Technical Assistance Consultant’s Report (Kien Giang Atlas) This consultant’s report does not necessarily reflect the views of ADB or the Government concerned, and ADB and the Government cannot be held liable for its contents. (For project preparatory technical assistance: All the views expressed herein may not be incorporated into the proposed project’s design. (VIETNAMESE) Project Number: 43295 December 2011 Socialist Republic of Viet Nam: Climate Change Impact and Adaptation Study in the Mekong Delta (Cofinanced by the Climate Change Fund and the Government of Australia) Prepared by Peter Mackay and Michael Russell Sinclair Knight Merz (SKM) Melbourne, Australia For Vietnam Institute of Meteorology, Hydrology and Environment (IMHEN) and the Kien Giang Peoples Committee
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Technical Assistance Consultants Report (Kien Giang Atlas)
This consultants report does not necessarily reflect the views of ADB or the Government concerned, and ADB and the Government cannot be held liable for its contents. (For project preparatory technical assistance: All the views expressed herein may not be incorporated into the proposed projects design.
(VIETNAMESE) Project Number: 43295 December 2011
Socialist Republic of Viet Nam: Climate Change Impact and Adaptation Study in the Mekong Delta (Cofinanced by the Climate Change Fund and the Government of Australia)
Prepared by Peter Mackay and Michael Russell
Sinclair Knight Merz (SKM)
Melbourne, Australia
For Vietnam Institute of Meteorology, Hydrology and Environment (IMHEN) and the Kien Giang Peoples Committee
Nghin cu tc ng ca Bin i kh hu n ng bng sng Cu Long v xut cc gii php thch ng
Tp bn Kin Giang Thng 12 nm 2011
y ban Nhn dn Tnh Kin Giang Vin Kh tng, Thy vn v Mi trng
NGHIN CU TC NG CA BIN I KH HU N NG BNG SNG CU LONG V XUT CC GII PHP THCH NG (PHN A ) TP BN KIN GIANG
2
Nghin cu tc ng ca Bin i kh hu n ng bng sng Cu Long v xut cc gii php thch ng-Phn A
TP BN KIN GIANG
Thng 12, 2011
Mc d n lc ht sc m bo rng cc thng tin, kin v phn tch trong ti liu ny da trncc ngun ng tin cy vn khng c i din no, th hin ra hay ng , c th m bo tnh chnhxc, y , ng n ca chng. ng bin gii, mu sc, tn gi, v cc thng tin khc hin th trnbt c bn no trong sn phm ny khng hm bt k phn quyt no ca cc tc gi lin quan nt cch php l ca bt k vng lnh th no hoc chng thc hoc chp nhn nhng ng ranh gii . Khng c ngha v hay trch nhim php l no i vi nhng hu qu do bn th ba gy ra khi sthng tin, kin v phn tch trong bo co ny.
nh ba; M Kowel
GII THIU 4
M HNH BKH V CC KCH BN PHT THI 5
CC BIN S BIN I KH HU 6
CC NGUY C CA BIN I KH HU 8
L LT V NGP NG 11 XM NHP MN 12 TRIU CNG 13 BO 14
NH GI TNH D B TN THNG 15
XC NH V PHN TCH RI RO TNG LAI 18
TNH KIN GIANG 21
TNH D B TN THNG V DN S - TNH KIN GIANG 23
TNH D B TN THNG V NGHO I, TNH KIN GIANG 24
TNH D B TN THNG V NNG NGHIP V SINH K, TNH KIN GIANG 25
TNH D B TN THNG V NNG LNG V CNG NGHIP, TNH KIN GIANG 27
TNH D B TN THNG V NH C TH V GIAO THNG VN TI, TNH KIN GIANG 28
TNG HP TNH D B TN THNG KHU VC TNH KIN GIANG 29
RCH GI 31 H TIN 33 AN BIN 35 AN MINH 37 CHU THNH 39 GIANG THNH 41 GING RING 43 G QUAO 45 HN T 47 KIN HI 49 KIN LNG 51 PH QUC 53 TN HIP 55 U MINH THNG 57 VNH THUN 59
NGHIN CU TC NG CA BIN I KH HU N NG BNG SNG CU LONG V XUT CC GII PHP THCH NG (PHN A ) TP BN KIN GIANG
ATLAS OF MAPS 3
NGHIN CU TC NG CA BIN I KH HU N NG BNG SNG CU LONG V XUT CC GII PHP THCH NG (PHN A ) TP BN KIN GIANG
4
Gii thiu Nghin cu ny c thc hin 2 tnh ca ng bng sng Cu Long l Kin Giang v C Mau, vi mc ch cung cp cho nhng nh hoch nh chnh sch ca tnh v huyn nhng hiu bit v tnh d b tn thng v cc im nng lin quan n Bin i kh hu trong giai on n nm 2050. Nghin cu tp trung vo tnh d b tn thng v cc lnh vc Kinh t-x hi, nng nghip, sinh k, nh c th, giao thng vn ti, cng nghip v nng lng.
Thi k c s c s dng trong nghin cu ny l nm 1980-1999 (V trn l thng 9 nm 2000), v cc nm 2030 v 2050 cng c la chn xy dng m hnh theo cc kch bn pht thi kh nh knh la chn (B2 v A2). Nhng m hnh c thc hin bao gm m hnh Bin i kh hu ( chi tit ha cho khu vc), m hnh thy vn (B2 v A2) v m hnh i b (B2).
Mc ch chnh ca nghin cu nh gi tnh d b tn thng ny nhm xc nh v nh gi tnh d b tn thng sinh l v x hi ca 2 tnh C Mau v Kin Giang. Trong bi cnh ny, v cho cc mc ch ca bo co ny, tnh d b tn thng c xem nh l mt hm ca:
S phi l vi cc iu kin kh hu v nhy cm vi tc ng ca bin i kh hu; Tn s, cng v mc ri ro lin quan n kh hu ca cng ng, nh gi v xc sut xy ra (kh nng)
v tm quan trng ca cc nguy c (hu qu);
Nng lc hoc nng lc thch ng ng ph vi cc ri ro lin quan n kh hu (bao gm c cc bin php thch ng, chin lc i ph, hnh ng phn ng vi nhng tc ng hoc gim thiu ri ro)..
Phng php tip cn
Theo mc ch ca nghin cu ny, chng ti thng qua mt tiu chun Khung v Phng php lun nh gi tng quan tnh d b tn thng v ri ro (VRA) c tnh tnh d b tn thng tng hp cho 5 lnh vc sau: dn s, ngho i, nng nghip v sinh k, cng nghip v nng lng; cc khu nh c th v giao thng vn ti. Cch tip cn ny da trn phng php tip cn chung ca IPCC c chp nhn nh gi tnh d b tn thng cho h thng t nhin, kt hp vi mt cch tip cn da vo ri ro nh gi tc ng ca thin tai nh ngp lt, l lt v nc bin dng n h thng x hi v con ngi.
Vic tch hp cc phng php tip cn da vo ri ro v da vo tnh d b tn thng c xem l mt phng tin cn thit v thc t cho vic phn tch v nhn bit c cc mi e da n h thng t nhin v con ngi do cc tc ng ca BKH, v c nhng nguy c khng lin quan n kh hu. Nu t tnh d b tn thng x hi trong bi cnh ri ro, v xem xt tnh d b tn thng v nguy c tng ng nhau, chng ti thit lp c mt khung tng i n gin nhng thc t nh gi c khng gian a l v cc lnh vc d b tn thng ng bng sng Cu Long. Cch tip cn ny cho thy s cn thit trong vic khng ch xc nh i tng no trong x hi d b tn thng nht m cn xc nh c s h tng v dch v no c th phi l v d b tn thng nhiu hn, v phn nh s a dng v phc tp ca h thng con ngi v t nhin, v kt hp cc kha cnh x hi nh dn s, ngho i, sc khe ..., cng nh cc thuc tnh sinh hc-vt l ca a hnh, ti nguyn thin nhin v c s h tng vt cht.
Bin i kh hu ti ng bng sng Cu Long Bin i kh hu l mt thch thc ln v mi trng i vi Vit Nam. Biu hin chnh ca bin i kh hu l s nng ln ton cu do pht thi kh nh knh t cc hot ng ca con ngi. Bin i kh hu cng dn n bin ng mnh v lng ma v s gia tng cc hin tng thi tit v kh hu cc oan nh l lt v hn hn. Mc nc bin dng cao cng s nh hng trc tip n vng ven bin, c kh nng trn vo t lin hoc lm tng mn, lm mt dn rng ngp mn v tng chi ph xy dng cc cng trnh c s h tng ven bin, v d nh xy mi cc cng v cc khu vc th ven bin.
Hu ht din tch vng ng bng sng Cu Long cao di 5m so vi mc nc bin, bin n tr thnh 1 trong 3 vng ng bng d b tn thng nht trn th gii bi s gia tng mc nc bin. Khong 38% din tch ca ng bng s b ngp di nc, nu nc bin tng 1m. Vi s thay i kh hu ton cu, tc ng v tn s ca cc hin tng thi tit khc nghit c d kin s tng. S gia tng mc v thi gian l lt, nhng thay i trong ma ma v lng ma ma kh, ngp lt do mc nc bin dng v xm nhp mn c th l mi e da ng k n nng sut nng nghip v thy sn ca khu vc, cng nh cc h sinh thi t nhin cn li ven bin.
Kh hu vng ng bng l kh hu nhit i gi ma v chu nh hng ca c gi ma Ty Nam v ng Bc. Nhn chung, ma kh ko di t thng mi hai n thng t trong khi ma ma t thng nm n thng mi mt. Nhit trung bnh hng nm vng ng bng l xp x 28C. Lng bc hi trung bnh hng thng l khong 150 mm. Lng ma hng thng thay i t 0 mm vo ma kh v khong 250 mm vo ma ma. C s khc bit ng k v lng ma hng nm ti mi khu vc vng ng bng. Lng ma trung bnh hng nm dao ng t di 1.500 mm khu vc min Trung v Ty Bc n hn 2.350 mm pha Nam.
L lt l c tnh chung trong khu vc ng bng v ngi dn phi quen vi vic ng u vi vn ny. Gn y Chnh ph Vit Nam p dng Chin lc Sng chung vi l cho khu vc ng bng sng Mekong, ch trng hn ti cng tc phng chng l lt v bo tn h thng t nhin v cc chc nng sinh thi.
BN KHU VC NGHIN CU
NGHIN CU TC NG CA BIN I KH HU N NG BNG SNG CU LONG V XUT CC GII PHP THCH NG (PHN A ) TP BN KIN GIANG
ATLAS OF MAPS 5
M hnh BKH v cc kch bn pht thi Kch bn pht thi kh nh knh Nm 2000, IPCC cng b cc kch bn pht thi kh nh knh d kin v c th s dng nh gi cc tc ng tim nng ca bin i kh hu. Trong Bo co c bit v cc kch bn pht thi kh nh knh nm 2000, c bit n rng ri l "cc kch bn pht thi SRES, cc kch bn pht thi ny c t hp thnh 4 kch bn gc l A1, A2, B1 v B2, vi xu hng pht trin khc nhau, bao trm phm vi rng cc lc lng ch cht v dn s, kinh t v k thut:
Kch bn gc A1 Gi nh v mt th gii ca s tng trng kinh t nhanh chng; dn s th gii tng t nh vo gia th k ; cng vi truyn b nhanh chng cc cngh ngh mi, tn tin hn; Kch bn A1 c chia thnh 3 nhm m t cc hng thay i cng ngh thay th, nh: A1FI: Tip tc s dng thi qu nhin liu ha thch; A1T: Ch trng n vic s dng cc ngun nng lng phi ho thch; v A1B: cn bng gia tt c cc ngun.
Kch bn gc B1 M t mt th gii hi t vi dn s pht trin nhanh ging nh A1 nhng c s thay i nhanh chng hn na v c cu kinh t hng n nn kinh t dch v v thng tin.
Kch bn gc B2 M t mt th gii vi dn s v pht trin kinh t mc trung bnh, ch trng n cc gii php mang tnh a phng pht trin bn vng kinh t, x hi, v mi trng.
Kch bn gc A2 M t mt th gii khng ng nht, dn s tip tc tng; nn kinh t chm pht trin ; chm thay i v cng ngh.
Cc d bo pht thi c s dng rng ri trong vic nh gi bin i kh hu trong tng lai, v cc gi nh c bn lin quan n thay i kinh t x hi, c cu dn s v thay i cng ngh nh l u vo cho vic nh gi tc ng v tnh d b tn thng i vi bin i kh hu. Qu o pht thi kh nh knh theo cc kch bn khc nhau c m t trong Hnh 1.
Pht thi ton cu hin ang tin n gn (hoc c th cao hn) kch bn pht thi ti t nht (A1F1 hoc A2) v khng chc chn rng pht thi s nm cc pht thi thp hoc trung bnh vo nm 2030.
Cc kch bn bin i kh hu, nc bin dng cho Vit Nam c xy dng v cng b nm 2009 theo cc kch bn pht thi kh nh knh mc thp (B1), trung bnh (B2) v cao (A2, A1FI). Kch bn trung bnh B2 c khuyn ngh cho cc B, ngnh v a phng lm nh hng nh gi ban u tc ng ca bin i kh hu, nc bin dng v xy dng k hoch hnh ng ng ph vi bin i kh hu. K tha kt qu ca cc nghin cu trc lm c s, m hnh nc bin dng v BKH cp nht nm 2011 la chn cc kch bn pht thi kh nh knh sau: B1 (kch bn thp) , B2, A1B (kch bn trung bnh), A2 v A1FI (kch bn cao).
Theo mc ch ca nghin cu ny, m hnh bin i kh hu (bao gm c chi tit ha khu vc) c hon thnh bi IMHEN s dng kch bn B2 v A2, c
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