Considering Causes in Forecasting for Ethical Decision-Making Cheryl Beeler University of Oklahoma 2009 Research Conference on Research Integrity Niagara.

Considering Causes Considering Causes in Forecasting for in Forecasting for Ethical Decision-Ethical Decision-

MakingMakingCheryl BeelerCheryl Beeler

University of OklahomaUniversity of Oklahoma2009 Research Conference 2009 Research Conference

on Research Integrityon Research IntegrityNiagara Falls, NYNiagara Falls, NY

May 17, 2009May 17, 2009

Ethical Decision-MakingEthical Decision-Making

►Complex, ill-defined problemsComplex, ill-defined problems►Require analysis and integration of Require analysis and integration of

informationinformation►Mumford et al. (2008) model of 5 key Mumford et al. (2008) model of 5 key

cognitive processes cognitive processes FramingFraming Emotional RegulationEmotional Regulation ForecastingForecasting Self-ReflectionSelf-Reflection SensemakingSensemaking

Purpose of StudyPurpose of Study

►Examine the role of forecasting in Examine the role of forecasting in ethical decision-makingethical decision-making

►Examine how key contextual variables Examine how key contextual variables influence the processinfluence the process

ForecastingForecasting►Using observations about the current Using observations about the current

situation to predict outcomes situation to predict outcomes (Pant & Starbuck, (Pant & Starbuck, 1990)1990)

►Critical given significant consequences for Critical given significant consequences for self and others self and others (Mumford, 2002)(Mumford, 2002)

► Identification and manipulation of causes Identification and manipulation of causes particularly important particularly important (Marcy & Mumford, 2006)(Marcy & Mumford, 2006)

Number of causes identifiedNumber of causes identified Critical causes identifiedCritical causes identified

Situational VariablesSituational Variables

►Decision-making occurs in contextDecision-making occurs in context

►Time PressureTime Pressure PresentPresent Not presentNot present

►Analytical MindsetAnalytical Mindset DeliberativeDeliberative ImplementationImplementation

Research QuestionsResearch Questions

► Is effective forecasting associated with Is effective forecasting associated with more ethical decisions? more ethical decisions?

►What role does the identification of What role does the identification of causes of the problem play in causes of the problem play in forecasting and ethical decision-forecasting and ethical decision-making?making?

►Do two common situational variables Do two common situational variables influence this this complex cognitive influence this this complex cognitive process?process? Time pressureTime pressure Analytic Mindset (implementation vs. Analytic Mindset (implementation vs.

deliberative)deliberative)

ProcedureProcedure

► SampleSample 96 undergraduate psychology students96 undergraduate psychology students

► Manipulation of situational variablesManipulation of situational variables Task completed under time pressure or notTask completed under time pressure or not Implementation or deliberative mindset Implementation or deliberative mindset

inducedinduced

► Covariate MeasuresCovariate Measures IntelligenceIntelligence PlanningPlanning Divergent ThinkingDivergent Thinking

Procedure► Ethical Problems

Complex, realistic ethical problems Mapped to taxonomy of research ethics problems

► Identify Causes List and describe the causes of the problem

► Forecast Outcomes Forecast the likely outcomes of this scenario

(What do you think will happen?)► Make Decision

Adapted from validated ethical decision-making measure (Mumford et al., 2006)

Eight potential responses to problem situation Choose 2 responses

ResultsResults► Forecast Quality Predicts Forecast Quality Predicts EthicalityEthicality

Note: *p < .05; **p < .01

R2 Δ R2

Block 1 .18**

Gender .24*

Intelligence (EAS) -.06

  Planning .27**  

Block 2 .20** .02

Time Pressure .14

Mindset -.02

Block 3 .23** .07**

Forecast Quality .28**

ResultsResults► Criticality of Causes Predicts Criticality of Causes Predicts Forecast QualityForecast Quality

Note: *p < .05; **p < .01

R2 Δ R2

Block 1 .09*

Gender -.06

Intelligence (EAS) .10

  Planning .11    

Block 2 .10 .01

Time Pressure -.01

Mindset .04

Block 3 .29** .19**

Number of Causes .04

  Criticality of Causes .45**    

ResultsResults► Criticality of Causes Predicts Criticality of Causes Predicts EthicalityEthicality

Note: *p < .05; **p < .01

R2 Δ R2

Block 1 .18**

Gender .20*

Intelligence (EAS) -.08

  Planning .24*    

Block 2 .20** .02

Time Pressure .06

Mindset .06

Block 3 .30** .10**

Number of Causes -.13

  Criticality of Causes .43**    

ConclusionsConclusions

►Better quality forecasting is associated Better quality forecasting is associated with better ethical decision-makingwith better ethical decision-making

► Identification of critical causes is Identification of critical causes is associated with better quality forecasting associated with better quality forecasting and better ethical decision-makingand better ethical decision-making

►Time pressure and mindset are not Time pressure and mindset are not related to forecasting or ethical decision-related to forecasting or ethical decision-makingmaking

ImplicationsImplications►Forecasting is critical for ethical Forecasting is critical for ethical

decision-makingdecision-making► Identification of critical causes is of Identification of critical causes is of

key importancekey importance►Time pressure may not hinder ethical Time pressure may not hinder ethical

decision-makingdecision-making►Training ImplicationsTraining Implications

Emphasize forecast outcomesEmphasize forecast outcomes Include instruction on identifying critical Include instruction on identifying critical

causescauses

AcknowledgmentsAcknowledgments

► FacultyFaculty Dr. Michael MumfordDr. Michael Mumford Dr. Lynn DevenportDr. Lynn Devenport

► Graduate StudentsGraduate Students Alison AntesAlison Antes Jared CaughronJared Caughron Laura MartinLaura Martin

Dr. Shane ConnellyDr. Shane Connelly Dr. Ryan BrownDr. Ryan Brown

Mike TamborskiMike Tamborski Chase ThielChase Thiel Xiaoqian WangXiaoqian Wang

Thank you to the National Institutes of Health and Office of Research Integrity for sponsoring this research.