Congressional Results 2012
Dec 16, 2015
Learning Objectives
• Analyze the theories of why people vote and apply them to the 2012 Election.
• Evaluate the strengths and weaknesses of how presidential and congressional elections are financed.
Goals of Congressperson
• The Primary Goal is to Get Elected
• The Next goal is to get re-elected(Mayhew, 1974)
Partisanship is Most Important
• The biggest factor in Congressional election
• Even in open seat elections
Incumbency
• The incumbent dominates the discourse
• The incumbent has the advantages
• It is the Incumbent’s seat to lose
Voluntary Retirements
• When candidates leave office, rather than run for re-election.
• Why people Retire?
Strategic Challengers can Alter This
• They run when national trends favor their party
• They have local advantages as well
• They also have the most to lose!
How Strategic Challengers Change Campaigns
• Attract Money
• Can turn National Issues into Local Ones
• Are Quality Challengers as Well
What is a Quality Challenger
• A person who has formerly/currently held elective office
• Name Recognition, Access to Money, a constituuency
Why no wave?
• We hated Congress, but no one specifically
• The economy still wasn’t great
• The negative campaign
• Obama’s Popularity (too close to 50%)
The Importance of Partisanship
• Republican Districts voted Republican, Democratic Districts voted Democratic
• Balanced districts split almost evenly
Republican Exposure
• The Republicans had more exposure
• Very Few Toss-up Seats
• Probably would have survived a wave.
The Democrats
• Actually Won the Nationwide Popular Vote
• Did not Take Back the House– Redistricting– Wasted Votes
Redistricting
• The process of redrawing districts within a state
• State legislatures control the battle
• Very Political
The Role of Redistricting
• A Result of the 2002 election
• GOP Legislatures controlled 202 seats
• Democratic Legislatures controlled 47 seats
Republicans Have A Structural Advantage
• Democrats are more compacted
• Democratic areas are overwhelmingly democratic
• Democrats are “safer”
Regional Voting
Democrats
• New England
• California
• West Coast
Republicans
• South
• Upper Midwest
The 2014 Election
• Not Many Toss-up Seats
• Difficult to Reassemble Presidential Coalition
• 6 year Itch
The Dynamics
• The More Incumbents you have, the more you have to Defend
– 23 Democratic Seats
– 10 Republican Seats
• Democrats have a 53-47 lead
The Results
Democrats Republicans Incumbent Winners 16 5 (71%) Challenger Wins 1 (MA) 0 Open Seats Defended 6 of 7 2 of 4 Open Seats Captured 2 (IN, ME) 1 (Neb)
Missouri
• Clair McCaskill is very vulnerable
• Cross-over spending in the primary
• Todd Akin loses by 15%
Massachusetts
• Elizabeth Warren vs. Scott Brown
• Warren outraises Brown by 14 million
• Brown is the only incumbent to lose
Looking ahead to 2014
• The Republicans expected to gain…they didn’t
• Democrats have More exposure
• 7 seats are from states where Obama won