Constructing population time series with an ethnic breakdown for sub-national areas in England and Wales, 1991-2001 Albert Sabater PhD student at CCSR.

Constructing population time series with an ethnic breakdown for sub-national areas in England and Wales, 1991-2001

Albert Sabater

PhD student at CCSRUniversity of Manchester

[email protected]

CCSR Seminars 2007

27th March 2007

mailto:[email protected]

Motivation


-Can we say that York’s Indian population is growing without taking into account boundary changes?

-Can we say that Birmingham’s Caribbean population is ageing without taking into account different treatment of undercount?

-Can we compare published statistics by ethnic group from 1991 and 2001 census output without adjustments?

Summary

1. Aim

2. Problems

3. Research strategy

4. Some results

5. Dissemination of data


1. Full population estimates for 1991 and 2001, age, sex, ethnic group, using 2001 Census boundaries

2. Analysis of population change between 1991 and 2001

Detail: Age: 91 categoriesSex: 2 categories Ethnic group: 10 (1991) and 16 (2001)

Aim

Mid-1991 small area population estimates

Districts

Wards

Output Areas


Districts

Wards

Output Areas

Problems

Problem 4Boundary changes

Problem 3Ethnic group and age categories

Problem 2Treatment of non-response

Problem 1Population definition

-Enumeration of students

-Timing adjustment

1991 2001

• Data linked: 1971-1981-1991 Censuses• Geographies: wards and levels above in E&W and

Scotland• Correction for students and timing transfer• Allowance of non-response (missing million from EwC)• Ethnic groups: White, Asian, Black and Other

Previous work: Linking Censuses Through Time (LCT)

LCT constraints by ethnic group: • Not cross-tabulated by age and sex• Non-response not updated with latest ONS MYEs• Non-response not differential by ethnic group

Revising 1991 MYEs without ethnic group

1991 EwC MYE = census + undercount + timing adjustment + student transfer

From 1991 Enumeration Districts to 2001 Output AreasSTEP 1

PART 1. EwC data (EWCPOP for EDs)

Boundary change 1991 2001Source geography Target geography

No (direct allocation)

Yes (multiple allocation)

Yes (multiple allocation with intersection)

Area 1 Zone 1

Zone 2

Area 2

Area 3

Area 4

Area 5Zone 3

Zone 4

Weight*0.6*0.4

Using Geographical Conversion Tables


PART 1. EwC data (EWCPOP for EDs) &ONS data (revised MYEs for Districts)



Aggregation to 2001 Districts ONS revised 1991District MYE

Revision of 1991 undercount

STEP 2

Revision of 1991 undercount after 2001

Downwards -350K




Aggregation to 2001 Districts ONS revised 1991District MYE

Revision of 1991 undercount

STEP 2

Derive single year of ageSTEP 3

PART 1. EwC data (EWCPOP for EDs) &ONS data (revised MYEs for Districts)

Revising 1991 MYEs by ethnic group

1991 Census = SOCPOP

PART 2. EwC data (SOCPOP for wards) &Previous estimate (PART 1 for OAs)

Share SOCPOP from 1991 wards to 1991 Enumeration DistrictsSTEP 1


Scale to 1991 revised MYE without ethnic groupSTEP 3

Add student adjusmentSTEP 4

OPTION 1

Addition & Removal:2001 term-time students

OPTION 2

Addition & Removal: 1991 resident population

OPTION 3

Addition & Removal:Net impact only on

White students

OPTION 4

Addition: 2001 term-time students

Removal: 1991 resident population

1991 ethnic group student adjustment

Total Net impact = Students added + Students removed

Using EwC data (by age and sex for EDs)

Ethnic group dimension

Percentage distribution between ethnic groups of those aged 20-24

Ethnic group PopulationThis address Other address

1 White 93.1 85.8 93.82 Black Caribbean 1.1 1.1 0.33 Black African 0.5 1.3 0.34 Black other 0.4 0.5 0.25 Indian 1.8 3.8 2.66 Pakistani 1.1 2.1 0.67 Bangladeshi 0.3 0.4 0.28 Chinese 0.5 2 0.79 Other-Asian 0.5 1.6 0.410 Other-other 0.7 1.3 0.8

Total N=100% 121,820 16,642 7,076

Students: term-time address:

Source: 1991 SAR

Revising 1991 MYEs by ethnic group

1991 Census = SOCPOP

PART 2. EwC data (SOCPOP for wards) &Previous estimate (PART 1 for OAs)

Share the SOCPOP from 1991 wards to 1991 Enumeration DistrictsSTEP 1


Scale to 1991 revised MYE without ethnic groupSTEP 3

Add student adjusmentSTEP 4

Derive single year of ageSTEP 5

From 2001 Output Areas to wards and DistrictsSTEP 6

2001 MYEs by ethnic group

2001 One Number Census

Timing adjustment

ONS data from experimental statistics (for Districts)

STEP 1

2001 timing – England ‘9 weeks April 29 to June 30’

Births DeathsMigration



Timing adjustment

ONS data from experimental statistics (for districts) & non-response imputation rates

STEP 1

Extra non-response ONS imputation ratesSTEP 2

2001 extra non-response using ONS imputation rates

2001 extra non-response in Birmingham

ONS imputation rates ONS experimental statistics

2001 ST wards

Output Areas


Timing adjustment

Extra non-response ONS imputation rates

STEP 4

STEP 1

STEP 2

STEP 3

ONS data from experimental statistics (for districts) & non-response imputation rates


Population change 1991-2001 for Districts in E&W

Censuses 1991 and 2001 as published Full estimate with 2001 boundaries

Population Change: Decrease Increase, 0-10% Increase, >10%

3.1 -3 2.4 2.4 -0.4 -0.4 -0.4 -0.4

2.7 -2.4 -2.4 0.7 2.4 2.4 2.4 -0.4 -1.3 -1.3

0.3 0.3 9.4 9.4 2.3 2.3 2.4 -4.2 -4.2 -4.2 -1.3 -1.3

-2.2 -2.2 -2.3 -1 -4.2 -4.2 -3.1 -3.1 -3.1 -3.1

-2.6 -2.6 2.1 -3.7 -1 3.9 9.2 9.2 -3.1 -3.1

-1.5 -1.5 -3.7 -3.7 -1.1 -1.1 -4 -4 -1.9 -1.9 2.6 2.6

2.4 8.3 8.3 8.3 5.8 5.8 7.5 9.2 9.2 9.2 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.7 2.6 2.6

-2.5 -2.5 -2.5 2.4 3.4 3.4 2.8 4.3 4.8 4.8 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 9.3 9.3 9.3 10 -4.1 -4.1 -4.1 -4.1

0.2 0.2 1.8 1.8 4.2 4.2 2.8 2.8 3.9 3.9 -1.8 -1.8 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 0.1 0.1 -4.1 -4.1

-2.2 -0.7 -1.3 -1.3 -0.5 -0.5 1.1 1.1 0.6 0.6 0.6 0 1.6 1.6 2.4 2.4 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 7.5 7.5 7.6 7.6 -4.1 -4.1

-2.2 -2.2 -0.7 -0.7 -1.3 -1.3 -0.5 -0.5 1.1 1.1 2 2 1.6 1.6 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 4.2 1.4 1.4 1.4 -0.6 -0.6 7.6 7.6 -4.1 -4.1

-2.2 -2.2 -2.8 -2.8 -0.5 -0.5 1.1 1.1 2 2 -2 -2 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 2.4 2.4 4.2 4.2 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 -0.6 -0.6 7.6 7.6 -4.1 -4.1

-2.2 -2.2 -2.8 -2.8 -0.5 -3 -3 -3 -2 -2 -1.5 -1.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 2.5 2.5 -1.3 -1.3 -0.6 -0.6 7.6 0.3

-2.8 -2.8 -2.8 -2.8 -3 -3 -2 -2 -0.5 -0.5 -1.5 -1.5 -1.5 -1.5 4.2 4.2 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 -1.3 -1.3 -1.3 -1.3 0.3 0.3 -1.1 -1.1

-5.5 -5.5 -5.5 -5.5 -2.8 -2.8 -1.8 -1.8 -1.8 -1.8 -2 -2 -0.5 -0.5 -0.5 -0.5 -0.6 -0.6 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 -1.6 -1.6 -1.6 -1.6 -1.6 -1.6 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 -1.1 -1.1

-5.5 -5.5 -5.5 -5.5 -4.8 -4.8 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.4 -2 -2 -0.5 -0.5 5.1 5.1 1.6 1.6 -2.3 -2.3 3 3.3 3.3 3.6 3.6 3.6 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 12 12

0.9 0.9 6.9 6.9 6.9 6.9 -0.9 -0.9 -0.9 -0.9 3 3 4.1 4.1 3.7 3.7 0.6 0.6 3 3 6.2 6.2 8.2 8.2 8.4 8.4 3.7 3.7 4.3 4.3 3.9 3.9 13 12 12 0.7 8.7 8.7

5.1 5.1 2 2 7.4 7.4 2.5 2.5 2.5 -1 -1 -1 7 7 3.7 3.7 14 14 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 4.2 4.2 8.2 8.2 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 4.4 4.4 3.9 13 8.1 8.1 0.7 0.7 3.6 3.6

5.1 5.1 12 8.1 7.7 7.7 0 0 -2.8 -2.8 -2.2 -2.2 -2.2 -2.2 0.8 0.8 0.5 0.5 9.1 13 13 8.5 6.1 9.7 15 15 14 14 4.7 4.7 18 18 19 19 1.3 7.1 7.1 11 11 0.2 5.3 5.3

4.8 4.8 14 14 -1.6 -1.6 -2.8 -2.8 -2.8 -2.8 -2.2 -2.2 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 6.3 6.3 7.4 7.4 6.9 13 13 0.2 8.9 8.9 8.9 2 2 2 7.4 7.4 7.4 21 21 12 4.9 4.9 0.2 0.2 6.6 6.6

-3.4 -3.4 3.3 3.3 14 14 -1.6 -1.6 0 0 -2.4 -2.4 -2.4 -2.4 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 1.8 1.8 7.8 7.8 3.4 3.4 7.4 7.4 10 10 10 11 11 11 4.3 4.3 6.1 6.1 6.3 11 11 11 8.9 8.9 8.9 11 11 11

3.3 3.3 4.6 4.6 -1.6 -1.6 0 0 -2.4 -2.4 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 2.2 2.2 1.8 1.8 7.8 7.8 17 17 7.4 7.4 6.3 6.3 2.1 2.1 2.1 4.3 5.7 5.7 11 11 5.5 5.5 3.2 3.2 3.2 13

3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 5.8 4 1.9 1.9 0 0 0 -2.4 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 2.2 2.2 3.7 3.7 14 12 17 17 4.3 4.3 5.8 6.9 7.2 7.2 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.2 7 7 5.2 5.2 12 2.8 2.8 2.8 1.2 4.1

20 20 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 9.5 9.5 3.7 3.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 2.2 2.2 8.2 8.2 12 12 14 14 4.3 5.8 7.2 7.2 7.3 7.3 7.3 7.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 -3.1 -3.1 12 12 0.1 0.1 1.2 1.2 4.1 4.1

1 1 3 3 3 3 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.2 9.5 9.5 4.7 4.7 14 14 6 6 11 11 0.9 0.9 5.9 5.9 6 6 14 14 2.7 2.7 7.2 7.2 17 17 17 17 7.6 7.6 12 12 3.3 3.3 9 9 9 9 -2.2 -2.2

1 3 -5.5 -5.5 -3.1 -3.1 6.4 6.4 2.9 2.9 6.2 6.2 4.2 4.2 8.3 8.3 8 8 6.8 6.8 8.9 8.9 5.2 23 23 23 -0.7 -0.7 2.7 2.7 11 11 11 11 7.6 7.6 12 12 15 15 15 15 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.1 -2.2 -2.2

0.2 0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 0.4 0.4 2.9 2.9 12 12 12 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 12 12 5.5 5.5 5.2 5.2 7.4 7.4 2.7 2.7 4.8 4.8 7.9 7.9 11 11 14 4.5 4.5 38 22 22 22 15 4.1 4.1 4.1 1 -2.2 -2.2

0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.1 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 6.7 6.7 5.5 5.5 5.8 5.8 5.8 11 11 11 1.6 1.6 4.8 4.8 7.9 12 14 14 9.4 9.4 12 12 12 12 4.1 4.1 1 1 1 1

-2.7 -2.7 -2.7 -2.7 -0.3 -0.3 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.1 6.3 6.3 6.3 6.3 6.7 6.7 6.7 6.7 6.8 6.8 8 8 14 14 8.9 8.9 4.8 4.8 7.9 7.9 12 12 3.1 3.1 9.4 9.4 9.4 12 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 3.6 3.6 6.1 6.1 9.4 2.7

-0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 1.7 1.7 11 8.3 8.3 8.8 8.8 8.8 9.6 9.6 9 9 5.5 5.5 14 14 1.7 1.7 2.5 2.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 10 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 7.2 7.2 7.2 7.2 1.6 1.6 8.4 8.4 2.1 6.1 9.4 9.4 2.7 2.7

3.4 3.4 9.4 9.4 6.6 6.6 19 6.5 10 10 11 11 1 1 1 1 6.1 6.1 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 10 10 12 12 12 12 7.2 7.2 5.5 5.5 4 4 2.1 2.1 5.2 5.2 1.3 1.3

6.3 13 8.7 8.5 8.5 8.5 8.2 8.2 4.7 4.1 6.5 9.2 5.7 5.7 10 10 3.2 5.6 5.6 5.6 3.5 3.5 6.6 6.6 0.1 0.1 6.4 6.4 6.4 6.4 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.7 4 4 4 11 11

12 12 8.7 8.7 14 14 4.2 4.7 4.1 4.1 10 10 5.7 5.7 9.6 9.6 7 7 5.2 5.2 2.6 2.6 1.7 1.7 7.5 7.5 6.8 6.8 4.6 4.6 0.4 0.4 5.7 5.7 5.3 5.3

6.3 11 11 9.1 -1.1 -1.1 5.8 8.7 8.1 8.1 8.1 8.1 10 10 1.7 1.7 8.9 8.9 7 7 8.8 8.8 8.8 12 12 12 14 14 3.4 3.4 8 8 10 10 4.7 4.7

5.7 6.3 4.3 4.3 -1.1 -1.1 -1.1 5.8 -2.5 -2.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 2.8 8.4 8.4 8.4 8.4 8.4 8.4 5.5 5.5

4.8 6.4 6.7 6.7

2.8 -3 1 1 -1.3 -1.3 -1.3 -1.3

2.8 -2.1 -2.1 -0.1 1 1 1 -1.3 -2.5 -2.5

-0.5 -0.5 9 9 1.7 1.7 1 -5.2 -5.2 -5.2 -2.5 -2.5

-2.6 -2.6 -2.7 -1.6 -5.2 -5.2 -3.8 -3.8 -3.8 -3.8

-3.1 -3.1 0.7 -4.3 -1.6 3.4 2.1 2.1 -3.8 -3.8

-1.9 -1.9 -4.3 -4.3 -1.5 -1.5 -4.7 -4.7 -1 -1 4.9 4.9

1.8 3.4 3.4 3.4 4.1 4.1 6.7 8 8 8 6.3 6.3 6.3 3.8 4.9 4.9

-4.3 -4.3 -4.3 1.8 1.9 1.9 0.3 4.4 4.4 4.4 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 5.2 5.2 5.2 10 -4.6 -4.6 -2.4 -2.4

-0.5 -0.5 1.4 1.4 3.7 3.7 0.3 0.3 3.6 3.6 -2.7 -2.7 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 -2.3 -2.3 -4.6 -2.4

-3.4 -2.5 -1.8 -1.8 -1.4 -1.4 -0 -0 0.8 0.8 0.8 -0.2 1.2 1.2 0.4 0.4 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 6.6 6.6 6.9 6.9 -5.1 -5.1

-3.4 -3.4 -2.5 -2.5 -1.8 -1.8 -1.4 -1.4 -0 -0 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.2 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 2.6 0.3 0.3 0.3 -1.6 -1.6 6.9 6.9 -5.1 -5.1

-3.4 -3.4 -7.1 -7.1 -1.4 -1.4 -0 -0 1.3 1.3 -2.3 -2.3 0 0 -0.3 -0.3 0.4 0.4 2.6 2.6 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 -1.6 -1.6 6.9 6.9 -5.1 -5.1

-3.4 -3.4 -7.1 -7.1 -1.4 -6 -6 -6 -2.3 -2.3 -2.3 -2.3 0 0 -0.3 -0.3 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 -1.3 -1.3 -2.3 -2.3 -1.6 -1.6 6.9 0

-7.1 -7.1 -7.1 -7.1 -6 -6 -2.3 -2.3 -1.4 -1.4 -2.3 -2.3 -2.3 -2.3 2.6 2.6 -1.3 -1.3 -1.3 -1.3 -1.3 -1.3 -2.3 -2.3 -2.3 -2.3 0 0 -1.9 -1.9

-5.8 -5.8 -5.8 -5.8 -7.1 -7.1 -2.6 -2.6 -2.6 -2.6 -2.3 -2.3 -1.4 -1.4 -0.9 -0.9 -0.9 -0.9 -1.3 -1.3 -1.3 -1.3 -2.1 -2.1 -2.1 -2.1 -2.1 -2.1 -3.8 -3.8 -3.8 -3.8 -1.9 -1.9

-5.8 -5.8 -5.8 -5.8 -5 -5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 -2.3 -2.3 -1.4 -1.4 4.6 4.6 1.3 1.3 -2.9 -2.9 2.4 3.1 3.1 2.9 2.9 2.9 1.2 1.2 -3.8 -3.8 11 11

0.5 0.5 7.2 7.2 7.2 7.2 -0.4 -0.4 -0.4 -0.4 2.2 2.2 3.9 3.9 3.2 3.2 -0.7 -0.7 2.4 2.4 5.8 5.8 4.8 4.8 7.4 7.4 0.5 0.5 4.1 4.1 3.4 3.4 13 11 11 -2.1 7.4 7.4

4.6 4.6 0.7 0.7 6.6 6.6 1 1 1 -1.2 -1.2 -1.2 6.1 6.1 3.2 3.2 12 12 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.6 3.6 4.8 4.8 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 1.9 1.9 3.4 13 7.2 7.2 -2.1 -2.1 2.6 2.6

4.6 4.6 8.9 7 6.2 6.2 -3.2 -3.2 -4.2 -4.2 -3 -3 -3 -3 -2 -2 0.1 0.1 8.9 13 13 5.5 5.6 4.8 14 14 14 14 4.6 4.6 18 18 3.1 3.1 -2.7 6.3 6.3 10 10 -1 4.2 4.2

4.1 4.1 12 12 -3.6 -3.6 -4.2 -4.2 -4.2 -4.2 -3 -3 -2 -2 -2 -2 5.8 5.8 7.4 7.4 6.2 12 12 0.3 7.6 7.6 7.6 2.1 2.1 2.1 7 7 7 21 21 11 4.2 4.2 -1 -1 1.7 1.7

-1.9 -1.9 1.6 1.6 12 12 -3.6 -3.6 -0.9 -0.9 -2.7 -2.7 -2.7 -2.7 -2 -2 -2 -2 1.2 1.2 5.6 5.6 3.1 3.1 7 7 9.1 9.1 9.1 9.4 9.4 9.4 4.2 4.2 5.4 5.4 5.5 11 11 11 6.6 6.6 6.6 10 10 10

1.6 1.6 4.1 4.1 -3.6 -3.6 -0.9 -0.9 -2.7 -2.7 -2 -2 -2 -2 -0.4 -0.4 1.5 1.5 5.6 5.6 19 19 7 7 4.9 4.9 2.3 2.3 2.3 4.2 4 4 10 10 5.1 5.1 2.4 2.4 2.4 13

1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 5.4 3.8 1.3 1.3 -0.9 -0.9 -0.9 -2.7 -2 -2 -2 -2 -0.4 -0.4 3 3 15 12 19 19 3.5 3.5 5 7.3 7.3 7.3 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.7 6.7 4.6 4.6 11 2.5 2.5 2.5 -0.5 4.2

14 14 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 9 9 3.2 3.2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -0.4 -0.4 -0.4 -0.4 -0.4 -0.4 6.8 6.8 6.3 6.3 13 13 3.5 5 7.3 7.3 6.9 6.9 6.9 6.9 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 -3.1 -3.1 11 11 -0.2 -0.2 -0.5 -0.5 4.2 4.2

0.5 0.5 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.6 9 9 3.2 3.2 12 12 5.6 5.6 11 11 0 0 5.8 5.8 5.2 5.2 13 13 3.5 3.5 7.3 7.3 12 12 12 12 4.4 4.4 12 12 2.8 2.8 9 9 9 9 -2.7 -2.7

0.5 2.3 -5.7 -5.7 -3.7 -3.7 6 6 1.6 1.6 5.6 5.6 3.8 3.8 6.2 6.2 8.2 8.2 2.8 2.8 7.4 7.4 3.3 5.1 5.1 5.1 -0.2 -0.2 3.5 3.5 12 12 12 12 4.4 4.4 12 12 15 15 15 15 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.5 -2.7 -2.7

-2.7 -2.7 -1.3 -1.3 -0.6 -0.6 -0.1 -0.1 1.6 1.6 11 11 11 -0.5 -0.5 -0.5 -0.5 -0.5 11 11 5 5 3.3 3.3 6.9 6.9 2 2 4.8 4.8 8.3 8.3 12 12 13 9.9 9.9 37 21 21 21 15 3.1 3.1 3.1 0.3 -2.7 -2.7

-2.7 -2.7 -2.7 -2.7 -1.3 -1.3 -0.6 -0.6 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.4 -0.5 -0.5 -0.5 -0.5 3.7 3.7 5 5 4.1 4.1 4.1 7.3 7.3 7.3 2.9 2.9 4.8 4.8 8.3 10 13 13 7.2 7.2 13 13 13 13 3.1 3.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3

-3.2 -3.2 -3.2 -3.2 -1.3 -1.3 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.4 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.4 3.7 3.7 5 5 2.8 2.8 6.5 6.5 14 14 5.1 5.1 4.8 4.8 8.3 8.3 10 10 3.7 3.7 7.2 7.2 7.2 13 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 2.7 2.7 6 6 4.5 0.5

-0.6 -0.6 -0.6 -0.6 1 1 9.9 7.6 7.6 6.8 6.8 6.8 9.4 9.4 8.2 8.2 5.2 5.2 12 12 1 1 2.3 2.3 5.9 5.9 4.6 9.5 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 5.9 5.9 5.9 5.9 0.9 0.9 7.3 7.3 1.5 6 4.5 4.5 0.5 0.5

3.1 3.1 7.7 7.7 5.9 5.9 16 6.6 8.6 8.6 9 9 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 3 3 5.9 5.9 4.6 4.6 9.5 9.5 12 12 12 12 5.9 5.9 6.1 6.1 3 3 1.5 1.5 3.6 3.6 0.2 0.2

6.1 12 8.1 6.8 6.8 6.8 7.3 7.3 2.7 3.3 6.6 8.5 5.4 5.4 5.8 5.8 3.8 5.2 5.2 5.2 3.8 3.8 7.9 7.9 -0.4 -0.4 6.7 6.7 6.7 6.7 6.1 6.1 6.1 6.1 5.5 3 3 3 11 11

11 11 6.6 6.6 6.1 6.1 2.9 2.7 3.3 3.3 7.2 7.2 5.4 5.4 9.1 9.1 0.7 0.7 4.6 4.6 0.5 0.5 1.4 1.4 7.1 7.1 6 6 2.5 2.5 -0.1 -0.1 5.5 5.5 3.2 3.2

5.7 10 10 9.1 -4.1 -4.1 4.9 6.6 4 4 4 4 7.2 7.2 0.3 0.3 8.6 8.6 0.7 0.7 8.1 8.1 8.1 11 11 11 14 14 2.8 2.8 7.1 7.1 6.5 6.5 3.3 3.3

5.1 5.7 2.9 2.9 -4.1 -4.1 -4.1 4.9 -2.4 -2.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 2 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 4.6 4.6

6.5 5.8 5.6 5.6

Note: Base map created by Danny Dorling and Helen Durham

Ethnic group Census Full population1991 and 2001 2001 Timing Students estimate withas published boundaries and transferred to 2001

non-response term-time address boundaries1 White

-8.82% -9.82% -10.29% -10.21% -10.67%2 Caribbean

6.84% 6.30% -9.60% 5.99% -9.82%3 African

121.84% 120.68% 90.48% 106.57% 80.38%4 Indian

9.19% 9.15% 3.34% 7.42% 1.81%5 Pakistani

57.41% 57.35% 51.38% 55.22% 49.44%6 Bangladeshi

63.64% 63.63% 57.37% 61.27% 55.23%7 Chinese

54.01% 53.22% 44.91% 39.75% 33.14%8 Other

92.16% 91.11% 67.62% 86.94% 64.44%Total

1.71% 0.78% -1.35% 0.12% -1.98%

Impact of adjustments

Population change 1991-2001

Birmingham

Detail: Age: 91 categoriesSex: 2 categories Ethnic group: 10 (1991) and 16 (2001)


Districts

Wards

Output Areas


Districts

Wards

Output Areas


Districts

Wards

Allocation of extra non-response from ONS experimental statistics

Allocation of extra non-response using ONS imputation rates

Data summary and dissemination

Work in progress

Constructing population time series with an ethnic breakdown for sub-national areas in England and Wales, 1991-2001 Albert Sabater PhD student at CCSR.

Documents

ethnic group slide

categories ethnic group

ethnic breakdown

ewc ethnic groups

output areas step

undercount step

eds slide

small area population