Conferencia LA Dr. David L. Bodde

Entrepreneurship for Urban Mobility

It’s Not Just About the CarDr. David L. Bodde

[email protected]

14 October, 2014

mailto:[email protected]

An Agenda for Today

• Part II: Technology and opportunity

• Part III: Information technology: driver of opportunity

• Part IV: Entrepreneurial Leadership for System-Level innovation

• Part I: Urban mobility challenge

– Growing population in urban centers

– Sustainability pressures

– Globalization

The Urban Mobility Challenge

• Population: the decisive influence

Urban Mobility Challenge: Population

• Beyond headcount, some subtleties…

– Birthrates dropping

• First in developed countries

• Now everywhere…level at 10 billion?

Urban Mobility Challenge: PopulationTrends Toward Urban Living

Aggregate Numbers Do Not Tell the Whole Story:Consider Huntington’s “Tectonic” Plates

Samuel P. Huntington: The Clash of Civilizations

KEY-AC.7

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

North

America +

Western

Europe

Orthodox

Europe

Latin

America

Sinic Hindu Islamic Non-Islamic

Africa

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

11000

12000

13000

Human Development Index

Electric Use

(kWh/yr/Capita)

Tectonic Plate Comparisons

2050 Population/

% Urban

420/

77%

221/

78%750/

75%

1,675/

28%

2,348/

44%1,013/

31%

Net Migration in (M/yr)

1.27 0.76 0.03 0.51 0.48 0.08 0.77 0.22

Net Migration out (M/yr)

U.N. Human

Development

Index

Electricity

Utilization

Per Capita

Fertility Rate

(# of children/woman)

474/

78%

1,997/

36%

Urban Mobility Challenge: Sustainability of the City

• What is it not?– Not lock-in of the present– Not strictly environmental concept

• Eat less red meat• Turn the lights off when leaving the room

• Concepts not big enough to provide for future generations

“It doesn’t get any better than this.”


• So…what is sustainability?

– Meeting the needs of those living today while improving the ability of future generations to meet their needs.

– Justice: a theistic concept

– Fairness: a political concept

– Environmental services: a survival concept

– Economic surplus creation: business/technology concept


• Congestion costs rising

• Study of 498 cities in U.S. in 2011:– 5.5 billion hours wasted time

– 2.9 billion gal. wasted fuel

– Measured cost: $ 121 billion

– Pollutants from idling engines: 56 x 109 lbs. CO2

• Costs in U.S. up 5x since 1982

• Worse elsewhere: Bangkok, Beijing

• Answer is not in the car alone – in the mobility system.

Urban Mobility Challenge:Pressure on Global Environment

The 15 km Shell of Life – 12,750 km diameter

Urban Mobility Challenge:Varies With Global Context

• Developed world:– Aging transportation infrastructure– Constrained public resources for infrastructure

renovation– Limited possibilities to redesign urban centers

• Developing world:– Lack of suitable transportation infrastructure– Consumers do not adopt low emission transportation

modes • Higher cost• Lack of enforcement of government regulations

– Urbanization not informed by long term strategic development

• Driven by speculation

Urban Mobility Challenge:Vehicle Demand Now Global

Source: Smyth GM, 2014

Now…on to technology and opportunity

An Agenda for Today


• Part III: Information Technology driving opportunity

• Part IV. Entrepreneurial Leadership for System-Level innovation

Technology Driven Opportunity

• An era of global technology possibilities

1. Autonomous road vehicles

2. Electric and/or fuel cell road vehicles

3. Fueling infrastructure for the above

4. Internet of things

5. Distributed electric generation: fuel cell, wind, solar

• Each a significant innovation by itself

• Each capital intensive

• Each backed by large, entrepreneurial, and powerful companies

Opportunities Considered Separately1. Autonomous Road Vehicles

• Google - the car company?!?– May 2014 announcement

– Google would build and operate small fleet of autonomous vehicles

• No steering wheel, no controls

• Customer calls the car on mobile device

• 300,000 mi driven, one accident (human error)

• “Disruptive” technology? Maybe…but of whom?

• Changes concept of vehicle– Owned object delivered service

– GM selling cars – Google selling mobility service

Opportunities Considered Separately2. Non-petroleum Vehicles

• Electric (EV) and Fuel Cell Vehicles (FCV)

• Toyota and Honda bet: hybrids and FCV

• Nissan bet: utilitarian EV

• BMW and Tesla bet: driving experience EV

• Key insight: Tesla

– Vehicle must include re-charging infrastructure

– Fast charging: 30 minutes of less

• Charging conversation includes BMW and Nissan

• Disruptive? Somewhat

Toyota FCV – Tokyo Auto Show

Opportunities Considered Separately3. Fueling / Charging Infrastructure

• In U.S. 121,000 public fueling stations for ICE

• 19,000 public charging stations for EV as of 2013– 20% in California

– Few DC Fast Charging• Tesla: ½ re-charge in 20 minutes – realistically, 70-80 miles

• 50 hydrogen fuelling stations (almost all in CA)

• Key issue: must the alternative fuels match petroleum fuels in availability and convenience to reach the mainstream market?

But Isn’t Hydrogen Dangerous?

Ignition Energy of H2, CH

4

and gasoline with Air

Flammability Limits of H2 Are Seven Times Wider Than CH4

Fuel (% Volume)

Automotive Spark Plug

0 20 40 60 80 100

Ign

itio

n E

ne

rgy

(mj)

10

20

50

100

Brush Discharge

Human Spark

0.1

1

1052

0.50.2

0.050.02

Flammability Limits

0.02

Common Static

CH4

H2

Gasoline

Opportunities Considered Separately4. Internet of Things

• Internet of Things (IoT)

– Information and communication links• From any thing to any other

• At any time

• At any location

– Vehicle to guidance/navigation

– Vehicle to safety systems

– Vehicle to fueling infrastructure

• Disruptive? Totally and unpredictably

Opportunities Considered Separately5. Distributed Electric Generation

• Driven by need for fast charging of EV• Locus of electric generation shifts:

– Large scale (1 GW) Local scale (1 MW)

• Works well when:– Fuel already distributed

• Natural gas for stationary fuel cell• Solar photovoltaic

– Saves transmission infrastructure– More robust to natural disaster or terrorists

• Important in EV space– Charging station: power intensive, high power, low energy– Needs to sell electricity back to grid– Promotes “green” image (and reality!)

• Disruptive? Only to electric utilities and only if they fail to compete

Greatest Value in Combination

• Holistic mobility service for people and things• Fleet of autonomous electric vehicles (EV)

– Connected to each other– Available by mobile app– Connected to charging infrastructure

• Optimization of service v. charging time

– Connected to shops

• Drone delivery? DHL testing in Germany, Amazon + Google

• Sustainable value creation– Low cost and efficient– Reduces urban traffic and parking congestion– Saves customer time

The New Competition:Market-Technology Fragmentation Drives Niches

It is a bit freaky with this wireless technology…

An Agenda for Today





– Progress in computing

– Progress in human-machine interface

Information Technology Drives Possibilities:Re-shape Road Mobility

• Information Technology

– Computers• Massively parallel

• New concepts—quantum computing

– Software• New concepts for human interaction

– Telecommunications networks

• “Infrastructure” technology

– Drives advances in a variety of fields

– Medicine, materials, biotech, energy

– And URBAN MOBILITY

Technology Drives Possibilities:Information Technology as Example

• Rate of change is exponential• Computation performance improves long term

Implications - Computers

• Human brain capacity (approximate)…– 100 x 109 neurons times

– 103 connections per neuron times

– 200 “calculations” per second per connection =

– 20 x 1015 calculations per second (cps)

• IBM “Blue Gene” supercomputer– 1 x 1015 cps by 2005

Implications - Computers

• Apply simple curve fitting model, and…

– Computers achieve one human brain capacity (2x1016 cps) for $1000 by 2023…

– One human brain capacity for $.01 by 2037

– One human race capacity for $1000 by 2049

– One human race capacity for $.01 by 2059

Accelerating Change:Some Illustrations

• Doubling time for computer speed (per unit cost)

– 1910 to 1950: three years

– 1950 to 1966: two years

– now: every year

• 90 years: first MIPS/$1000

– Now: add 1 MIPS/$1000 every day

• Affordability

– 1975: world’s fastest supercomputer cost $5 million

– 2011: cost of iPhone 4 with equal performance: $400

Accelerating Change (Continued)

• Miniaturization– Technology

disappears in Hollywood & life

• Electric motors

• Computers

• Phones

– Factor of 6 per linear dimension per decade

Implications:Cheap, fast computing installed on any size device

Yet More ImplicationsHuman Interface

• Human limitations…

– Learning time intensive

– Imperfect (omissions)

– Rapid decay curve (we forget)

– Poor transfer (can’t download)

• CPS capacity not same as “intelligence”

• Combination human + machine intelligence could be formidable

The Software Revolution:Computer as Extension of Human Thought

• Chief barrier: human-machine interface• Graphical User Interface: Apple 1984• IBM Watson today: a cognitive technology

– Reads and understands natural language• puns, synonyms and homonyms, slang and jargon.

– Analyzed unstructured data– Forms hypotheses when asked question– Tests hypotheses against data– Chooses best answer– Learns from success/failure

• Processes information more like human than computer

Current Research

• Primate experiments

– 2003 Duke University monkey moves cursor on screen• Device reads neural signals

• Translates into motion of robot arm

– 2008 University of Pittsburg• Primate learns to feed itself with thought control of robot arm

• Next: human prosthetic devices?

• Then: human thought control of, say, automobile?

• And then: “improved” baseball players?

Implications - Ethics

• Do we create a “master race”?

– Barry Bonds without steroids?

• Who gets these devices and why?

• What will the recipients do with their new powers?

Implications of Technology Revolution:Urban Mobility

• Car can be offered as a service, not as a thing

• Not for all markets

– No “zoom-zoom” experience

• Implications of car-as-service

– Less costly: spreads fixed costs of ownership

– Saves parking congestion

– Mobility for the poor

• But…less cars needed?

A Cautionary Note

• Too easy to extrapolate

Opportunities False Realities

• Much humility required

• Tend to imagine technology opportunities

within the present social constructs

• Some examples…

The Future that

Never

Happened

• Why?!?

• New wine in

the old wineskin

A Future that Never Happened

• failure to consider entire system

A Future that

Never Happened

• Why?

• Misapplied metaphor:

-- jet aircraft

Advertisement, Official Program, Seattle World’s Fair,

1963

An Agenda for Today

• Part I: The Urban Mobility Challenge




Thinking Differently About Opportunity (Perhaps Better)

• What if we consider opportunities holistically?

• Could the combination create even more value?

• My thesis:

– Information technology allows previously singular innovations to combine to offer holistic value

– We need fresh ways of thinking about entrepreneurship and innovation to achieve

– System-level entrepreneurship, Systems Entrepreneurship

• Supplement, not replacement

Entrepreneurship for Urban MobilityAn Illustration

• Say you have invented a really good inductive charger for electric vehicles: singular innovation

– Highly efficient

– Flexible and robust

– Embedded control systems

– Quick charge at stop lights

• Now what?!?

– Who is customer?

– What else do you need to serve customer?


• You need OEM to make compatible vehicles

• What else do you need?

OEM


• You need high power electric supply


OEM

Electric Supply


• You need permission from local authorities


OEM

Electric Supply

Permission from City


• You need a construction/installation contractor


OEM

Electric Supply

Permission from City

Construction


• You need an Innovation Ecosystem

• Partners collaborating continuously to achieve:

– An Innovation Ecosystem

The Central Question

• How can Innovation Ecosystems be built? – As a deliberate act of entrepreneurship?

• Emerging as important question in study of entrepreneurship

• Consider entrepreneur not as:– Small business

– Singular innovator

• But rather as ecosystem leader/manager

Tesla as Ecosystem Business Model

TeslaDesigner-Builder of vehicles

TeslaCharging Infrastructure

PanasonicBattery Factory

GovernmentsRegulations and Subsidies

U.S. FederalCaliforniaNevada

Solar CityInstaller of Solar Energy

Systems

Electric Utilities

Other Ecosystem Business Models

• R&D Consortia

– Tend to be task specific

• Venture forum connecting entrepreneurs and industry incumbents

• Collaborative research organizations

– EPRI

• Need to think differently about entrepreneurship

In Conclusion

• Cannot solve urban mobility challenge with better cars

– Even though better cars plainly desirable

• Think holistically

– Build Innovation Ecosystems to solve complex problems

…a time to cast away stones,

And a time to gather stones together…

Ecclesiastes 3:5

Entrepreneurial BehaviorsDomains of Habitual Thinking

Associative Thinking

Reductionist Thinking

Opportunity Creation•Anticipatory•Problem-finding•Action-oriented process•Outcome: marketplace

Process: solving technologyproblems posed by others

Outcome: effective solutions

Process: creating opportunitiesfrom technology

Outcome: economic growth andsocietal value from technologySolution Finding

•Reaction-driven•Problem solving•Thought-oriented process•Outcome: solution

Conferencia LA Dr. David L. Bodde

Education