrease.Bycontrast,thesentimentforjobprospectsincreased21percentagepointsoverthesametimeperiod.
“Alonger-termtrendhasbeenthedivergencebetweentheeconomicfortunesofthemiddleclassindevelopedmarketsandthoseinemergingmarkets,”saidDr.Keely.“IntheU.S.andWesternEurope,themiddlehasbeenstructurallyweakenedwhilethelow-wagesectorhasgrown.Thereisalsoagrowingdividebetweenyoungerandolderpeople,especiallywithinEurope,withtheformerexperiencinghighratesofunemploymentandunderemployment.Bycontrast,themiddleclassgrewstronglyinemergingmarketsduringthepreviousdecade,andwhilerecentlythattrendhasslowed,itcanstillbeexpectedtocontinue.Goingforward,thesedisparitieswithinandacrosscountriescanbeexpectedtohavealargeimpactontheoveralllevelandpatternsindiscretionaryspending.”
NorthAmericanrespondentsshowedthemostdramaticincreaseinjobprospectexpectations,asperceptionsaboutemploymentopportunitiesroseto55%inthethirdquarter—a9percentage-pointimprovementin12months(from46%inQ32013).Positiveperceptionsforlocaljobprospectsincreasedinseveralotherregionsinthepast12monthsaswell:7percentagepointsinAsia-Pacificto66%,6percentagepointsintheMiddleEast/Africato46%and5percentagepointsinEuropeto31%.Conversely,LatinAmericawastheonlyregionwithadeclineinjobsentiment,dropping8percentagepointssincethirdquarter2013to34%.
6 QUARTER 3 2014 - GLOBAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE REPORT
JOB SENTIMENT IS IMPROVING FASTER THAN PERSONAL FINANCES
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
2009
-Q1
2009
-Q2
2009
-Q3
2009
-Q4
2010
-Q1
2010
-Q2
2010
-Q3
2010
-Q4
2011
-Q1
2011
-Q2
2011
-Q3
2011
-Q4
2012
-Q1
2012
-Q2
2012
-Q3
2012
-Q4
2013
-Q1
2013
-Q2
2013
-Q3
2013
-Q4
2014
-Q1
2014
-Q2
2014
-Q3
JOB PROSPECTS PERSONAL FINANCES
52%
Q3 2014+21 Points
Q3 2014+11 Points
46% 2009
31% 2009
57%
Source:NielsenGlobalSurveyofConsumerConfidence&SpendingIntentions,Q32014
NorthAmericansweremostconfidentinthestateoftheirpersonal
finances,asexpressedinariseof2percentagepointsfromtheprevious
quarterto65%,followedbyAsia-Pacific(63%),LatinAmerica(61%)and
theMiddleEast/Africa.Europeanswereleastconfidentintheirpersonal
financesat38%,adeclineof1percentagepointfromthepreviousquarter.
7Copyright © 2014 The Nielsen Company
DISCRETIONARY SPENDING INTENTIONS REMAIN STABLE FOR MOSTConsideringthatmorethanhalfofglobalrespondents(54%)believed
theircountrywasinrecessioninthethirdquarter,it’sunderstandable
thatmanystillmaintaincautious-about-spendingattitudes.
ArecessionarysentimentwasstrongestinmanyEuropeancountries.
Morethanthreequartersofrespondentsin12of32Europeancountries
felttheircountrywasinrecession,withthehighestpercentagesinItaly
(96%),Croatia(96%)andSerbia(92%).Butthosefeelingswerealso
pervasiveinotherregions,too.Morethanthree-quartersofrespondents
inVenezuela(91%),Argentina(87%),SouthKorea(87%),Egypt(85%)
andPakistan(77%)alsobelievedtheircountrywasinrecessioninthe
thirdquarter.
8 QUARTER 3 2014 - GLOBAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE REPORT
Spendingperceptionsforthenext12monthsimprovedmarginallyin
thethirdquarterinallregionsexceptAsia-Pacific,whichwasflatwith
thesecondquarter.Spendingperceptionsincreased2percentagepoints
inNorthAmerica—theonlyregiontoreachamajoritypercentageof
51%,thehighestlevelfortheregioninNielsen’sConsumerConfidence
history(since2005).Perceptionstospendwasconsiderablylowerin
Asia-Pacific(43%),theMiddleEast/Africa(38%),LatinAmerica(37%)
andinEurope(31%).
Assuch,globaldiscretionaryspending/savingintentionsinthethird
quarterwereflatacrossmostcategories,withmarginal1percentage-
pointgainsforsavingsparecash(49%),forsavingforretirement(12%)
andforspendingonholidays/vacations(36%).Aboutone-thirdplanto
spendonnewclothes(34%)andout-of-homeentertainment(31%)—
bothrepresentnochangefromthepreviousquarter.One-fourthintends
tospendonnewtechnology(adeclineof2percentagepoints)andpay
offdebts/creditcards/loans(flatfromQ2).Aboutone-fifthexpectto
spendonhomeimprovements(22%)andinvestinstock/mutualfunds
(20%),adeclineof1percentagepointeachfromthesecondquarter.
Morethansixoutof10Asia-Pacificrespondents(62%)madesaving
apriorityinthethirdquarter—20percentagepointshigherthanthe
percentageofNorthAmericans(42%)anddoubleoralmostdoublethe
percentagesinLatinAmerica(31%),Europe(36%)andtheMiddleEast/
Africa(39%).ThedesiretopayoffdebtswashighestinNorthAmerica
(35%)andLatinAmerica(32%).Savingforretirementwashighestin
NorthAmerica(19%).Spendingonhomeimprovementswashighestin
Europe(23%)andNorthAmerica(23%).MiddleEast/Africashowedthe
highestpercentageofthosewithoutsparecash(22%).
GLOBAL AVERAGE
9Copyright © 2014 The Nielsen Company
SPARE CASH SPENDING INTENTIONS REMAIN STABLE FROM Q2
Q2 2014 Q3 2014
48
35
34
31
27
25
23
21
11
13
49
36
34
31
25
25
22
20
12
13
PUTTING INTO SAVINGS
HOLIDAYS / VACATIONS
NEW CLOTHES
OUT OF HOMEENTERTAINMENT
NEW TECHNOLOGYPRODUCTS
PAYING OFF DEBTS /CREDIT CARDS / LOANS
HOME IMPROVEMENTS / DECORATING
INVESTING IN SHARES OFSTOCK / MUTUAL FUNDS
RETIREMENT FUND
I HAVE NO SPARE CASH
GLOBAL AVERAGE
%
Source:NielsenGlobalSurveyofConsumerConfidence&SpendingIntentions,Q32014
10 QUARTER 3 2014 - GLOBAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE REPORT
CONCERNS ABOUT THE ECONOMY AND JOB SECURITY DECLINE, AS OTHER CONCERNS INCREASE Theeconomyremainedatopconcernforrespondentsaroundtheworld,
butsentimentisweakeningasworriesaboutotherconcernsincrease.
InNorthAmerica,27%ofrespondentssaidtheeconomywastheir
biggestorsecond-biggestconcernforthenextsixmonths—downfrom
34%inthepreviousquarter.Jobsecurityworriesincreasedslightly
1percentagepointto16%fromthesecondquarter.Otherconcerns
thatwanedinthethirdquarterinclude:debt(16%),foodprices(15%)
andfuelprices(9%),down5,6and6percentagepoints,respectively.
Conversely,fearsaboutterrorismspiked8percentagepointsto14%,
concernsaboutwarrose5percentagepointsto9%andworriesabout
work/lifebalanceincreased3percentagepointsto12%.
InAsia-Pacific,concernsabouthealthreplacedtheeconomyasthe
biggestorsecond-biggestconcern,climbing6percentagepointsto30%
inthethirdquarter.Worriesabouttheeconomydeclined3percentage
pointsto27%,andconcernsaboutjobsremainedstableat21%.Work/
lifebalanceworriesincreased2percentagepointsto27%fromtothe
secondquarter.
InEurope,21%ofrespondentssaidjobsecuritywastheirbiggestor
second-biggestconcernforthenextsixmonths,down3percentage
pointsfromthepreviousquarter.Worriesabouttheeconomyalso
waned,dropping1percentagepointto20%inthethirdquarter.Other
decliningconcernsinclude:utilitybills(19%)andhealth(17%),down
1and2percentagepoints,respectively.Conversely,worriesaboutwar
increased8percentagepointsto18%,andfearsaboutterrorismrose4
percentagepointsto9%fromthesecondquarter.
PERCENTAGE FOR SOME OF THE BIGGEST AND SECOND-BIGGEST CONCERNS AND CHANGE FROM Q2
11Copyright © 2014 The Nielsen Company
Jobsecuritywasthebiggestorsecond-biggestconcernintheLatin
AmericaandMiddleEast/Africaregionsfor25%and29%ofrespondents,
respectively,declinesof1and2percentagepointseachfromthesecond
quarter.Worriesabouttheeconomy,however,buckedthedownward
trendreportedintheotherregionsandincreased2percentagepointsin
bothLatinAmerica(to26%)andtheMiddleEast/Africa(to22%).Other
concernsinLatinAmericaincludedcrime(21%)andhealth(20%),which
eachdecreased1percentagepoint.OthermajorconcernsintheMiddle
East/Africaincludedparents’welfare(18%)andterrorism(14%),which
declined1and3percentagepoints,respectively.
CONCERNS AROUND THE WORLD
PERCENTAGE FOR SOME OF THE BIGGEST AND SECOND-BIGGEST CONCERNS AND CHANGE FROM Q2
ECONOMY
ASIA-PACIFIC
EUROPE LATIN AMERICA
MIDDLE EAST/AFRICA
NORTH AMERICA
JOB SECURITY
HEALTH
WAR
TERRORISM
WORK/LIFE BALANCE
27%
21%
30%
27%
5%
6%
20%
21%
17%
10%
18%
9%
26%
25%
20%
17%
4%
2%
22%
29%
12%
12%
5%
14%
27%
16%
16%
12%
9%
14%
=
==
=
Source:NielsenGlobalSurveyofConsumerConfidence&SpendingIntentions,Q32014
12 QUARTER 3 2014 - GLOBAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE REPORT
NORTH AMERICAN CONSUMER CONFIDENCE RISES AGAIN U.S.consumerconfidenceincreasedfourindexpointsforthesecond
consecutivequartertoreachascoreof108inthethirdquarter.The
risecontinuedanupwardtrendthatstartedinfirst-quarter2013,and
confidenceintheU.S.hasincreased15-pointssincethen.Confidence
alsoincreasedinCanada,risingonepointtoanindexlevelof103from
thepreviousquarter.
IntheU.S.,allconsumerconfidenceindicatorsincreasedinthe
thirdquarter,reachinglevelsnotreportedsince2007:Jobprospect
confidenceincreased9percentagepointsto55%,personalfinance
confidenceincreased2percentagepointsto66%andtheportion
ofrespondentswhobelievenowisagoodtimetobuyincreased2
percentagepointsto51%fromthesecondquarter.
“U.S.consumersarenowfeelingfarmoreconfidentthaninprevious
yearsoftherecoveryduetoconsistentlygoodjobmarkettrends
reflectedinsteadypayrollgrowthandfallingunemploymentoverthe
courseof2014,”saidDr.Keely.“Theyarealsobenefitingfromlower
gasolinepricesandagraduallyimprovinghousingmarket.Inthe
comingmonths,aswestarttoseemorepeoplereenteringtheworkforce
andmeaningfulwagegrowth,thisislikelytotranslateintobroad-based
gainsinconsumerspending.”
“ThepercentageofU.S.consumerswhobelievetheyareinarecession
declined3percentagepointsinthethirdquarterto65%,”saidJames
Russo,seniorvicepresident,GlobalConsumerInsights,Nielsen.“While
thedeclinerepresentsgoodnews,arecessionarymindsetstilllingers,
whichisimpactingcurrentretailsalesthatareonalong,slowrideto
improvement.”
LikewiseinCanada,theoutlookforjobsincreased6percentagepoints
to56%,andspendingintentionsincreased5percentagepointsto
51%.However,perceptionsaboutpersonalfinancestrendedslightly
downward,declining1percentagepointto61%.
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX IN NORTH AMERICA
13Copyright © 2014 The Nielsen Company
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX IN NORTH AMERICA
CANADA UNITED STATES
93 96
98
94
100
104
108
102
98 97
100 99
102 103
Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2013 Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014
Source:NielsenGlobalSurveyofConsumerConfidence&SpendingIntentions,Q32014
Intheregion,quarter-on-quarterdiscretionaryspendingintentions
increasedmarginallyforbuyingnewclothes(32%),payingoffdebts/
creditcards/loans(35%)andputtingmoneyintosavingsaccounts
(42%),retirementfunds(19%)andinvestments(15%).Discretionary
spendingintentionswereflatforholidays/vacations(31%),out-of-home
entertainment(22%)andnewtechnology(21%).
14 QUARTER 3 2014 - GLOBAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE REPORT
PROGRESS IN EUROPE REMAINS SLOW ConsumerconfidenceinEuropeincreasedin59%ofmarketsmeasured
inthethirdquarter,comparedto72%thatincreasedinthesecond
quarter.Sixof32marketsreportednochange.ConfidenceinGermany,
thebiggesteconomyintheregion,increasedoneindexpointtoascore
of97—acontinuationofsmallupticksoverthepastseveralquarterstoa
near-baselinescore,whichstandsinstarkcontrasttotheaverageindex
scoreintheregionof78.
“Comparedwithmosteurozonecountries,theGermaneconomyhas
prosperedsofar,”saidIngoSchier,managingdirector,NielsenGermany.
“Increasingincomes,stablepricesandarobustlabormarketarehelping
tokeepGermanconsumerconfidenceatahigherlevelthanthatof
othercountriesintheregion.Butthenextfewmonthswillbecritical,
asweakereconomieshavethepotentialtoaffectGermanconsumer
confidence.”
Thebiggestregionalindexincreasescomparedtothesecondquarter
camefromSlovenia(+9to58),Bulgaria(+7to76),theNetherlands
(+6to87),Turkey(+6to87)andSweden(+6to90).Othernotable
confidenceimprovementsincludedanincreaseofthreepointsinthe
U.K.toascoreof93—thethirdconsecutivequarterofrisingoptimism.
Russia’sindexalsoincreasedinthreeconsecutivequarterstoascore
of87inthethirdquarter.Conversely,confidenceinFrance(59)and
Italy(47)bothdeclined,droppingoneandfourpoints,respectively,
comparedtothesecondquarter.
“InRussia,consumersentimentisimprovingandconsumptionlevels
forfast-movingconsumergoodsremainstable,whichisapositivesign
intoday’stensepoliticalandeconomicenvironment,”saidKyriakos
Kyriakou,managingdirector,NielsenEasternEurope.“Consumersare
notswitchingtosavingstrategiesonalargescale,andpremiumbrands
areholdingtheirpositionswell.Nevertheless,thebalancebetween
spendingasusualandcost-cuttingisadelicateone,andmanufacturers
andretailersshouldbepreparedwithstrategiesthatoffergood‘value
formoney’dealstoconsumers.”
Source:NielsenGlobalSurveyofConsumerConfidence&SpendingIntentions,Q32014
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX INCREASES IN 59% OF EUROPEAN MARKETS
Denmark
Switzerland
Germany
Norway
UnitedKingdom
Israel
Sweden
Austria
Russia
Turkey
Netherlands
Lithuania
Ireland
Belgium
Estonia
CzechRepublic
Latvia
Bulgaria
Romania
Poland
Slovakia
Spain
Finland
France
Slovenia
Ukraine
Greece
Hungary
Portugal
Serbia
Croatia
Italy
104 |
100 |
97 |
95 |
93 |
92 |
90 |
89 |
87 |
87 |
87 |
86 |
84 |
81 |
80 |
80 |
78 |
76 |
73 |
73 |
72 |
65 |
64 |
59 |
58 |
57 |
56 |
56 |
53 |
51 |
49 |
47 |
-2
1
1
0
3
3
6
4
2
6
6
-1
3
1
1
4
0
7
0
2
0
3
-3
-1
9
-4
1
0
5
0
-1
-4
INDEX
INDEX POINT CHANGE FROM Q2
INCREASE
DECREASENO CHANGE
15Copyright © 2014 The Nielsen Company
“InTurkey,consumerconfidencewasbuoyedbyanexpectationthatjob
prospectswouldbebetterintheyearahead,”saidRobertoPedretti,
managingdirector,NielsenTurkey.“Sentimentforemployment
opportunities,whichhaddeclinedoverthepastyear-and-a-half,isnow
ata2012level.Thisriseinoptimism,whichcameduringatimewhen
politicalelectionswereunderway,hasreflectedpositivelyatretail,which
isgrowingatadouble-digitrateof12%.”
16 QUARTER 3 2014 - GLOBAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE REPORT
CONFIDENCE IN ASIA-PACIFIC IS ABOVE 100 IN 9 OF 14 COUNTRIES ConsumerconfidenceinAsia-Pacificincreasedin71%ofthemarkets
measured,as10of14countriespostedincreases,threedeclinedandonewas
flat,comparedtothesecondquarter.ConfidenceinIndia(126)droppedtwo
points,nevertheless,thecountrystillpostedthehighestindexintheregion
andofthe60countriesmeasured.China’sindexheldsteadyat111forthe
fourthconsecutivequarter.Nineof14countriesintheregionreportedindex
scoresabovethebaselineof100.
“InIndia,overall,theconfidenceindexcontinuestoholdnearitsprevious
levelswiththeeuphoriaaroundtherecentlyelectedgovernmentsettling
down,”saidPiyushMathur,president,NielsenIndiaRegion.“Theconsumerin
Indiaisinthemiddleofafestivalseason,andsospendingwilllikelybehigher
thanpreviousquartersduetogiftingandentertaining.Besidestraditional
offlineretailers,e-commerceisgainingtractionfortheurbanaffluentshoppers
inIndiaandonlineretailershavebeenspurringthemarketwithdiscountsto
fuelthismovement.Theactualimpactofthisonconsumerspendingmightbe
moreevidenttowardstheendoftheyear.”
“InChina,thesustainedstrongconsumerconfidenceresultcanbeattributed
torisingdisposableincomelevelsaswageincreasesandfuturejobprospects
exceedlowinflationlevelsbyawidemargin,”saidPatrickDodd,managing
director,NielsenChina.“Astheirwealthincreases,Chineseconsumers’
spendinghabitsareswitchingfrombasicdailynecessitiestoupgraded
productsandservices.Anotherkeydriveristheconvergenceofcity-tiers.
Asconsumersinlower-tiercitiesstarttospendlikeTier1consumers,itis
apositivesignforfuturegainsindomesticconsumptionlevels.Thekeyto
gainingtheirshareofwalletisthroughadeepunderstandingoftheirsubtle
andfast-changingneedsandbyadjustingmarketingandsalesstrategies
regionallyandlocallytoensurethisexcitingnewdemandismetwiththeright
supplyattherightplaceandprice.”
Australia’sindex(97)returnedtoconsumerconfidencelevelspostedin2013
withanincreaseofonepointfromthesameperiodlastyear(Q32013).
ConfidencealsoincreasedeightpointsinThailand(113);sixpointsinMalaysia
(99);fivepointsinSingapore(103);fourpointseachinHongKong(107),
Vietnam(102),Taiwan(79)andJapan(77);andtwopointsinIndonesia(125).
India
Indonesia
Philippines
Thailand
China
HongKong
Singapore
NewZealand
Vietnam
Malaysia
Australia
Taiwan
Japan
SouthKorea
126
125
115
113
111
107
103
102
102
99
97
79
77
52
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX INCREASES IN 71% OF ASIA-PACIFIC MARKETS
Source:NielsenGlobalSurveyofConsumerConfidence&SpendingIntentions,Q32014
-2
2
-5
8
0
4
5
3
4
6
12
4
4
-1
INDEX
INDEX POINT CHANGE FROM Q2
INCREASE
DECREASENO CHANGEINDEX
INCREASE
DECREASENO CHANGEINDEX
INCREASE
DECREASENO CHANGE
17Copyright © 2014 The Nielsen Company
ThePhilippines(115)wastheonlySoutheastAsiancountryinwhichconfidencedeclined,decreasingfivepoints
fromthesecondquarter.SouthKoreahadthelowestindexintheregionat52,representingaone-pointdecline
fromthesecondquarter.
“Australia’sconsumerconfidencescoreisareturntomoderatelevelsofnegativityandaresultmoreinlinewith
globalconfidencetrends,”saidChrisPercy,managingdirector,NielsenPacific.“Assentimentrises,wearealso
seeinggrowthinconsumers’willingnesstospend.Almosthalf(48%)ofAustralianssaidtheybelievethenext
12monthswillbeagoodtimetopurchasethethingstheywantandneed(up3pointsfromtheprioryear).This
riseinpurchaseintentisgreatnewsforretailersasweentertheChristmasspending-spreeseason.”
“InJapan,consumerconfidencerecoveredmoderatelyinthethirdquarterastheemploymentenvironment
improvedslightly,”saidToshihiroFukutoku,managingdirector,NielsenJapan.“Anotherpositivesignwasarise
intheNikkeiStockAverage,whichincreased9.1%betweenAprilandSeptember.Amidthecurrentenvironment
ofwageerosion,inflationandexportdecline,however,personalconsumptionmaydecrease,soweare
monitoringclosely.”
“InThailand,despitehigherconfidence,theconsumerspendingpatternremainsrestrained,”saidSuresh
Ramalingam,managingdirector,NielsenThailand.“Infact,whiletheoutlookforjobsandpersonalfinance
perceptionshasimprovedinthethirdquarter,fewerconsumersbelieveitisagoodtimetospend.Assuch,
consumersaresavingmoreandcuttingdownonout-of-homeentertainmentandnewclothesexpenses.”
18 QUARTER 3 2014 - GLOBAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE REPORT
CONFIDENCE IN LATIN AMERICA EDGES UP ONE POINTConfidenceintheLatinAmericaregionincreasedoneindexpointtoa
scoreof91inthethirdquarter,asindexscoresincreasedinthreeofthe
sevencountriesmeasured.ConfidenceinBrazilincreasedonepoint
to101—thehighestscoreintheregion.Mexico(88)andColombia
(98)increasedthreepointseachfromthesecondquarter.Conversely,
consumerconfidencedeclinedinChile(85),downsevenpoints;
Venezuela(70),downtwopoints;andPeru(97),downonepointinthe
thirdquarter.
“InBrazil,consumerconfidenceincreasedonepointinthethird
quarter,butincreasinginflationandgrowinginterestratescontinue
inthecountry,”saidLuisArjona,clusterleader,NielsenBrazil.“While
consumerconfidenceisjustabovetheoptimismbaselineof100,itis
stillbelowlastyear’sperformance,whichaveragedanindexof109.The
stillundefinedoutcomeofthepresidentialelectionslikelyaddstofuture
uncertainty,whichmayaffectconsumerconfidenceintheshortterm.”
“TheMexicaneconomy,thesecond-largestinLatinAmerica,isina
moderaterecoveryphaseafterthefirsthalfof2014,”saidGermán
Gutiérrez,clusterleaderforNielsenMexicoandCentralAmerica.“The
EconomicActivityIndicator(IGAE)reportedarealcumulativeincrease
of1.87%inthefirstsevenmonthsofthisyear,andthenumberof
workersreceivingMexicanSocialSecurity(IMSS)rose3.7%inAugust
2014,comparedwiththeprioryear.Themanufacturingsectoralso
improvedinJuly2014,rising5.95%annually.Thesepositivetrendsbode
wellformoderateincreasesinMexicanhouseholdconsumptionforfast-
movingconsumergoodsduringthelastquarterof2014.”
Discretionaryspendingintentionsintheregionshowedmarginal
quarterlyincreasesof3percentagepointsforout-of-homeentertainment
(32%)andnewclothes(29%);and2percentagepointsforholidays/
vacations(22%),newtechnologyproducts(20%)andhome
improvements(20%).Payingoffdebts/creditcards/loanswasthe
priorityamongone-thirdofrespondents(32%),aquarterlydeclineof2
percentagepoints.
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX IN LATIN AMERICA
Source:NielsenGlobalSurveyofConsumerConfidence&SpendingIntentions,Q32014
BRAZIL
ARGENTINA
VENEZUELA
101
70
68
1
-2
0
PERU
97-1
CHILE
85-7
COLOMBIA
983
MEXICO
883
INDEXINDEX POINT CHANGE FROM Q2
INCREASE DECREASE NO CHANGE
19Copyright © 2014 The Nielsen Company
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN THE MIDDLE EAST/AFRICA REGIONConsumerconfidenceincreasedinallfivecountriesmeasuredinthe
MiddleEast/Africaregioninthethirdquarter.At112,theUnitedArab
Emirateshadthehighestindexintheregion,anincreaseofthreepoints
fromthesecondquarter.ConfidenceincreasedtheepointsinSaudi
Arabiato105,fourpointsinPakistanto103,fourpointsinEgyptto85
andonepointinSouthAfricato86.
“ConsumersintheUnitedArabEmiratescontinuetobebullishabout
futureeconomicprospects,”saidArslanAshraf,managingdirector,
Nielsen.“Despitethefactthatrisingrentsaredrivinginflationnorth
andconsumersaremitigatingriskviasavings,theyarestillupbeat
aboutfuturejobprospects.”
“InSaudiArabia,consumerconfidenceissteadilyheadingtowarda
scoreof112,whichwaslastreachedin2012beforeadrivetolegalize
theexpatworkforce,”saidAshraf.“Theeconomyisgraduallyrecovering
fromthechallengesposedbythelegalizationdriveformostof2013
andthebeginningof2014.However,whileconfidenceisexpectedtobe
bullishinthecomingdays,decliningoilpricesmightposerisks.”
Regionally,quarter-on-quarterdiscretionaryspendingintentions
increased3percentagepointsinthethirdquarterforplanstosave
(39%)and1percentagepointeachforinvesting(10%)andspendingon
holidays/vacations(18%).Aslightpullbackof1percentagepointeach
wasreportedforspendingonout-of-homeentertainment(19%)andnew
technologyproducts(18%).Twenty-twopercentofMiddleEast/Africa
respondentssaidtheyhadnosparecash,adeclineof3percentage
pointsfromthesecondquarterandthehighestpercentageofany
region.
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX INCREASES IN ALL MIDDLE EAST/AFRICA MARKETS
Source:NielsenGlobalSurveyofConsumerConfidence&SpendingIntentions,Q32014
3
3
4
4
1
UNITED ARAB EMIRATES
SAUDI ARABIA
PAKISTAN
EGYPT
SOUTH AFRICA
112
105
103
85
86
INDEXINDEX POINT CHANGE FROM Q2
INCREASE DECREASE NO CHANGE
20 QUARTER 3 2014 - GLOBAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE REPORT
CONFIDENCE RISES IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICAConsumerconfidenceincreasedtwoindexpointsinNigeriainthe
thirdquartertoascoreof123—thehighestscoreofthethreecountries
measuredinNielsen’smobilesurveyforSub-SaharanAfrica.Confidence
declinedsixpointseachinKenya(105)andGhana(97)fromthesecond
quarter.
ThethreecountrieswereaddedtoNielsen’smeasurementof
consumerconfidenceinthefirstquarterof2014usingamobilesurvey
methodology,whichdiffersfromtheonlinemethodologyusedtoreport
consumerconfidenceandspendingintentionsfortheother60countries
outlinedinthisreport.Assuch,thethreesub-SaharanAfricanmarkets
arenotincludedintheglobalorMiddleEast/Africaaveragesdiscussed
throughoutthisreport.
Theperceivedoutlookforjobprospectsincreased5percentagepoints
inNigeria(58%),butdeclined4percentagepointsinKenya(50%)and
1percentagepointinGhana(42%).Seventy-sevenpercentofNigerian
respondentswereconfidentabouttheirpersonalfinances,butonly
justoverhalf(52%)believednowwasagoodtimetospend.InKenya,
63%ofrespondentsbelievedmoneymattersweregoodorexcellent,
and36%wereconfidentintheircurrentspendingcapacity—adecline
of6percentagepointsfromthesecondquarter.Likewise,68%of
respondentsinGhanawereoptimisticabouttheirfinances,and30%of
respondentswereconfidentaboutspending.
Themajorityofrespondentsinthethreecountries(69%inGhana,
64%inNigeriaand62%inKenya)didnothavesparecash,alevelthat
increasedineachcountryfromthesecondquarter.Amongthosewho
didhavediscretionaryfunds,savingwasapriorityfor84%inGhana,
83%inKenyaand83%inNigeria,followedbyspendingonhome
improvementprojects(77%inKenya,72%inNigeriaand69%
inGhana).
SPARE CASH SPENDING INTENTIONS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
21Copyright © 2014 The Nielsen Company
SPARE CASH SPENDING INTENTIONS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
SAVINGS
HOME IMPROVEMENTS/DECORATING
RETIREMENT FUND
NEW TECHNOLOGY PRODUCTS
NEW CLOTHES
OUT-OF-HOME ENTERTAINMENT
PAYING OFF DEBTS/CREDIT CARDS/LOANS
HOLIDAYS/VACATIONS
INVESTING IN SHARES OF STOCK/MUTUAL FUNDS
Source:NielsenGlobalSurveyofConsumerConfidence&SpendingIntentions,Q32014 BasedonMobileSurveyMethodology
PERCENT PLANNING TO SPEND DISCRETIONARY INCOME ON THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
GHANA
KENYA
NIGERIA
84 59
69
35 37 31 27 24 17
83
83
61
62
77
72
45
29
29
50
51
44
39
46
24
35
22
23
22 QUARTER 3 2014 - GLOBAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE REPORT
Source:InternetWorldStats,December31,2013
MARKET INTERNET PENETRATION
Australia 87%
China 46%
HongKong 75%
India 16%
Indonesia 22%
Japan 86%
Malaysia 67%
NewZealand 87%
Philippines 41%
Singapore 73%
South Korea 85%
Taiwan 80%
Thailand 30%
Vietnam 44%
MARKET INTERNET PENETRATION MARKET INTERNET
PENETRATION
MARKET INTERNET PENETRATION
Austria 81%
Belgium 82%
Bulgaria 53%
Croatia 71%
CzechRepublic 74%
Denmark 95%
Estonia 80%
MARKET INTERNET PENETRATION
Egypt 50%
Pakistan 15%
SaudiArabia 61%
SouthAfrica 49%
UnitedArabEmirates
88%
MARKET INTERNET PENETRATION
Canada 91%
UnitedStates 84%
MARKET MOBILE PENETRATION*
Ghana 99%
Kenya 68%
Nigeria 64%
COUNTRIES IN THE STUDY
ASIA-PACIFIC
EUROPE
MIDDLE EAST / AFRICA
NORTH AMERICA
SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
LATIN AMERICAEUROPE
Finland 92%
France 83%
Germany 86%
Greece 60%
Hungary 73%
Ireland 78%
Israel 71%
Italy 59%
Latvia 75%
Lithuania 69%
Netherlands 94%
Norway 95%
Poland 65%
Portugal 62%
Romania 50%
Russia 61%
Serbia 57%
Slovakia 79%
Slovenia 73%
Spain 75%
Sweden 95%
Switzerland 87%
Turkey 46%
UnitedKingdom 90%
Ukraine 42%
Argentina 75%
Brazil 54%
Chile 67%
Colombia 62%
Mexico 44%
Peru 39%
Venezuela 45%
*BasedonmobilehandsetsdividedbypopulationSource:CIAWorldFactbook,2012
23Copyright © 2014 The Nielsen Company
ABOUT NIELSEN NielsenN.V.(NYSE:NLSN)isaglobalinformationandmeasurement
companywithleadingmarketpositionsinmarketingandconsumer
information,televisionandothermediameasurement,online
intelligenceandmobilemeasurement.Nielsenhasapresencein
approximately100countries,withheadquartersinNewYork,USA
andDiemen,theNetherlands.
Formoreinformation,visitwww.nielsen.com.
Copyright©2014TheNielsenCompany.Allrightsreserved.Nielsenand
theNielsenlogoaretrademarksorregisteredtrademarksofCZT/ACN
Trademarks,L.L.C.Otherproductandservicenamesaretrademarksor
registeredtrademarksoftheirrespectivecompanies.14/8221
ABOUT THE NIELSEN GLOBAL SURVEY TheNielsenGlobalSurveyofConsumerConfidenceandSpending
IntentionswasconductedAug.13–Sept.5,2014andpolledmorethan
30,000onlineconsumersin60countriesthroughoutAsia-Pacific,
Europe,LatinAmerica,theMiddleEast/AfricaandNorthAmerica.
Thesamplehasquotasbasedonageandsexforeachcountrybased
onitsInternetusersandisweightedtoberepresentativeofInternet
consumers.Ithasamarginoferrorof±0.6%.ThisNielsensurveyis
basedonlyonthebehaviorofrespondentswithonlineaccess.Internet
penetrationratesvarybycountry.Nielsenusesaminimumreporting
standardof60%Internetpenetrationoranonlinepopulationof10
millionforsurveyinclusion.TheChinaConsumerConfidenceIndex
iscompiledfromaseparatemixedmethodologysurveyamong3,500
respondentsinChina.Thesub-SaharanAfricancountriesinthisstudy
arecompiledfromaseparatemobilemethodologysurveyamong1,600
respondentsinGhana,KenyaandNigeria.TheNielsenGlobalSurvey,
whichincludestheGlobalConsumerConfidenceIndex,wasestablished
in2005.
24 QUARTER 3 2014 - GLOBAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE REPORT