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CONFIDENTIAL DOLLAR TREE, INC. V ALUE L INE SELECT TM VALUE LINE PUBLISHING, INC. 220 EAST 42ND STREET NEW YORK NY 10017-5891 TELEPHONE: 212-907-1500 www.valueline.com JULY 2010
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CONFIDENTIAL - Value Line...Dollar Tree, Inc., a leading operator of discount variety stores nationwide, is our Select stock of the month. Its stores oper-ate under the names of Dollar

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Page 1: CONFIDENTIAL - Value Line...Dollar Tree, Inc., a leading operator of discount variety stores nationwide, is our Select stock of the month. Its stores oper-ate under the names of Dollar

CO

NF

IDE

NT

IAL

DOLLAR TREE, INC.

VALUE LINESELEC TTM

VALUE LINE PUBLISHING, INC .220 EAST 42ND STREET

NEW YORK NY 10017-5891TELEPHONE: 212-907-1500

www.va lue l i ne . com

JULY 2010

Page 2: CONFIDENTIAL - Value Line...Dollar Tree, Inc., a leading operator of discount variety stores nationwide, is our Select stock of the month. Its stores oper-ate under the names of Dollar
Page 3: CONFIDENTIAL - Value Line...Dollar Tree, Inc., a leading operator of discount variety stores nationwide, is our Select stock of the month. Its stores oper-ate under the names of Dollar

J U L Y 2 0 1 0 V A L U E L I N E S E L E C T T M 3

SE

LE

CT

TM

VALU

E L

INE

TIMELINESS(A): 1

TECHNICAL(B): 3

SAFETY(C): 2

RECENT PRICE: $43.43

2013-2015 Price Forecast:$70-$95

Published by VALUE LINE PUBLISHING, INC. 220 East 42nd Street, New York, NY 10017-5891.For the confidential use of subscribers. Reprint by written permission only.Copyright © 2010 by Value Line Publishing, Inc. ® Reg. TM—Value Line, Inc.

Factual material is obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but the publisher is notresponsible for any errors or omissions contained herein. © 2010 Value Line Publishing, Inc. RIGHTSOF REPRODUCTION AND DISTRIBUTION ARE RESERVED TO THE PUBLISHER. No part of thispublication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form by any means,electronic, mechanical, photocopying or otherwise, without first obtaining the written permission ofthe copyright owner. Officers, directors, employees and affiliates of Value Line, Inc. (“VLI”), and ValueLine’s investment-management affiliate, EULAV Asset Management, LLC (“EULAV”), a wholly-ownedsubsidiary of Value Line, Inc., the parent company of Value Line Publishing, Inc. (“VLPI”), may holdstocks that are reviewed or recommended in this publication.

400

2

20

40

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

4

6

10

60

Price Range12x Cash Flow (actual)12x Cash Flow (estimate)Recent PriceTarget Price RangeRelative Price Strength

200

100

Footnotes are on Page 18

DOLLAR TREE, INC.

INDUSTRY: Retail Store

EXCHANGE: NASDAQ

TICKER SYMBOL: DLTR

OPTIONS: Yes

FINANCIAL STRENGTH: A+

ACTUAL E.P.S. FY ’09: $2.37

ESTIMATED E.P.S. FY ’10: $3.00

ESTIMATED E.P.S. FY ’11: $3.35

CURRENT P/E RATIO: 14.5

RELATIVE P/E: 0.92

DIVIDEND YIELD: NIL

SHARES OUTSTANDING: 127 million

INSIDER HOLDINGS: 3.4%

MARKET CAP: $5.5 billion (Mid-Cap)

ADDRESS: 500 Volvo Parkway

Chesapeake, VA 23320

TELEPHONE: (757) 321-5000

WEB SITE: www.dollartree.com

REPORT AS OF: July 23, 2010

High: 21.4 30.7 29.4 34.8Low: 15.7 16.8 13.8 21.9

Page 4: CONFIDENTIAL - Value Line...Dollar Tree, Inc., a leading operator of discount variety stores nationwide, is our Select stock of the month. Its stores oper-ate under the names of Dollar

© 2010, Value Line Publishing, Inc. All rights reserved. Factual material is obtained from sources believed to be reliable and is provided withoutwarranties of any kind. THE PUBLISHER IS NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR ANY ERRORS OR OMISSIONS HEREIN. This publication is strictly forsubscriber's own, non-commercial, internal use. No part of it may be reproduced, stored or transmitted in any printed, electronic or other form,or used for generating or marketing any printed or electronic publication, service or product.

4 V A L U E L I N E S E L E C T T M J U L Y 2 0 1 0

DOLLAR TREE, INC.

Dollar Tree, Inc., a leading operator of discount variety storesnationwide, is our Select stock of the month. Its stores oper-ate under the names of Dollar Tree, Deal$, and Dollar Bills.

While all of the stores sell merchandise for $1 or less, Deal$also sells items at prices up to about $5. The stores are typical-ly located in malls and strip shopping centers anchored bymass merchandisers, in a variety of market types, includingmetropolitan areas, mid-sized cities, and small towns.

Dollar Tree offers a broad selection of everyday basic prod-ucts, including consumable household merchandise, frozenand refrigerated food, and variety goods. Seasonal items arealso featured, and about 35% of sales are from private-labelitems that cannot be purchased elsewhere.

The company markets its wares primarily to lower- and mid-dle-income customers, although others may be “trading down”during these tough economic times.

Founded in 1986, the Fortune 500 company is headquarteredin Chesapeake, Virginia, and operates more than 3,800 storesin the 48 lower states.

Dollar Treeoperates more

than 3,800discount

variety stores

Page 5: CONFIDENTIAL - Value Line...Dollar Tree, Inc., a leading operator of discount variety stores nationwide, is our Select stock of the month. Its stores oper-ate under the names of Dollar

J U L Y 2 0 1 0 V A L U E L I N E S E L E C T T M 5

© 2010, Value Line Publishing, Inc. All rights reserved. Factual material is obtained from sources believed to be reliable and is provided withoutwarranties of any kind. THE PUBLISHER IS NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR ANY ERRORS OR OMISSIONS HEREIN. This publication is strictly forsubscriber's own, non-commercial, internal use. No part of it may be reproduced, stored or transmitted in any printed, electronic or other form,or used for generating or marketing any printed or electronic publication, service or product.

Growth Opportunities

Selling everyday items at very low prices in neighborhood lo-cations presents significant earnings potential. About half ofthe company’s revenues are from low-cost, nondiscretionaryitems, which enabled sales and share net to consistently ad-vance even during the recent tough economic times.

The low-cyclicality nature of operations is attractive duringthese uncertain times, in our view. Conversely, the companyis also well-positioned for an economic rebound, as non-con-sumable items account for about 52% of sales, significantlyhigher than at its competitors.

Management intends to almost double the number of stores,over time, including the opening of Deal$ stores (which offermerchandise for $5 or less). Too, we expect that 75 of the3,800 stores will be remodeled in 2010, and that 235 morewill get freezers and coolers this year. In all, about 40% of thestores will soon have coolers, which we expect will add 4%-5% in sales per store.

Dollar Tree Direct, an e-commerce business, was launched in2009. Dollar Tree is the only major dollar store that currentlysells bulk items over the Internet.

Further, the balance sheet is strong, with over $6 a share incash. Good cash flow should enable the company to continueto expand via store openings and also support share net throughrecently authorized additional share buybacks.

The shares areespeciallyattractive

during theseuncertain times

Page 6: CONFIDENTIAL - Value Line...Dollar Tree, Inc., a leading operator of discount variety stores nationwide, is our Select stock of the month. Its stores oper-ate under the names of Dollar

© 2010, Value Line Publishing, Inc. All rights reserved. Factual material is obtained from sources believed to be reliable and is provided withoutwarranties of any kind. THE PUBLISHER IS NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR ANY ERRORS OR OMISSIONS HEREIN. This publication is strictly forsubscriber's own, non-commercial, internal use. No part of it may be reproduced, stored or transmitted in any printed, electronic or other form,or used for generating or marketing any printed or electronic publication, service or product.

6 V A L U E L I N E S E L E C T T M J U L Y 2 0 1 0

What About The Stock?

The most recent quarter’s comparable store sales advanced6.5% year over year, indicating that consumers continue topurchase Dollar Tree’s value items even as the economy showsnascent signs of strengthening. We believe that financial re-sults will likely remain solid and that the share price will per-form relatively well in the coming quarters.

The good value proposition offered by Dollar Tree storesand the accompanying low cyclicality of operations will like-ly support the shares during this time of pronounced eco-nomic and market uncertainty. Too, multiyear operatingresults have been solid, as evidenced by the high Safety andEarnings Predictability scores, as well as the A+ FinancialStrength ranking.

Finally, we anticipate that the shares will outperform the broad-er market over the coming six- to 12-month period, as indi-cated by the Timeliness rank of 1 (Highest).

Treasure Hunting

The fixed-pricing strategy, where the majority of the merchan-dise sells for exactly $1, leads to a unique “treasure hunt” shop-ping experience. Although the price point is set, the itemschange over time, making the shopping experience enjoyable,interesting, and somewhat unpredictable.

The inexpensive items are obtained from a variety of sources,often providing exceptional value to the customer. About 40%

The shares boasta Timeliness

rank of 1(Highest)

Page 7: CONFIDENTIAL - Value Line...Dollar Tree, Inc., a leading operator of discount variety stores nationwide, is our Select stock of the month. Its stores oper-ate under the names of Dollar

J U L Y 2 0 1 0 V A L U E L I N E S E L E C T T M 7

© 2010, Value Line Publishing, Inc. All rights reserved. Factual material is obtained from sources believed to be reliable and is provided withoutwarranties of any kind. THE PUBLISHER IS NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR ANY ERRORS OR OMISSIONS HEREIN. This publication is strictly forsubscriber's own, non-commercial, internal use. No part of it may be reproduced, stored or transmitted in any printed, electronic or other form,or used for generating or marketing any printed or electronic publication, service or product.

of the wares are imported, and the remaining 60% are ob-tained through closeouts or promotions. Some of the itemsfeature customized packaging and/or smaller-than-usual sizesor quantities to meet the $1 price.

Dollar Tree offers basic consumables (household items andthe like) that bring customers back year-round. It also focuseson niche merchandise that differentiates it from its competi-tors, which include Dollar General, Family Dollar, and Wal-Mart. For example, the “Teachers Corner” carries supplies andmaterials for teachers. Other examples include budget wed-ding supplies and favors, and seasonal/party items for birth-days, graduations, and traditional holidays.

Store managers have significant discretion over which itemsto place in stock, as well as the general organization of thestores. This discretion allows local management the ability tocustomize operations to appeal to local tastes and preferences.Too, it allows the supervisors to adapt to the ever-changingproduct mix, which varies somewhat according to the avail-ability of closeout items and the like.

Value Counts

Dollar Tree imports goods from around the world, includingChina, to keep its costs low. It also sells brand-name items (Crest,Glad) and miscellaneous overstocked items. Results have re-cently benefited from consumers trading down to lower-priced,necessary household items, which now include healthcare prod-ucts, cleaning supplies, food, and refrigerated goods.

Dollar Treeoffers basic

consumablesthat bring

customers backyear-round

Page 8: CONFIDENTIAL - Value Line...Dollar Tree, Inc., a leading operator of discount variety stores nationwide, is our Select stock of the month. Its stores oper-ate under the names of Dollar

© 2010, Value Line Publishing, Inc. All rights reserved. Factual material is obtained from sources believed to be reliable and is provided withoutwarranties of any kind. THE PUBLISHER IS NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR ANY ERRORS OR OMISSIONS HEREIN. This publication is strictly forsubscriber's own, non-commercial, internal use. No part of it may be reproduced, stored or transmitted in any printed, electronic or other form,or used for generating or marketing any printed or electronic publication, service or product.

8 V A L U E L I N E S E L E C T T M J U L Y 2 0 1 0

The cost of imported products has declined over the past yearor so due to sluggish worldwide economic conditions, as wellas the absence of inflation. In general, the company has passedthese lower costs onto its customers, but recently has beenable to lower its prices even as it improved profit margins.

We expect that Dollar Tree will continue to obtain goods atvery competitive costs, in part because it is the largest buyer ofits type of product in Asia, giving it clout with manufacturers.Too, it frequently goes direct to the manufacturers rather thanusing a middleman, allowing it to get the lowest cost. Theproducts are low-tech and not labor intensive to produce, sothey can be sourced from facilities in relatively undevelopedparts of China, where costs remain low.

Operations

Dollar Tree has been investing more aggressively in its infra-structure for several years. Its technology investments includean inventory management system that has improved supplychain efficiency and merchandise flow, increased inventoryturnover, and lowered distribution and store operating costs.

A replenishment system automatically reorders key items, basedon actual store level sales and inventory. In fact, at the end of2009, the company had approximately 2,200 basic, everydayitems on automatic replenishment. In short, point-of-sale dataallows management to track sales and inventory, so that it canmore efficiently replenish items as they are needed.

Too, the company recently opened its ninth distribution

The companysells verylow cost,

competitivelypriced items

Efficientoperations are

critical

Page 9: CONFIDENTIAL - Value Line...Dollar Tree, Inc., a leading operator of discount variety stores nationwide, is our Select stock of the month. Its stores oper-ate under the names of Dollar

J U L Y 2 0 1 0 V A L U E L I N E S E L E C T T M 9

© 2010, Value Line Publishing, Inc. All rights reserved. Factual material is obtained from sources believed to be reliable and is provided withoutwarranties of any kind. THE PUBLISHER IS NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR ANY ERRORS OR OMISSIONS HEREIN. This publication is strictly forsubscriber's own, non-commercial, internal use. No part of it may be reproduced, stored or transmitted in any printed, electronic or other form,or used for generating or marketing any printed or electronic publication, service or product.

center (it leases a 10th). A solid logistics infrastructure is crit-ical, as it facilitates the efficient transfer of goods to the vari-ous stores, which are located throughout the country

The Competition

Almost 52% of Dollar Tree’s sales are from nonconsumables,compared to about 35% at Family Dollar, and 29% at DollarGeneral. This should support results, relatively, when the econ-omy improves.

Customers frequently shop at the competition to compareselection, price, and value. That said, Dollar Tree’s very goodand established sourcing relationships (it obtains goods froma wide variety of vendors located around the world) shouldenable it to remain competitive.

Still, there is brand overlap at the various discount stores, andcustomers will likely find Glad, Crest, Colgate, and Dove ateach of the stores. Close-out and private-label offerings pro-vide the primary means of product differentiation.

Earnings And Projections

Impressively, sales and earnings have advanced even duringthe recent tough times. Fiscal first-quarter results (the quarterended April 30th) exceeded analyst expectations and manage-ment guidance, and were driven by impressive comparable-store sales, which advanced 6.5% versus the year-earlier total,

Very goodsourcingenhances

Dollar Tree’scompetitive

position

Page 10: CONFIDENTIAL - Value Line...Dollar Tree, Inc., a leading operator of discount variety stores nationwide, is our Select stock of the month. Its stores oper-ate under the names of Dollar

© 2010, Value Line Publishing, Inc. All rights reserved. Factual material is obtained from sources believed to be reliable and is provided withoutwarranties of any kind. THE PUBLISHER IS NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR ANY ERRORS OR OMISSIONS HEREIN. This publication is strictly forsubscriber's own, non-commercial, internal use. No part of it may be reproduced, stored or transmitted in any printed, electronic or other form,or used for generating or marketing any printed or electronic publication, service or product.

1 0 V A L U E L I N E S E L E C T T M J U L Y 2 0 1 0

and by new store openings. Total sales, which advanced 12.6%,were strong in all parts of the country, especially on the WestCoast. Sales were up nicely across all product categories, in-cluding discretionary and nondiscretionary items. Sales ofhealthcare, food, party goods, general merchandise, and ba-sic-needs products all rose. Too, profit margins increased dueto lower ocean freight rates and other sourcing costs.

Traffic (the number of customers) rose 4% and the averageticket advanced 2.4%, possibly due to newer customers whohave tested a store for quality and value for the past quarter ortwo through small purchases, and who are now returning tomake larger buys.

The good news, coupled with the planned expansion of theDeal$ store format (management intends to open 25 more ofthe $5 per-item stores in 2010), and the good to-date recep-tion of the new online business, prompted management toraise its earnings guidance for the full fiscal year to $4.29-$4.50, from $3.96-$ 4.23. Too, it raised the July-period esti-mate to $0.77-$0.85, up about $0.05 a share.

Risks

Because most of Dollar Tree’s merchandise sells for exactly $1,an inflationary environment could be troublesome, if the com-pany is unable to pass along the cost increases to its customerswithout changing product size, quality, or suppliers. In short,the fixed-pricing strategy could limit profits in an inflationaryenvironment. That said, we do not expect inflation to increasemeaningfully in the next year or two.

Recent goodresults prompted

management toraise earnings

guidance

Page 11: CONFIDENTIAL - Value Line...Dollar Tree, Inc., a leading operator of discount variety stores nationwide, is our Select stock of the month. Its stores oper-ate under the names of Dollar

J U L Y 2 0 1 0 V A L U E L I N E S E L E C T T M 1 1

© 2010, Value Line Publishing, Inc. All rights reserved. Factual material is obtained from sources believed to be reliable and is provided withoutwarranties of any kind. THE PUBLISHER IS NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR ANY ERRORS OR OMISSIONS HEREIN. This publication is strictly forsubscriber's own, non-commercial, internal use. No part of it may be reproduced, stored or transmitted in any printed, electronic or other form,or used for generating or marketing any printed or electronic publication, service or product.

Too, because many of the goods are imported from around theworld, higher fuel and freight costs could hurt results. Thatsaid, the company negotiates freight costs well in advance (itnegotiated 2011’s freight costs in May), and hedges some of itsfuel costs. In short, both risks appear to be well-managed.

About 14% of the total stores are based in California and Flor-ida, which were especially hard hit by the recent recession.However, the anniversary of the poor results should enablecomparable store sales to easily exceed the year-earlier total, aphenomenon that, on average, tends to support share prices.

Finally, a significant slowdown in the U.S. economy couldhurt results. Yet, the low-cost nature of the operation shouldgive the stores and the shares relative appeal, as evidenced byrecent share-price action.

Summary

Dollar Tree, Inc. operates a nationwide chain of discount va-riety stores under the names of Dollar Tree, Deal$, and DollarBills. While all of the stores sell merchandise for $1 or less,Deal$ also sells items at prices up to $5. The stores are typical-ly located in malls or strip shopping centers anchored by massmerchandisers, in a variety of market types, including metro-politan areas, mid-sized cities, and small towns.

The retailer offers a broad selection of low-cost everyday basicproducts, including consumable household merchandise, fro-zen and refrigerated food products, and variety merchandise.Seasonal items are also featured, and about 35% of sales are

Page 12: CONFIDENTIAL - Value Line...Dollar Tree, Inc., a leading operator of discount variety stores nationwide, is our Select stock of the month. Its stores oper-ate under the names of Dollar

© 2010, Value Line Publishing, Inc. All rights reserved. Factual material is obtained from sources believed to be reliable and is provided withoutwarranties of any kind. THE PUBLISHER IS NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR ANY ERRORS OR OMISSIONS HEREIN. This publication is strictly forsubscriber's own, non-commercial, internal use. No part of it may be reproduced, stored or transmitted in any printed, electronic or other form,or used for generating or marketing any printed or electronic publication, service or product.

1 2 V A L U E L I N E S E L E C T T M J U L Y 2 0 1 0

private label. The company markets its wares primarily to low-er- and middle-income customers, although others may be“trading down” during these tough economic times.

Management intends to almost double the number of stores,over time, including the opening of additional Deal$ stores,which offer merchandise for up to $5. Other growth-focusedinitiatives include the remodeling of existing stores, and theexpansion of an online offering known as Dollar Tree Direct.

Impressively, multiyear operating results have been both steadyand solid, as evidenced by the consistently advancing top lineand steady profit margins, which have enabled share net torise each year since 1994. Too, Dollar Tree features a perfectEarnings Predictability score, as well as high Safety and Fi-nancial Strength rankings.

Comparable-store sales for the most recent quarter advanced6.5% year over year, indicating that consumers continue topurchase Dollar Tree’s low-cost (and hence high-value) itemseven as the economy shows nascent (though uneven) signs ofstrength. We believe that financial results will likely remainsolid and that the share price will perform well, on a relativebasis, in the coming quarters.

About half of the company’s revenues are from low-cost, non-discretionary items, which enabled sales and share net to ad-vance even during the recent tough economic times. The low-cyclicality nature of Dollar Tree’s operations is attractive duringthese uncertain economic times, in our view

The low cyclicality of operations, coupled with the good val-ue proposition of its low-cost selections, will likely provide a

We believethe shares are

most appropriatefor investorswho desire a

defensiveaddition to theirequity portfolio

Page 13: CONFIDENTIAL - Value Line...Dollar Tree, Inc., a leading operator of discount variety stores nationwide, is our Select stock of the month. Its stores oper-ate under the names of Dollar

J U L Y 2 0 1 0 V A L U E L I N E S E L E C T T M 1 3

© 2010, Value Line Publishing, Inc. All rights reserved. Factual material is obtained from sources believed to be reliable and is provided withoutwarranties of any kind. THE PUBLISHER IS NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR ANY ERRORS OR OMISSIONS HEREIN. This publication is strictly forsubscriber's own, non-commercial, internal use. No part of it may be reproduced, stored or transmitted in any printed, electronic or other form,or used for generating or marketing any printed or electronic publication, service or product.

measure of support to the shares during this period of pro-longed economic and market uncertainty.

We believe that the shares are most appropriate for investorswho desire a defensive addition to the equity portion of theirportfolio. While the shares may not advance as quickly as theoverall stock market if the economy shows significant strength,neither will they decline as much if the economy slows stillfurther. In fact, with a Beta coefficient of 0.60, the shares havedone well on a relative basis throughout the global slowdownand accompanying equity market pullback.

Finally, we anticipate that the shares will outperform the broad-er market over the coming six- to 12-month period, as indi-cated by the Timeliness rank of 1 (Highest).

Page 14: CONFIDENTIAL - Value Line...Dollar Tree, Inc., a leading operator of discount variety stores nationwide, is our Select stock of the month. Its stores oper-ate under the names of Dollar

© 2010, Value Line Publishing, Inc. All rights reserved. Factual material is obtained from sources believed to be reliable and is provided withoutwarranties of any kind. THE PUBLISHER IS NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR ANY ERRORS OR OMISSIONS HEREIN. This publication is strictly forsubscriber's own, non-commercial, internal use. No part of it may be reproduced, stored or transmitted in any printed, electronic or other form,or used for generating or marketing any printed or electronic publication, service or product.

1 4 V A L U E L I N E S E L E C T T M J U L Y 2 0 1 0

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS

All numbers, except percentages and per-share data, are in millions. Numbers in bold italics areValue Line estimates; all estimates except percentages and per-share figures are rounded to thenearest whole number. Footnotes are on page 18.

INCOME STATEMENT DATA

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Net Sales 5231.2 5770 6250 6700 7075 7650

Cost of Goods 3216.6 3540 3837 4100 4325 4670

Gross Profit 2014.6 2230 2413 2600 2750 2980

Operating Expenses 1344.0 1480 1600 1715 1800 1940

Operating Income 671 750 813 885 950 1040

Depreciation 157.8 155 160 165 170 175

Interest Expense 7.1 5 5 6 6 6

Non-operating Income 1.9 14 15 20 20 20

Pre-tax Income 507.6 604 663 734 794 879

Income Taxes 187.1 223 245 272 294 325

Effective Tax Rate 36.9% 37.0% 37.0% 37.0% 37.0% 37.0%

Minority Interest 0.0 0 0 0 0 0

Equity Income 0.0 0 0 0 0 0

Preferred Dividends 0.0 0 0 0 0 0

Net Income 320.5 381 417 462 500 554

Diluted Shares 131.3 127 125 123 121 118

Earnings per Share $2.37 $3.00 $3.35 $3.75 $4.15 $4.70

PERCENTAGE ANALYSIS

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Gross Margin 38.5% 38.6% 38.6% 38.8% 38.9% 39.0%

Operating Margin 12.8% 13.0% 13.0% 13.2% 13.4% 13.6%

Pretax Margin 9.7% 10.5% 10.6% 11.0% 11.2% 11.5%

Net Margin 6.1% 6.6% 6.7% 6.9% 7.1% 7.2%

Page 15: CONFIDENTIAL - Value Line...Dollar Tree, Inc., a leading operator of discount variety stores nationwide, is our Select stock of the month. Its stores oper-ate under the names of Dollar

J U L Y 2 0 1 0 V A L U E L I N E S E L E C T T M 1 5

© 2010, Value Line Publishing, Inc. All rights reserved. Factual material is obtained from sources believed to be reliable and is provided withoutwarranties of any kind. THE PUBLISHER IS NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR ANY ERRORS OR OMISSIONS HEREIN. This publication is strictly forsubscriber's own, non-commercial, internal use. No part of it may be reproduced, stored or transmitted in any printed, electronic or other form,or used for generating or marketing any printed or electronic publication, service or product.

All numbers, except percentages and per-share data, are in millions. Numbers in bold italics areValue Line estimates; all estimates except percentages and per-share figures are rounded to thenearest whole number. Footnotes are on page 18.

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS

AVG. ANNUAL RATES OF GROWTH(2009 to 2014)

Net Sales 8.0%

Gross Profit 8.2%

Operating Income 9.0%

Earnings per share 14.7%

FLOW OF FUNDS DATA

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Cash Flow 478.3 536 577 627 670 729

Debt Financing 0.0 0 25 0 25 0

Pfd Equity Financing 0.0 0 0 0 0 0

Com. Equity Financing 25.9 20 20 20 25 25

Other 65.8 0 0 0 0 0

Total Funds In 570.0 556 622 647 720 754

Capital Spending 164.8 175 200 225 250 275

Other Investments 47.7 50 75 125 175 225

Dividends Paid 0.0 0 0 0 0 0

Debt Retired 0.4 0 0 0 0 0

Pfd Equity Retired 0.0 0 0 0 0 0

Com. Equity Retired 190.7 175 150 150 150 170

Total Funds Out 403.6 400 425 500 575 670

Yearend Working Cap’l 829.7 986 1183 1330 1475 1558

Page 16: CONFIDENTIAL - Value Line...Dollar Tree, Inc., a leading operator of discount variety stores nationwide, is our Select stock of the month. Its stores oper-ate under the names of Dollar

© 2010, Value Line Publishing, Inc. All rights reserved. Factual material is obtained from sources believed to be reliable and is provided withoutwarranties of any kind. THE PUBLISHER IS NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR ANY ERRORS OR OMISSIONS HEREIN. This publication is strictly forsubscriber's own, non-commercial, internal use. No part of it may be reproduced, stored or transmitted in any printed, electronic or other form,or used for generating or marketing any printed or electronic publication, service or product.

1 6 V A L U E L I N E S E L E C T T M J U L Y 2 0 1 0

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS

All numbers, except percentages and per-share data, are in millions. Numbers in bold italics areValue Line estimates; all estimates except percentages and per-share figures are rounded to thenearest whole number. Footnotes are on page 18.

HISTORICAL BALANCE SHEET DATA

2007 2008 2009

Cash & Equivalents 81.1 364.4 599.4Receivables 0.0 0.0 0.0Inventories 641.2 675.8 679.8Other 66.5 33.0 26.4

Total Current Assets 788.8 1073.2 1305.6

Net Property, Plant 743.6 710.3 714.3

Intangible Assets 147.8 133.3 133.3Other 107.5 118.9 136.5

Total Assets 1787.7 2035.7 2289.7Payables 200.4 192.9 219.9Debt Due 18.5 17.6 17.5Taxes Payable 43.4 46.9 48.6Other 143.6 152.5 189.9

Total Current Liabilities 405.9 409.9 475.9Long Term Debt 250.0 250.0 250.0Other Liabilities 133.4 122.6 134.6Stockholders Equity 998.4 1253.2 1429.2

Total 1787.7 2035.7 2289.7

CAPITALIZATION & RETURNS ON CAPITAL

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Long Term Debt 250 250 275 275 300 300

Stockholders Equity 1429 1655 1943 2274 2649 3058

Return on Total Cap’l 19.3% 20.0% 18.8% 18.1% 17.0% 16.5%

Return on Equity 22.4% 23.0% 21.5% 20.3% 18.9% 18.1%

Page 17: CONFIDENTIAL - Value Line...Dollar Tree, Inc., a leading operator of discount variety stores nationwide, is our Select stock of the month. Its stores oper-ate under the names of Dollar

J U L Y 2 0 1 0 V A L U E L I N E S E L E C T T M 1 7

© 2010, Value Line Publishing, Inc. All rights reserved. Factual material is obtained from sources believed to be reliable and is provided withoutwarranties of any kind. THE PUBLISHER IS NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR ANY ERRORS OR OMISSIONS HEREIN. This publication is strictly forsubscriber's own, non-commercial, internal use. No part of it may be reproduced, stored or transmitted in any printed, electronic or other form,or used for generating or marketing any printed or electronic publication, service or product.

All numbers, except percentages and per-share data, are in millions. Numbers in bold italics areValue Line estimates; all estimates except percentages and per-share figures are rounded to thenearest whole number. Footnotes are on page 18.

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS

QUARTERLY NET SALES

April July October January Year

2007 975.0 971.2 997.8 1298.6 4242.62008 1051.3 1093.1 1114.0 1386.5 4644.92009 1201.1 1222.8 1248.7 1558.6 5231.22010 1352.6 1353.0 1365.0 1699.4 5770.02011 1455.0 1465.0 1490.0 1840.0 6250.0

QUARTERLY NET SALES GROWTH

April July October January Year

2008 7.8% 12.6% 11.6% 6.8% 9.5%2009 14.2% 11.9% 12.1% 12.4% 12.6%2010 12.6% 10.6% 9.3% 9.0% 10.3%2011 7.6% 8.3% 9.2% 8.3% 8.3%

QUARTERLY EPS (D)

April July October January Year

2007 0.25 0.22 0.25 0.69 1.392008 0.32 0.28 0.31 0.77 1.692009 0.44 0.42 0.51 1.01 2.372010 0.61 0.55 0.61 1.23 3.002011 0.70 0.62 0.68 1.35 3.35

QUARTERLY EPS GROWTH (D)

April July October January Year

2008 28.0% 27.3% 24.0% 11.6% 21.6%2009 37.5% 50.0% 64.5% 31.2% 40.2%2010 38.6% 31.0% 19.6% 21.8% 26.6%2011 14.8% 12.7% 11.5% 9.8% 11.7%

QUARTERLY DIVIDENDS PAIDApril July October January Year

2007200820092010

NO CASH DIVIDENDS BEING PAID

Page 18: CONFIDENTIAL - Value Line...Dollar Tree, Inc., a leading operator of discount variety stores nationwide, is our Select stock of the month. Its stores oper-ate under the names of Dollar

© 2010, Value Line Publishing, Inc. All rights reserved. Factual material is obtained from sources believed to be reliable and is provided withoutwarranties of any kind. THE PUBLISHER IS NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR ANY ERRORS OR OMISSIONS HEREIN. This publication is strictly forsubscriber's own, non-commercial, internal use. No part of it may be reproduced, stored or transmitted in any printed, electronic or other form,or used for generating or marketing any printed or electronic publication, service or product.

1 8 V A L U E L I N E S E L E C T T M J U L Y 2 0 1 0

Footnotes to the Dollar Tree, Inc. Report

(A) The Timeliness Rank is Value Line’s assessment of a stock’s probable relative marketperformance in the 6-12 months ahead. It is computer generated, and uses inputitems including the company’s multi-year price and earnings history, recent price andearnings momentum, and earnings surprises. All data are known and actual. Stocksranked 1 (Highest) and 2 (Above Average) are deemed likely to outpace the year-ahead market.

(B) The Technical Rank is Value Line’s assessment of a stock’s expected stock price perfor-mance relative to the overall market in the next three to six months, based on ananalysis of the stock’s relative price performance during the prior 52 weeks. Earningsare not a factor in the Technical Rank. Instead, it is purely a function of relativeprice action and is primarily a predictor of relative short-term price movements.

(C) The Safety Rank is a measure of potential risk associated with individual commonstocks. It is computed by averaging two other Value Line indexes—the Price StabilityIndex and the Financial Strength Rating. Safety Ranks range from 1 (Highest) to 5(Lowest). Conservative investors may wish to purchase equities ranked 1 (Highest)or 2 (Above Average) for Safety.

(D) Diluted earnings. Next earnings report due late August.

Page 19: CONFIDENTIAL - Value Line...Dollar Tree, Inc., a leading operator of discount variety stores nationwide, is our Select stock of the month. Its stores oper-ate under the names of Dollar

M A Y 1 8 , 2 0 1 2 D O L L A R T R E E , I N C . 1

© 2012, Value Line Publishing LLC. All rights reserved. Factual material is obtained from sources believed to be reliable and is providedwithout warranties of any kind. THE PUBLISHER IS NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR ANY ERRORS OR OMISSIONS HEREIN. This publica-tion is str ictly for subscriber's own, non-commercial, internal use. No part of it may be reproduced, resold, stored or transmitted in anyprinted, electronic or other form, or used for generating or marketing any printed or electronic publication, service or product.

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* Each Supplementary Report is a follow-up to the original recommendation and isnot necessarily sufficient by itself to form the basis for an investment decision. Theoriginal recommendation can be accessed by going to www.valueline.com.

DOLLAR TREE, INC.

Very Good Results

Dollar Tree, a leading operator of discount variety storesnationwide (NASDAQ: DLTR), has reported very good first-quarter results.

April-period sales advanced about 11.5%, to $1.72 billion; sharenet of $1.00 compared well to $0.82; and same-store sales advanced5.6% versus the year-earlier figure, respectively. The very good in-crease in same-store sales was driven by better traffic (more customervisits) for the second consecutive quarter. Finally, operating marginsposted a new first-quarter record, due to good cost controls.

Meanwhile, management issued what appears to be somewhat con-servative guidance, as it did last quarter. Specifically, although itraised its full-year share net expectation from $4.65-$4.90, to$4.74-$4.94, it also provided tepid guidance for the current in-terim. The shares pulled back modestly on the news, as they didlast quarter.

(CONTINUED ON NEXT PAGE)

SUPPLEMENTARY REPORT*TIMELINESS: 3

SAFETY: 1

TECHNICAL: 4

RECENT PRICE: 96

3- TO 5-YEAR PRICEFORECAST: 130-160

Page 20: CONFIDENTIAL - Value Line...Dollar Tree, Inc., a leading operator of discount variety stores nationwide, is our Select stock of the month. Its stores oper-ate under the names of Dollar

M A Y 1 8 , 2 0 1 2 D O L L A R T R E E , I N C . 2

© 2012, Value Line Publishing LLC. All rights reserved. Factual material is obtained from sources believed to be reliable and is providedwithout warranties of any kind. THE PUBLISHER IS NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR ANY ERRORS OR OMISSIONS HEREIN. This publica-tion is strictly for subscriber's own, non-commercial, internal use. No part of it may be reproduced, resold, stored or transmitted in anyprinted, electronic or other form, or used for generating or marketing any printed or electronic publication, service or product.

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These Shares Have More Than Doubled

The challenging economic backdrop and continuing demographicshift provides a favorable backdrop for the shares, in our opinion.Consumers are seeking value during the still-tough times, and theexpanding 65 and older age bracket suggests continued demandfor Dollar Tree’s low-price, good-value items.

Although the shares declined modestly after the earnings were reported,likely in response to management’s potentially conservative guidance,the fundamentals of the business appear intact. Sales continue to bebolstered by customers attracted to the exceptional value and trea-sure-hunting aspects of shopping at Dollar Tree, and managementis investing for the future. Specifically, it is opening more stores,augmenting the store formats, and expanding into Canada.

Still, although the shares have advanced nicely since our last up-date, the recent modest price pullback suggests that some investorsare deciding to book profits, perhaps because the PE (Price toEarnings) ratio is now relatively high. With the shares near their all-time high price, we are reiterating our HOLD rating.

Meanwhile, subscribers that have followed our advice have earned abouta 120% return since we recommended the shares in July, 2010.

Page 21: CONFIDENTIAL - Value Line...Dollar Tree, Inc., a leading operator of discount variety stores nationwide, is our Select stock of the month. Its stores oper-ate under the names of Dollar

A U G U S T 1 0 , 2 0 1 2 D O L L A R T R E E 1

© 2012, Value Line Publishing LLC. All rights reserved. Factual material is obtained from sources believed to be reliable and is providedwithout warranties of any kind. THE PUBLISHER IS NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR ANY ERRORS OR OMISSIONS HEREIN. This publica-tion is str ictly for subscriber's own, non-commercial, internal use. No part of it may be reproduced, resold, stored or transmitted in anyprinted, electronic or other form, or used for generating or marketing any printed or electronic publication, service or product.

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* Each Supplementary Report is a follow-up to the original recommendation and isnot necessarily sufficient by itself to form the basis for an investment decision. Theoriginal recommendation can be accessed by going to www.valueline.com.

DOLLAR TREE

Time to Take Profits

Shares of retailer Dollar Tree (NASDAQ: DLTR) have advancedconsiderably since we initially recommended them, and are withinrange of their all-time high price. Too, the issue’s high Price-to-Earnings ratio suggests that the shares are now fully valued.

What’s more, we believe that the risk of slowing same store sales isincreasing, and note that competitors are becoming more aggressive.

As such, we believe that the stock’s potential upside is limited, andsuggest that prudent investors take profits at this time.

We recommend that investors SELL their shares of Dollar Tree.

Subscribers that followed our initial recommendation have real-ized a return of more than 130%.

This will be our final report on Dollar Tree.

F I N A L S U P P L E M E N T *